[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192259 
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF IL...SERN MO INTO NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288...

VALID 192259Z - 200030Z

ONLY ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SERN IL AND EXTREME SWRN
IL.  MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FURTHER EAST OVER INDIANA
INTO KY WHERE THERE IS STRONGER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NWD OVER NERN
IL NEAR MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX.

AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2500
J/KG.  LATEST RUC MODELS INDICATES THAT THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE ESE OVER SERN IL.  THEN...REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
AS BOUNDARY FROM NRN ACTIVITY APPROACHES REMAINING INSTABILITY NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...THE WATCH MAY BE REPLACED SHORTLY WITH A
NEW WATCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN IL.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36459113 36909114 37459111 38878948 39958831 40298780
39918755 39038756 38348754 37468851 36248988 35629061
35479080 35509110 

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