[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151712 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-151845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC...SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151712Z - 151845Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PIEDMONT REGION OF CAROLINAS DURING
NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND MOVE/EXPAND NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER ERN
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION...PERHAPS AS FAR NE AS SRN CHESAPEAKE
BAY AREA AROUND HAMPTON ROADS. WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BAND WITH SMALL
POCKETS OF CLEARING -- APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WIDE -- EXTENDING SW-NE
OVER APPALACHIANS AND WRN PIEDMONT FROM GA THROUGH CAROLINAS...THEN
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND DELMARVA.  WHILE SOME SFC HEATING AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER UNDER THIS BAND...MORE
IMMEDIATE POTENTIAL EXISTS INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON
ITS E EDGE.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG THE
LINE MCN...AGS...RDU...AKQ.  AIR MASS THERE AND EWD IS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO 80S F...DEW POINTS LOW-MID
60S...MLCAPE RISING PAST 1000 J/KG...AND LITTLE OR NO CINH.  BECAUSE
OF NEARLY HOMOGENEOUS SWLY SFC WIND DIRECTION...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS
VERY WEAK EXCEPT FOR SOLENOIDAL LIFT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONE.  HOWEVER TSTMS ALSO MAY INITIATE IN HORIZONTAL ROLLS OR SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS E.  WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
IN VERTICAL AS WELL...MINIMIZING HODOGRAPH SIZE AND INDICATING
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM MULTICELLULAR TO LINE
SEGMENTS.  WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA
20 DEG F INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS
GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED OR ACCELERATED THROUGH SUBCLOUD
LAYER TO SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

33378197 33888197 34938090 36217900 36827758 37237640
37047636 36967622 36937601 36507599 36217587 35847578
35437621 35127668 34597726 34337768 33917793 33907839
33657891 33348015 33118155 

WWWW