[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251856 
NMZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251856Z - 252100Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NCNTRL/NERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  A WW MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS CU FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NCNTRL NM AND
THE RATON MESA.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED AT LEAST UPPER 40S
DEW POINTS WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID
IN TSTM INITIATION.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR S THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NM/CO BORER WILL TRAVEL BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  BUT...PRIND IS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA S OF THE RATON
MESA INTO ECNTRL NM WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  THIS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE
CINH AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER 22-23Z.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ECNTRL NM.  DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF THREAT LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS CLUSTER AND POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A MCS.

..RACY.. 05/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

35000543 35840535 36900521 36900403 36750322 35090323
34210324 34040449 34080538 

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