[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201839 
MNZ000-NDZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201839Z - 202045Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN ND INTO FAR NWRN MN BETWEEN
20-22Z.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CAVALIER COUNTY SWWD
INTO KIDDER COUNTY. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ACCAS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. AS SFC CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN ND/FAR NWRN MN WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
LOW LEVELS WARM INTO THE MID 80S...AND DEWPTS REMAIN OR MIX INTO THE
50S. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM AND MODERATE
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH MUCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG TO AID IN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LACK OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING/SLIGHT WARMING MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS AND THE NEED FOR
A WW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48979741 48769809 47369970 46940010 46529970 46199884
46539679 47999531 49009510 

WWWW