[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232309 
GAZ000-ALZ000-240115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN AL...CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232309Z - 240115Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 


THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LACK OF MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE HAS MITIGATED
STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU
ALONG SFC FRONT...FROM JUST SOUTH OF BHM TO JUST NORTH OF MCN.
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH. A MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 50 KTS SAMPLED BY THE OKOLONA MS PROFILER
ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCV OVER NRN AL/GA WILL AID IN 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR DESPITE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR MODE MAY DEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

33138393 33058592 32938701 32498691 31788584 31448364
31848151 32528143 33288197 

WWWW