[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082005 
IAZ000-082130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082005Z - 082130Z

POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CNTRL IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A
WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SOON.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL IA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND RUC DATA SUGGEST VERY LITTLE CAP REMAINING ACROSS THIS AREA.
MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THROUGH MO AND
INTO SRN IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. CAP APPEARS
WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AS FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS NWD TOWARD IA.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 05/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

40759423 42379483 43349411 43069198 40869227 

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