[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261245 
TXZ000-261415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261245Z - 261415Z

ONGOING TSTMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 1237Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TSTMS OVER PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON AND CROCKETT COUNTIES MOVING SEWD
AT 20-30 KTS. 12Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATED THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS
ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. AS
BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMS THIS MORNING...ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AS THEY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL FOR
COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD-PROPAGATION SUGGEST AN
INCREASED LIKLIHOOD FOR DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30890250 31370166 30549953 29359938 28870030 29750151
29930250 

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