[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102305 
SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-110000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/NE AL/NRN...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 102305Z - 110000Z

INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAINS.  ONGOING STORMS OVER MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA APPEAR PRIMARILY FORCED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION.  AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FIRST...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 01-
02Z.

CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO
DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS.  DEVELOPING COLD POOL APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AS IT
APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AREAS.  UNTIL STORMS
DISSIPATE...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT PEAK SIZES SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE.

..KERR.. 05/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

36938600 36438500 35508459 34788484 34258455 33638401
33318321 33318217 33738151 34008137 34418115 34658058
34387991 34047944 32987987 31868180 31898298 32188432
32968432 33758543 34738601 35228567 36168647 

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