[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210437 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-210600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...ERN SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305...

VALID 210437Z - 210600Z

SEVERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO ERN SECTIONS OF SVR TSTM WATCH
305 OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS
ERN MT MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR. EVOLVING MCS MAY
INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIND DAMAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST ACROSS WRN ND
NEXT FEW HOURS.

INCREASING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE EDGE OF HIGH
PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED IN LATEST RUC AND NAM FCSTS AND NOW
APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING FROM POTTER COUNTY TO SANBORN COUNTY IN ERN
SD. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE ZONE OF
STORM INITIATION...EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL. A NEW WATCH MAY BE FORTHCOMING FOR PARTS OF ERN SD SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46920380 48139577 46279573 46079704 43629679 43379910
45590061 44950388 

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