[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202344 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302...

VALID 202344Z - 210115Z

INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE SEGMENTS SHOWING SOME
BOWING CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS SRN GA WERE MOVING INTO POST SQUALL
LINE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF COASTAL SC MCS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CNTRL GA WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS PER LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA.

FARTHER WEST...COMPLEX ACROSS WCNTRL AL APPEARS TO BE NEAR SQUALL
LINE/SYNOPTIC FRONT INTERSECTION. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED
COINCIDENT WITH THIS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOULD AID IN
MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT SPREAD SWD
ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LASTLY...INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE GULF BREEZE IN THE
SRN PARTS OF WATCH 302. GIVEN DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT BACK SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL PNHDL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY...IN
COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AL LATER...MAY PROMPT
THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH FROM MOBILE BAY EAST ACROSS THE FL PNHDL
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

30218311 30018408 29708532 30018683 30308843 30558910
31498935 33458940 33558955 33938952 33588772 33758705
33938620 33368502 32918424 32538274 32468240 31948263
31668293 

WWWW