[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202255 
MNZ000-NDZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL SD AND SWRN/SCENTRAL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202255Z - 210000Z

ISOLATED STG STORM OVER CARTER COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARDS HARDING COUNTY SD AND BOWMAN
COUNTY ND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN ND TO JUST EAST OF BIS. CURRENT
TRENDS INDICATE THAT A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN MT NEWD TO JUST
EAST OF BIS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED...WITH MLCINH
AROUND 100 J/KG. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CAP
WAS ERODING TO THE EAST OF BIS AND OVER CARTER COUNTY MT. LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED LIFT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48109614 47629718 47009821 46779845 46269810 46189749
46099687 46199618 47259536 47789504 48059527 48129545 

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