[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301117 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...EXTREME SERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355...

VALID 301117Z - 301215Z

REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z.


POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS EVIDENT AS OF 11Z OVER ST TAMMANY
PARISH...SWD OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EWD ALONG I-12/I-10 CORRIDOR PAST SIL AND
INTO PORTIONS HANCOCK/PEARL RIVER COUNTIES MS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IS INDICATED ALONG COAST.  ELEVATED MUCAPE
2000-2500 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS...ROOTED 2-3 KFT AGL. 
MARGINAL EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 30-35 KT ARE DERIVED FROM
SIL VWP AND RUC KINEMATIC PROFILES.

SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY EXTEND EWD FROM WW ACROSS COASTAL
MS COUNTIES AFTER WW EXPIRES...HOWEVER...PRIND POTENTIAL IS TOO
ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW.  AREAS E OF THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE WILL BE MONITORED
FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DIABATIC
HEATING -- FILTERED THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY FROM GULF TSTMS --
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. MORE DISCUSSION ON THAT
REGIME IS FORTHCOMING IN 13Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29588939 29459155 30899155 31028939 30928898 30818862
30708838 30538831 30288838 30218861 30168885 

WWWW