[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082302 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-090100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234...

VALID 082302Z - 090100Z

CONTINUE WW.

DRY LINE IS FOCUS FOR SCATTERED ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VICINITY OF DRY
LINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AT BEST.

WITH COLD FRONT ONLY GRADUALLY MERGING INTO DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING...VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING AND STABILIZATION OCCURS TOWARD
02-03Z.  TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...NOW NEAR
HUTCHINSON...TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOCAL INSTABILITY
MAXIMUM...TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA.  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THIS AREA COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 05/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

38529775 39089733 39279703 39919676 40329613 39219635
38599639 38099625 37439650 37119665 36779728 37009788
37849804 

WWWW