[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200456 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND
NWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200456Z - 200700Z

WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING TH NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESOHIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM
1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
 ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS
35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCRASING TO
40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS
BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE EWD OER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT
LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTIAN AREA NEXT SEVRAL HOURS.  TEMPERATURES NOW
OER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER NEATH STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS.  MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE
HAIL AND DAMGING WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062
34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317
36508200 36838161