[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232233 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...ERN/S-CENTRAL CO...WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315...

VALID 232233Z - 240000Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/SHIFT EWD FROM ERN PORTIONS
WW 315...ASSOCIATED WITH EWD/SEWD MOTION OF ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING
IN BROKEN BAND FROM PERKINS COUNTY NEB SWWD TO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. 
ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY BEFORE 23Z.  MAIN THREAT E OF WW 315 WILL BE
LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE ALONG WRN EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...INTERSECTING COLD FRONT BETWEEN IML-OGA.  NARROW CORRIDOR
OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
WIDENS ACROSS WRN KS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F.  GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT
OVER REGION...AND ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SFC BASED BUOYANCY FROM
DIABATIC HEATING...2500-3500 MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TSTMS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS.  AMBIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES HAVE SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON
VWP/PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP...HOWEVER STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

37060262 37050551 41880327 41880014 41769995 41449978
41009977 40169947 39299907 38599876 37919934 37290039
37000101 37090259 41860017 

WWWW