[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131720 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-131845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / NRN IN / SWRN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131720Z - 131845Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER NRN IL / NRN IN...WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH.  STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SWD INTO WARM
SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.

MEAN SFC TO 6 KM FLOW AROUND 40 KTS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. STORMS WILL QUICKLY
BECOME ELEVATED ONCE THEY GET MORE THAN ABOUT 50 MILES N OF WARM
FRONT.

..JEWELL.. 05/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

42688774 43368647 43328529 42888478 42228477 41018552
40588614 40278728 40068988 41138941 

WWWW