[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121434 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-121630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121434Z - 121630Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH HAIL
POSSIBLE FROM MOST VIGOROUS/PERSISTENT CELLS.  AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS -- INCLUDING W TX MESONET AND SCHOOL DATA -- SHOWS
COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS REGION FASTER THAN PROGGED.  FRONT IS
ANALYZED AT 1415Z FRM WRN WOODS COUNTY OK SWWD ACROSS NWRN ROGER
MILLS COUNTY...THEN FROM CENTRAL WHEELER COUNTY TX WSWWD ACROSS
ARMSTRONG/SWISHER COUNTY LINE TO CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM.  FRONT
SHOULD DECELERATE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK TO
VICINITY PVW AND S-CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY.  ALTHOUGH AREA IS
BENEATH THERMAL RIDGE ANALYZED ON 500 MB CHART...ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL
STABLE LAYER APPEARS TO BE OVERCOME IN BUOYANCY PROFILE IN MODIFIED
12Z AMA RAOB.  COMBINATION OF MEAN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEG C/KM
AND NEARLY SATURATED BASE LAYER BETWEEN 800-850 MB YIELD 2000-3000
J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE.  FORCING APPEARS WEAK WITH LOW-ANGLE
ISENTROPIC SLOPING ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER. HOWEVER...ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DOES PERSIST MAY PRODUCE HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR USING MOST-UNSTABLE LIFTED LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

35759991 35250034 34740101 34370205 34270256 34450290
34660302 35120309 35840267 36790130 37000074 36849970
36459944 

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