[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131941 
ILZ000-MOZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...I-44 CORRIDOR OF SWRN TO ERN MO...PORTIONS SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131941Z - 132145Z

GRADUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON INVOF
QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ANALYZED JUST N I-44 FROM NERN OK
THROUGH JLN/STL AREAS INTO SWRN IL.  STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND
OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  ORGANIZATION OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT ATTM BOTH IN SFC ANALYSIS AND LOW CLOUD
TRENDS FROM VIS IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK...THIS
AREA HAS DEEPEST CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND LARGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PROBABILITIES NEXT FEW HOURS.  MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING NEXT 2-3
HOURS...WITH CINH UNDER 50 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT INDICATES
SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH KINEMATICS/BOUNDARY GEOMETRY
INDICATES MORE LINEAR EVOLUTION WITH BOW/LEWP FEATURES EMBEDDED.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH MEAN FLOW
ALIGNED PARALLEL TO BAROCLINIC ZONE...BASED ON SRN MO PROFILER/VWP
DATA AND RUC WINDS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

37349446 38509225 39419016 39368977 39118937 38808959
37599179 36639416 

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