[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131913 
TXZ000-132115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131913Z - 132115Z

RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CB EVIDENT ALONG SFC DRYLINE FROM IT
INTERSECTION WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NERN BREWSTER COUNTY...NEWD
ACROSS ERN PECOS COUNTY.  OTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER S
THROUGH BIG BEND AREA AND NEWD ALONG DRYLINE TO W SJT. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

25-30 DEG F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED -- WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE TO
SFC OF ANY STRONG-SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS GENERATE ALOFT.  RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SMALL HODOGRAPHS...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER
ZONE OF WEAK FLOW IN 450-250 MB LAYER -- INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE...TRENDING TOWARD OUTFLOW DOMINANCE.  ANY
ACTIVITY WHICH DOES NOT GET UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW/COLD POOLS AND
SURVIVES INTO 23-02Z TIME FRAME MAY ACCESS DEEPER/RICHER MOIST LAYER
EVIDENT ATTM FARTHER E.  VIS IMAGERY AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE W
EDGE OF THIS LAYER FROM NEAR JCT TO APPROXIMATELY 40 WNW DRT...NEAR
ERN SLOPES OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE.  SELY ADVECTION MAY SHIFT
THIS PLUME NWWD UP RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD TERRELL COUNTY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29020339 29140356 29180366 29260376 29470377 30010382
30230372 30370373 30490363 30520323 30530265 30660229
31360122 31410092 31170077 30750066 30470087 30020122
29600125 29600129 29690135 29810144 29800156 29770161
29780171 29800180 29820196 29830199 29810205 29820213
29840221 29870227 29840235 29770236 29770251 29740264
29650268 29620275 29480278 29370286 29330290 29260288
29230287 29160297 29080303 28990310 28970318 

WWWW