[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200131 
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF IN...KY...WRN WV AND WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...291...292...293...

VALID 200131Z - 200300Z

WE ARE CLOSE TO EXPIRATION OF SEVERAL WATCHES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.  WE ARE THINKING OF REPLACING THE WATCHES ACROSS INDIANA AND
KY INTO TWO WATCHES IN WHICH ONE WILL BE OVER KY INTO WV.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL MOVING
EWD/SEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO NERN KY AND NWRN NC. 
AIR MASS S AND W OF THE LOW/BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG.  ACTIVITY CONTINUES UNDERNEATH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHERE LATEST 850 MB RAOB ANALYSIS SHOW 30-40
KT WSWLY JET INTO ERN KY.  THIS COMBINATION CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
UVVS TO SUSTAIN MCS WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...

39838784 39908701 39748595 39348507 38748512 38558407
38308263 38008164 37488140 36778228 36548272 36348520
36318718 36808804 37728816 38668792 

WWWW