[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210047 
MTZ000-WYZ000-210215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL...ECENTRAL/SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...

VALID 210047Z - 210215Z

SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WW 303.

ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20
KTS FROM GOLDEN VALLEY AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES IN SCENTRAL MT INTO
ECENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY HIGH TEMP/DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE JUST OUT OF
WW 303 ACROSS ECENTRAL MT...BUT AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA REMAINS ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT ATTM. GIVEN LIMITED SVR
POTENTIAL CURRENTLY NE OF WWW 303...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 

FARTHER SOUTH...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NCENTRAL WY PER
SFC ANALYSIS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NRN BIG HORN
MTNS. UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF IDAHO...AND
RECENT TRENDS IN SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT STRONG CONVECTION OVER
NWRN WY/ERN ID SHOULD SURVIVE AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL MT AND
GREATER INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL STG/SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE
NEXT HOUR OVER THE NRN BIG HORN MTNS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN MT AND WW 303.

..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

47630488 47330710 46891049 44980952 45010409 47550406 

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