From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 12:05:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 07:05:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505011215.j41CFrfn018562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011214 FLZ000-011345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011214Z - 011345Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE AND LARGE-SCALE BOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE AROUND FT MEYERS EXTENDING SSWWD TO JEST WEST OF NAPLES FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL WHICH SUGGESTS THE LINE IS ELEVATED. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A FORWARD SPEED OF AROUND 25 KT SUGGEST ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. THE BEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE NRN END OF THE LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOW APEX AS THE LINE MOVES INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBIE THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 05/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25718122 26008169 26438164 27008099 27158025 26618005 25988068 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 07:53:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 02:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505020803.j4283eRa026100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020802 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-021400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...NWRN TX PNHDL...WRN OK PNHDL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020802Z - 021400Z VERY UNUSUAL EARLY MAY SNOWSTORM WAS EVOLVING OVER NERN NM AND PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EARLY TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH DAYBREAK COULD LOCALLY APPROACH 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE RATES IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM LVS ENEWD TO EXTREME NWRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...HEAVY WET SNOW COULD SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AFTER DAYBREAK. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA WAS CONFIRMING MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT OF VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. A WEST-TO-EAST BAND OF INTENSE SLOPED ASCENT WAS OCCURRING IN A SATURATED LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...DIABATIC PROCESSES HAVE PRODUCED A DEEP LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES... ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WET SNOW DEVELOPING EAST WITH TIME. THE COMBINATION OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT...AND WEAK CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION...WAS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL QPF. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.30-0.50 INCHES PER 3 HOURS WERE BEING FCST FROM THE LATEST RUC AND NAM. WHILE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. LATEST RUC AND NAM...AS WELL AS 4KM WRF-NMM...APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT HEAVY WET SNOW COULD DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE TX PNHDL AFTER 12Z. ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 35400159 35390229 35300309 35660508 36500510 36720479 36840438 36880298 36710219 36250146 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 10:21:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 05:21:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505041031.j44AVVom021174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041030 FLZ000-041300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041030Z - 041300Z ISOLATED TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL FL EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. RADAR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS NEAR A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NCNTRL FL EARLY THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT IN VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. A CONTINUATION OF THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY PROMPT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WAS TOPPED BY 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. WHILE STRONGER ASCENT IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE/CLOUD PROCESSES ARE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW INTENSE CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE FOREMOST HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED IF INTENSITY/COVERAGE TRENDS DICTATE. ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27968048 27188118 27458261 28578267 29328264 29998229 30308139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 15:36:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 10:36:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505041546.j44FkQ5i017059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041546 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041545 FLZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219... VALID 041545Z - 041745Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA WWD TO S OF MELBOURNE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S PERSIST NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE REDUCED HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE ANVIL DEBRIS ORIGINATING FROM LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN GULF AS WELL AS THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY CONVECTION. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN GULF TO DECREASE AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS ARE RESULTING IN STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER PARTS OF S CNTRL AND S FL GENERALLY S OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PERSISTENT BUT MODEST SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD...AND STORMS MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27418008 26838119 26568201 27318247 28078282 28868321 29258303 29538245 29798185 29918112 28868061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 16:02:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 11:02:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505041612.j44GCalR007212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041611 FLZ000-041815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041611Z - 041815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN FL BY MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS THINNING AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER SRN FL WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. 12Z RAOB DATA FROM MIAMI AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE OVER S FL IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. MULTICELLS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 26778010 26008019 25308060 25348094 25898129 26158176 26588156 26878101 26968058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 20:14:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 15:14:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505042024.j44KOuuX012021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042024 FLZ000-042230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... VALID 042024Z - 042230Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER S FL GENERALLY NEAR AND S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MIAMI THEN CURVES NWWD TO ABOUT 45 MILES SE OF FORT MYERS. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. MODEST SSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN LIFT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NE OF THIS FEATURE. SWWD BACKBUILDING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE COLD POOL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED...RESULTING IN SWWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26478185 26768131 27678117 28298151 28638135 28738081 27968050 26848006 26048010 25388043 25168098 25598121 25998174 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 22:02:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 17:02:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505042212.j44MCWra012072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042211 TXZ000-042345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042211Z - 042345Z ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM OVER THE DAVIS MTNS WILL MOVE SSEWD TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND N.P AREA OF WRN/SWRN BREWSTER CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WRN DAVIS MTNS THROUGH 00Z. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PROFILER DATA FROM WSM INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS OF WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND CONVERGENT ...AIDED BY A WEAK LEE SFC LOW EAST OF THE DAVIS MTNS. AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE JEFF DAVIS/PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTY INTERSECTION /NEAR FST/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO FAR WRN BREWSTER CO. MODERATE /40-45 KTS/ DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 73/46 AT MRF WILL SUPPORT A THREAT LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELL STRUCTURE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND 01Z...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING SBCINH. ..CROSBIE.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF... 30380309 30790366 30640409 30240401 29670392 29300376 29200358 29280321 29760306 30080301 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 22:45:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 17:45:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505042255.j44MtG0O015935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042254 FLZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... VALID 042254Z - 050000Z SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THROUGH SRN FL...PASSING THROUGH SRN PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF INLAND MONROE COUNTY AT 2245Z. SSWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST PART OF THE TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVELY FORCING UNSTABLE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AND RESULTING IN TSTM INITIATION. STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...REACH MATURITY...THEN DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE METRO PALM BEACH/MIAMI AREAS. LIFE CYCLES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED...BUT BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WS 220 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AFTER SUNSET...OR AFTER THE COOL OUTFLOW MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN FL. ..RACY.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 24938165 26248217 26878101 27058024 27578017 27117972 26307946 25437962 25218057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 16:02:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 11:02:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505051612.j45GCdU8017208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051611 FLZ000-051815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051611Z - 051815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE SERN FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW. TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. WHILE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WHERE SOME SURFACE HEATING IS POSSIBLE...EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER THE GULF WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION. LIMITED INSOLATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...ONCE ESTABLISHED...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN WEAK CAP. SOME INTENSIFICATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD INTO HENDRY COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28528073 27138012 26448008 25548024 25358056 26448121 27588119 28338115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 16:53:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 11:53:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505051703.j45H3v9K029968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051702 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ND...NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051702Z - 051930Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SERN ND/NERN SD AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-20Z. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL SD...SERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A BAND OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE REMOVING THE REMAINING CINH. IN ADDITION...SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MN /NORTH OF THE MSP AREA/. A SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPTS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY AS DEEPER MIXING OFFSETS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS WITH A SFC PARCEL OF LOWER 70S/UPPER 40S INDICATES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG OF SBCAPE. 35 TO 40 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A SVR HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR OUTFLOW GENERATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC BASED CONVECTION INITIATES. THE OVERALL LIMITED NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT TO MORE MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47239273 47439415 46519696 45769877 45219895 44669820 44489783 44539671 44949471 45889284 46289259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 20:20:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 15:20:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505052030.j45KU6RY009357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052029 NVZ000-CAZ000-052200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH DESERTS OF SERN CA AND SWRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052029Z - 052200Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT OF ERN KERN...NRN/WRN SAN BERNARDINO AND SRN INYO COUNTIES OF SERN CA THROUGH 23Z. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE HIGH DESERT OF SWRN NEVADA AFTER 23Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS SERN CA. ONE BAND WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OWENS VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER BAND SUPPORTED BY A COLD POOL MOVING THROUGH THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA/TEHACHAPI MTNS. A WELL DEFINED GUST FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH BFL IN THE LAST HOUR SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE/S LEADING EDGE ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT CROSSES INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE THERMODYNAMICS DOWNWIND OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH DESERT WAS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT UP TO AROUND 600 MB. RECENT FCST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 20Z OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AROUND 750 J/KG OF MUCAPE ABOVE THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT GRADIENT WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE LINES...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...HNX...LOX... 37751689 36541806 35771796 34911815 34821779 34911680 35381630 35931596 36811557 37681606 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 21:03:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 16:03:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505052113.j45LDmxn013225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052113 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052112 NMZ000-TXZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM...FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052112Z - 052245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP/MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM/FAR NRN CHIHUAHUA MX INTO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND MOVE INTO THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH 01Z. OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG AXES UP BOTH THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVER VALLEYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE PER RECENT TRENDS OF WSM PROFILER DATA. PER 20Z RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS COMBINED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ABOVE A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO 700 MB WILL BE SUPPORT OF ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THREAT FOR SVR SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 02Z...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31850645 32140701 32900754 34040722 34650623 34320465 33410416 32250421 31180513 31260577 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 22:00:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 17:00:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505052210.j45MA3oR023447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052209 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID...FAR NERN NV...NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052209Z - 052345Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 02Z. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX ROTATING NWD ACROSS ERN NV. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS VORT MAX HAS ORGANIZED INTO LINES ACROSS NRN UT/FAR NERN NV. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINES WAS DEEPLY MIXED WITH 30-35 F TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LVL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN UT/FAR NERN NV. FARTHER NW...HIGHER DEWPTS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /AROUND 35 KTS/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ACROSS SRN ID. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 42791242 43341479 43111598 42761656 42001699 41581649 41131506 40931318 40781194 41231135 42401130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 17:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 12:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061807.j46I7NZ8031371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061806 UTZ000-WYZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061806Z - 062030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF UT THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. UPPER VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ASCENT SPREADING NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF UT. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF UT...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 30S. DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH UT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO PROMOTE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37251114 38821234 39821374 41181338 41621160 40290955 38990918 37390942 37071003 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 18:05:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 13:05:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061815.j46IFjKs006439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061814 COR AZZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UT THROUGH N CNTRL AND NERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061814Z - 062030Z CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NERN AZ THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF UT INTO N CNTRL AND NERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. UPPER VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ASCENT SPREADING NEWD THROUGH NRN AZ AND MUCH OF UT. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 30S. DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AZ AND UT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO PROMOTE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37411128 38821234 39821374 41181338 41621160 40290955 38990918 36290949 36091070 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 18:47:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 13:47:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061857.j46Ivds4010948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061856 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...EXTREME WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061856Z - 062100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NERN NM AND SERN CO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM INTO SERN CO. RECENT SURFACE AND VWP TRENDS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING NEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER WWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN NM INTO SERN CO...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD INTO WRN NM. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35620492 37020457 38750346 38500220 36750246 35220316 34970433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 19:12:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 14:12:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061922.j46JMDmM031755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061921 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-062115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI/ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061921Z - 062115Z TSTMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS UPPER MI/NERN WI PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW ACROSS CNTRL WI. SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS ERN WI WHERE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU FILED IS BECOMING AGITATED. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR STORMS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEGREES AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX... 46718763 44918915 42599036 42378766 42658707 43428657 46098573 46448616 46748695 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 20:05:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 15:05:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062015.j46KFTqw013908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062014 TXZ000-NMZ000-062215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062014Z - 062215Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL THROUGH SERN NM INTO SW TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A WW. HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 50 CLOSE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN NM AND SWRN TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM INTO SWRN TX WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS JUST N OF MARFA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 30650375 32250469 35220474 35280316 32680294 30890245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 20:32:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 15:32:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062042.j46Kgboh003250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062041 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-062245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/NW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062041Z - 062245Z STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FROM BOTH RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE INDICATED SLIGHT CAP STILL IN PLACE...BUT MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WITH 20Z DATA SUGGEST INHIBITION IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ATTEMPTS AT SFC BASED CONVECTION ARE ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS ATTM...WITH LATEST MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT...THEREFORE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ONCE STORMS BECOME SFC BASED. ..TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41520337 42440409 45520371 45910246 45400162 44650082 43260049 42120032 41710056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 22:33:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 17:33:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062243.j46MhKFt024763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062242 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-070045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...222... VALID 062242Z - 070045Z CONTINUE WWS...NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF WW 222 MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THOUGH EVEN IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ONLY MODERATELY STRONG AT BEST...VEERING WITH HEIGHT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY MOST VIGOROUS STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED. TOWARD THE 07/00-03Z TIME FRAME...CONSOLIDATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON NOSE OF 30 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ..KERR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 43910450 44620345 44510167 43830093 43410040 42759920 41549876 39919885 38470000 37110173 36810335 37680350 39030248 41010287 42390372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 23:15:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 18:15:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062325.j46NPDSH016692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062324 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-070130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NW IA...NE NEB...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062324Z - 070130Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING AND INCREASING INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS BY 01-02Z. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING/ VEERING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS TO PROVIDE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 03-06Z TIME FRAME. IN THE SHORT TERM....ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. ..KERR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44189846 44739774 44669667 44039479 43149402 42429409 42809611 43469783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 00:45:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 19:45:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505070055.j470t9oq032463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070054 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/SRN WI/ERN IA/NRN IL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 070054Z - 070300Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT IS NARROW...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM OSH/DBQ INTO NCNTRL IA. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE HAS SUPPORTED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THUS FAR...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH HAIL. HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DIMINISH. THE MAIN FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND AS THIS FORCING SHIFTS EWD INTO LOWER MI/IN/OH OVERNIGHT...A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE MAINTAINED. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS LOWER MI IS MUCH DRIER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 40S...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 45028305 43468439 42028687 41458776 41879034 42529087 43558975 44678637 45688503 45738299 45308291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 01:46:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 20:46:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505070156.j471ujiQ031703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070156 NEZ000-SDZ000-070330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...SD...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... VALID 070156Z - 070330Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONGEAL/CONSOLIDATE IN THE VICINITY OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IS ONGOING...AND ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY IS ALREADY BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PRIMARY NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN PROCESS OF BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BETWEEN BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS CONTINUES TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW WITHIN MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL MINIMIZE SHEAR...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 05/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR... 42990250 43440075 42649886 41329843 40599940 40870051 41560175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 02:02:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 21:02:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505070212.j472CLV8007275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070211 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SE CO...WRN OK AND TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221... VALID 070211Z - 070315Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS SLOWER TO DIMINISH. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03Z...AS IT SPREADS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS NEAR SURFACE INVERSION DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...AND THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO COOLER/POTENTIALLY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. ..KERR.. 05/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 36020348 37000339 37910248 38300106 37959989 36360045 34250165 33030204 32330318 32500401 33090454 34750361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 02:28:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 May 2005 21:28:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080238.j482c5km016772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080237 MNZ000-NDZ000-080330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225... VALID 080237Z - 080330Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE...ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN ARC OF STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO EXHAUST REMAINING ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z...WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46740135 47640142 48270025 48369839 48049739 47199693 46499676 46279765 46479854 46709911 46430067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 03:58:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 May 2005 22:58:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080408.j4847xbZ021400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080407 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080407 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN...CNTRL/NE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228... VALID 080407Z - 080530Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 228 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 06Z. BRIEF STRONG GUSTS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...EAST OF WW 228. HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN REMAINING WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF OUTFLOW IS PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE...WITH STRONGER BAND OF MID/UPPER FORCING PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ACROSS NORFOLK INTO THE KEARNEY NEB AREA...DIMINISHING TRENDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. FORCING/LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IN CONFLUENCE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL WARMING...BUT ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST PEAK UPDRAFT INTENSITIES MAY BE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...AND CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE KEARNEY/GRAND ISLAND AREAS SHORTLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALL IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CELLS MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORFOLK INTO AREAS SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 46599646 46449487 45549392 44109439 42709592 42469682 41579765 41029886 41209942 42339805 43479699 44839693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 04:32:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 May 2005 23:32:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080442.j484gQWS001532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080441 TXZ000-080615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW..W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227... VALID 080441Z - 080615Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SAN ANGELO AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROGRESSED AWAY FROM DRY LINE...WHICH REMAINS BACKED UP TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. DRY LINE LIKELY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR NEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY DECREASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...AWAY FROM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS...WILL PERSIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION INTO AREAS EAST OF SAN ANGELO/SOUTH OF ABILENE THROUGH 06Z...AS WELL AS WITH NEW ACTIVITY SPREADING BACK INTO AREAS WEST/SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 32280067 32930013 33089900 32749866 31829897 31009965 30450054 30390168 30530267 31020277 31160225 31410178 31610122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 06:13:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 01:13:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080622.j486Ms2Y004175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080622 TXZ000-080715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227... VALID 080622Z - 080715Z ...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT COUNTIES IN SWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MODEST LOW LEVEL SELY INFLOW AND VEERED DEEP LAYER WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION AROUND 850MB. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF PARCEL LIFT...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29840189 30950082 31969841 29609943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 09:50:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 04:50:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081000.j48A00aC019922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080959 TXZ000-081100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229... VALID 080959Z - 081100Z ...AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW... WELL ORGANIZED MINI MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM MASON COUNTY TO KERR COUNTY IN CENTRAL TX. WITHIN THIS CLUSTER AN APPARENT MVC HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN KIMBLE COUNTY...MOVING INTO NWRN GILLESPIE COUNTY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF CURRENT WW WITHIN THE HOUR. ALTHOUGH REFLECTIVITY HAS TAKEN ON A BOW-TYPE STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MVC...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE. LARGE HAIL DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THOUGH AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST. ..DARROW.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29880050 32099836 31829775 29599908 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 12:25:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 07:25:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081235.j48CZdT1002554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081234 TXZ000-081330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... VALID 081234Z - 081330Z ...MCS WILL MOVE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS... A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...TRAILING BACK INTO REAL AND BANDERA COUNTIES WHERE UPSHEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE INTO BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM. IT APPEARS FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL ALLOW MCS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29809958 30869746 32409638 31929523 30149615 29549785 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 13:28:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 08:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081338.j48DcMqn006363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081337 TXZ000-081430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081337Z - 081430Z STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER E CNTRL TX WILL MOVE E OF WW 230 BY 1445Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS DURING THE NEXT HOUR SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...A SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN TX. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR PALESTINE TO NEAR COLLEGE STATION IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 45 KT. STORMS STILL APPEAR ORGANIZED WITH BOW ECHO STRUCTURES AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN TX. MOREOVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS. THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO UNDERGO SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION TO EXTEND THE WATCH FARTHER EAST. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30519519 32379507 32759428 31529391 30439443 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 16:17:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 11:17:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081627.j48GRTBg002978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081626 TXZ000-081730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... VALID 081626Z - 081730Z CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF S CNTRL TX IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MCS EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NEAR LONGVIEW SWWD TO NEAR HONDO. STORMS ARE WEAKENING ALONG ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED SWRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR HONDO. WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY AND IS DELAYING HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT FROM THE S. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR S...AND IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHERE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY EXISTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS NEAR HONDO WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY INTENSIFY WITH TIME. OTHER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CAP WEAKENS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28500013 29709962 30139636 30139522 29319484 28509659 27989916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 17:57:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 12:57:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081807.j48I75JD023013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081806 OKZ000-TXZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK/NW TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION/HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081806Z - 082000Z ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG BOTH DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM NW TX AND ALONG TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TX MCS... FIRST...TOWERING CU HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF SNK ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS ANALYZED VCNTY CDS/SNK/MAF/FST. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME CUMULUS FORMING AS FAR NE AS WICHITA FALLS. ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. JAYTON TX PROFILER SHOWS 30-35 KT OF FLOW NEAR 5KM...AND AREA VAD WIND DATA FROM FREDERICK OK SUPPORTS THIS. DRYLINE WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AND WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTN. SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG TSTM OUTFLOW VCNTY SJT/DLF. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER IN THIS REGION...SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 29179997 29950152 32200187 34900001 34849917 34589866 33079921 31389885 29499871 28729911 28709982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 18:02:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 13:02:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081812.j48IC5sM026295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081810 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-082045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN SD...WRN MN AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081810Z - 082045Z ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BUT...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD SWD THROUGH E CNTRL NEB. A DRY LINE EXISTS E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB. A SUBTLE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MN NWWD INTO SERN ND. A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX IS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL NEB. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EAST...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NERN NEB THROUGH SERN SD ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER N AND E IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SERN ND AND WRN MN AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN SD...SERN ND INTO SWRN MN WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SELY TO THE E OF SURFACE LOW. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS... 42159758 43279841 44899915 46370036 47629902 47609709 45899536 42839625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:02:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:02:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081912.j48JCE6H028576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081911 MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-082015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN KS AND ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081911Z - 082015Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT FROM CNTRL KS NEWD THROUGH ERN NEB. SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE CAP REMAINING AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM NERN KS INTO ERN NEB WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38379825 40209757 41939711 41079577 39389565 38209694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:35:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:35:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081945.j48JjFp5017621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081944 TXZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 231... VALID 081944Z - 082145Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH BEST THREAT IN THE AREA BETWEEN VICTORIA AND HOUSTON NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN TX JUST N OF HOUSTON WWD TO NW OF VICTORIA TO S OF HONDO. MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE FROM VICTORIA TO NEAR HOUSTON. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND JUST S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SLOWLY SWD. VWPS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND HOUSTON SHOW ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR OF 40+ KT WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. BOW ECHO STRUCTURES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STORMS WILL TEND TO BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29430000 29279829 29669741 30099645 30129474 29279487 28519615 28229827 28150008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:57:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:57:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082006.j48K6qfp032635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082005 IAZ000-082130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082005Z - 082130Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL IA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RUC DATA SUGGEST VERY LITTLE CAP REMAINING ACROSS THIS AREA. MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THROUGH MO AND INTO SRN IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. CAP APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS NWD TOWARD IA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40759423 42379483 43349411 43069198 40869227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 20:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 15:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082055.j48KtBLf030325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082054 LAZ000-TXZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX UPPER COASTAL PLAIN/SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082054Z - 082230Z ...AREA BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL... ALTHOUGH MCS COMPLEX IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESS E/SEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN POTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 231...THERE ARE A FEW STORMS WHICH ARE PROPAGATING TO THE E/NE. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW APPROACHING TX HILL COUNTRY IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. AREA VWP DATA SHOW 50 KT OF FLOW NEAR 5KM...SO THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO SRN LA. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31379392 31139274 30619220 29829222 29719269 29589450 30189571 30429576 30729560 31119514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 22:53:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 17:53:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082303.j48N3638014032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082302 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL/ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234... VALID 082302Z - 090100Z CONTINUE WW. DRY LINE IS FOCUS FOR SCATTERED ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VICINITY OF DRY LINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AT BEST. WITH COLD FRONT ONLY GRADUALLY MERGING INTO DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING AND STABILIZATION OCCURS TOWARD 02-03Z. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...NOW NEAR HUTCHINSON...TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOCAL INSTABILITY MAXIMUM...TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38529775 39089733 39279703 39919676 40329613 39219635 38599639 38099625 37439650 37119665 36779728 37009788 37849804 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 23:33:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 18:33:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082343.j48Nhmla002980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082342 TXZ000-090115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082342Z - 090115Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 01Z ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW. WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM SE TX MCS WILL COLLIDE WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IN THE AREA NE THROUGH S OF JCT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...WHERE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY ABOUT 01Z AS THE COOL/RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE STALLED DRYLINE/TROUGH FROM THE E. ..THOMPSON.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... 30699978 31129950 31289897 31109857 30849857 30339908 29529966 29660022 29960039 30359995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 00:05:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 19:05:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090015.j490FR02019317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090014 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/NRN IA/MN/WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090014Z - 090215Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 02Z...BUT NEW WWS MAY NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SOLIDIFY IN CYCLONIC ARC EAST OF BISMARCK ND THROUGH THE SIOUX FALLS SD/OMAHA NEB AREAS. THIS APPEARS TO CORRESPOND WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. JUST EAST OF THIS LINE...NORTH OF FORT DODGE IA INTO THE MANKATO MN AREA...AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH SURFACE COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME PRIMARY THREAT SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF CONVECTION...TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF GRAND FORKS ND/DULUTH MN/LA CROSSE WI...REMAINS WARM AND MOIST. THIS WILL ENHANCE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...CONTRIBUTING TO WIND POTENTIAL. NORTH/EAST OF THIS LINE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN COOLER/COOLING LOW ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS... 47779939 48829719 47719309 45489143 43839152 42829391 41959515 41409626 42939604 44049608 45959814 46379873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 00:44:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 19:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090054.j490shnJ006090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090053 OKZ000-KSZ000-090300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/CNTRL AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234... VALID 090053Z - 090300Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 234. FORCING ON TAIL END OF IMPULSE SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND SOUTH DAKOTA MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NORTH OF MANHATTAN INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF WICHITA. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. EAST OF THE TOPEKA/CHANUTE AREAS...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL AND STABLE. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING EVEN IN AREAS TO THE WEST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. MODELS SUGGEST VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH BASE OF NORTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION ALONG/ EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SOUTH OF WICHITA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED...AND RISK OF LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE ON EASTERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38189737 38489656 37889591 37069554 36389536 35939554 35299654 35559744 36369771 36999777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 02:01:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 21:01:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090211.j492BSYf013825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090210 TXZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237... VALID 090210Z - 090315Z ACROSS WW 237...SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SSE ALONG COASTAL SHORE SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. OVER THE PAST 15-30 MINUTES PRIOR TO 02Z...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA/INFRARED SATELLITE TRENDS FEATURE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WWD ALONG SWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FALFURRIAS/HEBBRONVILLE AREAS. PER MODIFIED 00Z CRP RAOB...AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 80S. THUS SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW 237 IN THE SHORT TERM. ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 237 /ROUGHLY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI W AND NW/...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED. WITH PRIMARY SUPERCELL NOW OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI...AND IF THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND REMAINS WEAK/DISORGANIZED OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WW 237 MAY ULTIMATELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 04Z EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 27549916 27439802 27499737 27889669 26779656 26779661 26589800 26729897 27029927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 02:20:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 21:20:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090230.j492UMtr024550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090229 TXZ000-090330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090229Z - 090330Z MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AT AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SCNTRL TX INTO AIRMASS STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THUS AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT HOUR OR INTO AREAS AROUND/NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO...DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED AMIDST CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F AT 02Z. WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ONGOING MCS...AND THUS ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY. ..GUYER.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30309962 30099889 30349808 30619723 30179670 29539800 29369894 29389935 29839970 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 04:21:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 23:21:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090431.j494VLxu026341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090430 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090430 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NRN/ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090430Z - 090630Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE WITH STRONG STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTH/EAST OF THE WICHITA KS AREA...MAINTAINED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION... BENEATH BASE OF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOUTHWARD SURGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. LOWER/ MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND...AS 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... INHIBITION ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL HOLD FIRM OR STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36759777 37389736 37729676 37709583 37549507 36729461 35419477 34999583 35659659 35879729 36489818 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:10:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:10:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091620.j49GKSKw002738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091619 LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-091745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091619Z - 091745Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SRN LA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS LA...SE AR AND WRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM LA THROUGH ERN AR AND WRN MS. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST CELL LOCATED IN SERN LA WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE ACROSS SE LA...THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE SFC-BASED AS TEMPS HEAT UP AND THE CAP WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE STORMS PATH. THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LA...WRN MS AND FAR SE AR...AS TEMPS HEAT AND INSTABILITY INCREASES TODAY...STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL LA AND SE AR. IF STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE...THE INSTABILITY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32388986 30288949 29338979 29229136 29549331 30759309 32159250 33879151 33459027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:51:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:51:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091701.j49H14N9000853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091700 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091700Z - 091830Z AN ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK NNEWD. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN MN...ECNTRL IA WITH A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO SE MN...SW WI AND IL. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS IS HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS FAR SW WI AND NRN IL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NNEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A VORTICITY MAX OVER SE IA SPREADS STRONG LIFT OVER THE AREA...EVIDENT ON THE RUC ANALYSIS. SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44119079 44188992 43128837 41798756 40878731 40218782 40468899 42058982 43359112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 17:49:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 12:49:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091759.j49Hx6qj014024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091758 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091758Z - 091930Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER FAR NE SD WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT SPREADING NEWD BEHIND A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS SRN MN AND CNTRL IA. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN...CELLS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN WI AND FAR ERN MN WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING OF 7.0 C/KM. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 44069282 44989380 45709549 46439542 46819455 46769297 45739124 44789047 43669064 43399230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 18:13:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 13:13:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091823.j49ING8I032423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091822 CAZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091822Z - 092015Z ...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NRN/CNTRL CA VALLEYS THIS AFTN... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW NOW OVER EXTREME NRN CA NEAR THE ORE BORDER...WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND DATA FROM SACRAMENTO SUGGESTS AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT COUPLED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO GUSTY TSTM WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALTHOUGH BRIEF LOW LEVEL ROTATION OR BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE FROM STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...EKA... 38712054 40472190 40432300 38712298 36412009 36981903 37641922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 19:21:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 14:21:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091931.j49JVMS4021215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091930 IDZ000-MTZ000-092100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091930Z - 092100Z CONVECTION ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN ID WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE ORE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER-FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM ERN ORE...ID AND WRN WY. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT CONTINUING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -18 TO -20C WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... 44561471 44851389 44621289 43751197 42701200 42211236 42031319 42271392 43411467 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 19:54:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 14:54:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092004.j49K4eGU015077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092003 TXZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092003Z - 092200Z ...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN GIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT... TOWERING CUMULUS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND BURNETT PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LTG RECENTLY OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF CONTINUED MIXING...BUT IF STORMS FORM...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT IN THIS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SVR TSTM WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29849925 30340020 31509980 32349929 32379813 31469799 30619805 30229824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 20:22:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 15:22:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092032.j49KWMZ6006689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092031 ILZ000-WIZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239... VALID 092031Z - 092200Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EWD REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP TO THE WEST ACROSS SCNTRL WI AND POSSIBLY NRN IL. A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST WITH ANY NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW 239. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS SE MN AND ERN IA WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED FROM NWRN WI EXTENDING SEWD INTO NRN IL. A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT NEW CELLS ARE INITIATING BACK TO THE WEST WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. THESE NEW CELLS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE AS THE CELLS MOVE NEWD INTO A POCKET OF HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ENE OF I-90. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41218863 41498962 44269050 45039062 45249002 45188862 44608827 41838756 41298764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 21:35:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 16:35:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092145.j49LjMI8032220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092144 MSZ000-LAZ000-092345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA / MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092144Z - 092345Z WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL STORMS WILL BE BELOW WATCH CRITERIA...ISOLATED REPORTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LARGEST HAIL STONES FROM CENTRAL MS SWD INTO ERN LA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...WLY SFC-850 FLOW AND RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MID LEVEL COOL AXIS. WHILE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY WEAK...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH HEIGHT...WITH STRONGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS AVERAGING 35-40 KTS OVER SRN MS / LA. GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY WARM / UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SW...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A REPORT OR TWO UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. ..JEWELL.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30579201 31389190 32529103 34689038 34048915 33638873 32418883 30858907 30358960 29999082 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 22:22:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 17:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092232.j49MWiKM029638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092232 INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WI...CNTRL AND NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239... VALID 092232Z - 092300Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. MUCH...IF NOT ALL... OF 239 MAY BE CLEARED OR CANCELLED AROUND 23Z. FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG HAS LIMITED STRENGTH OF MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...AND PEAK INTENSITIES MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. WITH APPROACH OF SUNSET...AND ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING... THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AS WELL AS WITH ISOLATED STORMS LINGERING NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN AREAS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 45359084 45348848 41198722 41148958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 22:50:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 17:50:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092300.j49N0HvN012823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092259 TXZ000-100100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240... VALID 092259Z - 100100Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND...PERHAPS...WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME EAST OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/WEST OF THE AUSTIN TX AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BASED IN MOIST MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...WITH A SLOW WESTWARD/ NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS ALONG OUTFLOWS. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND INHIBITION INCREASES FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31739852 32349817 33189790 31999723 31159716 30189813 30199882 30369945 30919961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 01:11:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 20:11:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505100121.j4A1LW7r018351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100120 TXZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100120Z - 100315Z CURRENT PLANS ARE TO ALLOW WW 240 TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. NEWEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF BROWNWOOD IS OCCURRING ABOVE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING STORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND EAST OF JUNCTION. NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BECOME BASED ABOVE INVERSION SHORTLY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL COMPLETELY END. DESPITE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAN ANGELO/ABILENE AREAS BY 03-06Z. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY WITH NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION. IF LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ARE REACHED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE ENOUGH CAPE FOR HAIL THREAT...DESPITE WEAKNESS OF MID/UPPER FLOW. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32250138 33889940 33919846 32369709 31209795 30419879 29829966 29820081 30520168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 16:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 11:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101634.j4AGYiQ4015283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101633 GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN AND ERN GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101633Z - 101830Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE AL...SRN GA...ERN GA AND WRN SC. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN GA WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SECONDARY VORT MAX ACROSS MS. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN GA AND PARTS OF SRN AL WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY FROM SWRN GA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MS. AS CELLS INITIATE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVE SEWD...THE MODERATE SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31958181 33598151 34668202 34758295 34348335 33938345 32968356 32148403 32238637 31858709 31118704 30748660 30578425 30818255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 18:26:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 13:26:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101836.j4AIaIBY011679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101835 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-102030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MS...NCNTRL AL...FAR WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101835Z - 102030Z STORM INITIATION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN AL. THE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE STORM COVERAGE CAN BE DETERMINED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN AL WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT OF SFC HEATING...THE CAPPING INVERSION IS GONE. IN ADDITION...THE PROFILER IN NE MS IS SHOWING A WIND SPEED INCREASE AT 6 KM WHICH MIGHT SHOW EVIDENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER-TROUGH. AS CELLS INITIATE FROM THE TOWERING CU EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY...THE SPEED MAX MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND THE ENHANCED SHEAR WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32778851 33398867 34188826 34598605 34418542 33758499 33158511 32788637 32558819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 18:47:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 13:47:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101856.j4AIuoau028036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101855 VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-102030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WV...WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101855Z - 102030Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM CNTRL KY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS OH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. CELLS HAVE INITIATED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS ALONG A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD MOVING TROUGH. CELLS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE MOVING EWD INTO ERN OH...WRN PA AND WV THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 39228222 41148273 41628223 41978094 41687994 40777935 39757926 38527914 37507947 37098056 37068181 38258226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 19:15:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 14:15:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101924.j4AJOshu017309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101923 TXZ000-NMZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101923Z - 102130Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE INITIATION BECOMES EVIDENT...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION. DRYLINE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING AT 19Z FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SSWWD TO NEAR LBB AND INTO THE DAVIS MTNS AREA. RICH GULF MOISTURE PERSISTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS PROGRESSING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND READINGS NEAR 60 AROUND MAF AND BETWEEN LBB/CDS. THE 18Z RUC SHOWS CONTINUED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL CO SWD INTO ERN NM AND FAR SWRN TX. IF THE ISOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS A SSELY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO...MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES INTO ERN TX BY 00Z. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE START OF TOWERING CU ALONG THE DAVIS MTNS AND SCATTERED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES 1500-3000 J/KG/ AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /UP TO 9 C/KM/ SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...MINIMAL CIN...AND SELY SURFACE WINDS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES 22-01Z. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32580097 33530023 34349994 34730015 34950080 34470143 33780222 33120280 32490333 31510395 30900419 30660415 30420386 30380329 30600264 31340185 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 21:53:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 16:53:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102203.j4AM30oa012419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102201 IAZ000-NEZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THRU ERN NEB INTO SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102201Z - 110000Z WW IS LIKELY WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING VICINITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOOPS OF LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING INHIBITION. BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN MOIST LAYER LIFTING OVER FRONT...APPEAR LIKELY TO APPROACH 3000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN KANSAS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER FEATURE ROUNDS CREST OF BROADER-SCALE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER AS EARLY AS 23-00Z TIME FRAME...FROM VICINITY OF DRY LINE FRONT INTERSECTION SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE INTO VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTION SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40640044 41300038 42079879 42249727 42169619 41579526 40919540 40529642 40549761 40419819 40279974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:45:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:45:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102255.j4AMtSBk010195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102254 SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/NE AL/NRN...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102254Z - 110000Z INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. ONGOING STORMS OVER MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEAR PRIMARILY FORCED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FIRST...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 01- 02Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AREAS. UNTIL STORMS DISSIPATE...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT PEAK SIZES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36938600 36438500 35508459 34788484 34258455 33638401 33318321 33318217 33738151 34008137 34418115 34658058 34387991 34047944 32987987 31868180 31898298 32188432 32968432 33758543 34738601 35228567 36168647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:56:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:56:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102306.j4AN6Q8o016103@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102305 SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/NE AL/NRN...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102305Z - 110000Z INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. ONGOING STORMS OVER MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEAR PRIMARILY FORCED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FIRST...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 01- 02Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AREAS. UNTIL STORMS DISSIPATE...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT PEAK SIZES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36938600 36438500 35508459 34788484 34258455 33638401 33318321 33318217 33738151 34008137 34418115 34658058 34387991 34047944 32987987 31868180 31898298 32188432 32968432 33758543 34738601 35228567 36168647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:57:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:57:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102306.j4AN6nvX016354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102306 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX...FAR SERN NM...THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 102306Z - 110030Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 241 AND 242 CONTINUE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX...FAR SERN NM...AND WRN OK. AT 2245Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE DRYLINE. MOST INTENSE/LARGE STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER NEAR HOBBS...WITH PROPAGATIONAL MOTION NNEWD AT 40KT. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND ALSO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /MID 80S TO LOW 90S/ CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE CYCLONIC AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES EWD TOWARD ERN TX THIS EVENING. MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN MAF VICINITY. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT IN SWRN TX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN WW 241 WHICH COVERS THE TX PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WEST OF SOUTH. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F NEAR THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE STORMS MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 30290234 29740249 29540331 29630396 30020447 30710476 32480447 33810369 35280223 37080056 37089903 37029827 34659938 33090088 32410153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:58:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:58:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102307.j4AN7the016874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102305 SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/NE AL/NRN...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102305Z - 110000Z INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. ONGOING STORMS OVER MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEAR PRIMARILY FORCED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FIRST...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 01- 02Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AREAS. UNTIL STORMS DISSIPATE...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT PEAK SIZES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36938600 36438500 35508459 34788484 34258455 33638401 33318321 33318217 33738151 34008137 34418115 34658058 34387991 34047944 32987987 31868180 31898298 32188432 32968432 33758543 34738601 35228567 36168647  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:58:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:58:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102308.j4AN8Aed017453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102306 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX...FAR SERN NM...THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 102306Z - 110030Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 241 AND 242 CONTINUE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX...FAR SERN NM...AND WRN OK. AT 2245Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE DRYLINE. MOST INTENSE/LARGE STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER NEAR HOBBS...WITH PROPAGATIONAL MOTION NNEWD AT 40KT. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND ALSO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /MID 80S TO LOW 90S/ CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE CYCLONIC AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES EWD TOWARD ERN TX THIS EVENING. MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN MAF VICINITY. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT IN SWRN TX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN WW 241 WHICH COVERS THE TX PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WEST OF SOUTH. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F NEAR THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE STORMS MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 30290234 29740249 29540331 29630396 30020447 30710476 32480447 33810369 35280223 37080056 37089903 37029827 34659938 33090088 32410153  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 23:33:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 18:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102343.j4ANh1is007293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102341 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY...WRN NEB...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102341Z - 110045Z WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF DENVER...WHERE MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK AT AROUND 500 J/KG ...BUT WESTERLY ADVECTION OF 50+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE FROM WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHORTLY...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN FAVORABLE DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...AND STRENGTHENING FORCING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING...MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40130494 40570521 41500506 41850432 41700342 41620209 41860017 41799938 40889902 40000009 39770164 39650338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 00:21:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 19:21:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110031.j4B0VGXu002227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110030 IAZ000-ILZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110030Z - 110230Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. BOUNDARY EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF OMAHA THROUGH THE DES MOINES AREA...EASTWARD INTO THE QUAD CITIES. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW EVOLVING ON NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF OMAHA MAY CONTINUE INTO AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF DES MOINES AS EARLY AS 02-03Z. MORE RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD INCREASE AS MODERATE TO STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR AIDS FORWARD PROPAGATION/ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42909420 43289301 43109191 42439071 41289090 41089174 41549325 41799410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:06:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:06:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110215.j4B2Fixi003031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110214 IAZ000-NEZ000-110415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243... VALID 110214Z - 110415Z CONTINUE WW 243. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND INITIAL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ONE...NOW SHIFTING EAST OF GRAND ISLAND...IS OCCURRING NEAR WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO CREST OF BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. SECOND CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF DES MOINES. LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASCENT OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR...WILL SUPPORT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN HAIL THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS RADIATIONAL INVERSION DEEPENS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED IN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO NORTH. DAMAGING WIND THREAT...HOWEVER...COULD INCREASE ACROSS IOWA...AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES...POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41389802 41979719 42669618 43159478 43209317 42909235 42439192 41779226 41379310 41459347 41309524 40759815 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:31:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:31:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110240.j4B2esFl018053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110239 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 110239Z - 110315Z TRENDS FOR SVR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW/S 241 AND 242. THUS BOTH WW/S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF FOR CONDITIONS OVER WW/S 241 AND 242...MUCINH HAS INCREASED TO OVER 100 J/KG. INCREASING SSELY LOW LEVEL JET NOTED ON RECENT PROFILER DATA...FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 40 KTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY AID IN SUSTAINING THE STRONGEST STORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF WW 241 AND NERN PORTION OF WW 242 UNTIL 04Z-05Z. INCREASING CINH TO OVER 200 J/KG AND LIKELY DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR REPLACEMENT WW/S OVER THE REGION. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32250191 32740263 34060176 36990051 37079906 36659874 35759940 34860065 33580138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:45:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:45:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110254.j4B2sudf027360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110254 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-110500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...SRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110254Z - 110500Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION. BAND OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD INTO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER APPEARS TO BE BASED NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL...ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER. NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARD ONTARIO APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE THIS FAR NORTH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...AS INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE-80 CORRIDOR NEXT FEW HOURS...RISK OF HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS LIKELY WILL DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42629716 42919680 43289612 43709449 43629299 43539171 43349070 42669103 42769138 42879275 42929411 42839518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:51:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:51:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110301.j4B31SCd031497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110300 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 110300Z - 110330Z TRENDS FOR SVR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW/S 241 AND 242. THUS BOTH WW/S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF FOR CONDITIONS OVER WW/S 241 AND 242...MUCINH HAS INCREASED TO OVER 100 J/KG. INCREASING SSELY LOW LEVEL JET NOTED ON RECENT PROFILER DATA...FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 40 KTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY AID IN SUSTAINING THE STRONGEST STORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF WW 241 AND NERN PORTION OF WW 242 UNTIL 04Z-05Z. INCREASING CINH TO OVER 200 J/KG AND LIKELY DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR REPLACEMENT WW/S OVER THE REGION. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32250191 32740263 34060176 36990051 37079906 36659874 35759940 34860065 33580138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 04:26:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 23:26:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110436.j4B4a678021582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110435 ILZ000-IAZ000-110600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL/SRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243... VALID 110435Z - 110600Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW SEVERE WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS IOWA BEFORE 06Z. MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST TO COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT...NEAR/EAST OF WAVE/MESO LOW WHICH REMAINS EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA MIGRATING ACROSS THE OMAHA AREA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SEVERAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT HAVE BEEN MEASURED NEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE DES MOINES AREA BY THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME. DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW APPROACHING DES MOINES...IS ALSO SHOWING INCREASING SIGNS OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FAVOR CONTINUATION OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41799583 42649534 42819324 42769163 41439074 41019170 41169362 41149531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 08:02:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 03:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110812.j4B8CQjU016640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110811 ILZ000-IAZ000-111015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110811Z - 111015Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS INTO NWRN IL AROUND 09Z... LEADING EDGE OF EVER BROADENING MCS OVER IA HAS EVOLVED INTO A STRONG LINE SEGMENT ROUGHLY 50 MI IN LENGTH FROM JONES COUNTY TO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE VERY NEAR UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND MAY SOON BEGIN TO TURN A BIT SEWD AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN IL. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION INTO UPSHEAR SIDE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP INTO SERN IA...OTHERWISE SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 35 KT WITH NEAR SEVERE GUSTS ALONG LEADING WIND SHIFT. ALTHOUGH WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPWARD EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 42079145 41968917 40958935 41279186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 13:33:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 08:33:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111343.j4BDhCBg025722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111341 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0841 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN MO...FAR WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111341Z - 111545Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER NE KS...NRN MO AND FAR WRN IL AS ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN KS EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN MO. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE TOP 12Z SOUNDING. A VORTICITY MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CNTRL KS AS SHOWN ON THE RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH NOT YET CERTAIN...INCREASED LIFT AS THE VORTICITY MAX MOVES ACROSS NE KS AND NWRN MO...COULD AID NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL MO AND POSSIBLY NE KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM40/SREF/WRF MODELS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -8 NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38669521 38919722 39259745 40409710 40409519 40759353 41109162 40509099 39809108 39159287 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 15:37:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 10:37:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111546.j4BFks9b030679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111546 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111545 FLZ000-GAZ000-111815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111545Z - 111815Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN GA/NRN AND CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. THREAT EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL WITH LONG-LIVED/STRONG CORES. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW AND A SLGT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE 700-500MB THERMAL LOW ANALYZED ACROSS SERN GA THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS SEWD ALONG THE NERN FL COAST AND INTO THE ADJACENT SERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THIS FEATURE HAS ESTABLISHED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.0 C/KM AT JAX AND CHS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEVELOPING SEABREEZES AND OTHER SMALL-SCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30KT FROM THE NW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS AND MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31218123 31668112 31828126 31858164 31568222 31268278 31098329 30388361 30058359 29738343 29478311 29228280 28118270 27898221 27888104 27988051 29008090 29618116 30388115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 16:45:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 11:45:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111654.j4BGsr0a021548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111654 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-111900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111654Z - 111900Z ONGOING STORMS IN NRN IND AND NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE STORMS STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EWD. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL IL EXTENDING ENEWD INTO FAR NW OH AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WARMING SFC TEMPS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED THE CAPPING INVERSION MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF INDIANAPOLIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL IND INTO FAR NW OH. CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE LOWER TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MULTICELLS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 3 KM AS SHOWN IN THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN INITIATE OR WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 41358349 40918333 40488380 39898507 39188603 39278656 39878699 40188688 41108637 41628555 41728468 41668383 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 18:28:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 13:28:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111837.j4BIbsxZ012227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111837 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111837Z - 112030Z SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS NE MO AND POSSIBLY CNTRL IL. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM NRN MO ACROSS NCNTRL IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FILES SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT. AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP IN NE MO OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT QUESTIONABLE INTO CENTRAL IL WHERE CU FIELD REMAINS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONGER STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF MO AND INTO AT LEAST W-CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 39069273 39479302 40009296 40479231 40629001 40368825 39408817 38988930 38939163 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 19:16:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 14:16:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111925.j4BJPptD019241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111925 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES...MUCH OF WRN TX...AND FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111925Z - 112130Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN A NORTH-SOUTH LINE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THREAT EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA THROUGH EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. AT 19Z...999MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SERN CO WITH AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE WRN OK PANHANDLE...SWD TO NEAR A AMA-LBB-MAF LINE. INSOLATIONAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES AN AXIS OF TOWERING CU ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COINCIDENT AXIS OF CONFLUENT SURFACE WINDS. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...AS 500MB JET ROTATES NEWD FROM NERN NM INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. HOWEVER...SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35KT IN THE PANHANDLES SHOULD STILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALSO...THE 17Z OBSERVED AMA SOUNDING INDICATED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 2" IN DIAMETER...THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND WITH INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET TOWARD 12/00Z...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASED SRH AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34400194 36040182 36860178 37020089 37000021 36899965 36339956 35479959 33399998 32490046 31880110 31740181 32070213 33290233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 19:22:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 14:22:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111932.j4BJW47A023468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111931 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111931Z - 112130Z SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NW KS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED FROM ECNTRL CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE CO-KS STATE-LINE AND SEWD AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 4000 J/KG. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT JUST TO THE NORTH OF GOODLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS FAR NW KS...SW NEB AND ERN CO WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO 75 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TOWERS MAY STRUGGLE WITH THE SHEAR INITIALLY...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR. CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD AND QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. CELLS THAT INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE DRYLINE...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. OTHER CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN CO WHERE STRONG SHEAR EXISTS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 41490107 41320089 40319888 40390065 40290338 40060466 39550474 38680470 38150365 37140207 37160063 38219974 39079861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 19:27:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 14:27:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111937.j4BJbBBO027090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111936 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111936Z - 112130Z SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NW KS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED FROM ECNTRL CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE CO-KS STATE-LINE AND SEWD AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 4000 J/KG. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT JUST TO THE NORTH OF GOODLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS FAR NW KS...SW NEB AND ERN CO WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO 75 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TOWERS MAY STRUGGLE WITH THE SHEAR INITIALLY...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR. CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD AND QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. CELLS THAT INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE DRYLINE...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. OTHER CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN CO WHERE STRONG SHEAR EXISTS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40319888 40390065 40290338 40060466 39550474 38680470 38150365 37140207 37160063 38219974 39079861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:12:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112022.j4BKM8LZ028631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112021 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN OH...CENTRAL IND...AND E-CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... VALID 112021Z - 112215Z WW 246 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN OH AND ERN IND. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IND INTO E-CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS POSE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND MAY NECESSITATE AN ADDITIONAL WATCH. AT 20Z...SCATTERED NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 10S FWA TO 20S LAF TO 30NE MTO. AXIS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY EWD AT 20-25 KT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM 30-35KT...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LONG-LIVED...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SRH IS LIMITED...ALONG WITH LOW MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THUS...PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CELLS IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. FURTHER EAST...ACROSS WW 246...ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH INTO E-CENTRAL IND WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH ERN OH HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL ISOLATED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LASTLY...NORTH WINDS FROM LAKE ERIE HAVE EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN OHIO GIVEN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN PORTION OF WATCH AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40368765 40738625 41158521 41408461 41418401 41108396 40738392 40218441 39578524 39408624 39248693 39138772 39158808 39418862 39778884 40188895 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:32:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:32:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112042.j4BKg3DS012622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112041 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245... VALID 112041Z - 112215Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW 245. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO...A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR KANSAS CITY ALONG AN EAST TO WEST INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG EXIST. IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL THREAT AS STORMS TRACK NEWD INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR. INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS AREA BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38749246 39069387 38979558 39009634 39499652 39989636 40229513 40139295 39729175 39039172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:52:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112101.j4BL1pjL028008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112100 NEZ000-112300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEB...AND FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112100Z - 112300Z THREAT EXISTS FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB AND FAR NERN CO THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #252 HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. AT 2045Z...STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS SRN NEB...NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 K/KG/. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR A PLUME OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PROGRESS NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO TONIGHT. WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH LONGER-LIVED CORES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40799997 40900141 41430227 42480234 42850181 42890026 42739878 42399815 41739761 41199739 40669765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 21:44:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 16:44:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112154.j4BLsApi001357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112153 KSZ000-NEZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL/NEB KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248... VALID 112153Z - 112330Z THROUGH 23Z...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 2137Z...HASTINGS/BLUE HILL NEB REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWING SAGGING SWD AT 5-10 KTS FROM APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MILES N OF CNK TO AROUND 45 SW OF EAR. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AS MUCH AS 50 MILES N OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-250 M2/S2. GIVEN THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS CROSSING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NWD TO JUST S OF I-80. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40689983 40589675 38689676 38799984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 22:04:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 17:04:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112214.j4BMEODP016039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112213 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-112345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 249... VALID 112213Z - 112345Z THROUGH 23Z-00Z...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 2200Z...GLD VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOW 3 WELL-DEFINED SUPERCELLS...35 SW OF IML...45 NW GLD...AND 35 NW OF GLD MOVING 205-210 AT 25-30 KTS. INSPECTION OF RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT INTERSECTION OF HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WITH DRYLINE WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT GLD VWP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2. MOREOVER...A SUBTLE BOUNDARY /POSSIBLY WARM FRONT/ CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM 45 ESE OF AKO TO NEWD TO NEAR MCK WITH LIKELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND N OF THIS FEATURE. THROUGH 23-00Z...IT APPEARS GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD AND INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40220332 40250006 37059926 37000235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 22:16:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 17:16:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112226.j4BMQZ6H023355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112225 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ERN KS AND WRN/CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 245...253... VALID 112225Z - 120030Z CONTINUE WW 245 AND WW 253. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/NERN KS INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2"/HOUR. AT 11/22Z...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND FROM 20NE MHK...THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...AND ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL MO NORTH OF COU. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REINFORCE MESOSCALE COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH 15-25KT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING NEW CELLS WITH VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A SLOW SWD PROPAGATION OF COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH CONVECTIVE STORMS MIGRATING INTO WW 253 ACROSS FAR ERN KS AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MO DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN SWRN MO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE NWD INTO ONGOING STORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF STORMS AT THAT TIME. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT BRIEF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CELLS AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8C/KM/ AND 30KT SFC-6KM SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...WHICH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. LASTLY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRESENT A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS LONG AS SWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS REMAINS SLOW. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 37869176 38159504 38569596 38939660 39559691 39939693 40139641 40099571 40119490 40189362 40099302 39749242 39169190 38919179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 23:15:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 18:15:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112325.j4BNPA5x025104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112324 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PNHDLS INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250... VALID 112324Z - 120100Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE THIS EVENING. AS OF 2313Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE FROM 30SE EHA TO NEAR AMA TO NEAR LBB. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN INHIBITED BY: 1) DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIKELY LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE ENTRAINMENT OF CONVECTIVE MOIST PLUMES ALONG DRYLINE...AND 2) RELATIVELY WEAK OR SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE MOTION TO THE S OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ AND 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 37030183 37039963 33319924 33340135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 23:19:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 18:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112329.j4BNTc0d028152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112328 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL IND...AND CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251... VALID 112328Z - 120130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #251 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IND EWD INTO WRN/W-CENTRAL OH. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL IL WILL YIELD A SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES LATE THIS EVENING. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 20NW CMH TO THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA AND WWD TO 10S SPI. RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL IL OCCURRED AS SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECTED PRE-EXISTING TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 23Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON THE RUC...MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPSTREAM MCS AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CIRCULATION ACROSS NERN MO WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL IL...AND ALSO ACROSS THE WW 251 AREA TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE MAJORITY OF STORMS BECOMING SUB-SEVERE. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 40028944 40078773 40918482 41198340 39888289 38688715 38598811 38718887 38878929 39598998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 23:54:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 18:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120003.j4C03kJX016062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120002 NEZ000-COZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEB INTO FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252... VALID 120002Z - 120130Z THROUGH 02-03Z...EXPECT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW AREA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE N OF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCK EWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AND THEN MORE SEWD TO NEAR CNK AND INTO E-CNTRL KS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PROFILER PLAN VIEW FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING HODOGRAPHS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WHICH IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT...SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE FORCING N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG/N PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-3"/HOUR. TSTMS --AND INHERENT HAIL/HEAVY RAIN THREAT-- SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP EWD OR NEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG EWD-MIGRATING AND INTENSIFYING LLJ AXIS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41810269 41909658 40469656 40400274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 00:52:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 19:52:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120102.j4C12JFm015455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120101 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS INTO FAR SWRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 249... VALID 120101Z - 120200Z POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG DRYLINE. AS OF 0047Z...DDC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER E OF DRYLINE OVER STEVENS...GRANT...KEARNY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN SWRN KS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEEMINGLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DDC. FARTHER TO THE N...GLD REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DUNDY COUNTY NEB SWWD INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO MOVING EWD AT 20 KTS AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE NEAR GLD. THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION BECOME SUSTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DIURNAL BACKING AND INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITHIN COLLAPSING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER E OF DRYLINE ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40200331 40220009 37009923 37020238 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 01:22:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 20:22:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120132.j4C1WaU2031920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120131 TXZ000-NMZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120131Z - 120300Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RETREATING DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX /W OF FST AND INK/ NEWD INTO THE WRN S PLAINS /W OF LBB/ TO NEAR AMA. AIR MASS HAS REMAINED CAPPED TODAY LARGELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LITTLE OR NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TIME HEIGHT TRENDS FROM THE WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX. WEAK RADAR RETURNS NOTED OVER SRN LEA COUNTY NM ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL FROM 12/00Z RUC SUGGEST THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP AND INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW /LIKELY REPLACING WW 250/ MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT TSTMS CAN INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31680376 33500259 34650196 35640184 35870135 35160048 32790113 31070241 30920361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 02:17:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 21:17:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120226.j4C2Qqnn030159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120226 KSZ000-NEZ000-120330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO N-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248...249... VALID 120226Z - 120330Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON TO REPLACE TORNADO WATCHES 248 AND 249. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER PORTIONS OF WRN KANSAS /NAMELY GRANT...KEARNY AND FINNEY COUNTIES/ WITH A TORNADO RECENTLY REPORTED WITH A SUPERCELL OVER GRANT COUNTY. MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC SOUNDING AND PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAP IS INCREASING E OF DRYLINE...THUS ONLY STORMS WITH ESTABLISHED...STRONG MESOCYCLONES MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST PAST 03Z. FARTHER TO THE N...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW IS PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS N-CNTRL KS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SURFACE LOW E OF GLD. A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG SLY 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON TO ACCOMMODATE SEVERE STORMS W AND NW OF GCK...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL THREAT N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N-CNTRL KS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... 37520168 38770150 39530073 40180004 39959888 39009912 37110070 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 02:27:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 21:27:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120237.j4C2b08C003195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120234 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PNHDLS INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250... VALID 120234Z - 120300Z TORNADO WATCH 250 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. DEVELOPING TSTM OVER GAINES COUNTY TX IS BEING MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX SHOULD TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 37040187 37049962 33339926 33340134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 02:49:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 21:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120259.j4C2xP6R015817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120258 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IN/SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120258Z - 120430Z ...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT TREND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING... LEADING EDGE OF MCS EXTENDS FROM MTO TO NEAR BLV...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALREADY WELL SOUTH OF BLV AND ST LOUIS. PROFILER DATA FROM BLOOMFIELD MO SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN THREAT ACROSS SRN IL SHOULD BE FROM GUSTY WINDS...AS SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 30-35 KT GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS IND...FLOW IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS SRN IND. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38288978 39208962 40078739 40078354 38828342 38008574 37818785 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 03:54:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 22:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120405.j4C456up018512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120402 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-120500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB AND NERN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...254... VALID 120402Z - 120500Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD EWD FROM CNTRL INTO ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 252. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W-E LINE OF ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM NE OF MCK TO W OF LNK GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF 252. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SLY LLJ ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER IS LIKELY SUSTAINING ONGOING ACTIVITY. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INFLUX OF 11-12 G/KG AIR BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. AS LLJ SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NEB. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ ALONG WITH TRAINING STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH RATES APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2.5"/HOUR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 252. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 41930124 41949670 41869611 40409559 39709550 39649667 40399674 40430128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 08:35:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 03:35:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120845.j4C8j8BY011974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120844 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-120945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255...256... VALID 120844Z - 120945Z ...STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 256 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION IS PROPAGATING EWD AT ROUGHLY 25 KT ACROSS SCNTRL NEB...NRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED...ALTHOUGH STRONG UPDRAFTS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN ELONGATED BAND OF STORMS. WITH LLJ GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS NERN KS...AND BECOMING MORE FOCUSED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...IT APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THIS REGION. OF PARTICULAR NOTE...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SOON SHIFT AWAY FROM FLOODED PORTIONS OF SCNTRL NEB AS MCS MOVES DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39229886 41699671 40719533 39259690 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 14:26:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 09:26:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121435.j4CEZpsS023591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121434 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-121630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121434Z - 121630Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE FROM MOST VIGOROUS/PERSISTENT CELLS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS -- INCLUDING W TX MESONET AND SCHOOL DATA -- SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS REGION FASTER THAN PROGGED. FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 1415Z FRM WRN WOODS COUNTY OK SWWD ACROSS NWRN ROGER MILLS COUNTY...THEN FROM CENTRAL WHEELER COUNTY TX WSWWD ACROSS ARMSTRONG/SWISHER COUNTY LINE TO CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK TO VICINITY PVW AND S-CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY. ALTHOUGH AREA IS BENEATH THERMAL RIDGE ANALYZED ON 500 MB CHART...ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER APPEARS TO BE OVERCOME IN BUOYANCY PROFILE IN MODIFIED 12Z AMA RAOB. COMBINATION OF MEAN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEG C/KM AND NEARLY SATURATED BASE LAYER BETWEEN 800-850 MB YIELD 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. FORCING APPEARS WEAK WITH LOW-ANGLE ISENTROPIC SLOPING ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES PERSIST MAY PRODUCE HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR USING MOST-UNSTABLE LIFTED LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35759991 35250034 34740101 34370205 34270256 34450290 34660302 35120309 35840267 36790130 37000074 36849970 36459944 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 16:50:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 11:50:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121700.j4CH0CTj031619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121659 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC...AND FAR NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121659Z - 121930Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SRN VA...NC...AND FAR NRN SC. STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MUCH OF SRN VA/NC/NRN SC CONTINUES TO HEAT STRONGLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S/ WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT. DISCUSSION AREA IS SITUATED ON NERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS E-W ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD FROM CENTRAL VA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INITIALLY IN THE LOW 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THIS WILL HELP ESTABLISH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F. SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH STRONGER CORES. MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT AROUND 1500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS /SFC-6KM SHEAR IS NWLY AT 20-30KT/. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SWD OR SEWD MOVING BANDS OF STORMS DURING THEIR EVOLUTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENT FOR INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEPARATE TOWERING CU ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK SEWD. ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..BANACOS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 36747774 36507733 36037707 35557706 34987732 34647765 34567903 34658119 34728271 35008308 35278384 35628319 36078212 36988112 37258054 37317999 36827903 36747828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 17:32:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 12:32:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121741.j4CHfoCG031220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121740 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121740Z - 121915Z SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE POSSIBLE OVER MO VALLEY REGION FROM SERN NEB/SWRN IA ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO THROUGH AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM MKC AREA NWWD ACROSS NERN KS -- BETWEEN TOP-FNB -- TO NEAR BIE. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS DIFFUSE BUT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR STJ WNWWD TO NEAR LNK...THEN NWWD TO SFC LOW S ONL. COLD FRONT ARCS FROM LOW SWD BETWEEN CNK-MHK THEN SSWWD NEAR HUT. PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM INTERSECTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- NEAR BIE -- SWD TO MHK THEN SSWWD TO NEAR END. PRIND AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS INITIALLY IS INVOF OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE INTERSECTION THEN SWD ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE AS FRONT CATCHES UP. CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS BETWEEN SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN NEB TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE NEXT FEW HOURS...CREATING ZONE OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY TOWARD SWRN IA WITH TIME. MESOLOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL...FURTHER ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NARROW PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM LNK AREA NWWD TOWARD SFC LOW IS QUITE CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF BRIEF/LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO FROPA. HEATING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE LIMITED BY COMBINATION OF SLOW-ERODING LOW STRATUS...AND HIGH CLOUDS OF ANVIL ORIGIN ADVECTING NEWD FROM POSTFRONTAL/ELEVATED TSTMS OVER KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39759476 39349498 38759593 39149644 39779665 40919747 41519816 41919748 40689494 40079476 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 18:07:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 13:07:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121817.j4CIHDup026185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121816 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121816Z - 121915Z SEVERE TSTM WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SWRN KS..NE OF WW 257. SFC ANALYSIS AND CLOUD LINE IN VIS IMAGERY INDICATES DECELERATING COLD FRONT WITHIN 30 NM E OF A CNK-SLN-HUT-P28 LINE. MID/UPPER FLOW HAS STRONG COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY. BAND OF TSTMS IS MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD FROM OK/TX PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ALSO...SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AND MOVE NEWD. TSTMS INITIATING ALONG FRONT MAY ATTAIN ORGANIZED MULTICELL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE CELLS/ANVILS MERGE AND ACTIVITY ATTAINS MORE LINEAR CHARACTER WITH SMALL LEWPS/BOWS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT IS HAIL W OF FRONT...WIND AND HAIL ALONG FRONT. BRIEF NON-MESOCYCLONE TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH SFC-BASED FRONTAL TSTMS...BUT MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG INDICATED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPS RISING INTO 80S F AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... 38799717 38279741 37469779 36969856 37000073 39149914 39869864 40069788 39909713 39009725 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 19:13:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 14:13:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121923.j4CJNd64012404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121922 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...SERN NM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257... VALID 121922Z - 122015Z SEVERE HAIL REMAINS PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND SRN PANHANDLE PORTION WW...HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FAVORING LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING...AND PARTIAL WW REPLACEMENT/UPGRADE OF WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. MEANWHILE...SEVERE TSTM WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FARTHER N ACROSS NRN PANHANDLE INTO NW OK. UP TO 3 INCH HAILSTONES REPORTED WITH STORM OVER HALE COUNTY IN PAST HOUR...AND ADDITIONAL VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM WOODS TO NW BECKHAM COUNTY OK...SWWD ACROSS PVW AREA TO EXTREME NE HOCKLEY COUNTY TX...SRN LAMB COUNTY...TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FROM NEAR TX/NM BORDER ATTM AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS LEA COUNTY NM. DRYLINE MAY RETREAT WWD ACROSS ROOSEVELT/LEA COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST W OF FRONT -- WHERE SFC FLOW SHOULD VEER TO MORE ELY COMPONENT AND ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS. PRIND TSTMS OVER HALE COUNTY -- AND ANY FUTURE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT FROM W CDS SWWD TO NEAR NM BORDER -- MAY ROTATE STRONGLY WHILE MOVING ALONG/ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VORTICITY/LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED. MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED IN WARM SECTOR FROM LBB AREA SWD...THOUGH BOTH RUC SOUNDINGS AND JTN PROFILER INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELEVATED MUCAPE 2300 J/KG EVIDENT IN 18Z AMA RAOB...ALONG WITH 50-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ...SUPPORTING CONTINUED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY TSTMS NRN/ERN PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33330174 33310381 36980083 36989871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:05:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:05:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122014.j4CKEme3019760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122013 KSZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... VALID 122013Z - 122145Z SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD THROUGH WW WITH LARGE HAIL REMAINING MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. AREA E OF WW IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW WITH POTENTIAL FOR THREAT TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH EVENING AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NEWD. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN INFLOW SECTOR OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...AND 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE BASED VERY NEAR SFC WITHIN 50-80 NM W OF FRONT. AT 20Z FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM HARPER COUNTY NNEWD AND DRIFTING EWD 10 KT OR LESS. HAIL TO 1.75 INCH REPORTED IN SEDGWICK COUNTY PAST HALF HOUR...AS WELL AS GUSTS 50-55 KT IN MCPHERSON COUNTY.PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD 40-50 KT OUT OF NWRN OK IS EVOLVING INTO BOW ECHO AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AS IT CROSSES RELATIVELY DRY AND DIABATICALLY HEATED SFC AIR MASS JUST BEHIND FRONT. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM PRATT/BARBER COUNTIES NEWD ACROSS HUT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37029751 37009989 39989888 39969644 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:39:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:39:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122049.j4CKnNeD013552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122048 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...NERN KS...SWRN IA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 122048Z - 122215Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT AT 2030Z FROM CASS COUNTY NEB SWD THROUGH POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS THEN SSWWD INTO WW 258. SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO MAY INCREASE NE OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES OVER STABLE SFC AIR BUT REMAINS IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATTER AREA. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO...AND PRONOUNCED CLEARING N OF BOUNDARY OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA. MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB...RUC SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER WINDS FROM LTH ALL INDICATE GREATLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER REGION ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH AS HIGH AS ABOUT 300 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS AROUND 50 KT. DISCRETE STORMS CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES...OTHERWISE DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. EXPECT AIR MASS WITHIN 20-30 NM N OF BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE DESTABILIZING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY MOVES NWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND REMAINDER NERN KS...AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. MEANWHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED BEHIND INITIAL LINE OVER NEB GIVEN NARROW WINDOW OF ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION BEFORE FROPA. STABLE LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA...BUT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... 38599658 41409759 41439510 41439590 42289588 42829510 42839419 42529361 41749329 40919362 40509478 41429509 38599416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:59:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:59:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122109.j4CL9Ua1027802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122108 TXZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122108Z - 122315Z THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOME MORE EVIDENT...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AT 12/21Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TOWERING CU ALONG AN AXIS FROM 50S LBB TO 20W MAF TO 10SW FST COINCIDENT WITH THE DRYLINE. THERE IS ALSO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MTNS. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING IN THIS REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKEST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN LBB AND MAF AND GRADUALLY INCREASES TO THE SOUTH. AS UPPER LOW CENTER OVER CO/WY LIFTS NEWD...SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30KT. THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DESPITE THIS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 C/KM/ AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. ..BANACOS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32140289 33000266 33200254 33210174 33180118 32980102 32320114 31300140 30360177 30150227 30150285 30200340 30460376 31190326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 22:10:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 17:10:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122220.j4CMK18r008237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122218 KSZ000-OKZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... VALID 122218Z - 122315Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 258 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. AS OF 22Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER WOODS COUNTY IN NWRN OK WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING ON SRN FLANK OF BOWING STRUCTURE /CURRENTLY E OF HUT/ SWD INTO SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES. LATEST SHORT TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ALONG SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK AND S-CNTRL/SERN KS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT VWP FROM VANCE AFB AND LAMONT PROFILER INDICATE LARGELY SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL...GRADUALLY VEERING TO SWLY IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND HIGH-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW...LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM STORM SEEDING AND RESULTANT COLD POOL PRODUCTION ALL SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38189773 38049625 37059645 35879739 35779843 36009946 37289876 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 22:58:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 17:58:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122308.j4CN8BwI001067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122307 OKZ000-TXZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS...SRN PNHDL INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260... VALID 122307Z - 130000Z THROUGH 00Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM JUST NE OF PVW TO W OR NW OF CDS. AS OF 2245Z...LBB VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED A TORNADIC SUPERCELL JUST E OF PVW MOVING E AT 15-20 KTS. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD INTO CNTRL HALE COUNTY...AND THEN NEWD THROUGH NRN FLOYD...SERN BRISCOE AND INTO NWRN HALL COUNTY. MODIFICATION OF CURRENT LBB VWP FOR W TX MESONET SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW REGION OF STORM INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2. THROUGH 00Z...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD OR NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FLOYD/SRN BRISCOE...INTO NRN MOTLEY/SRN HALL COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL STORM FARTHER TO THE S OVER LYNN COUNTY HAS INITIATED ON N-S BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER SRN HALE COUNTY SWD INTO WRN LYNN COUNTY. THOUGH THIS STORM WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /PER JAYTON PROFILER AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS/ SUGGEST THAT VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS STORM. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34450296 35539938 33939939 32870294 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 23:29:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 18:29:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122339.j4CNdMKS018039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122337 MOZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 122337Z - 130100Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA FROM NEAR STJ SWD THROUGH TOP AND EVENTUALLY THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AS OF 2322Z...PLEASANT HILL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED EVOLVING LINE SEGMENT/LEWP STRUCTURE FROM ANDREW/BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN NWRN MO SWWD SHAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES IN NERN KS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS EVOLVING NEAR A SURFACE LOW WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES EWD INTO WRN MO WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BOUNDARY-LAYER IS COMPARATIVELY WARMER /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF I-70/ SUGGESTING AN INCREASED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OWING TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER. STRONG REAR INFLOW JET EVIDENT IN PLEASANT HILL BASE VELOCITY DATA OVER WABAUNSEE...SHAWNEE..OSAGE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTIES MAY PROMOTE A FURTHER EWD ACCELERATION OF THIS PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHING THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 01Z. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY WELL CONTINUE E OF CURRENT WW...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... 39919472 40299459 40439365 39689268 38819273 38539313 38569396 38689445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 00:47:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 19:47:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130057.j4D0vUDr029097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130056 OKZ000-TXZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260... VALID 130056Z - 130200Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS OF 0040Z...LBB RADAR DATA SHOW SEVERAL SUPERCELLS IN PROGRESS FROM NEAR EVW ENEWD TO W OF CDS AS WELL AS TO THE E OF LBB OVER CROSBY COUNTY. LBB VWP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 WHEN MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS. GIVEN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1 KM AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OWING TO INCREASED COLD POOL PRODUCTION/OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AS WELL AS INCREASING CAP AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34660227 35549937 33909938 33050239 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 01:17:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 20:17:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130127.j4D1RDbT013558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130126 MOZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 130126Z - 130200Z THOUGH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST BEYOND 02Z...TORNADO WATCH 259 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. TRAILING COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH QUASI-LINEAR MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN MO HAS PUSHED S OF REMAINING PORTION OF WW AREA. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED TSTMS N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE WW TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... 39189676 39759449 38619416 38599660 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 02:27:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 21:27:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130236.j4D2aohT019438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130235 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... VALID 130235Z - 130400Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. AS OF 0220Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS N OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KIOWA COUNTY IN S-CNTRL KS NEWD THROUGH RENO AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES IN CNTRL KS. AN ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM WAS LOCATED OVER DONLEY COUNTY IN THE TX PNHDL. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG NOSE OF BROAD SLY LLJ...AND VERY NEAR 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ RESIDES N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE TX PNHDL...DECREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG NEAR ONGOING STORMS OVER CNTRL KS. THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEWD INTO CNTRL KS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38559844 38539532 34839910 34860207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 02:52:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 21:52:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130301.j4D31f0K000620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130300 MOZ000-ILZ000-130430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO POTENTIALLY INTO W-CNTRL/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262... VALID 130300Z - 130430Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MO...POTENTIALLY SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND SWRN IL OVERNIGHT. AS OF 0250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS COLD POOL OVER RANDOLPH...HOWARD AND COOPER COUNTIES IN MO. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT INTERACTION OF COLD POOL WITH WRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM N OF COU THROUGH STL INTO SRN IL /S OF MVN/ MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION. THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD AWAY FROM STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 262 IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38309294 39479280 40349267 40289193 39689065 38709046 37969090 37899221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 03:40:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 22:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130350.j4D3o2Ux025992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130348 OKZ000-TXZ000-130445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130348Z - 130445Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH 05-06Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0333Z...FREDRICK OK RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CIRCULATION/VORTICITY CENTER OVER BECKHAM COUNTY WITH TRAILING TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL FROM HARMON COUNTY WSWWD INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE SUSTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER SWRN OK WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM FREDRICK OK REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK STORM-RELATIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH ALREADY ORGANIZING COLD POOL SHOULD PROMOTE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 34589915 35139864 35319811 35259754 34729708 34009741 33899864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 05:55:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 00:55:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130605.j4D65M2M025430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130604 OKZ000-130730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265... VALID 130604Z - 130730Z ...INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WITH BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKLAHOMA CITY /TWIN LAKES/ RADAR SHOWS BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM BLAINE TO CADDO COUNTIES...AND A SECONDARY BOW WHICH IS PASSING OVER KIOWA/TILLMAN AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN SW OK. SO FAR...NUMEROUS MEASURED WINDS OF 50-60 MPH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH AT CLINTON OK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUST FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH HINTON/FORT COBB/ALTUS...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WIND IS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WIND PROFILER DATA FROM PURCELL/LAMONT AND OKC RADAR SUGGEST 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 0-1KM...SO CERTAINLY STRONG TSTM WIND GUSTS ARE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO OUTRUN INITIAL BOW ECHO IN CADDO CO...IT APPEARS THIS MCS HAS BECOME ORGANIZED AND WILL AFFECT CNTRL PORTIONS OF OK...INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA...WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34229824 34259862 35089876 35889836 36419797 36479740 36219724 35689722 35009745 34469761 34189780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 06:03:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 01:03:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130613.j4D6DRWx028850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130612 OKZ000-TXZ000-130715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX PANHANDLE/NW TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 263... VALID 130612Z - 130715Z ...NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE TX PANHANDLE/NW TX SHORTLY... SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR OVER THE PANHANDLE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ELEVATED CORES AND STORM RELATIVE VELOCITY DATA ALSO SHOW ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... 34119970 33550132 33880195 34320181 34520082 34640013 34579966 34439958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 09:00:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 04:00:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130909.j4D99p4V006542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130904 OKZ000-TXZ000-131000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265... VALID 130904Z - 131000Z SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 265. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13/10Z. ARCING / SUB-SEVERE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED E OF WW...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION NOW OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW. STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS REMAIN W OF WW OVER WRN N TX / WITHIN WW 266...AND MAY MOVE INTO WW 265 IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NONETHELESS...STORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ABOVE SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS SRN OK. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY ALLOW WW 265 TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34559955 34809831 34689750 34169768 34159960  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 17:12:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 12:12:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131721.j4DHLmsS026679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131720 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-131845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / NRN IN / SWRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131720Z - 131845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER NRN IL / NRN IN...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SWD INTO WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z. MEAN SFC TO 6 KM FLOW AROUND 40 KTS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED ONCE THEY GET MORE THAN ABOUT 50 MILES N OF WARM FRONT. ..JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42688774 43368647 43328529 42888478 42228477 41018552 40588614 40278728 40068988 41138941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 17:33:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 12:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131742.j4DHgilR008306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131741 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN INTO NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131741Z - 131945Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...DESPITE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33559137 35249063 37728905 39488662 38688467 35128821 33478916 33069048 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 18:43:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 13:43:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131853.j4DIrZiT021769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131852 TXZ000-OKZ000-132015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131852Z - 132015Z TORNADO WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN AN HOUR. TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED BY 21Z FROM CDS AREA WWD TO INVOF CAPROCK. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE RAPIDLY INTO SUPERCELL CHARACTER WITH VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL LIKELY. DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...REINFORCED LOCALLY BY STORM-SCALE AND/OR MESOBETA SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. SFC MESOANALYSIS -- INCLUDING W TX AND OK MESONET DATA -- INDICATES PRONOUNCED MESOLOW CENTRAL/NERN FLOYD COUNTY AT 18Z. ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO IS EVIDENT IN CU PATHS ON ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY. DRYLINE EXTENDS DUE S THROUGH BORDEN COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLIGHTLY EWD TOWARD W EDGE OF DEEPER CU FIELD -- NOW EVIDENT FROM SRN BRISCOE/MOTLEY COUNTIES SWD THROUGH COKE COUNTY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ALONG EDGE OF SLOWLY ERODING LOW CLOUD DECK -- CURVES FROM MAJOR COUNTY OK SWWD ACROSS HARMON COUNTY...THEN OVER TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SRN DONLEY TO OCHILTREE COUNTY TX. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AND LIFTING NWD THROUGH CDS AREA..SOON TO MERGE WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN MOST PRONOUNCED FROM JUST NE-E OF MESOLOW EWD INTO EXTREME SWRN OK...COINCIDENT WITH SFC MOIST AXIS CONTAINING MID/UPPER 60S F DEW POINTS. THESE FACTORS COMBINE WITH DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- EVIDENT IN 18Z AMA RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- TO YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING CINH. CONVERGENCE MAX W CDS INDICATES REGION FROM CDS TOWARD PALO DURO CANYON SWD TO MESOLOW IS MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOONEST INITIATION...THOUGH OTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EWD OR NWD ALONG OUTFLOW/HEATING BOUNDARIES INTO SW OK AND ERN TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE SOME MINOR WEAKNESSES EVIDENT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW...100-150 0-1 KM SRH AND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ENHANCED HAIL GENERATION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 33710105 34180114 35250136 35770132 36160089 36070056 35800040 35250044 34910002 34759946 34479896 34049888 33669929 33379996 33270099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 19:05:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 14:05:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131914.j4DJEoXW003890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131913 TXZ000-132115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131913Z - 132115Z RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CB EVIDENT ALONG SFC DRYLINE FROM IT INTERSECTION WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NERN BREWSTER COUNTY...NEWD ACROSS ERN PECOS COUNTY. OTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER S THROUGH BIG BEND AREA AND NEWD ALONG DRYLINE TO W SJT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 25-30 DEG F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED -- WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF ANY STRONG-SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS GENERATE ALOFT. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SMALL HODOGRAPHS...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER ZONE OF WEAK FLOW IN 450-250 MB LAYER -- INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE...TRENDING TOWARD OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DOES NOT GET UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW/COLD POOLS AND SURVIVES INTO 23-02Z TIME FRAME MAY ACCESS DEEPER/RICHER MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ATTM FARTHER E. VIS IMAGERY AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE W EDGE OF THIS LAYER FROM NEAR JCT TO APPROXIMATELY 40 WNW DRT...NEAR ERN SLOPES OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE. SELY ADVECTION MAY SHIFT THIS PLUME NWWD UP RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD TERRELL COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29020339 29140356 29180366 29260376 29470377 30010382 30230372 30370373 30490363 30520323 30530265 30660229 31360122 31410092 31170077 30750066 30470087 30020122 29600125 29600129 29690135 29810144 29800156 29770161 29780171 29800180 29820196 29830199 29810205 29820213 29840221 29870227 29840235 29770236 29770251 29740264 29650268 29620275 29480278 29370286 29330290 29260288 29230287 29160297 29080303 28990310 28970318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 19:19:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 14:19:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131929.j4DJTLM3014299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131928 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OH / SERN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131928Z - 132030Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SERN MI INTO NWRN OH. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE AREAS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MESOCYCLONE FORMATION WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE TOO FAR N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ELEVATED. ..JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 38998525 39938263 43098194 42928422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 19:32:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 14:32:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131942.j4DJg9iB022703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131941 ILZ000-MOZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...I-44 CORRIDOR OF SWRN TO ERN MO...PORTIONS SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131941Z - 132145Z GRADUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON INVOF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ANALYZED JUST N I-44 FROM NERN OK THROUGH JLN/STL AREAS INTO SWRN IL. STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZATION OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT ATTM BOTH IN SFC ANALYSIS AND LOW CLOUD TRENDS FROM VIS IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK...THIS AREA HAS DEEPEST CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND LARGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROBABILITIES NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH CINH UNDER 50 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH KINEMATICS/BOUNDARY GEOMETRY INDICATES MORE LINEAR EVOLUTION WITH BOW/LEWP FEATURES EMBEDDED. DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH MEAN FLOW ALIGNED PARALLEL TO BAROCLINIC ZONE...BASED ON SRN MO PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC WINDS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... 37349446 38509225 39419016 39368977 39118937 38808959 37599179 36639416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 00:16:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 May 2005 19:16:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505150025.j4F0PR8t011253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150024 TXZ000-NMZ000-150200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX / SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... VALID 150024Z - 150200Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW...BUT A FEW STORMS WERE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATCH INTO ERN NM. IN BETWEEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD STILL PRESENT EXCEPT OVER FAR WRN TX NEAR EPZ. WHILE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS IS LEAST BETWEEN MAF AND EPZ...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NEARBY STORMS. 00Z MAF SOUNDING SHOWS NO INHIBITION USING MIXED LAYER PARCEL AND IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL...SUGGESTING THIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29200065 30080009 31030072 32020182 32540250 33400351 34570511 34340554 32820563 31440598 30540487 29730458 28930318 29760255 29840195 29740143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 17:04:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 12:04:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505151713.j4FHDV1V025825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151712 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-151845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC...SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151712Z - 151845Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PIEDMONT REGION OF CAROLINAS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND MOVE/EXPAND NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER ERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION...PERHAPS AS FAR NE AS SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA AROUND HAMPTON ROADS. WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BAND WITH SMALL POCKETS OF CLEARING -- APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WIDE -- EXTENDING SW-NE OVER APPALACHIANS AND WRN PIEDMONT FROM GA THROUGH CAROLINAS...THEN NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND DELMARVA. WHILE SOME SFC HEATING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER UNDER THIS BAND...MORE IMMEDIATE POTENTIAL EXISTS INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON ITS E EDGE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG THE LINE MCN...AGS...RDU...AKQ. AIR MASS THERE AND EWD IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO 80S F...DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S...MLCAPE RISING PAST 1000 J/KG...AND LITTLE OR NO CINH. BECAUSE OF NEARLY HOMOGENEOUS SWLY SFC WIND DIRECTION...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS VERY WEAK EXCEPT FOR SOLENOIDAL LIFT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. HOWEVER TSTMS ALSO MAY INITIATE IN HORIZONTAL ROLLS OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS E. WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN VERTICAL AS WELL...MINIMIZING HODOGRAPH SIZE AND INDICATING PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM MULTICELLULAR TO LINE SEGMENTS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20 DEG F INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED OR ACCELERATED THROUGH SUBCLOUD LAYER TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33378197 33888197 34938090 36217900 36827758 37237640 37047636 36967622 36937601 36507599 36217587 35847578 35437621 35127668 34597726 34337768 33917793 33907839 33657891 33348015 33118155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 17:05:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 12:05:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505151715.j4FHF9DF026626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151714 TXZ000-151915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX / HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151714Z - 151915Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY. STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ON STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON SWRN FLANK INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S FROM SAT INTO DRT AND MINOR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WELL ESTABLISHED 2KM DEEP COLD POOL PER AREA VWPS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY. GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS...STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITHIN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF... 29810236 30040187 30090145 30240007 30089969 29349845 28479919 28420032 29140073 29420106 29740145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 17:15:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 12:15:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505151725.j4FHPKvT032378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151724 TXZ000-151930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX / HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151724Z - 151930Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY. STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ON STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON SWRN FLANK INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S FROM SAT INTO DRT AND MINOR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WELL ESTABLISHED 2KM DEEP COLD POOL PER AREA VWPS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY. GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS...STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITHIN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF... 29810236 30040187 30090145 30240007 30089969 29349845 28479919 28420032 29140073 29420106 29740145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 20:11:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 15:11:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505152022.j4FKMRgK000840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152021 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NC...SERN VA...CENTRAL/ERN SC...EXTREME E-CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279... VALID 152021Z - 152145Z SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN SC/NC E OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. PEAK HEATING PERIOD FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS TO MAINTAIN BOTH WIND AND HAIL THREAT AT SFC. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS OVER PORTIONS SERN VA ARE IN A BROKEN BAND FROM CHARLES CITY AREA SWWD TO NEAR DAN. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS WW OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER SFC TEMPS BUT STILL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AD LOWER LCL THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER SE. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK BECAUSE OF SMALL DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH HEIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENHANCED BY BAY/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND TSTM OUTFLOWS ON A LOCAL SCALE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32758140 34488239 37757543 36037442 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 20:42:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 15:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505152053.j4FKrKAp018559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152052 NMZ000-TXZ000-152215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN NM / FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152052Z - 152215Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NM WITH 25-30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW BEING REPORTED BY AREA PROFILERS AND VADS. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. CAP IS HOLDING OVER FAR ERN / SERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE FROM SAN MIGUEL COUNTY SWD TOWARD EPZ...WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 35 KTS AND MODERATE CAPE. BUNKERS STORM MOTION ESTIMATES FROM EPZ TCU PROFILER AS WELL AS FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SWD MOTIONS FOR RIGHT MOVERS...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT STORM MOTIONS OVER SAN MIGUEL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING...THE AIR MASS S AND E OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...ALLOWING FOR MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN AND SERN NM WHERE IT IS CAPPED AS OF 20Z. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31780770 32560746 33640690 34840609 35430551 35450401 34590351 33250336 32450372 32000474 31400595 31770656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 23:48:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 18:48:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505152359.j4FNxW9b003634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152358 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-160100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279... VALID 152358Z - 160100Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO. WW 279 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z..BUT TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE WITH TIME...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NERN NC SWWD THROUGH ERN SC. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE SHOWED A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY INTERCEPTED THE SEA BREEZE...BUT RECENT TRENDS SHOW AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG EXIST EAST OF THE LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE...TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33327974 32828129 33238176 33668093 33997994 35907804 36727753 37547567 37257516 36237456 35757508 34987689 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 00:37:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 19:37:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505160048.j4G0mTht025472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160047 TXZ000-NMZ000-160145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279... VALID 160047Z - 160145Z 00Z EPZ SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH LARGE AMOUNT OF DCAPE SUGGESTING SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE WEAK WINDS ALOFT. ENVIRONMENT FARTHER E HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. GIVEN FAST FORWARD SPEED OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT HAS FORMED...EXPECT WIND THREAT TO TRANSLATE SEWD INTO SRN AND SERN AREAS OF WW. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30620420 30630744 32290709 32910617 33250535 33840454 34780422 34750321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 18:20:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 13:20:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505161830.j4GIUpq6009607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161829 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-162100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEVADA..NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161829Z - 162100Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF THE GRT BASIN. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SATELLITE AND VWP DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW EWD ADVANCE...AND AMPLIFICATION...OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN CA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR BOI SSW TO NEAR TPH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING E AT 25-30 KTS AS UPPER SYSTEM ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ATTM OVER CNTRL NV. THIS FEATURE IS CENTERED NEAR INTERSECTION OF MAIN COLD FRONT WITH A SHALLOWER...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ENE TO NEAR SLC. THE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NRN UT OR FAR SRN ID. FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF NV COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. THESE FACTORS...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY BACK AND BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WITH 500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS. AS A RESULT...SETUP MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 42531567 41251656 39741665 38461635 39021440 39731311 40801173 43031169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 21:02:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 16:02:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505162113.j4GLD8lH000487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162111 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD / WRN NEB / NWRN KS / EXTREME NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162111Z - 162315Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELDS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO NERN CO / NWRN KS. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING E OF DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE...CONTINUED HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AREA WIND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE SLY SURFACE FLOW...PRODUCING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS. DEEPLY MIXED AND LOW RH BOUNDARY LAYERS INDICATE STRONG EVAPORATION POTENTIAL WITH LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO INGEST HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41620315 43190362 44270435 44820450 44920398 44320172 43680104 42500021 41030031 40160021 39289993 38810079 38770202 39980257 40720274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 21:38:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 16:38:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505162149.j4GLnaqX026354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162147 WYZ000-IDZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID THROUGH WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162147Z - 162315Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN ID NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MIN. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ID SWD THROUGH ERN NV. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER SERN ID ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH SERN ID THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...MSO... 42111047 42381371 44331315 44421078 43291010 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 23:51:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 18:51:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505170001.j4H01ldp009797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170000 UTZ000-NVZ000-170130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281... VALID 170000Z - 170130Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH LINE OF FORCED STORMS THOUGH SWRN...CNTRL AND PARTS OF NRN UT NEXT FEW HOURS. NRN PART OF THE LINE WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 281 AND INTO SWRN WY BY 0130Z...BUT A NEW WW EAST OF 281 IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FORCED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST E OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA SWWD TO W OF MILFORD. THE NRN PART OF THE LINE HAS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND CONTINUES EAST AT AROUND 35-40 KT WHILE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER SWRN UT. STRONG FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE COLD POOL...COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN STORMS INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS FROM 35-40F AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF... 38081408 40201288 41611264 41891137 38751117 38091234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 01:29:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 20:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505170140.j4H1efxs001115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170139 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-170245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID THROUGH EXTREME WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... VALID 170139Z - 170245Z LINE OF STORMS OVER SERN ID WILL CROSS INTO WRN WY BY 02Z. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. WW 282 MIGHT BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z. A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES EAST OVER SERN ID. INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE AND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET WILL MAINTAIN STRONG FORCING FOR THE LINE TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS FARTHER SW. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 42051138 43301132 43961148 44081074 43881022 42841023 42031066 41931113 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 15:01:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 10:01:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505171512.j4HFCfBs011534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171510 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171510 SCZ000-GAZ000-171745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171510Z - 171745Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SERN GA. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS. PARTS OF THE REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM AND DIURNAL HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN SC LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK INHIBITION AND FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN 15-20KT MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WILL ALL LEND SUPPORT FOR A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31478108 31008176 30828360 31208439 31388447 31858428 32338386 32808298 33488216 34278164 34628118 34688066 34667986 33807879 33187907 32527994 32048069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 17:44:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 12:44:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505171754.j4HHsvKe013823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171753 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT....WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171753Z - 172000Z THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE INTENSE SUPERCELL WAS ALREADY TRACKING NWD THROUGH PHILLIPS COUNTY MT WITHIN LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM NRN/CNTRL WY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WARMING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NEAR SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL BE SITUATED IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TOPPED BY 50-60KT SLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. INITIAL STORMS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTIC WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44990448 45790632 46550742 48400763 48870715 48930394 48670184 45430007 43670002 43260213 44620397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 18:20:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 13:20:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505171830.j4HIUpRP010110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171829 NEZ000-SDZ000-172030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171829Z - 172030Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM INITIATION ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL SD TO WRN NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST LBF SOUNDING SUGGESTS STRONG CAP IS HOLDING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT RAPID WARMING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FROM NWRN KS ACROSS WRN NEB. WHEN THE LBF SOUNDINGS IS ADJUSTED WITH THIS WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IT APPEARS THAT REMAINING INHIBITION COULD BE ELIMINATED THROUGH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL QPF FROM THE RUC/NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL WRF. THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND BUILD FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NEB IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE GIVEN LINEAR FORCING ON THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30KT WILL SUPPORT CELL/UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND SOME CHANCE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 43200211 43629999 42069889 40069827 40080188 41220199 43070222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 22:19:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 17:19:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505172229.j4HMTx83008754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172229 NEZ000-SDZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD THROUGH NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283... VALID 172229Z - 172300Z WW 283 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO SD...NB AND SWD TO THE KS BORDER. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40159954 41200067 43050074 44420215 45770104 44979928 40559779 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 23:10:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 18:10:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505172321.j4HNLfNr004935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172320 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-180045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND THROUGH NW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... VALID 172320Z - 180045Z THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES FROM ERN MT THROUGH SWRN ND INTO NWRN SD...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 284 MIGHT BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SERN MT INTO NWRN SD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN MT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN SD WITH AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY FROM NERN MT NWWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM ERN MT SEWD THROUGH WRN ND AND NWRN SD IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH WY WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO ND WITHIN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS S OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT... DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. GIVEN ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CHARACTER OF THE ONGOING STORMS...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45410377 46830534 48750620 49000399 48380309 46580239 45390253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 01:09:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 20:09:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505180120.j4I1K4Iv004463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180119 SDZ000-NEZ000-180315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SD THROUGH CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 180119Z - 180315Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST THROUGH SD AND NEB. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEB PORTION OF THE LINE. PORTION OF LINE NOW OVER SRN SD WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF WW 285 BY 02Z...BUT ANOTHER WW EAST OF SD PORTION OF 285 IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NWRN SD SEWD INTO S CNTRL SD THEN SWD INTO EXTREME S CNTRL NEB NEAR THE KS BORDER. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT AND IS PASSING THROUGH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. FARTHER EAST...THE 00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWS PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND MODEST CAPE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEB. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE LINE BEGINS MOVING EAST OF THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40439928 42949894 43899950 45370088 45670048 45199893 44209739 42729705 40329836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 03:30:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 22:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505180341.j4I3fShM022937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180340 KSZ000-NEZ000-180445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 180340Z - 180445Z SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE FROM ERN SD THROUGH ERN NEB AND INTO N CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY RAIN FROM N CNTRL KS NEWD INTO S CNTRL NEB...BUT SOME HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW 285 WILL EXPIRE AT 05Z AND ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF SQUALL LINE FROM NERN NEB THROUGH SD HAS UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND AS THE LEADING GUST FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INTO A MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER SW...SOME BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE S CNTRL NEB PORTION OF THE LINE WHERE STRONG LIFT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SLY 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ALONG THIS PART OF THE LINE HAVE BECOME ORIENTED SW-NE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MID-UPPER FLOW. THIS SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..DIAL.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889935 40729859 41629755 40049725 39059978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 05:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 00:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505180558.j4I5wtVt019785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180558 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB AND WEST CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180558Z - 180700Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL IA THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW. SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS...LOCATED ABOUT 30 E OF OLU...ARE MOVING NEWD AT 35-40 KT. STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG SURFACE FRONT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL WAVE AS STRONGER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WING TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL LIFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 700-850 MB IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER NEWD AWAY FROM STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY WEAKENS. ..IMY.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41299657 41539696 42129707 42529670 42529608 42099568 41909555 41519556 41339599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 17:12:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 12:12:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181723.j4IHNFmE010804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181722 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-181945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/SD...SWRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181722Z - 181945Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PARTS OF ND AND SD...AS WELL AS SRN MN...AND PERHAPS NRN IA...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WARMING AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NWRN IA INTO WRN MN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE WRN MN BORDER NWD TO THE RED RIVER VLY. LIFT WITHIN THIS ZONE...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO SRN MN SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HIGH-BASED/POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD/SERN ND AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL SPREADS EAST ACROSS THIS REGION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIMITATIONS TO OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF GREATER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NARROW WARM SECTOR FROM SERN ND INTO SWRN MN COULD PROMOTE MORE INTENSE CELLS. GIVEN SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A GREATER THREAT OF HAIL/WIND AND A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 42339403 43209641 44419678 45499790 46889816 47139621 46709414 43919263 42939300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 18:19:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 13:19:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181830.j4IIUKK8027721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181829 VAZ000-NCZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181829Z - 182030Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/EVOLVE ALONG LEE OF APPALACHIANS WITH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 70S AT 18Z AMIDST GENEROUS INSOLATION. MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH NOW EXISTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 750-1250 J/KG SBCAPE. REGION REMAINS ON PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL W/NW FLOW...THUS 30-35 KTS /RELATIVELY HIGHER ACROSS VA/ WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS MID/LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 38137937 38037762 37507694 35837737 35597899 36028057 36398051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 18:40:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 13:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181851.j4IIp6sb008937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181850 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181850Z - 182045Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHERN OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM MHK-P28-GAG. SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE RETARDED DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY WEST OF BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THESE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK CAP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL OCCUR NEAR SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEAR P28. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36979915 38169758 39319661 39259527 38759448 37919462 36169634 35849725 35759845 36209914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 19:32:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 14:32:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181943.j4IJhJGC014154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181942 FLZ000-GAZ000-182145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PENINSULA/ERN PANHANDLE OF FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181942Z - 182145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PENINSULA/ERN PANHANDLE OF FL THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN FL PENINSULA ATTM...WITH TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS BISECTING NRN FL...UPPER COOL POCKET -- AROUND -12 C AT 500 MB PER 12Z TBW/TLH/JAX AND 15Z XMR RAOBS -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE REMAINS MARGINAL AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...GREATER SHEAR PROFILES EXIST PROGRESSIVELY SWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL OWING TO BOTH STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. AS TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE WATCH. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29848209 29668208 29158169 25948056 25598108 27278224 28248239 29088266 30228370 30288471 30768467 30898247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 23:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 18:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505182333.j4INXaq3015231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182332 KSZ000-NEZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL KS...N CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 182332Z - 190130Z STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NWRN MO INTO NERN KS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS KS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES JUST BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING FURTHER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS 25-30 KT ACROSS OK INTO SERN KS WHILE UPPER FLOW IS NWLY AT 45-55 KT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN CURRENT DATA...STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP SWWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. GIVEN WLY TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WOULD ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF LINE/BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889935 40729859 41629755 40049725 39059978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 23:40:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 18:40:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505182351.j4INpSSt022606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182350 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 182350Z - 190045Z WW 286 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH REMAINDER OF EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHORT TERM ACROSS SE ND/WRN MN. CURRENT REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN STEVENS/SWIFT COUNTIES MINNESOTA APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITH POTENTIAL STRETCHING INVOF SFC OCCLUSION/REGION OF 100-125 J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE. WHILE SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG OCCLUSION ACROSS FAR WRN MN OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLD GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46709772 47179517 43369408 43239491 44129488 44239555 44689563 44669633 45959685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 00:46:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 19:46:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505190056.j4J0uiPq019904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190055 COR MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL KS...N CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 190055Z - 190130Z CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NWRN MO INTO NERN KS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS KS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES JUST BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING FURTHER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS 25-30 KT ACROSS OK INTO SERN KS WHILE UPPER FLOW IS NWLY AT 45-55 KT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN CURRENT DATA...STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP SWWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. GIVEN WLY TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WOULD ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF LINE/BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35959813 35939958 37259865 39349704 39309393 37169562 35959662 35969753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 01:54:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 20:54:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505190204.j4J24pC6017871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190204 KSZ000-OKZ000-190300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL KS INTO NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 190204Z - 190300Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS NERN KS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS KS... TO NEAR 2500 J/KG OVER WRN OK. THE STORMS HAVE MOSTLY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND HAIL PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN OK. WE WILL BE COORDINATING TO REPLACE WW287 WITH A NEW WATCH THAT WILL BE ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN KS WSWWD INTO N CENTRAL OK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35959961 36349935 37099872 37649765 38489644 38939537 38849480 38339465 37159512 36479562 36039625 35939663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 11:49:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 06:49:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191159.j4JBxbKn007610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191158 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IL AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191158Z - 191330Z ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ONGOING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO W-CENTRAL/SWRN IND. BROADER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. AT 1145Z...SOME INCREASE IN CELL INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR SRN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MIGRATING EWD AT 35KT ACROSS S-CENTRAL IL. CURRENT MOTION BRINGS MOST INTENSE STORMS TO THE IL/IND BORDER NEAR HUF AT 19/14Z. STORMS ARE PRESENTLY ELEVATED ABOVE COOL MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER. INFLOW IS FROM THE SW...WHERE ST. LOUIS VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AND A 30-35KT LOW-LEVEL JET. MUCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA...WITH MODERATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH GREATER THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE CELLS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM CURRENT ELEVATED T-STORMS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SUCH ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN MO...SRN IL...INTO SWRN IND. ..BANACOS.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39349037 39838976 39978885 39848785 39548720 39128686 38558670 38218698 37918736 37758797 37688833 37658883 37718942 37848981 38119017 38419046 38819056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 15:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 10:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191545.j4JFjgBF005677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191544 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/IL/IND...NRN AR...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191544Z - 191815Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/SERN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD TO SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC HEATING EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES INHIBITION. FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE NEAR/ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN AR/SRN MO...NEWD TO SCNTRL IL. THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER SERN IL AND THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS SRN OH. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FURTHER SERVE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY HIGH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS MID LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY ACROSS IA/NRN IL...SPREADS SEWD TOWARD THE MO BOOTHEEL AND LWR OH VLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AS WELL AS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND SHEAR...A WATCH OR WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 38259102 39008903 39938481 38688419 36778578 36798817 36548932 35759424 37219367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 17:32:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 12:32:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191742.j4JHgfrr017594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191741 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-191945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191741Z - 191945Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL. WW MAY BE NEEDED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW JUST EAST OF MSP...WITH SERIES OF BOUNDARIES ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/WI INTO LOW. ONE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FRM TO ALO...THEN CURVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WI. AN INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SOON. AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F AND MLCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHERN IL. THESE FACTORS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..HART.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42349126 43518960 43388836 42558784 41608790 41048886 40899005 40869123 41539181 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 18:05:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 13:05:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191816.j4JIGdWk005865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191815 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...OH...ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191815Z - 192015Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN IND...NERN KY AND SRN OH. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. PERSISTENT UPDRAFT ACROSS PARKE COUNTY IN WCNTRL IND HAS BEEN ANCHORED ALONG STRONG WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA AS INDICATED ON 18Z ILX RAOB...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SEWD PROPAGATION OF CELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY FURTHER SUPPORT STORM ROTATION/PERSISTENCE. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ON AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN KY AND SWRN OH. WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY...DIURNAL TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE AREA ON AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT... 38238284 38598514 38648739 39388746 39788742 40638742 40208546 39898334 39388231 38538255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 18:34:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 13:34:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191845.j4JIj2HL025761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191844 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC INTO NE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191844Z - 192015Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND SPREAD E/SE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT REGION OF VA/NC/SC...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED. VIS IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/SE INVOF OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN LEE OF APPALACHIANS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT CORRIDOR. WITH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAVING ALREADY WARMED IN THE LOWER 80S...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. RUC POINT SOUNDINGS/LOCAL VADS SUGGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS VA...DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KTS INTO NC/SC. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECTED LIMITED ORGANIZATION/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... 37647986 37257814 34847917 33348133 33288284 34488323 35058249 36168085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:16:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:16:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192027.j4JKRF1V031220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 INZ000-KYZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291... VALID 192026Z - 192200Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN INDIANA REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CONTINUING TO TRACK ESEWD ALONG STRONG WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE INCREASED FROM MARTIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES TO BROWN COUNTY. CELL MERGERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS BROWN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES SHORTLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD INTO BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY. THIS VIGOROUS CONVECTION...OCCURRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 38738503 38778740 39718736 40048603 39958504 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:26:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192037.j4JKbBm1005975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192036 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN IL...SERN MO...NERN AR...EXTREME WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 192036Z - 192200Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN WATCH 288 OVER THE PAST HOUR. MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM ECNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN MO. INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE WAS VERY STRONG AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40508756 38368757 35379099 37439105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:28:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:28:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192039.j4JKdT5V008175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 INZ000-KYZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291... VALID 192026Z - 192200Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN INDIANA REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CONTINUING TO TRACK ESEWD ALONG STRONG WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE INCREASED FROM MARTIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES TO BROWN COUNTY. CELL MERGERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS BROWN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES SHORTLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD INTO BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY. THIS VIGOROUS CONVECTION...OCCURRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 38738503 38778740 39718736 40048603 39958504  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:31:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:31:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192042.j4JKg7Bv009701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192041 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 192041Z - 192145Z STORM CLUSTERS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 289 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38468720 38158336 35248576 35498984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:41:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:41:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192051.j4JKptKi015547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192050 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-192215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290... VALID 192050Z - 192215Z WW 290 CONTINUES ACROSS FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/FAR SRN WI UNTIL 02Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WATCH INTO NRN IN. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO ALSO PERSIST ACROSS SRN WI NORTH OF WW 290. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 290 IN SHORT TERM...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING AS PRIMARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVES SEWD ALONG I-88 CORRIDOR. FURTHER EAST...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER PAST HALF HOUR FEATURE DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH ONGOING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NW IND...WHERE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO WORKING NEWD 1) AHEAD OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AND 2) AROUND PERIPHERY OF CNTRL IND ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN DESTABILIZATION/INCREASING DYNAMIC ASCENT AND/OR POTENTIAL FOR NRN IL TSTMS TO PROPAGATE INTO NRN IN. ACROSS SRN WI...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG FRONTAL OCCLUSION. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...ENHANCED STRETCHING INVOF FRONTAL OCCLUSION/REGION OF 100 J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD THREAT FOR ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41969203 42309085 42539015 43139031 43709070 43978963 43918879 43278833 42838781 41898760 41528586 40278589 40538691 40469043 40289188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:46:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:46:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192056.j4JKuwee019411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192036 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN IL...SERN MO...NERN AR...EXTREME WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 192036Z - 192200Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN WATCH 288 OVER THE PAST HOUR. MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM ECNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN MO. INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE WAS VERY STRONG AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40508756 38368757 35379099 37439105  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192103.j4JL3kxv024159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192041 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 192041Z - 192145Z STORM CLUSTERS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 289 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38468720 38158336 35248576 35498984  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 21:04:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 16:04:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192115.j4JLFVWm032462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192050 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-192215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290... VALID 192050Z - 192215Z WW 290 CONTINUES ACROSS FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/FAR SRN WI UNTIL 02Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WATCH INTO NRN IN. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO ALSO PERSIST ACROSS SRN WI NORTH OF WW 290. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 290 IN SHORT TERM...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING AS PRIMARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVES SEWD ALONG I-88 CORRIDOR. FURTHER EAST...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER PAST HALF HOUR FEATURE DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH ONGOING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NW IND...WHERE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO WORKING NEWD 1) AHEAD OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AND 2) AROUND PERIPHERY OF CNTRL IND ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN DESTABILIZATION/INCREASING DYNAMIC ASCENT AND/OR POTENTIAL FOR NRN IL TSTMS TO PROPAGATE INTO NRN IN. ACROSS SRN WI...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG FRONTAL OCCLUSION. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...ENHANCED STRETCHING INVOF FRONTAL OCCLUSION/REGION OF 100 J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD THREAT FOR ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41969203 42309085 42539015 43139031 43709070 43978963 43918879 43278833 42838781 41898760 41528586 40278589 40538691 40469043 40289188  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 22:49:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 17:49:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192259.j4JMxtbA029960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192259 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF IL...SERN MO INTO NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 192259Z - 200030Z ONLY ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SERN IL AND EXTREME SWRN IL. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FURTHER EAST OVER INDIANA INTO KY WHERE THERE IS STRONGER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NWD OVER NERN IL NEAR MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. LATEST RUC MODELS INDICATES THAT THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE ESE OVER SERN IL. THEN...REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS BOUNDARY FROM NRN ACTIVITY APPROACHES REMAINING INSTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...THE WATCH MAY BE REPLACED SHORTLY WITH A NEW WATCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN IL. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36459113 36909114 37459111 38878948 39958831 40298780 39918755 39038756 38348754 37468851 36248988 35629061 35479080 35509110 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 23:04:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 18:04:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192314.j4JNEd8u004987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192313 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-200115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF INDIANA...KY AND TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...292... VALID 192313Z - 200115Z MUCH OF THE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS MERGERS IN THE VICINITY OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN IL SEWD INTO EXTREME SWRN AND S CENTRAL OH. ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE 30-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ENHANCING WARM AIR THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE AREA FROM SERN IL AND INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MOVE INTO AREA OF 2000-2500 J/KG INSTABILITY. COMBINATION OF STRONG NNWLY UPPER FLOW AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS POISED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS... STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35548999 36078953 36888879 37638804 38338732 38438719 38438641 38418583 38408474 38508326 38288307 37548377 36848425 36188483 35618540 35488567 35478728 35458824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 23:19:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 18:19:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192330.j4JNUBVK012351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192329 KYZ000-INZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO N CENTRAL KY S OF THE LUK/CVG AREA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291... VALID 192329Z - 200100Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRAINING ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ALONG OHIO RIVER BASIN AT THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS POISED OVER THE AREA WITH 30-35 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDERNEATH NNWLY 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AREA THAT MAY STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH CARROLL...OWEN AND GRANT COUNTIES IN KY...THEN SWD IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CONTINUED CELL MERGERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 38708738 39228740 39418737 39488665 39388582 39238508 38938463 38568444 38508491 38538538 38618613 38668739 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 23:20:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 18:20:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192331.j4JNV0Do012610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192330 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/FAR SRN WI/NRN IL INTO NW IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290...293... VALID 192330Z - 200100Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 290 -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE IL -- AND WW 293 ACROSS NW IND THROUGH 02Z. ONGOING WELL ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS NRN IL SOUTH OF I-80...WITH CONTINUATION OF SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 290/WW 293...ESPECIALLY FROM NE IL INTO NW IND. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE CELL -- WITH HISTORY OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- OVER IROQUOIS AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NEWTON/BENTON/WARREN COUNTIES OF NW IND GIVEN STRONG WLY/MODERATE INSTABILITY FEED AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS FAR ERN IA/FAR SRN WI/NW IL IN THE SHORT TERM GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41969203 42309085 42539015 43139031 43709070 43978963 43918879 43278833 42838781 41898760 41528586 40278589 40538691 40469043 40289188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 01:21:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 20:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200132.j4K1WNAH006815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200131 VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF IN...KY...WRN WV AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...291...292...293... VALID 200131Z - 200300Z WE ARE CLOSE TO EXPIRATION OF SEVERAL WATCHES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE ARE THINKING OF REPLACING THE WATCHES ACROSS INDIANA AND KY INTO TWO WATCHES IN WHICH ONE WILL BE OVER KY INTO WV. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL MOVING EWD/SEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO NERN KY AND NWRN NC. AIR MASS S AND W OF THE LOW/BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. ACTIVITY CONTINUES UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHERE LATEST 850 MB RAOB ANALYSIS SHOW 30-40 KT WSWLY JET INTO ERN KY. THIS COMBINATION CONTINUES TO ENHANCE UVVS TO SUSTAIN MCS WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX... 39838784 39908701 39748595 39348507 38748512 38558407 38308263 38008164 37488140 36778228 36548272 36348520 36318718 36808804 37728816 38668792 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 03:14:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 22:14:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200324.j4K3Oouk025140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200324 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SERN MO INTO CENTRAL AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 294... VALID 200324Z - 200530Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA OVER E CENTRAL AND SERN MO FOR ADDITIONAL WW. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS E CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL. NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL MO IS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT EXTENDS EWD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/BOUNDARY. MLCAPE IS 1500-2000 J/KG AND RUC SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5C/KM. FOR EXAMPLE...THE RUC SOUNDING FOR KFAM INDICATES WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WITH AN MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH BRN SHEAR OF 53 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING LIFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE WW AREA AND NEAR AND S OF THE STL AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 37229012 37259050 37239101 37349162 37569220 38169248 38689172 39099039 39239005 39598941 39898882 39988821 40078788 39168789 38658786 38058784 37658785 37228782 37168868 37208989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:46:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:46:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200457.j4K4vR3x027471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200456 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200456Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING TH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESOHIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCRASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTIAN AREA NEXT SEVRAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER NEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:48:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200458.j4K4wxiJ027713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200458 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200458Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESO HIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCREASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OVER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OVER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:50:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:50:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200500.j4K50rHN028335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200456 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200456Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING TH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESOHIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCRASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTIAN AREA NEXT SEVRAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER NEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:50:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:50:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200501.j4K51Jx3028723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200458 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200458Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESO HIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCREASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OVER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OVER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 09:09:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 04:09:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200920.j4K9KAhA028129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200918 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY SEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...299... VALID 200918Z - 201015Z THROUGH 10-11Z...APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. TO THE NW...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 297. THIS WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER REACH OF THE OH RIVER. MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION ATTM APPEARS TO BE ENE-WSW ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM W OF BWG TO S OF PAH MOVING SEWD AT 35-40 KTS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER MIDDLE TN REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THOUGH STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD...POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY 1) INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LINE SEWD THROUGH BNA TO N OF CHA...AS WELL AS 2) BY LOCALLY STRONGER 850 MB CONVERGENCE/WAA --PER REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS--. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY DEVELOPING TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER WW 297 IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND THIS WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT 11Z. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX... 37689083 38378698 35208256 33488348 35738810 36249085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 09:43:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 04:43:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200953.j4K9rn7w011042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200952 SCZ000-GAZ000-201045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SC MIDLANDS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200952Z - 201045Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS S OF WW 298 AND SE OF WW 299. THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM APPROXIMATELY 30 S OF SPA TO 25 NE OF MCN WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 20-30 KTS. REGIONAL VWPS AND PRESSURE FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN /PER 09Z MESOANALYSIS/ BOTH SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN IN PLACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE-INVERSION AND ROOTED WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS ABOVE WSWLY LLJ SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED FORWARD MOTION /AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL/ OWING TO PROPAGATION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33148356 33988262 34238187 34188022 33348028 32438182 32138300 32588366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 12:32:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 07:32:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201242.j4KCgxWD025745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201242 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-201415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN/NERN AL INTO NRN GA AND NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 298...299... VALID 201242Z - 201415Z THROUGH 14-15Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN/NERN AL INTO NWRN GA. LINE OF TSTMS HAS RE-INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER MIDDLE TN INTO N-CNTRL AL...WITH LEADING EDGE OF MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FROM MARION COUNTY TN SWWD INTO LIMESTONE COUNTY IN N-CNTRL AL. BOTH 12Z BMX AND FFC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ ATOP A NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION. BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS /PER MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY/ SUGGEST THAT DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD ELIMINATE THIS INVERSION BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME. GIVEN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WITH APPROACH OF OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CORRIDOR FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY SEWD ACROSS NRN GA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING ACROSS NRN INTO CNTRL AL...POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. FARTHER TO THE E OVER NRN SC INTO WRN/CNTRL NC...AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE STABLE AND WW 298 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH... 34658721 35708799 36738744 36508508 34808273 34938078 34937974 33878050 34068310 33408361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 17:06:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 12:06:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201716.j4KHGolx003864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201716 SCZ000-GAZ000-201745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201716Z - 201745Z NEW WW WILL ISSUED EAST OF WW 300 INTO PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. SURFACE HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITHIN MOIST AXIS HAS RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVER ERN GA INTO SRN SC. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...IT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. STRONG STORMS OVER ERN PORTION OF WW 300 /EAST CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 33908223 34098179 33188001 32578032 31658099 31178137 31328225 31668216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 17:45:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 12:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201756.j4KHuBGH001184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201755 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO MUCH OF MS/AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300... VALID 201755Z - 201900Z NEW WW/S ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MS AND EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. ONGOING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 300 WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD FROM SRN MIDDLE TN TO NRN/CENTRAL GA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PRIMARY LOW OVER MIDDLE TN ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...WITH SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING SWD AND WSWWD FROM THIS LOW INTO CENTRAL AL/SRN MS AND ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF NRN AL/MS INTO AR. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE TROUGHS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. ***POTENTIAL WW/S NRN/CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL*** VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE TROUGHS INTO NRN AL/MS AND INTO CENTRAL AL/SERN MS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SWD ACROSS MS/AL WITH 35-45 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ***WW 300*** REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SEVERAL LINE OF STORMS WITHIN WW 300 MOVING TO THE SE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KY INTO NRN AL AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGHS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF WW 300. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 35988808 33958223 31438218 31878429 31578599 31258777 31308905 31538982 32499050 33989045 35038986 34988814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 18:29:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 13:29:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201840.j4KIe9KQ000578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201839 MNZ000-NDZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201839Z - 202045Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN ND INTO FAR NWRN MN BETWEEN 20-22Z. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CAVALIER COUNTY SWWD INTO KIDDER COUNTY. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ACCAS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. AS SFC CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN ND/FAR NWRN MN WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LOW LEVELS WARM INTO THE MID 80S...AND DEWPTS REMAIN OR MIX INTO THE 50S. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM AND MODERATE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG TO AID IN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LACK OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING/SLIGHT WARMING MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS AND THE NEED FOR A WW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48979741 48769809 47369970 46940010 46529970 46199884 46539679 47999531 49009510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 18:33:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 13:33:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201844.j4KIi8rk003591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201843 SCZ000-GAZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 201843Z - 201945Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WW 301. THROUGH 20Z...GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 301...EAST OF A LINE FROM EDGEFIELD COUNTY SC TO RICHMOND COUNTY GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM EDGEFIELD COUNTY SC TO RICHMOND COUNTY GA. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AT 40-45 KT. ORIENTATION OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT E-W ACROSS SRN SC...SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE THE ZONE FOR GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 20Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 301 WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE BOW STRUCTURE TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND ALSO ALONG THE WWD MOVING COASTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 301. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 33918219 33917997 31388041 31378262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 19:35:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 14:35:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201946.j4KJkBib014931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201945 NCZ000-TNZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201945Z - 202045Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC THROUGH 22-23Z. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING SSEWD ACROSS ERN TN ATTM WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY THROUGH 22-23Z. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX... 36078506 35868456 35908362 35438317 35068329 35008450 35188542 35548595 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:22:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:22:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202032.j4KKWkgW015934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202031 MTZ000-WYZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL MT...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202031Z - 202200Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND FAR NWRN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER SWRN MT DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z OVER SCENTRAL MT/NCENTRAL WY AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING INSTABILITY. TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS SHOW AXIS OF 50+ DEWPTS HAS MOVED AS FAR WWD AS BOZEMAN AREA IN SWRN MT AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER SWRN MT. DESPITE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER AREA PRESENTLY ...LARGER SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. 50-70 KT MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION. INSTABILITY OVER SWRN MT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED INITIALLY BY RELATIVELY LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX... 45910645 46430928 46581085 45861196 45301170 44321033 44180905 44380700 45230566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:30:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:30:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202041.j4KKfJM3021360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202040 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 202040Z - 202215Z DAMAGING WINDS AND THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 301. FURTHER EAST...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC BY 21Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE NEW WW FOR THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SUMTER COUNTY SC SWWD TO LAURENS COUNTY GA...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE OVER SRN/SERN SC ALONG/NEAR THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SERN GA INTO NRN GA ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 301. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 33047914 32258031 31358053 31408262 32498249 33048147 34068035 34167991 34307898 34287772 33877786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:46:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:46:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202056.j4KKusLP031657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202031 MTZ000-WYZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL MT...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202031Z - 202200Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND FAR NWRN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER SWRN MT DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z OVER SCENTRAL MT/NCENTRAL WY AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING INSTABILITY. TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS SHOW AXIS OF 50+ DEWPTS HAS MOVED AS FAR WWD AS BOZEMAN AREA IN SWRN MT AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER SWRN MT. DESPITE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER AREA PRESENTLY ...LARGER SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. 50-70 KT MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION. INSTABILITY OVER SWRN MT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED INITIALLY BY RELATIVELY LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX... 45910645 46430928 46581085 45861196 45301170 44321033 44180905 44380700 45230566  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:53:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:53:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202104.j4KL49dP004800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202040 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 202040Z - 202215Z DAMAGING WINDS AND THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 301. FURTHER EAST...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC BY 21Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE NEW WW FOR THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SUMTER COUNTY SC SWWD TO LAURENS COUNTY GA...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE OVER SRN/SERN SC ALONG/NEAR THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SERN GA INTO NRN GA ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 301. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 33047914 32258031 31358053 31408262 32498249 33048147 34068035 34167991 34307898 34287772 33877786  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 21:39:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 16:39:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202150.j4KLo6mR001068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202149 WYZ000-IDZ000-MTZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202149Z - 202345Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT ACROSS SCENTRAL/SERN ID. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS STRONG UPSLOPE OCCURS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN ID. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SWRN ID AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS EVIDENT BY PRESSURE RISES/COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AT BOI WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL/SERN ID OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF FORCING/SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL STRONG/ISO SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN ID AS MODERATE SWLY FLOW AIDS IN ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MTNS OF SERN ID. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 43421447 43141499 42611555 42251539 42041532 42061309 42161133 43021084 43911112 44401170 44361320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 21:42:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 16:42:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202152.j4KLqWQG002520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202151 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...CNTRL MS...NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202151Z - 202345Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR/CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS NERN LA THIS EVENING. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER NRN AR AND NRN MS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS WAS VERY HOT AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT AND NLY 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THIS IS PERHAPS DUE TO DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL THAT MIGHT SUSTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WATCH 302...ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33918990 33418946 32048933 32009190 32749332 33529333 34529286 34279184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:12:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:12:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202223.j4KMNFQw018574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202149 WYZ000-IDZ000-MTZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202149Z - 202345Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT ACROSS SCENTRAL/SERN ID. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS STRONG UPSLOPE OCCURS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN ID. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SWRN ID AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS EVIDENT BY PRESSURE RISES/COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AT BOI WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL/SERN ID OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF FORCING/SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL STRONG/ISO SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN ID AS MODERATE SWLY FLOW AIDS IN ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MTNS OF SERN ID. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 43421447 43141499 42611555 42251539 42041532 42061309 42161133 43021084 43911112 44401170 44361320  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:13:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:13:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202224.j4KMOILT019092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202223 MNZ000-NDZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 202223Z - 210000Z LEFT AND RIGHT SPLIT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN ND AND NWRN MN. LIMITED SPACIAL COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING SEVERE PRECLUDES WW ATTM. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE SRN STORM AS IT MOVES FROM CASS COUNTY ND SEWD TO SRN CLAY COUNTY MN/NERN RICHLAND COUNTY ND...AND NRN WILKIN COUNTY MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LEFT SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON COUNTIES MN AS LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW NOTED ON RADAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPDRAFT. THESE ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN 1-2 HOURS...AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO OTTER TAIL/BECKER AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES MN. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ISOLATED SVR STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER BARNES COUNTY...CAPPING REMAINS STRONGER INTO CENTRAL ND...AND THE OVERALL LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL AREA OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48109614 47629718 47009821 46779845 46269810 46189749 46099687 46199618 47259536 47789504 48059527 48129545 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:17:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202227.j4KMRot0020713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202151 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...CNTRL MS...NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202151Z - 202345Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR/CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS NERN LA THIS EVENING. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER NRN AR AND NRN MS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS WAS VERY HOT AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT AND NLY 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THIS IS PERHAPS DUE TO DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL THAT MIGHT SUSTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WATCH 302...ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33918990 33418946 32048933 32009190 32749332 33529333 34529286 34279184  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:44:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:44:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202254.j4KMsad4031869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202223 MNZ000-NDZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 202223Z - 210000Z LEFT AND RIGHT SPLIT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN ND AND NWRN MN. LIMITED SPACIAL COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING SEVERE PRECLUDES WW ATTM. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE SRN STORM AS IT MOVES FROM CASS COUNTY ND SEWD TO SRN CLAY COUNTY MN/NERN RICHLAND COUNTY ND...AND NRN WILKIN COUNTY MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LEFT SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON COUNTIES MN AS LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW NOTED ON RADAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPDRAFT. THESE ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN 1-2 HOURS...AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO OTTER TAIL/BECKER AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES MN. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ISOLATED SVR STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER BARNES COUNTY...CAPPING REMAINS STRONGER INTO CENTRAL ND...AND THE OVERALL LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL AREA OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48109614 47629718 47009821 46779845 46269810 46189749 46099687 46199618 47259536 47789504 48059527 48129545  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:45:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:45:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202255.j4KMtrqF032279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202255 MNZ000-NDZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL SD AND SWRN/SCENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202255Z - 210000Z ISOLATED STG STORM OVER CARTER COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARDS HARDING COUNTY SD AND BOWMAN COUNTY ND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN ND TO JUST EAST OF BIS. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN MT NEWD TO JUST EAST OF BIS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED...WITH MLCINH AROUND 100 J/KG. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CAP WAS ERODING TO THE EAST OF BIS AND OVER CARTER COUNTY MT. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINATION OF INCREASED LIFT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48109614 47629718 47009821 46779845 46269810 46189749 46099687 46199618 47259536 47789504 48059527 48129545 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:27:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:27:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202337.j4KNbsLY017379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202336 SDZ000-NEZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/CENTRAL SD...FAR NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202336Z - 210100Z ISOLATED STG/SVR STORM OVER TODD COUNTY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SCENTRAL SD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT IF SEVERAL STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WOULD SUPPORT A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC PRESSURE FALL/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED SFC PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL SD/NWRN NEB HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR. MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE /40 KT/ WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY OF AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WITH ANY STORM OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET /02Z/. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...THEN AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IF MORE THAN ONE STORM DEVELOPS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE NEED FOR A WW AFTER 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43009921 43939936 44560006 44720094 44450157 43730203 43280200 42850169 42590074 42709981 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:35:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:35:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202345.j4KNjwPp020515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202344 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 202344Z - 210115Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE SEGMENTS SHOWING SOME BOWING CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS SRN GA WERE MOVING INTO POST SQUALL LINE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF COASTAL SC MCS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CNTRL GA WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. FARTHER WEST...COMPLEX ACROSS WCNTRL AL APPEARS TO BE NEAR SQUALL LINE/SYNOPTIC FRONT INTERSECTION. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED COINCIDENT WITH THIS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT SPREAD SWD ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LASTLY...INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE GULF BREEZE IN THE SRN PARTS OF WATCH 302. GIVEN DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE FL PNHDL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AL LATER...MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH FROM MOBILE BAY EAST ACROSS THE FL PNHDL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 30218311 30018408 29708532 30018683 30308843 30558910 31498935 33458940 33558955 33938952 33588772 33758705 33938620 33368502 32918424 32538274 32468240 31948263 31668293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:36:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:36:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202347.j4KNl65t021269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202336 SDZ000-NEZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/CENTRAL SD...FAR NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202336Z - 210100Z ISOLATED STG/SVR STORM OVER TODD COUNTY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SCENTRAL SD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT IF SEVERAL STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WOULD SUPPORT A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC PRESSURE FALL/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED SFC PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL SD/NWRN NEB HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR. MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE /40 KT/ WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY OF AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WITH ANY STORM OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET /02Z/. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...THEN AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IF MORE THAN ONE STORM DEVELOPS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE NEED FOR A WW AFTER 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43009921 43939936 44560006 44720094 44450157 43730203 43280200 42850169 42590074 42709981  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:40:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:40:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202351.j4KNp7Mc022553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202344 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 202344Z - 210115Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE SEGMENTS SHOWING SOME BOWING CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS SRN GA WERE MOVING INTO POST SQUALL LINE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF COASTAL SC MCS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CNTRL GA WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. FARTHER WEST...COMPLEX ACROSS WCNTRL AL APPEARS TO BE NEAR SQUALL LINE/SYNOPTIC FRONT INTERSECTION. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED COINCIDENT WITH THIS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT SPREAD SWD ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LASTLY...INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE GULF BREEZE IN THE SRN PARTS OF WATCH 302. GIVEN DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE FL PNHDL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AL LATER...MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH FROM MOBILE BAY EAST ACROSS THE FL PNHDL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 30218311 30018408 29708532 30018683 30308843 30558910 31498935 33458940 33558955 33938952 33588772 33758705 33938620 33368502 32918424 32538274 32468240 31948263 31668293  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 00:37:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 19:37:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210048.j4L0m3Lk014599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210047 MTZ000-WYZ000-210215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL...ECENTRAL/SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303... VALID 210047Z - 210215Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WW 303. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS FROM GOLDEN VALLEY AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES IN SCENTRAL MT INTO ECENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY HIGH TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE JUST OUT OF WW 303 ACROSS ECENTRAL MT...BUT AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT ATTM. GIVEN LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL CURRENTLY NE OF WWW 303...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FARTHER SOUTH...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NCENTRAL WY PER SFC ANALYSIS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NRN BIG HORN MTNS. UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF IDAHO...AND RECENT TRENDS IN SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT STRONG CONVECTION OVER NWRN WY/ERN ID SHOULD SURVIVE AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL MT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL STG/SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER THE NRN BIG HORN MTNS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN MT AND WW 303. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 47630488 47330710 46891049 44980952 45010409 47550406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 01:31:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 20:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210141.j4L1flWe002643@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210140 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-210315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN LA...WCNTRL AND SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304... VALID 210140Z - 210315Z ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN AR WHILE LARGER CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS INVOF FRONTAL WAVE NEAR FRONT/SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION OVER CNTRL MS. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD FUEL CONVECTION NEAR THE STRONGER MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE SFC LOW/WAVE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MID LEVEL WARMING NOTED IN SHV RAOB MAY ACT TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND STORM PERSISTENCE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS WATCH 304. THUS...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PARTS OF LA MAY BE CLEARED IN LATER STATUS MESSAGES. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... 31338940 31599253 33119257 32568935 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 03:28:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 22:28:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210338.j4L3cWB8016491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210337 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE LA/MS/AL/SW GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302...304...306... VALID 210337Z - 210500Z SEVERE WW 302 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 04Z...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SEVERE WW 304 IS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR PORTIONS OF SW MS...AND AS SOON AS THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE WW...THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. STORMS CURRENTLY IN SW MS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SRN LA...BUT THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT. A NEW WW IS NOT BEING PLANNED DOWNSTREAM. FARTHER EAST...STORMS FORMING IN SE AL ARE LIKELY DEVELOPING ATOP THE COLD POOL...SO THIS BACKBUILDING IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT A SEVERE THREAT. FORWARD PROPAGATION IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS SRN GA...WHERE THE COLD POOL IS MORE DEVELOPED. HOWEVER THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE MCS IS MOVING OFFSHORE. ..TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 30188303 31549138 32339092 31548469 31488307 30428297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 03:35:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 22:35:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210346.j4L3kJmm018848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210345 NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-210545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...307... VALID 210345Z - 210545Z NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING FROM ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES...EAST TO DAWSON COUNTY IN ERN MT AS STRONG UPPER IMPULSE DRIVES LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS OVER ND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL WY AND THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE CROSSED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT/WY WITH STORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO WRN PORTION OF WATCH 303. DEEPENING SFC LOW AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT STRONG INSTABILITY NWWD OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR... STORMS IN THIS REGIME WILL PERSIST AND ROTATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG DOWNBURSTS. LATEST IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO CONFIRM SHORT TERM MODEL DATA THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NWRN ND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 47240263 46790505 44920434 44890945 46871060 46920707 47890674 48710261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 04:27:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 23:27:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210437.j4L4bnQ2005256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210437 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-210600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...ERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305... VALID 210437Z - 210600Z SEVERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO ERN SECTIONS OF SVR TSTM WATCH 305 OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS ERN MT MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR. EVOLVING MCS MAY INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIND DAMAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST ACROSS WRN ND NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE EDGE OF HIGH PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED IN LATEST RUC AND NAM FCSTS AND NOW APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING FROM POTTER COUNTY TO SANBORN COUNTY IN ERN SD. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE ZONE OF STORM INITIATION...EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. A NEW WATCH MAY BE FORTHCOMING FOR PARTS OF ERN SD SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46920380 48139577 46279573 46079704 43629679 43379910 45590061 44950388 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 05:58:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 00:58:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210608.j4L68xbq007250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210608 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-210745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND/NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210608Z - 210745Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 305 EXPIRING AT 07Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN SD /SW OF REJ/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. AS OF 0550Z...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WERE IN PROGRESS OVER GARFIELD...ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES IN ERN MT...AS WELL AS EDMUNDS AND FAULK COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL/NERN SD. THE FORMER STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STEADILY PUSHING EWD ACROSS ERN MT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS...INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SWRN ND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 - 9 C/KM. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES EWD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ALONG WARM FRONT. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 3 KM AGL AND SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER STORMS OVER N-CNTRL/NERN SD ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ALONG SLY 50 KT LLJ AXIS. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE W...AIR MASS IS STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44940401 46890398 47109587 44959591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 09:43:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 04:43:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210953.j4L9rsd6003016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210952 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-211115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 210952Z - 211115Z THROUGH 12Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM NEAR BIS NEWD TO THE RED RIVER N OF FAR. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST E OF THE MO RIVER APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES N OF BIS AS OF 0936Z. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BOWING STRUCTURE OVER WELLS...EDDY AND BENSON COUNTIES...AND A MORE ISOLATED STORM OVER MORTON COUNTY...IT APPEARS THAT A STRONG CAP IS SUPPRESSING MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THROUGH 12Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR BIS NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER N OF FAR. HERE...CAP MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY ERODED TO SUSTAIN SEVERE CONVECTION OWING TO PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARISING FROM COUPLING OF: 1) STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG LLJ AXIS...AND 2) REGION OF MESOSCALE ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ..MEAD.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47510224 48899562 46549568 45210201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 12:33:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 07:33:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505211244.j4LCiKSX002541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211243 MNZ000-NDZ000-211345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 211243Z - 211345Z THROUGH 14Z...MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW 309 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 14Z. VERY STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z ABR SOUNDING HAS EFFECTIVELY REDUCED ENVIRONMENTAL CAPE AND INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WW AREA. ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF MCV WHERE REGION OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY SHIFT EWD ACROSS RED RIVER INTO NWRN MN...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE MELTING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN WARM CAP LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48309913 48899562 46549568 46009845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 18:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 13:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505211825.j4LIPglo028297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211824 MNZ000-NDZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211824Z - 211930Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN ND INTO MUCH OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN IN THE NEXT HOUR. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER ERN ND /EAST OF A DVL-JMS LINE/ INTO ERN SD NEAR ABR TO WNW MHE. STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN/SWRN MANITOBA. DESPITE A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... ALBEIT A NARROW AXIS ALONG/E FRONT...CLOUDINESS OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN WILL FURTHER SLOW SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG THE ERN ND/MN BORDER SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA/ND THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 20-21Z AS IT REACHES FAR ERN ND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE IN A LINE VERSUS BECOMING DISCRETE... DESPITE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47989772 49009797 49009575 46619501 45979504 45969627 45969809 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 19:35:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 14:35:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505211946.j4LJkK7q031829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211944 MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211944Z - 212045Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR ERN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB /AROUND AND S OF OFK/ WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR ERN NEB. CAPPING INVERSION REMAINED OVER FAR ERN NEB PER OMAHA 18Z SOUNDING. HOWEVER...THIS SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR WARM SECTOR SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUGGESTED THE CAP HAS BECOME VERY WEAK. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE MID 90S AND INCREASING ASCENT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ESEWD IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40439792 41919815 42809818 42499650 40099555 40169786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:29:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:29:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212040.j4LKeJna026107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212039 KSZ000-COZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212039Z - 212215Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SEWD OVER WRN KS AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF HLC TO 50 WNW OF GCK TO 20 NORTH OF LAA. TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 50. THIS HAS PROVIDED FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM 800-1000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 19Z RUC SOUNDINGS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. OVERALL ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT EXPECTED SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39419966 38840087 38410171 37890208 37470201 37220169 37250062 37539964 38189884 39309909 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:41:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212052.j4LKq11i030967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212050 MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212050Z - 212145Z WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ONCE CU FIELD OVER ERN NEB SHOWS SIGNS OF UPWARD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. CAP STRENGTH BEING MONITORED ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITHIN NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40439792 42729833 42829747 42629659 40099555 40169786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:55:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:55:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212106.j4LL61Ju004950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212039 KSZ000-COZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212039Z - 212215Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SEWD OVER WRN KS AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF HLC TO 50 WNW OF GCK TO 20 NORTH OF LAA. TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 50. THIS HAS PROVIDED FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM 800-1000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 19Z RUC SOUNDINGS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. OVERALL ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT EXPECTED SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39419966 38840087 38410171 37890208 37470201 37220169 37250062 37539964 38189884 39309909  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 21:09:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 16:09:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212119.j4LLJS0g011265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212050 NDZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212050Z - 212245Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN DEEPLY MIXED POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER NRN ND. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION WAS INCREASING OVER NWRN ND AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN ND...A NARROW AXIS OF DEWPTS NEAR 50 DEGREES RESIDED OVER NRN ND. COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50 KTS AT 2 KM ON THE VWP FROM MINOT/ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER OCCURS WITH STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 49070207 48560260 48290233 48200109 48229932 48269848 48489797 48799759 48959823 49000072  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 23:20:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 18:20:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212331.j4LNV3aP008019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212329 KSZ000-220100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212329Z - 220100Z TCU AND CB HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. A SMALL SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE STORMS IF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTS OR INCREASES. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST FRONTAL AND DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS CNTRL KS...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY BREACH STRONG CAP AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION OVER LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES IN NCNTRL KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WSWWD FROM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF INHIBITION LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION CAN PERSIST. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS...HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND FRONTAL FORCING COULD EITHER 1) PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR...2) SUSTAIN ISOLATED ONGOING STORMS MOVING EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IF UPDRAFTS CAN TAP THIS GREATER INSTABILITY. INITIALLY...SEVERE HAZARD WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. IF MORE PERSISTENT/STOUT CELLS TAKE SHAPE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ENSUE...AND A WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38909787 38839655 39009643 39029553 37959581 38059803 37999973 38259972 38529982 38649966 39389793 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 00:17:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 19:17:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505220028.j4M0S7CS032465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220026 IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB ...WRN IA...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311... VALID 220026Z - 220200Z VERY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE BULK OF TORNADO WATCH 311 THIS EVENING. EARLIER ATTEMPTS AT STORM INITIATION NEAR FRONT BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER EXTREME SERN NEB HAVE FAILED AS CELLS DRIFTED SEWD OFF THE BOUNDARY AND DECAYED OVER NERN KS. ANOTHER UPDRAFT APPEARED TO COINCIDE WITH COLD FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW INTERSECTION ACROSS SERN SD. THIS CELL HAS ALSO WEAKENED/DIMINISHED. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT IN EXTREME SERN SD WHERE CAP MAY BE WEAKEST. CLEARLY...CAP IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE ALMOST ALL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OTHERWISE. OMA/TOP RAOBS INDICATED NEARLY 200 J/KG MLCIN AND WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING NOW SETTING IN...PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING. NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. EVEN ONE STORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THUS...WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... 39159550 39089788 43169723 43139478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 01:19:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 20:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505220129.j4M1TVKG021130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220128 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-220330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0828 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220128Z - 220330Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND MO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASCENT DRIVEN BY INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK IMPULSE CRESTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NEB...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS IA AND MO TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK-REFLECTIVITY STORMS IN AN ARC FROM SERN IA INTO NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEAR 850-700MB FRONTAL SURFACE...ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG CNTRL PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ARE LIKELY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST POINT FCST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ROTATION. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY SUPPORT HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 39049239 39029402 40049503 41099526 41759508 40979153 40139133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 05:46:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 00:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505220557.j4M5vMvN015917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220556 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL IA INTO CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220556Z - 220700Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0543Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 W OF LWD TO 40 NE COU. SYNTHESIS OF CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORK SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING N OF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMPOSITE AND ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ WHERE MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ARE BEING MAXIMIZED. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT LOCAL AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 1-1.5 KM AGL WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40259542 41189497 41529383 40549226 38939146 38169235 38139368 39329505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 19:04:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 14:04:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505221914.j4MJEkFB011520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221913 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO...NERN OK...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221913Z - 222115Z PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO...AND NWRN AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE WAS ROUGHLY SITUATED ALONG A STL-SGF-BVO-P28 LINE WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR AND THEN EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR AS SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN OK BENEATH STRONG CAP...BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE OZARKS. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION TO POSSIBLY ROOT INTO THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM EXTREME SERN KS INTO SRN MO AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT IN THIS REGION WHERE THE CAP IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKER. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...PERHAPS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE... MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER 100F NEAR THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. OR...ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST MAY BACKBUILD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. DISCRETE CELLS NEAR OR ON BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IN AREAS WHERE THE LFC IS LOCALLY LOWER AND SHEAR IS GREATER. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35559414 35669516 35919606 36939895 37279890 37649498 37829407 37909241 37419185 36879204 35909249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 20:47:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 15:47:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505222057.j4MKvSat027836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222056 NMZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF FAR SERN WY...ERN CO AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222056Z - 222300Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MDT-TOWERING CU ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NERN NM...AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN CO/FAR SERN WY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST INTO THE REGION...WITH SSELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF NERN CO...AND SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED SELY FLOW IN SERN CO/NERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A LEE LOW /DENVER CYCLONE/ WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY IN THIS AREA. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MLCINH HAS WEAKENED TO AROUND 50 J/KG. ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/...BUT 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME SVR THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41250441 41490493 41320580 40790572 40050556 39460544 38930542 37960542 37200516 36770512 36500502 36390491 36270443 36780392 39030421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 22:19:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 17:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505222230.j4MMUILC004297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222229 KSZ000-OKZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...EXTREME SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222229Z - 230000Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE WW. ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM SHOULD GROW RAPIDLY AND BECOME SEVERE...WITH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM BVO-PNC WWD ACROSS CENTRAL GRANT/ALFALFA COUNTIES NWD TO NERN WOODWARD COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN SOME NWD DRIFT THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT HAS STALLED AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF KS BORDER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. MESONET DATA...AND CLEAR-AIR MODE REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS FROM VANCE AFB UNIT...INDICATE MESOBETA SCALE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY S OF FRONT -- DRIFTING NWD ACROSS MAJOR/GARFIELD/NOBLE/PAWNEE COUNTIES. SEVERAL MISOSCALE CIRCULATIONS AND CLUMPS OF DEEP CU/TCU ARE EVIDENT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY...INDICATING LOCALLY FOCUSED CONVERGENCE/LIFT. VIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MORE HOMOGENEOUS SHALLOW CONVECTION IN EXTENSIVE FIELD OVER SRN KS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 25-75 NM N OF FRONT. GLACIATING TCU ALSO IS EVIDENT OVER NWRN OSAGE COUNTY ALONG FRONT...AND OTHER DEEP CU/TCU ARE SEEN ON SRN BOUNDARY OVER PAWNEE COUNTY. AIR MASS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE IS WELL SAMPLED BY VWP/PROFILER DATA...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED 18Z LMN RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE AND ALMOST NO CINH. WEAK/BACKED SFC WINDS IN THIS AREA CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 250-350 J/KG FOR ESEWD STORM MOTION. STRONG VEERING BUT WITH SPEED WEAKNESSES IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW INDICATE QUICK EVOLUTION TO HEAVY-PRECIP AND PERHAPS OUTFLOW DOMINANT MODES FOR ANY DISCRETE STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR BOW DEVELOPMENT EXISTS ALSO. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36259729 36219838 36189901 36229937 36529977 36849981 37129971 37349940 37459879 37499790 37499672 37279560 36989549 36579563 36319616 36259680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 02:24:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 21:24:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230234.j4N2YdO4010516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230233 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN KS...NERN OK...EXTREME SWRN MO...NWRN-CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230233Z - 230430Z REGIME OF ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY NWRN AR SHOULD EXTEND INTO PORTIONS NERN OK AND CENTRAL/SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOST INTENSE CELLS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. IR CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN MO OZARKS WWD ALONG NRN TIER OK COUNTIES...THEN SWWD OVER TX PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER AR MCS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOT NWWD TO JUST E TUL...INTERSECTING FRONT THERE. CONTINUED DIABATIC COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER -- NE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N OF SFC FRONT -- SHOULD DECOUPLE BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER...THOUGH LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE SFC ARE NOT TOO STABLE TO PROHIBIT STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS FROM PENETRATING TO SFC AS WELL. MODIFIED LMN/SGF RAOBS...AS WELL AS RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATE STEEP 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 150 MB TROPOPAUSE LEVELS OVER THIS AREA. WHEN COMBINED WITH 13-14 DEG C 850 MB DEW POINTS...SUPPORT VERY DEEP BUOYANCY PROFILE WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS NOTED ON 500 MB CHART OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS APPEAR TIED TO WEAK PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN PROFILER AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN CO...INDICATING SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN LARGE SCALE UVV OVER DISCUSSION AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36939716 37279740 37669746 38299724 37939506 37349408 35599182 34739251 35919529 36419654 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 04:26:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 23:26:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230436.j4N4ahjC022542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230435 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...N-CENTRAL/NERN OK...NWRN-CENTRAL AR...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312... VALID 230435Z - 230630Z CONTINUE WW. RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF TSTMS CONTINUES OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN KS WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS OK BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME...5Z ONWARD. SEVERE HAIL HAS OCCURRED AND...WITH FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE WITH TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN KS. HEAVY PRECIP SUPERCELL RIGHT-MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ELK COUNTY KS ATTM...TOWARD CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WITH OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WNWWD ACROSS COWLEY/BUTLER COUNTIES. UP TO 2.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN PAST HALF HOUR. VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES GENERALLY SSEWD ACROSS REMAINDER KS/OK BORDER REGION FROM COWLEY KS AND OSAGE OK COUNTIES EWD OVER NEXT 3-4 HOURS. REFLECTIVITY AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES COMPLEX BACKBUILDING AS FAR W AS HUT...KEEPING POSSIBILITY OPEN OF SEVERE HAIL OVER ICT AREA. CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST 3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PORTION KS/OK BORDER REGION...WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEARS USING MU PARCELS WILL REMAIN IN 40-50 KT RANGE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36579845 38629844 37049247 35039249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 06:24:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 01:24:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230635.j4N6ZA3A028782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230634 TXZ000-OKZ000-230730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230634Z - 230730Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. REMNANTS OF DIURNAL TSTMS ORIGINATING OVER THE RATON MESA SUNDAY EVENING HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE NWRN TX PNHDL WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED WITH SRN-MOST CELL NEAR HARTLEY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE NEAR SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY 30 KT LLJ IN PLACE OVER WRN TX INTO THE PNHDL. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION...THOUGH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM 1.5-2 KM AGL. ONGOING STORMS WILL REMAIN CABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA... 35930240 36360219 36540168 36570063 36140022 35720015 35230073 35120138 35250216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 07:21:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 02:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230732.j4N7WABU014645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230731 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312... VALID 230731Z - 230830Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EVOLVING MCS HAS STARTED TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL FROM NOWATA COUNTY OK INTO BENTON COUNTY AR WITH A SSEWD MOTION OF 35-40 KTS. RUC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS E-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 KT. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OWING TO INCREASED SYSTEM MOTION...EXPECT MCS AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR E-CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL/CNTRL AR BY 10-11Z. MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENSION OF MCS REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR ICT AS A RESULT OF SUBSEQUENT BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION COUPLED WITH VEERING LLJ MAY SUPPORT MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND INCREASING WIND THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38709846 37099235 35009233 36549851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 10:01:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 05:01:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231012.j4NACBqQ008268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231010 OKZ000-231115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231010Z - 231115Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS W OF WW 312. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ERN CANADIAN/WRN OKLAHOMA AND SRN LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG SWD-SURGING MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CNTRL CANADIAN INTO NRN HUGHES COUNTY AS OF 1000Z. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR BETWEEN THE LFC AND SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION IS LIKELY DILUTING PARCEL BUOYANCY. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CIN SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 35669845 35919821 35869697 35579669 35089656 34869661 34799705 34889757 35029807 35229852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 11:40:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 06:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231150.j4NBocMb010536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231148 ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-231315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... VALID 231148Z - 231315Z THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP MCS COLD POOL. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE S OF PARENT MCS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF SYSTEM OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE PERSISTED ON NWRN FLANK OF MCS /OVER NERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS/ WHERE WSWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING STRONG LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ATOP COLD POOL. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN THIS SAME REGIME...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 13 OR 14Z WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND WW 313 MAY EVENTUALLY BE CANCELLED IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37469663 35419090 33319098 35459670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:06:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:06:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231717.j4NHHAiT027306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231716 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND PORTIONS OF ERN NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231716Z - 231845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA SWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA IN THE LYH AREA WITH A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW NEAR A RDU-FAY-AGS LINE. AIR MASS IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A 7OKT MID LEVEL JET IS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION LOCATED ACROSS ERN VA. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS STRONGER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONGER CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE LEESIDE TROUGH...S OF FLO...IS AIDING IN CUMULUS ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE WEAK CAP...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP INTO STORMS SHORTLY...WITH OTHERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT WOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE...SO STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER ENOUGH COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP FOR A WW ISSUANCE. ..IMY.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33378094 34297983 35487825 36797787 38187742 38647673 37867579 36067569 34057761 32897973 32628049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:13:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:13:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231723.j4NHNhmm031979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231722 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL...CENTRAL/SRN GA...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231722Z - 231915Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN MS ENEWD INTO WCENTRAL GA. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR CONVECTION BECOMING LINEAR WITH TIME. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE. A WW COULD BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30 S OF MEI TO MGM TO JUST W OF ATL. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH. ALTHOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG ATTM /20-25 KTS/ PER REGIONAL VWP/S AND PROFILER DATA...THE COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHING WIND MAX FROM MCV OVER AR/WRN TN WILL AID IN 2-6 KM FLOW FIELDS OVER THE AREA INCREASING TO 30-40 KTS BY MID AFTERNOON. ATTM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOT OVERLY STRONG. HOWEVER...APPROACHING MCV OVER WRN TN/AR SHOULD AID IN SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. COMBINED WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BEGINNING AROUND 19Z. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 6-6.5 DEG C/KM. THUS THE SVR HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33438271 33688477 32338656 31978797 31718883 30908916 30158829 30208569 30078441 31258131 32418144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:44:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:44:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231754.j4NHsWt0020917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231753 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN OK...SWRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231753Z - 231930Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN SERN OK AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WITH A HAIL THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR PICTURES SHOW A MCV NEAR ADM MOVING ESEWD AT 35-40 KT THROUGH SRN OK. RECENT WIND PROFILES AT OKC AND TUL ALSO SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM...WHICH SUPPORT WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL THREAT. ..IMY.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34089651 35319631 35529541 35239434 34089338 33169359 33499532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 18:03:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 13:03:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231813.j4NIDVa5000713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231812 MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH...SCENTRAL LOWER MI...AND NRN WV/SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231812Z - 232015Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERNEATH UPPER VORT MAX CENTERED OVER WRN LK ERIE ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL ALLOW FOR MUCAPES TO REACH 800-1000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. AXIS OF MODERATE /30-50 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW ON NRN SIDE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMT OF SVR HAIL POTENTIAL...THUS PRECLUDING A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... 41208187 42008410 41938476 41098475 40138372 39308217 38598061 38617976 39277936 40288090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 18:58:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 13:58:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231909.j4NJ93Pq009996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231908 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME NWRN KS AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231908Z - 232015Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A WW POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NWRN KS AND WRN NEB. AT 19Z...COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SEWD AND EXTENDED FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE SWWD TO EAST OF AKO AND THEN WWD TO NEAR COS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. BEHIND THE FRONT...NEWLY WINDS WERE STRENGTHENING AS THE UPSLOPE WIND DEEPENED...RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S SO HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FRONT AND GREATER INSTABILITY ...EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NERN CO PLAINS INTO WRN NEB. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BETWEEN COS AND LIC...WHERE COLD FRONT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY IS INTERSECTING HIGHER TERRAIN....SO WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z. ..IMY.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38890497 39840395 40720323 42720240 42820170 42300030 37910208 37910276 38250427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:02:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:02:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232113.j4NLDDwS031707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232112 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232112Z - 232245Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WW 314 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH SERN VA TOWARDS NORFOLK/NEWPORT NEWS IN THE 1-1.5 HOURS. INTERACTION OF SUPERCELL WITH OCEAN BREEZE FRONT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /27 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER WAKEFIELD VWP/ MAY AID IN A SHORT TERM TORNADO THREAT OVER SURRY AND ISLE OF WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE THE SUPERCELL CROSSES INTO MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED OVER NEWPORT NEWS/NORFOLK AREA. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE EARLIER PRECIP...SUFFICIENT CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION AGAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER WV AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY OR INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO WCENTRAL VA AND WW 314. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:27:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:27:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232137.j4NLbWoj014259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232136 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232136Z - 232300Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522 37000284 36990448 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:30:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:30:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232141.j4NLfHjR016564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232139 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232139Z - 232315Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 36890327 36960434 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:41:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:41:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232152.j4NLq0pT023583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232112 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232112Z - 232245Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WW 314 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH SERN VA TOWARDS NORFOLK/NEWPORT NEWS IN THE 1-1.5 HOURS. INTERACTION OF SUPERCELL WITH OCEAN BREEZE FRONT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /27 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER WAKEFIELD VWP/ MAY AID IN A SHORT TERM TORNADO THREAT OVER SURRY AND ISLE OF WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE THE SUPERCELL CROSSES INTO MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED OVER NEWPORT NEWS/NORFOLK AREA. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE EARLIER PRECIP...SUFFICIENT CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION AGAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER WV AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY OR INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO WCENTRAL VA AND WW 314. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:12:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:12:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232222.j4NMMRZF010176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232136 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232136Z - 232300Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522 37000284 36990448 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:13:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232223.j4NMNlEH011232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232139 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232139Z - 232315Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 36890327 36960434 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:23:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:23:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232234.j4NMY5Gu016474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232233 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...ERN/S-CENTRAL CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315... VALID 232233Z - 240000Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/SHIFT EWD FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 315...ASSOCIATED WITH EWD/SEWD MOTION OF ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING IN BROKEN BAND FROM PERKINS COUNTY NEB SWWD TO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY BEFORE 23Z. MAIN THREAT E OF WW 315 WILL BE LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE ALONG WRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...INTERSECTING COLD FRONT BETWEEN IML-OGA. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WIDENS ACROSS WRN KS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F. GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT OVER REGION...AND ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SFC BASED BUOYANCY FROM DIABATIC HEATING...2500-3500 MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TSTMS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...SOME OF WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP...HOWEVER STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37060262 37050551 41880327 41880014 41769995 41449978 41009977 40169947 39299907 38599876 37919934 37290039 37000101 37090259 41860017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:33:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:33:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232243.j4NMhXbw022207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232242 NCZ000-VAZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232242Z - 232345Z WW 314 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY 24/00Z. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN VA BEFORE LEADING STORM MOVES OFFSHORE. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN VA PORTION OF WW 314 IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE IN THE WAKE OF FIRST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314 WILL ALSO AID IN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA. THUS IT IS BECOMING UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION OVER WV WILL POSE A SVR THREAT WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL VA. IF CURRENT STABILIZING TRENDS CONTINUE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37917866 37847799 37057737 36777697 36527558 36527572 36477757 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:59:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:59:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232310.j4NNAGWU004404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232309 GAZ000-ALZ000-240115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN AL...CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232309Z - 240115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LACK OF MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE HAS MITIGATED STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG SFC FRONT...FROM JUST SOUTH OF BHM TO JUST NORTH OF MCN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 50 KTS SAMPLED BY THE OKOLONA MS PROFILER ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCV OVER NRN AL/GA WILL AID IN 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DESPITE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS... UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR MODE MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 33138393 33058592 32938701 32498691 31788584 31448364 31848151 32528143 33288197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 23:00:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 18:00:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232311.j4NNB8YU004750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232233 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...ERN/S-CENTRAL CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315... VALID 232233Z - 240000Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/SHIFT EWD FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 315...ASSOCIATED WITH EWD/SEWD MOTION OF ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING IN BROKEN BAND FROM PERKINS COUNTY NEB SWWD TO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY BEFORE 23Z. MAIN THREAT E OF WW 315 WILL BE LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE ALONG WRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...INTERSECTING COLD FRONT BETWEEN IML-OGA. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WIDENS ACROSS WRN KS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F. GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT OVER REGION...AND ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SFC BASED BUOYANCY FROM DIABATIC HEATING...2500-3500 MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TSTMS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...SOME OF WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP...HOWEVER STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37060262 37050551 41880327 41880014 41769995 41449978 41009977 40169947 39299907 38599876 37919934 37290039 37000101 37090259 41860017  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 23:06:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 18:06:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232317.j4NNHDgs008179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232242 NCZ000-VAZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232242Z - 232345Z WW 314 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY 24/00Z. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN VA BEFORE LEADING STORM MOVES OFFSHORE. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN VA PORTION OF WW 314 IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE IN THE WAKE OF FIRST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314 WILL ALSO AID IN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA. THUS IT IS BECOMING UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION OVER WV WILL POSE A SVR THREAT WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL VA. IF CURRENT STABILIZING TRENDS CONTINUE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37917866 37847799 37057737 36777697 36527558 36527572 36477757  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 23:24:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 18:24:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232334.j4NNYf3M017550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232309 GAZ000-ALZ000-240115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN AL...CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232309Z - 240115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LACK OF MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE HAS MITIGATED STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG SFC FRONT...FROM JUST SOUTH OF BHM TO JUST NORTH OF MCN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 50 KTS SAMPLED BY THE OKOLONA MS PROFILER ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCV OVER NRN AL/GA WILL AID IN 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DESPITE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS... UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR MODE MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 33138393 33058592 32938701 32498691 31788584 31448364 31848151 32528143 33288197  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 00:21:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 19:21:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505240031.j4O0VdOu013810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240030 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316... VALID 240030Z - 240230Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- LARGELY OVER SRN UNION COUNTY NM AS OF 0015Z -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/PROPAGATE INTO TX PANHANDLE...MAINTAINING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN WEAK LOWS NEAR GUY AND TCC. AIR MASS N OF THAT BOUNDARY -- IN INFLOW REGION OF NERN NM CONVECTION -- IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC FLOW WITH PRIMARY ELY COMPONENT...ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR ESEWD MOVING CONVECTION. SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS NWRN TX PANHANDLE YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. NRN PORTION OF COMPLEX MAY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES -- PREFERENTIALLY BUILDING INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BUOYANCY INCREASES TO 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE RANGES FARTHER N OVER OK PANHANDLE WHERE MODIFIED DDC RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS. CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION AND LOSS OF INSOLATION-RELATED SFC HEATING INDICATE COUNTIES W AND NW OF CONVECTION MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW ONCE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUTSIDE THEIR BORDERS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 34890405 36970397 36970104 34900118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 02:29:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 21:29:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505240239.j4O2dXoJ015128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240238 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCH 315...317... VALID 240238Z - 240345Z BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ANALYSES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BOTH WW 315 AND SEVERE WW 317 MAY BE REPLACED WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOST OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY OUTFLOW AND SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. ELSEWHERE...STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS BENT/KIOWA COUNTIES CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND WW 317. OTHER TSTMS BETWEEN GLD AND LINCOLN COUNTY CO -- AS OF 230Z -- ARE MOVING SEWD ALONG COMBINED COLD FRONTAL/OUTFLOW SURGE...AND COULD MERGE WITH FORMER ACTIVITY INTO MCS. WITH DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC TO STRENGTHEN...ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD. MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ATTM APPEARS TO BE CO/KS BORDER REGION NEAR WRN PORTION WW 317. THIS AREA IS ALONG NWRN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS -- ANALYZED ON 00Z 850 AND 925 MB CHARTS FROM CENTRAL OK NWWD ACROSS WRN KS. THIS CORRIDOR ALSO CORRESPONDS TO RUC FCST K INDEX AXIS THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. GREATEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME AREA WITH MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY CONCERN ATTM IS RELATIVELY STRONG CINH EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 36990052 36980137 36990251 37050322 37410366 37750378 38370362 38800379 39130376 39400346 39860163 40070043 40039967 39729942 38799917 37909892 37229906 36979933 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 06:05:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 01:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505240615.j4O6FmPa001064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240614 OKZ000-KSZ000-240745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318... VALID 240614Z - 240745Z THROUGH 10-12Z...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS MAY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK...POSSIBLY INTO NERN OK. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. AS OF 0556Z...DDC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF MCS GUST FRONT FROM RUSSELL AND RUSH COUNTIES SWWD TO MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER HODGEMAN...SWD THROUGH FORD AND THEN SWWD INTO MEADE COUNTIES. WELL-DEFINED REAR INFLOW JET HAS DEVELOPED TO THE S OF THIS MESOSCALE VORTEX WITH GREATER THAN 64 KT INBOUND VELOCITIES VERY CLOSE TO GROUND LEVEL OVER HODGEMAN AND FORD COUNTIES. ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM GCK AND DDC INDICATE THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 55-70 MPH SURFACE WINDS. 06Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS MCS IS MOVING/PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH GUST FRONT E OF LBL SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND INTO SWRN AR. AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS /I.E. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ N OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG FROM NEAR DDC SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK INTO NERN OK AND W-CNTRL AR. SYSTEM FORWARD SPEED OF AROUND 40 KTS AND RESULTING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 50-60 KTS WHEN COUPLED WITH DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO SPREAD AS FAR SE AS NERN OK BY 12Z. POSSIBLE FAILURE MODES OF SYSTEM ARE: 1) STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN GUST FRONT CIRCULATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUST FRONT TO OUTRUN PARENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LEADING EDGE UPDRAFTS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY TILTED UPSHEAR WITH TIME. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 38160164 39129973 38349819 37399602 36599511 35939522 35369605 35399695 36069873 37330122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 10:31:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 05:31:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241041.j4OAfrBW031268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241040 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS AND N-CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 241040Z - 241215Z THROUGH 12Z...GREATEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES ESEWD ACROSS FAR SERN KS...AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO NERN OK. AS OF 1015Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED WELL-DEFINED MCV JUST N OR NW OF HUT WITH LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVE MCS GUST FRONT FROM WRN MARION COUNTY SWD THROUGH ERN BUTLER AND COWLEY COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS. INSPECTION OF ICT VWP INDICATES THAT REAR-INFLOW JET /LARGELY RESULTING FROM ENHANCED FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF MCV/ HAD DIMINISHED TO 40-45 KTS...IN COMPARISON TO 60-65 KTS OBSERVED EARLIER ON THE DDC VWP. NONETHELESS...RECENT ICT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THIS WIND IS CLEARLY REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING ACTIVE CONVECTION. FARTHER S OVER N-CNTRL OK..ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG GUST FRONT AND APPARENT GRAVITY WAVE TRAIN OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND GUST FRONT SUGGEST THAT CAP IS LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER SW...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BEHIND GUST FRONT OVER CANADIAN...CADDO AND GRADY COUNTIES. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...IT APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE N OVER SERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO NERN OK WHERE MCS COLD POOL IS BEING BETTER SUSTAINED BY ACTIVE CONVECTION AND CHANNELED FLOW AROUND MCV. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38309765 36879349 34169360 35479775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 14:03:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 09:03:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241414.j4OEE5Wa009820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241413 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS...EXTREME NERN OK...EXTREME SWRN MO AND WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 241413Z - 241445Z REMAINING PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 319 EXPIRES AT 15Z AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED/REISSUED. MCS CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH STRONGEST TSTMS MOVING INTO SWRN MO AT MID-MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A MCV AND ON THE NOSE OF THE SWLY 15-20 KT LLJ. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A DIURNAL WEAKENING TREND AND THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/AHEAD OF MCV ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGER TSTMS MAY HAVE A PROPENSITY TO DEVELOP NEAR/S OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED SEWD FROM MCV CENTER TO NEAR FORT SMITH TO SRN AR. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37009679 37759625 36869368 36049370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 15:21:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 10:21:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241531.j4OFVhvg029967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241530 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-241700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241530Z - 241700Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND/DEVELOP S AND SEWD FROM SERN KS AND SWRN MO INTO MUCH OF ERN OK AND AR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. WELL-DEFINED MCV WAS MOVING SSEWD THROUGH SERN KS BETWEEN KICT-KCNU AT 15Z AND SHOULD DRIFT INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A NW-SE BAND TO THE W AND S OF KJLN...ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST 925 MB LLJ CORE. SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS AR WAS HEATING RAPIDLY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS A CU FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS WRN AR...A POSSIBLE SIGN THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHORTLY. FARTHER W IN ERN OK...MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY WILL MITIGATE STRONG SURFACE BASED HEATING UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN. BUT...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE MCV AS IT DROPS SEWD INTO NERN OK AFTER 18Z. PROFILERS SHOW A 40-45 KT H5 JET MAX WRAPPING SEWD AROUND THE MCV AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE SEWD WITH TIME...ENHANCING THE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE CELLS MATURE...BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 36899426 36239261 34979150 33969128 33349265 33509387 33939465 35439605 36849633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 16:00:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 11:00:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241610.j4OGAOu3025722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241609 FLZ000-241815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241609Z - 241815Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CTY TO NEAR DAB IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOWERING CU WAS FORMING ALONG SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR TLH TO NW OF DAB. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND ONLY 50-100 J/KG OF CINH. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WAS AROUND 30 KTS PER 12Z SOUNDING AT TLH AND JAX...LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS VEERED TO WLY AROUND 10 KTS. THUS EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS AROUND 20-25 KTS...WHICH WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS WERE RELATIVELY COLD /-10 TO - 11 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. THUS SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. IN ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR STORM MODE WITH TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29218103 29698119 29818186 30038341 29158300 28558283 27868250 27738139 27598031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 17:34:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 12:34:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241745.j4OHj2ad031541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241743 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-241945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...WCENTRAL MS AND NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241743Z - 241945Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SFC CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING OVER NERN LA. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCINH HAS DECREASED TO LESS THAN 25 J/KG OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK...LITTLE REMAINING CINH INDICATES THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR INTO WCENTRAL MS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN WAA ZONE OVER CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA...SO MULTICELLULAR TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LINEAR. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING NWRN AR/NERN OK MCV...CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33119011 34049140 33939249 33349265 32539247 32009133 31969040 32288992 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 17:55:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 12:55:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241805.j4OI5oDM013635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241803 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB AND EXTREME NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241803Z - 242000Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTN WITH THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 20Z. 17Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK E-W BOUNDARY FROM A LOW VCNTY KDEN TO SWRN NEB...AUGMENTED BY ELEVATED MORNING TSTMS/ACCAS. TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY...THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE OWING TO HEATING AND RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE. THE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS TO THE FRONT RANGE. CONTINUED HEATING WILL START TO ERASE CINH ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS ABOUT 20Z. CURRENT CONVECTIVE PULSES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL EVENTUALLY ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST AND RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM EWD ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY TOWARD SWRN NEB/NWRN KS LATER THIS AFTN. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 6KM IS SOMEWHAT WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS AT MIDDAY...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER THIS AFTN. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO...THOUGH DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE HIGH...PRESENCE OF A DENVER CYCLONE AND E-W SHEAR ZONE/BOUNDARY... LANDSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE ZONE FROM JUST E OF KDEN TO WASHINGTON COUNTY CO. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38160225 37910346 38070488 38990495 40070512 40910487 41010296 41050183 40620123 39980105 39250148 38620175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 18:12:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 13:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241822.j4OIMQGr025470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241821 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320... VALID 241821Z - 242015Z LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED VCNTY KTUL...JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV OVER EXTREME SERN KS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD OUTFLOW MOVING TOWARD ECNTRL OK AND NWRN AR. MOREOVER...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED THROUGH CNTRL AR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HIGHER DEW POINT AXIS FROM THE KMKO-KFSM-KELD. MLCAPES IN THIS AXIS ARE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR/S OF KTUL/KMKO BY 20Z AND RAPIDLY BECOME STRONG-SEVERE OWING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE CELLS TO DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR MCS AND BOW AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO WCNTRL AR/ECNTRL OK WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PREFER THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...THE ONCE STRONG ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS OVER NWRN AR HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE LLJ AXIS HAS WEAKENED. BUT...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL...MORE SURFACE BASED...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 33649466 36349572 36349252 33599166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 19:24:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 14:24:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241934.j4OJYpTg010511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241933 NCZ000-SCZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241933Z - 242200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN NC AND FAR NERN SC AFTER 21Z. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AFTER 23Z...WHEN STRONGEST LIFT INTERACTS WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF OCEAN BREEZE FRONT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND SPATIALLY LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MEAGER...UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEWPTS...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OF NERN SC NWD INTO THE WRN ALBEMARLE SOUND OF NC WHERE OCEAN BREEZE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND DEWPTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF ERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AS STRONG HEATING SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS MAX CROSSING THE AREA WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. IN ADDITION STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND MOVES INTO GREATER INSTABILITY...MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...ALONG AND EAST OF THE OCEAN BREEZE FRONT OVER THE INLAND 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES AFTER 22Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 36027564 36417639 36437774 35907892 35217961 34437983 33847979 33417935 33957789 34637706 34887624 35437546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 19:58:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 14:58:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242008.j4OK8fZt001588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242007 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB AND SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242007Z - 242100Z A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM SCNTRL SD INTO SWRN NEB. PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING AUGMENTED WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES YIELDS ALMOST NO INHIBITION. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY FORM FIRST ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN NEB INTO SERN SD WHERE SRN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL JETLET MOVING ACROSS ERN SD SKIRTS THAT AREA. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD SWWD TOWARD THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER NERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40990203 41350069 42629946 43549857 43559688 42889649 42349694 41399851 40330005 40080202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 20:32:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 15:32:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242043.j4OKh3MQ024440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242042 ARZ000-OKZ000-242215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320... VALID 242042Z - 242215Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SEWD ATTM...SITUATED JUST SW OF KTUL-KMKO AND THEN INTO NWRN AR. CU FIELD WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SWELLING WITH GLACIATED TOWERS SHOWING UP ATTM ACROSS ECNTRL OK IN DOWNSTREAM VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PRIND THAT STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GROW STRONGER...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING SEWD WITHIN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN AR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH IS ERODED. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL AR...INTERMIXED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. MODEST 35-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE MCV OVER NERN OK WILL AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING EARLY PART OF STORM LIFECYCLES. BUT...GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AND ACCELERATE ESEWD INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL AR LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 33799469 36259564 36259248 33639156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 22:04:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 17:04:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242215.j4OMFFqi012714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242213 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN C.O..NWRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322... VALID 242213Z - 242345Z SCATTERED TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- OVER NERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND SEWD INTO NWRN KS. ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER AXIS OF MAX CINH - NOW EVIDENT N-S ACROSS WRN KS -- BUT ALSO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW. WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER NWRN KS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED ARC OF CUMULI EXTENDING FROM SRN PORTION WW 324 SWD THROUGH NORTON/SHERIDAN/NESS/CLARK COUNTIES KS AND WOODS COUNTY OK..MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. THIS ALSO DENOTES 60 DEG F SFC ISODROSOTHERM ACROSS KS. SFC MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM SRN PORTION OF THAT PLUME...AND IS ANALYZED FROM WOODS COUNTY OK NWWD THROUGH DDC TO ITR...THEN INTO ONGOING CONVECTION. PRIND POTENTIAL MCS WILL FAVOR THIS AXIS -- ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION SURVIVING SFC DRY POCKET BETWEEN GLD-MCK WILL MOVE INTO RICHER MOIST PLUME AS WELL. FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH 15-20 KT 850 MB SELYS OBSERVED AT GLD VWP. THIS -- COMBINED WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOWS...MAY OVERCOME CINH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZE AN MCS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39160206 39160504 40960522 40990216 39160211 39990211 40000000 38249994 38250206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 23:03:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 18:03:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242313.j4ONDuHC006726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242313 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-250115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB...CENTRAL/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... VALID 242313Z - 250115Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT FROM CHARLES MIX COUNTY SD SWWD ACROSS ANW AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE SWWD INTO LARGE TSTM COMPLEX OVER NERN CO. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD. POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ALONG FRONT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BILLOWS OVER AREA...INDICATING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS REMAINS STABLY STRATIFIED. ALSO...ANVIL CANOPY FROM LARGE NERN CO TSTM COMPLEX WILL SPREAD OVER AREA AND SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT FURTHER HEATING ALONG FRONT. SOME CLEARANCE OF WW MAY BE NEEDED INVOF FRONT IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF THESE TRENDS DO NOT REVERSE. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONVERGENCE LINE -- ANALYZED AT 2230Z FROM UNION COUNTY SD SWWD TO NEAR HDE. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH ANY ACTIVITY MOVING MORE THAN 20-30 NM EWD FROM THIS LINE INTO RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOIST AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 60S F DEW POINTS --ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND FRONT. MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WITH ACTIVITY IN SERN PORTION WW -- INVOF HDE. 15-20 KT SELYS ARE EVIDENT IN NEARBY UEX VWP DATA IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES DERIVED FROM RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 40009886 39980205 43519989 43539649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 00:02:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 19:02:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250013.j4P0D38q030629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250012 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323... VALID 250012Z - 250145Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE NWWD ACROSS LAA AREA TOWARD EL PASO COUNTY. S OF FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN AREAS NOT ALREADY MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WITH MORE DISCRETE SERN CO STORMS AS WELL. WW CLEARANCE WILL DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP OUTFLOW POOLS TO STABILIZE AIR MASS OVER SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF WW...A PROCESS THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ABOUT THE TIME WW IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AROUND 02Z. THERFORE...BULK OF WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL EXPIRATION. SRN END OF LARGE MCS -- MOVING SEWD FROM NERN CO INTO WW 326 -- WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL THAT SHOULD PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL/WIND AS IT MOVES OVER ERN CHEYENNE COUNTY BEFORE 01Z. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- EVIDENT FROM SERN EL PASO COUNTY SSEWD TOWARD NERN CORNER OF NM AND EWD TOWARD SRN END OF MCS -- MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS EL PASO/LINCOLN/CHEYENNE COUNTIES AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS THAT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36980199 36970495 39140505 39150209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 00:09:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 19:09:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250020.j4P0KBWX001032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250017 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...SW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... VALID 250017Z - 250215Z STORM COMPLEX CENTERED SE OF FSM AND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCV CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND IT ACROSS NERN OK. OVERALL COMPLEX IS MOVING SE AT 35 KTS WITH CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX...ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE. THE LINE WAS ORIENTED EAST/WEST FROM ABOUT 35 SE OF FSM TO ABOUT 40 N OF ADM...WITH A DEPTH OF 1.5 KM. MLCAPE CONTINUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ERN AND SERN PTN WATCH HAS STORMS CONTINUING TO BE STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD WITH MLCAPE STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... 35169596 35439449 35079314 34939276 33039173 33079468  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 00:47:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 19:47:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250057.j4P0vZ2b018214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250056 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323...326... VALID 250056Z - 250230Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO REPLACE ONE OR BOTH OF THESE...IN ORDER TO CONSOLIDATE THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER WRN KS/SERN CO AS MCS GENERALLY MOVES SEWD. LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM N-CENTRAL OK WNWWD ACROSS SWRN KS AND INTO SRN PORTION OF MCS -- WHERE HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS ARE RIGHT-MOVING SSEWD OR SWD ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS KIOWA/CHEYENNE COUNTIES CO. 850 MB DEW POINT 15 C NOTED AT DDC...BENEATH 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER. THIS SUPPORTS MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. AS NEAR SFC LAYER DECOUPLES WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC SHOULD STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS AS HIGH AS 50-60 KT FOR ANY ACTIVITY WHICH CAN SURVIVE PASSAGE THROUGH AXIS OF CINH THAT IS STILL ANALYZED N-S ACROSS WRN KS. FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GROWING/DEEPENING COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AIR THAT PROCESS. THEREFORE...SWRN KS AND MORE OF W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS IS LIKELY TO NEED WW COVERAGE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38210207 36930202 36970493 39160510 39160223 40000199 40029935 38219981 38210202 38229981 40029934 39639886 39069852 38369831 37759841 37409870 37059917 36979939 36970025 36980203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 01:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 20:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250145.j4P1jMM0004646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250144 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR..NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... VALID 250144Z - 250345Z ISOLD HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS BUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FEEDING STORMS ALONG AND OF THE UPPER LEVEL MCV ..STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT TO THE SE. AT THIS TIME..ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH FOR LA NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... 34419494 35219428 34139231 32349113 31549109 32089231 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 02:50:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 21:50:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250301.j4P31B5P002028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250300 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...CENTRAL/SRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... VALID 250300Z - 250400Z SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS IN SMALL AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN HSI-OFK -- IN NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MOVES EWD OFF PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE LINE WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED LOW LEVEL THETAE AND IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN. NRN END OF KS MCS...WHICH EXTENDS INTO NEB SSE HDE...ALSO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALONG WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. WITH LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TEMPORAL DURATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND 4Z...BULK OF WW SHOULD EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS NEEDED...FOR COUNTIES ALONG ITS SERN FRINGES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 40029884 39980212 43549992 43529650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 03:19:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 22:19:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250329.j4P3Te2O012353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250328 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS...OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327... VALID 250328Z - 250530Z ARC OF SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN KS. BOWS WITHIN LARGER MCS WILL BE FOCI FOR ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. SRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX PANHANDLES...AND ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FROM THERE INTO PORTIONS NWRN OK/S-CENTRAL KS BEFORE THIS ONE EXPIRES. MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS -- ANALYZED ON SFC...925 AND 850 MB CHARTS FROM NEAR DDC ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK. PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT ON 925/850 MB ANALYSES OVER CENTRAL KS. LITTLE NWD MOIST ADVECTION LIKELY AT THOSE LEVELS...SINCE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO MOISTURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE SMALLER OVER N-CENTRAL KS THAN AREAS FARTHER S AND SW. THIS FITS CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS INDICATED BY REFLECTIVITY DECREASE OVER NRN PORTION OF COMPLEX. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST S OF MOISTURE GRADIENT...FAVORING FORWARD PROPAGATION ON LEADING EDGE OF CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL THAT HAS EVOLVED TO THE REAR OF THIS ACTIVITY. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SWATH OF SWRN KS AND ERN OK PANHANDLE SE OF BOW...LOCATED IN HAMILTON COUNTY KS AT 330Z. ADDITIONAL BOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG INFLECTION POINT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 36830287 39000287 39939798 37759798 36840280 37759799 37389800 36869809 36219863 36009972 36110055 36580201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 04:54:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 23:54:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250505.j4P55EmA014223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250504 NEZ000-250700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250504Z - 250700Z LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL NEB WITH CONVECTION NOW MOVING ESEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN NEB COUNTIES SHERIDAN/BOX BUTTE/DAWES/SIOUX. ELEVATED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN MT AND N-CENTRAL/NERN WY. SFC TEMPS ARE IN 50S OVER REGION WITH STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FCST TO CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...THOUGH A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY PENETRATE TO SFC. HOWEVER...ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AMIDST STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL RISK. USING LIFTED PARCEL ROOTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDS 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BASED ON COMBINATION OF PROFILER/VWP WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDING. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... 42910398 42960315 42790215 42610115 42189990 41819943 41439956 41270001 41210061 41410145 41740244 42170328 42510396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 05:32:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 00:32:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250543.j4P5hBkY028884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250542 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-250715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN KS...SERN CO...NWRN OK...OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327...328... VALID 250542Z - 250715Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SEVERE MCS. SFC ANALYSIS AND WIND TRENDS FROM REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS SHIFTING SWWD ACROSS OK -- IN RESPONSE TO PREVAILING ENELY FLOW COVERING MUCH OF REGION NEAR SFC. GIVEN ANTICIPATED FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEEDS...45-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IS AVAILABLE TO THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 1-4 KM AGL LAYER. ACCORDINGLY...MOST INTENSE PORTION OF MCS -- CROSSING BEAVER/TX COUNTIES IN OK PANHANDLE AS OF 540Z -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD TOWARD GAG/CSM CORRIDOR -- INCLUDING NERN TX PANHANDLE. MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED PORTIONS SERN CO N-NE OF LHX. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OF WAA ELEVATED OVER TOP OF MCS OUTFLOW POOL....WHERE RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL...PRIND ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 35759825 35410176 37050183 36840286 39020287 39939800 37809799 37639827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 08:30:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 03:30:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250840.j4P8et3S031246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250839 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK PNHDL./NWRN OK INTO THE NERN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328... VALID 250839Z - 250945Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 328 THROUGH 10Z. WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH NO SUBSEQUENT RE-ISSUANCE ANTICIPATED. GRADUAL DECAY OF MCS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SWRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS AND NWRN OK. CLUSTER OF TSTMS ELEVATED ATOP SYSTEM COLD POOL FROM STEVENS AND SEWARD COUNTIES IN SWRN KS SEWD INTO ELLIS AND ROGER MILLS COUNTIES IN WRN OK MAY POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY...NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37300181 37649827 35779827 35460179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 12:41:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 07:41:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251252.j4PCq0rt024134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251251 OKZ000-TXZ000-251415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251251Z - 251415Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS AS THEY SHIFT SEWD ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA PER CURRENT FDR VWP. 12Z AMA...OUN AND FWD SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35360059 35899959 35409839 33909752 33169774 33039881 33399949 33830007 34550059 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:05:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:05:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251715.j4PHFLrQ026553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251714 TXZ000-OKZ000-251845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... VALID 251714Z - 251845Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE FOR PARTS OF N TX INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. SWRN PART OF THE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OVER WRN N TX APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE DFW AREA SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSOLATION ACROSS N TX HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY THAT MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AS CINH IS ERODED VIA DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL. TSTM CLUSTER ORIENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME MORE LINEAR SINCE MID-MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE WNWLY FLOW REGIME. AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD EXPANDS AND STORMS BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING WINDS MAY RESULT FROM THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD TRACK SEWD NEAR/N OF THE METROPLEX BY 18-19Z. AS THE STORMS MATURE...FORWARD SPEED MAY INCREASE AND STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE LINE...INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED OVER NCNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32689907 33669910 34309742 33229422 31219430 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:25:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:25:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251735.j4PHZPCD005656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251734 FLZ000-251900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251734Z - 251900Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... MODIFIED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY FROM INDIAN RIVER COUNTY TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. WITH DEEP WNWLY FLOW THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR INLAND BEFORE IT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT...ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ERN POLK COUNTY...ALONG STRONGER SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED SE-NW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NORTH OF TPA. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH INTENSE LAPSE RATES THROUGH 3 KM. IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL SOON EVOLVE THEN CLUSTER BEFORE PROPAGATING SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN PENINSULA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28298186 27678014 26317983 26098041 26998119 27868226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:29:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:29:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251740.j4PHe3Js008611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251714 TXZ000-OKZ000-251845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... VALID 251714Z - 251845Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE FOR PARTS OF N TX INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. SWRN PART OF THE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OVER WRN N TX APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE DFW AREA SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSOLATION ACROSS N TX HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY THAT MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AS CINH IS ERODED VIA DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL. TSTM CLUSTER ORIENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME MORE LINEAR SINCE MID-MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE WNWLY FLOW REGIME. AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD EXPANDS AND STORMS BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING WINDS MAY RESULT FROM THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD TRACK SEWD NEAR/N OF THE METROPLEX BY 18-19Z. AS THE STORMS MATURE...FORWARD SPEED MAY INCREASE AND STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE LINE...INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED OVER NCNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32689907 33669910 34309742 33229422 31219430  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:35:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:35:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251746.j4PHk8Hs011910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251734 FLZ000-251900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251734Z - 251900Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... MODIFIED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY FROM INDIAN RIVER COUNTY TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. WITH DEEP WNWLY FLOW THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR INLAND BEFORE IT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT...ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ERN POLK COUNTY...ALONG STRONGER SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED SE-NW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NORTH OF TPA. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH INTENSE LAPSE RATES THROUGH 3 KM. IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL SOON EVOLVE THEN CLUSTER BEFORE PROPAGATING SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN PENINSULA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28298186 27678014 26317983 26098041 26998119 27868226  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 18:47:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 13:47:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251857.j4PIvO0L022731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251856 NMZ000-252100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251856Z - 252100Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL/NERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS CU FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NCNTRL NM AND THE RATON MESA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED AT LEAST UPPER 40S DEW POINTS WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID IN TSTM INITIATION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR S THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NM/CO BORER WILL TRAVEL BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUT...PRIND IS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA S OF THE RATON MESA INTO ECNTRL NM WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE CINH AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER 22-23Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ECNTRL NM. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF THREAT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS CLUSTER AND POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A MCS. ..RACY.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 35000543 35840535 36900521 36900403 36750322 35090323 34210324 34040449 34080538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 18:50:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 13:50:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251901.j4PJ11SZ025124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251859 TXZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251859Z - 252030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z... COMPLEX SFC PATTERN HAS EVOLVED ACROSS NORTH TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT INTO NERN TX WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE. RESULTANT SFC BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHARPEN NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF FTW...WWD TOWARD ABI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AND BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED ALLOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS ZONE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE MCS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...HOWEVER STORM EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY BECOME AN MCS AS IT PROPAGATES SWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AFTER 26/00Z. LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASES WITH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32550111 32749905 32149723 30899751 30539929 30980146 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 19:44:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 14:44:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251955.j4PJt3EW025986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251954 FLZ000-252100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330... VALID 251954Z - 252100Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY SAG SWD INTO CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF WW... ROUGHLY 30 MI WIDE ZONE OF MULTI CLUSTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THIS SLOWLY EXPANDING ZONE OF STORMS MAY GRADUALLY SAG SWD WITH TIME AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTS SWWD AT ROUGHLY 10 KT...ALLOWING NEW UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW. RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT SWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26678022 27728201 28418192 27617999 27127926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 21:47:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 16:47:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252157.j4PLvlcp004870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252156 TXZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332... VALID 252156Z - 252330Z A BOWED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SEWD PART OF WW 332 OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM FAR NE TX ACROSS WRN AND SRN LA. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS ACROSS EAST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 68 TO 72 DEGREE F. THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD DOWN THIS MOIST AXIS AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD FUEL THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET IN NE TX AND PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPEED MAX. AS THE JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE SE EDGE OF WW 332...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SE TX AND ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA LATER THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31279644 31679603 31969518 32029462 31469419 31039400 30559425 30259513 30199579 31049635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:01:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:01:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252211.j4PMBpsN012474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252142 FLZ000-252345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330... VALID 252142Z - 252345Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WW... STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM STORM COMPLEX. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INDIVIDUAL STORMS AS NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS CELLS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS MAIN COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD NEXT TWO HOURS. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28028197 28168181 27248037 27077996 26367971 26318132  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:09:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:09:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252219.j4PMJgSL016318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252218 NMZ000-COZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331... VALID 252218Z - 260015Z STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING FROM 500 J/KG ALONG THE NRN PTN OF WW TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SRN PTN OF WATCH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 33560535 36970531 37030308 33540324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:13:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:13:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252223.j4PMNvju018676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252156 TXZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332... VALID 252156Z - 252330Z A BOWED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SEWD PART OF WW 332 OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM FAR NE TX ACROSS WRN AND SRN LA. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS ACROSS EAST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 68 TO 72 DEGREE F. THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD DOWN THIS MOIST AXIS AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD FUEL THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET IN NE TX AND PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPEED MAX. AS THE JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE SE EDGE OF WW 332...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SE TX AND ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA LATER THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31279644 31679603 31969518 32029462 31469419 31039400 30559425 30259513 30199579 31049635  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:39:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:39:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252249.j4PMncq0030732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252218 NMZ000-COZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331... VALID 252218Z - 260015Z STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING FROM 500 J/KG ALONG THE NRN PTN OF WW TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SRN PTN OF WATCH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 33560535 36970531 37030308 33540324  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 00:40:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 19:40:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260050.j4Q0oIfD017429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260049 TXZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333... VALID 260049Z - 260215Z STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE IN THE WRN PART OF WW 333. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MIDLAND TO NEAR SAN ANGELO WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WHICH COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING TOPS WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WCNTRL TX WHICH SUGGESTS AN MCS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WCNTRL TX. THE MCS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 30870169 31259959 31619909 32039905 32479925 32639968 32280152 31870237 31040215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 01:07:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 20:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260117.j4Q1HcEW028901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260114 TXZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0814 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333... VALID 260114Z - 260245Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE AND EAST TX THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 333. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM NEAR ABILENE TO NEAR HUNTSVILLE TX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER NE TX...IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS THE CELLS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS EAST TX...MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EAST TX OVER THE 2 TO 4 HOURS. IF THE CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THIS EVENING...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER TO THE WEST...INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY GREATER IN EAST TX WHERE ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT IS PRESENT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT GOING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 333 THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD... 30679700 31989832 32469860 33079804 33059712 31249559 30779575 30479632 30419674  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 04:37:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 23:37:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260448.j4Q4m7U6014213@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260446 TXZ000-NMZ000-260615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX...WEST TX AND SE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334... VALID 260446Z - 260615Z WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SE NM...PARTS OF WEST TX AND ACROSS CNTRL TX. HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 334 AND A NEW WW 335 HAS BE ISSUED WEST OF WW 334 WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE MIDLAND AREA TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WEST TX AND THIS MAY BE INCREASING ASCENT OVER A LARGE AREA. AS A RESULT...STORM COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LARGE MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS WEST TX. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 32660214 32360016 32489808 32309744 31739725 31339747 31139804 30890055 31350295 32160463 32840473 33330427 33230367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 07:39:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 02:39:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260749.j4Q7nWm5009989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260748 TXZ000-NMZ000-260845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PERMIAN BASIN AND SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335... VALID 260748Z - 260845Z THROUGH 09-10Z...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWD INTO CULBERSON....REEVES AND LOVING COUNTIES...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0733Z...MIDLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS OVER EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES IN SERN NM WITH MOST INTENSE STORM /EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ 10-15 MILES E OF CNM MOVING 320/15-20 KTS. CORRESPONDING MAF VWP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA /NAMELY IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER/ IS LARGELY SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. EXTRAPOLATION OF EDDY COUNTY STORM HAS IT MOVING OUT OF WW 335 PRIOR TO 09Z. ATTM...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 33450449 32930152 31620151 32160450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 08:08:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 03:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260818.j4Q8Ias4021522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260817 TXZ000-260915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334... VALID 260817Z - 260915Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN OVERALL DECREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND RESULTANT COLD POOL PRODUCTION HAVE LARGELY STABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS WW 334 AREA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP STABLE SURFACE LAYER. HOWEVER...THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW 334 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32150149 33189792 30849792 29840151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 12:36:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 07:36:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261246.j4QCkTUf028759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261245 TXZ000-261415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261245Z - 261415Z ONGOING TSTMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING. AS OF 1237Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON AND CROCKETT COUNTIES MOVING SEWD AT 20-30 KTS. 12Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATED THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMS THIS MORNING...ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD-PROPAGATION SUGGEST AN INCREASED LIKLIHOOD FOR DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30890250 31370166 30549953 29359938 28870030 29750151 29930250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 16:26:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 11:26:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261636.j4QGaPIe014937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261635 TXZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336... VALID 261635Z - 261800Z ...MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH OF DRT TO NW OF HDO...AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE HINDERED DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ROUGHLY 30-45 MI DOWNSTREAM OF ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE. STRONGEST SURGE IS NOW WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ACROSS NRN MEXICO. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS A NARROW ZONE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR VCT...NWWD TO SE OF HDO. IF ACTIVITY CAN MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE...AN UPWARD EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THIS ZONE INCREASES. IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX... 28600247 30050044 28949992 28210117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 17:55:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 12:55:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261805.j4QI5QRg009487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261803 FLZ000-261930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261803Z - 261930Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FL... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT...ROUGHLY 100 MI WNW EYW...BEGINNING TO SHEAR EWD TOWARD SRN TIP OF FL. IT APPEARS A NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY SPREAD ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG FOCUSED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES. DEEP WLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE EWD MIGRATION OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26498173 26878008 25138031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 18:13:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 13:13:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261823.j4QINOtl022146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261822 IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-262015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN IA...AND FAR NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261822Z - 262015Z SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MAX HEATING PERIOD ACROSS ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN IA...AND FAR NERN NEB. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY UNFOCUSED...HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TONIGHT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF AN ORGANIZED THREAT AREA DEVELOPS. MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT /-24C TO -25C/ WILL ROTATE ESEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...SW OF QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW EVIDENT ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. DESPITE LACK OF FOCUSED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN DEEP WNWLY FLOW REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5C/KM FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500MB WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD /MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING/. IN ADDITION...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ESEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40KT AND LOW BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45439487 45329355 43819162 42829136 42469230 42389494 42309725 42449884 42809947 44520062 44840057 45259979 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 20:14:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 15:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505262025.j4QKP9Gu004954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262024 NMZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262024Z - 262200Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... STRONG SFC RIDGE WEDGED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM HAS FORCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NM WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND STRONG BUOYANCY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAN MATEO MTNS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NRN NM. SUFFICIENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE SPINE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER COOLER AIRMASS OF ERN NM LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 33730827 36080758 36660470 34550531 32840532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 21:58:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 16:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505262208.j4QM8EnK001306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262207 WIZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-262330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...FAR SE SD AND NE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262207Z - 262330Z SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS FAR NE NEB...SE SD AND IA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN REGIONS OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT IN A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S F. THE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE LIMITING SBCAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...500 MB TEMPS BELOW MINUS 20 C ARE CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 30 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CNTRL PLAINS ...WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS IA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41419447 41749605 42219723 43089715 43269643 42749458 42769325 43319234 43389172 42779096 42129133 41709209 41439334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 15:56:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 10:56:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271606.j4RG6iQ4027298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271605 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-271800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN NJ...AND S-CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271605Z - 271800Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z ACROSS CENTRAL PA/S-CENTRAL NY WITH CELL MOVEMENT GENERALLY ENEWD AT 30-40 KT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN DEVELOP. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 1545Z...INCREASE IN TOWERING CU WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS N-CENTRAL PA AND FAR S-CENTRAL NY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE COLOCATED WITH A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. ADDITIONALLY...RUC SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NERN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO WRN NJ THROUGH 21Z. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUSTAIN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK...WITH MUCAPE VALUES ONLY 500-1000 J/KG DURING MAX HEATING. HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM. LIKEWISE...INSOLATION IS LEADING TO STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH STRONGER CORES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS... RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE DCAPE VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WIND. ORGANIZATION TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40097686 40127751 40397819 40967857 41867855 42347798 42447682 42397587 42177497 41897449 40957446 40387464 40187521 40157587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 17:23:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 12:23:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271733.j4RHXAHk020189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271732 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-271930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL...IND...FAR NRN KY...AND MUCH OF OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271732Z - 271930Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEING MONITORED IN SEVERAL AREAS INCLUDING N-CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL/SWRN IND...AND N-CENTRAL IL. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED IN LINES. AT 1715Z...BROAD REGION OF MODERATELY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BELT OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS OCCURRED SOUTH OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COOL UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO/SERN MANITOBA. SFC-6KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 35-45 KTS ACROSS IL...IND...AND OH. DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM NRN MO TO WRN PA. HOWEVER...LACK OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S/...IS COMPLICATING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ONE VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH ERN IA AT 17Z MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN IND. LASTLY...TOWERING CU ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS N-CENTRAL OH. WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAST-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS/CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS...EACH OF THESE THREAT AREAS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR INCREASED INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. DESPITE LOW SBCAPE /GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG/...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...FAST STORM MOTIONS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY COOLS AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40779009 41908976 41898836 41678700 41418336 41528176 41808064 40378066 39848131 39228242 38988349 38758447 38578571 38418669 38688766 38888855 40098959 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 17:42:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 12:42:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271752.j4RHqtcX000379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271752 NMZ000-271945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271752Z - 271945Z TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VSBL SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE NCNTRL AND SAN MATEO/ZUNI MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTN. RECENT BACKDOOR FRONTS/TSTM EPISODES HAVE ADVECTED HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD TO THE DIVIDE IN RECENT NIGHTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 45F. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL BE SEASONALLY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS. MOREOVER...ENHANCED H5 FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WAS CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL NM DURING THE LATE AFTN HOURS. IF ACTIVITY ACROSS NCNTRL/CNTRL NM CAN BECOME ORGANIZED...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTN. FARTHER EAST...STRATOCUMULUS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL PROBABLY MITIGATE HEATING. THE CAP SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG HERE TO KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT RELEGATED TO FARTHER WEST. ..RACY.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 35590511 34050568 34000694 34900806 35430815 36070695 36950628 36830527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 18:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 13:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271831.j4RIV2MV023462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271830 NMZ000-AZZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MOGOLLON RIM...SERN AZ/SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 271830Z - 272100Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM AND THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SSWWD AND THERE WILL BE RISKS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT ADVECTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WWD BEYOND THE NM DIVIDE AND INTO SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT CONSIDERABLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY THIS AFTN. A PARCEL CHARACTERIZED BY 93/48F TEMP/DEW POINT RESPECTIVELY...RESULTS IN A 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ON THE 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING. SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME SEEM TO POINT TOWARD AN UPSWING IN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTNS. THE TUCSON VWP IS STILL SHOWING 30 KTS OF FLOW AT H5 AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS SHOULD MOVE SSWWD OFF THE RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS EAST OF THE BAJA DISTURBANCE... IF ANY TRAINING CAN OCCUR...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. HERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER AND STORM MOTION COULD BE SLOWER. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS THAN FARTHER N-E IN NM AND A WW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31311107 32021076 32481087 33501092 34571046 34430898 34330818 34020733 33200725 32500758 32160797 31390867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 18:26:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 13:26:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271837.j4RIb0Ct027341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271835 TXZ000-NMZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL NM AND FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 271835Z - 272000Z SLOW MOVING TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SCNTRL NM AND FAR W TX MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RECENT VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX HAS MOVED NWD INTO ERN CHIHUAHUA JUST S OF THE TX BORDER. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND JUST EAST OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS ERN EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND SRN CULBERSON COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY TRACKING NWWD...ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY VERY WELL BE THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT THAN WIND/HAIL. BUT...A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...PRIMARILY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEPER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN PRESIDIO/JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31870711 32450717 33050573 32150451 31640389 31460377 30660351 30150378 30010458 30790486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 19:18:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 14:18:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271928.j4RJSh5u026549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271927 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271927Z - 272130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND INTO WRN IA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 1915Z...WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST MOVING VORT MAX ROTATING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD/NERN NEB...AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED ACROSS NWRN MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SUSTAINED AXIS OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN A SHORT...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR YKN TO 30W OFK. REGION IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW /40-50KT AT 500MB/ ...RESULTING IN FAST LINE MOVEMENT OF 40-45KT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS NWRN IA THORUGH 2130Z. INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...FAST LINE MOTION AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 35F SUGGEST AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/WRN IA WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH THIS LOW-TOPPED SYSTEM. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...PROSPECT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41959797 42459773 42989721 43469636 43379541 42979438 42289391 41349449 41139469 40999499 41019551 41059593 41569740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 19:26:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 14:26:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271936.j4RJaZk3031042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271934 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271934Z - 272130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND INTO WRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN IA INTO CENTRAL IA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 1915Z...WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST MOVING VORT MAX ROTATING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD/NERN NEB...AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED ACROSS NWRN MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SUSTAINED AXIS OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN A SHORT...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR YKN TO 30W OFK. VORT MAX IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW /40-50KT AT 500MB/ ...RESULTING IN FAST LINE MOVEMENT OF 40-45KT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN NEB AND WRN/NWRN IA THROUGH 2130Z. INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...FAST LINE MOTION AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 35F SUGGEST AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/WRN IA WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...PROSPECT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41959797 42409757 42829656 43199583 43169517 42729389 42179346 41079357 40979404 40819429 41019551 41059593 41569740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 20:11:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 15:11:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272021.j4RKLws9024301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272021 NYZ000-PAZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TIER OF NY AND NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337... VALID 272021Z - 272145Z CONTINUE WW. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN REGION OF MID-LEVEL COOLING AND MODERATELY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS S-CENTRAL NY INTO NERN PA. STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 15-20 KT...WITH SOME PROPAGATIONAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUSTAINED MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN LONG-LIVED CELLS. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN SCHUYLER AND STEUBEN COUNTIES IN NY. A RIGHT-MOVING STORM WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER ERN ONTARIO COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN CELLULAR STRUCTURE...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFTS. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40727701 41617754 42417769 42907748 43127691 43457590 43317516 42407442 41977416 41717425 41377539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:25:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:25:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272235.j4RMZgft027782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272234 TXZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272234Z - 280000Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH CELLS THAT MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF MORE CELLS DEVELOP THAN ARE EXPECTED...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED EAST OF WW 338. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA... 34800214 34950264 35860264 36330230 36230041 35270012 34820039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:40:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:40:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272251.j4RMp3IP001675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272250 CTZ000-NYZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272250Z - 280015Z NARROW AXIS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED NEXT 1-2 HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL CT...INCLUDING GREATER HARTFORD METRO AREA. SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED AREA OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW. SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER FAR WRN CT AT 2240Z WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 35-40KT...REACHING THE RI BORDER AROUND 0030Z. SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE TRACKING ALONG ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE FRONT...WHICH HAS PROPAGATED INLAND TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF HARTFORD...WINDHAM...AND TOLLAND COUNTIES. GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL NEXT 1-2 HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THIS INTERSECTION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS RI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CESSATION OF SEVERE THREAT BY 01Z AS BOW ECHO REACHES THIS AREA. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41827362 41877324 41907276 41897226 41827183 41657183 41507183 41477211 41477247 41467316 41497348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:49:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:49:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272259.j4RMxCgI006090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272234 TXZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272234Z - 280000Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH CELLS THAT MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF MORE CELLS DEVELOP THAN ARE EXPECTED...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED EAST OF WW 338. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA... 34800214 34950264 35860264 36330230 36230041 35270012 34820039  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:58:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272308.j4RN8tLI010856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272250 CTZ000-NYZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272250Z - 280015Z NARROW AXIS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED NEXT 1-2 HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL CT...INCLUDING GREATER HARTFORD METRO AREA. SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED AREA OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW. SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER FAR WRN CT AT 2240Z WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 35-40KT...REACHING THE RI BORDER AROUND 0030Z. SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE TRACKING ALONG ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE FRONT...WHICH HAS PROPAGATED INLAND TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF HARTFORD...WINDHAM...AND TOLLAND COUNTIES. GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL NEXT 1-2 HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THIS INTERSECTION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS RI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CESSATION OF SEVERE THREAT BY 01Z AS BOW ECHO REACHES THIS AREA. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41827362 41877324 41907276 41897226 41827183 41657183 41507183 41477211 41477247 41467316 41497348  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 00:59:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 19:59:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505280109.j4S19tGm021748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280108 TXZ000-NMZ000-280245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338... VALID 280108Z - 280245Z A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ERN AND CNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MCS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF NM WHERE SBCAPE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 34840606 33580617 33210488 33680351 35680291 35950367 35650472 35390542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 06:16:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 01:16:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505280626.j4S6QNj3006249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280625 TXZ000-280930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 280625Z - 280930Z AT LEAST TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS OF TSTMS -- INCLUDING MERGING CELLS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z IN FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT. 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL BE COMMON...WITH A FEW LOCALIZED RATES TOPPING 3 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES OR AREAS WHERE CELLS MERGE INTO MAIN LINES. 6Z SFC AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM BWD AREA TO MASON COUNTY AND FROM NEAR SJT SWD TO JUST W DRT...THEN SWD ACROSS BORDER TO APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WNW LRD...IN COAHUILA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD 15-25 KT ACROSS AREA FROM DIMMIT/MAVERICK/KINNEY/VAL VERDE COUNTIES NNEWD OVER HILL COUNTRY. FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE...WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE E IS ABSORBED INTO MAIN TSTM LINES. VWP AT DRT SHOWS 30 KT 850 MB LLJ FROM SE...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER SPEEDS AND MORE VEERED FLOW FARTHER SE AND NE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX. THIS YIELDS OPTIMAL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH AREA BETWEEN JCT-ERV-DRT...INCLUDING SRN EDGE OF HILL COUNTRY ALONG BALCONES ENSCARPMENT. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 13-15 DEG C AND 1.5-1.75 INCH PW...CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. NRN BAND WILL HAVE MORE SPORADIC AND MARGINALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH WEAKER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...BUT IS ENTERING OCCASIONALLY RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN HILL COUNTRY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 29280096 30160103 30620086 30800044 30809965 31189917 31829891 31939834 31649779 31319779 30789786 30239804 29759849 29499927 29279959 28179984 28090008 28280029 28540034 28810055 28910062 29130070 29170077 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 06:51:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 01:51:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505280701.j4S71wmJ019929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280700 TXZ000-NMZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX...SMALL PART OF SERN NM CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 280700Z - 280900Z HEAVY RAIN RATES 1.5-2.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 9Z IN AREA FROM EXTREME NRN LEA COUNTY NM EWD ACROSS PORTIONS COCHRAN/LYNN/HOCKLEY/TERRY/YOAKUM/LUBBOCK COUNTIES IN TX. ISOLATED HIGHER RATES BRIEFLY ARE POSSIBLE IN MERGING CELLS AND MOST INTENSE CORES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY TSTMS IS MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS CASTRO/LAMB/NRN COCHRAN/EXTREME SERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AS OF 645Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA. QUASISTATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EVIDENT FROM LYNN COUNTY WWD TO NRN LEA COUNTY...WHERE IT BLENDS WITH N-S ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF LEA COUNTY. IN BETWEEN...SFC MESOANALYSIS - INCLUDING W TX MESONET DATA -- SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM NRN KENT COUNTY WNWWD ACROSS SRN LBB COUNTY...WWD INTO EXTREME NRN LEA COUNTY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MERGE WITH CONFLUENCE LINE AND NRN PORTION OF E-W CONVECTIVE BAND FROM LBB AREA WWD...WHERE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. MODIFIED MAF RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE... CONTRIBUTING TO PW 1.25-1.5 INCH. VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUT VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. THIS AREA ALSO IS INVOF WEAK...SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER WIND TRENDS AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSES FROM NEAR PVW SWWD TOWARD ELP. ASSOCIATED WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA TO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 33240150 33130217 33120295 33240346 33650314 33930271 33930210 33870175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 16:59:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 11:59:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281709.j4SH9UNW011291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281708 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NRN WV PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN PA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281708Z - 281845Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NEXT IN SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WAS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MI AND IND PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS AT MID-DAY...EMBEDDED IN MODEST WLY FLOW REGIME. THOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WRN OH ATTM MAY ROOT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AS DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. THUS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN ADDED THREAT TO HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME. ATTM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLD GIVEN THE WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY. ..RACY.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 38968384 40528410 41198359 41598292 41788069 40957994 40138040 39878087 39168235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 17:09:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 12:09:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281719.j4SHJ4Cg015217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281718 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN VA...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE...CNTRL MD AND DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281718Z - 281845Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREATS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTN. RADAR LOOPS/WATER VAPOR INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL PA...WITH THE TAIL-END MOVING ACROSS NRN VA. THOUGH MOST OF CNTRL PA/WRN MD IS STABLE GIVEN LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN... BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN VA INTO SERN PA. ENHANCED FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL MD INTO NRN VA. THOUGH THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LOW...COMBINATION OF HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW AND GIVE DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF BALTIMORE...ACROSS SERN PA AND INTO PARTS OF SWRN NJ THROUGH 21Z. ..RACY.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38977773 39537719 40047722 40337635 40707599 40757515 40287469 39547483 38597582 38597687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 17:25:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 12:25:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281735.j4SHZ9bU022022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281734 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-281930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...S-CENTRAL NEB...AND NERN/ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281734Z - 281930Z ONGOING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN KS WWD INTO NERN/ERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE NEEDED. AT 17Z...NRN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS INFERRED FROM GLD VAD WIND PROFILE...IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN KS...AND ALONG A NW-SE LINE FROM 30S LBF TO 10S CNK. THIS AREA IS ALSO LOCATED ON SWRN PERIPHERY OF UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE A MODERATE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXISTS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE 6KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE KS/S-CENTRAL NEB BORDER. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN KS INTO ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING LESSENS SURFACE-BASED CIN. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38950004 38880118 38660225 38620311 38570380 38660428 39060444 39240448 39550447 39930419 40200383 40580314 40800257 41000111 40749948 40459835 39809677 39439642 38979634 38799671 38909742 39029852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 18:32:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 13:32:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281842.j4SIgEWR019563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281841 COZ000-NMZ000-282045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281841Z - 282045Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NERN NM AND ERN CO DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 1830Z...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS LESSENING RAPIDLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EWD ACROSS SERN CO. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR DEN TO LIC TO IML...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING TOWERING CU AND INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM 40SW DEN SWD INTO FAR NRN NM WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ENHANCE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NERN NM NWD TO ALONG THE PALMER RIDGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY 35-45KT...AND SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. RATHER LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38780497 39750481 39770408 40270301 40330248 40080223 37790219 36180387 36030536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 20:48:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 15:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282058.j4SKwRVh011356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282057 TXZ000-282300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282057Z - 282300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX...NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING MCS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION 40E ACT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING TROPICAL AIR AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT LIKELY ENHANCED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IS MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY RUC TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY WITH MOST OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. STRONGER CORES MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS PROVIDED INFLOW CONTINUES TO TAP TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE SOUTH. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30939845 31449778 32089713 32229634 32229560 31689516 31059498 30449535 30339573 30499650 30499715 30349779 30299837 30659867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 21:19:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 16:19:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282129.j4SLTXVo023018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282128 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-282300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS....AND THE CENTRAL/WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...340... VALID 282128Z - 282300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WITH BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TRACKING GENERALLY SEWD AT 20-25KT. THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN KS. CONVECTION ACROSS ERN CO WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER BETTER MOIST INFLOW AS IT MIGRATES SEWD INTO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD INTO SWRN KS AT THE PRESENT TIME. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL WATCH AREA WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 339 FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN KS. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH GIVEN LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THREAT OF TORNADOES...BUT MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38550334 39210248 39710156 39860068 39650036 39120037 38330023 37530076 36750160 36590222 36470299 36120351 36040458 36110555 37000526 38310446 38410416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 22:43:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 17:43:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282253.j4SMrgAI023748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282252 ORZ000-290015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN ORE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282252Z - 290015Z SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN ORE. AS THE STORMS SPREAD NNWWD...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW MOVING EWD INTO NRN CA. A CLEAR SLOT IS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE RISING TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AS CELLS INITIATE OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS AROUND -16C) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE CONSIDERING 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM EAST OF THE CASCADES. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43242304 43812288 44322185 43591967 42971933 42421963 42102021 42262135 42922271 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 23:32:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 18:32:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282342.j4SNgvPv007186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282341 TXZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282341Z - 290145Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 10N TPL TO 10N JCT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DRT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR SJT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EWD AT 30-35KT AND AWAY FROM QUASI-STATIONARY MCV NEAR THE TX/SERN NM BORDER. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FASTER PROPAGATION OF THIS LINE ALONG E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THIS AXIS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT ALSO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF FORWARD PROPAGATION OF EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE CAN INCREASE. SOME TOWERING CU HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG REMAINDER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK AND IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE STORMS. MEANWHILE...MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG EXIST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE STRONGER CELLS MAY PERSIST INTO THE U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29750212 30240121 30910053 31580054 32240031 32439979 32009922 31689868 31539775 31129673 30789738 30249804 29069888 28509929 28239978 28340031 29110076 29470134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 01:10:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 20:10:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290120.j4T1KlJO005799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290119 TXZ000-290245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290119Z - 290245Z CELLS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC PRESSURE TROUGH AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING FOR SCNTRL TX SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28250014 29170078 29740061 30299963 30119837 28959805 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 01:37:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 20:37:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290147.j4T1lml9014951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290147 KSZ000-290245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0847 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341... VALID 290147Z - 290245Z REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 341 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO WATCH EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OR REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN STRENGTH...DESPITE A SLOW INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. MODIFIED 00Z DDC SOUNDING FOR OBSERVATIONS AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN PORTION OF WW 341 INDICATES MARGINAL MUCAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF AN INVERSION PRESENT ON BOTH THE DDC AND AMA SOUNDINGS AROUND 700 MB...OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 341 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC... 37930091 37580145 37390195 37040201 37050129 37049993 37830007 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 02:59:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 21:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290309.j4T39e30010765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290308 TXZ000-290445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343...344... VALID 290308Z - 290445Z SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S F WHICH ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. THIS WILL AID MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES EWD ACROSS SOUTH TX SHOWN BY THE RUC. ALTHOUGH...500 MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A HAIL THREAT WITH THE LINES GRADUALLY MOVING EWD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. CELLS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASING ISOLATED DUE TO AN CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28369937 30589879 31499844 31889765 31279697 28409818 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 03:16:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 22:16:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290326.j4T3QGT7016943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290325 LAZ000-TXZ000-290500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA...FAR EAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342... VALID 290325Z - 290500Z A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL LA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM THE NRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO CNTRL LA AND ACROSS SRN MS. A CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PRESENT WITH THE LINE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LINE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF WW 342...DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION MAY CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... 30839346 31309380 32149368 32139252 31729217 31119231 30889257 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 05:47:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 00:47:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290557.j4T5vukX001569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290557 TXZ000-290730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL...SE AND DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... VALID 290557Z - 290730Z TWO BOW-SHAPED MCS ARE MERGING ACROSS WW 345 AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS S TX...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG I-10 EWD TOWARD HOU...AND FROM MID TX COAST AS FAR N AS CLL. MAIN THREAT REMAINS OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS. SRN BOW IS CATCHING UP WITH LONGITUDINAL POSITION OF NORTHERN ONE...AND COMBINED MCS MAY EXIT WW AS EARLY AS AROUND 730Z. ADDITIONAL WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SE TX. CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED SUBSEVERE GUSTS OF UNDER 50 KT WHILE PASSING ACROSS OBSERVATION SITES AROUND...S AND SW OF SAT...HOWEVER SMALL POCKETS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SFC WINDS STILL MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEG F ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ANALYZED ROUGHLY E-W THROUGH CLL TO ABOUT 20 N LCH. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED CRP/LCH RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG BUT ALSO CONSIDERABLE CINH OF OVER 100 J/KG. THIS INDICATES STRONG FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW EDGE AND RESULTANT FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL BE NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN TSTMS AS THEY APCH SE TX. LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY ARE SLIGHTLY LARGER ACROSS DEEP S TX...BUT WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FORCING. STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT EXISTS WITH ACTIVITY S OF WW 345 AND SE LRD...MOVING EWD ACROSS LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD CRP AREA AND NRN PADRE ISLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29529439 28899531 28339638 27899693 27369728 27029736 26669804 26579916 26839930 26919939 27069947 27139932 27289917 27549916 27709914 27959869 27989892 30769832 30759663 30709441 30649400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 09:03:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 04:03:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290913.j4T9DMA5009792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290912 TXZ000-291115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346... VALID 290912Z - 291115Z AS OF 9Z...APEX OF BROADLY ARCHING BOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT TOWARD GLS AREA. SOME WEAKENING TREND EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS...AND WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED IF THESE TENDENCIES CONTINUE. EXPECT ANY REMAINING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAINLY S OF I-10...ACROSS PORTIONS BRAZORIA/FT BEND/SRN HARRIS/GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT AREA TO HIGH ISLAND. AIR MASS IN INFLOW REGION CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN 11-15 DEG C RANGE -- CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. VWP DATA FROM HGX INDICATES ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VEERING TO SUPPORT 200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...ALTHOUGH LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTIVE FORCING SHOULD MINIMIZE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND MAINTAIN BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...STRONG CINH REMAINS OVER REGION AND FORCING MAY NOT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALONG OUTFLOW EDGE TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27909680 29949680 30979446 28979448 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 12:29:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 07:29:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291239.j4TCdSrm022096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291238 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291238Z - 291445Z MCS REMAINS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WIND DAMAGE THREAT FROM BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. ALSO...MORE DISCRETE STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN LA AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN MS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS DECELERATING AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS TIER OF MS COUNTIES FROM AMITE EWD THROUGH MCB AREA TO GREENE COUNTY. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY FARTHER W ACROSS CENTRAL LA TO NEAR BEAUREGARD/VERNON PARISH LINE. ALTHOUGH TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN MOIST SECTOR ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM SRN MS ACROSS SRN LA...SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NEAR TERM MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH ACTIVITY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ARE GREATEST. AMBIENT SHEAR S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND E OF CONVECTION OVER WRN LA IS RELATIVELY WEAK BASED ON VWP/RAOB DATA FROM LCH/SIL. HOWEVER...SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY MID-MORNING...SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEG F AND INLAND TEMPS RISING PAST 80 DEG F WITH STRONG INSOLATION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN LA...AHEAD OF TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...EJECTING NEWD FROM MEX OVER DEEP S TX. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29559319 30279323 30779324 30969314 31159266 31529052 31608904 31548859 31368840 30908837 30578849 29978947 29419103 29249234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 15:41:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 10:41:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291551.j4TFpNBt002719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291548 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347... VALID 291548Z - 291715Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MS... DIURNAL HEATING MAY BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPWARD EVOLUTION OF ONGOING MCS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN MS. REGIONAL RADAR DATA CLEARLY DEPICTS A MVC OVER WCNTRL LA...NEAR SABINE COUNTY...WITH A BROADENING ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO SERN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OVERALL FORWARD PROPAGATION. AT THIS TIME LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY AS MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND INTENSIFY. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32099219 32228931 30338817 29769094 30759172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 16:38:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 11:38:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291648.j4TGmB88026614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291647 TXZ000-291745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 291647Z - 291745Z ...A MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX... THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN TX AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATS INLAND. 1630Z DAY1 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29549773 29899608 29129509 27619723 28159856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 17:48:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 12:48:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291758.j4THwnIl027376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291756 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...FAR SERN CO...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291756Z - 292000Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF SERN CO/NERN NM AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME. AT 1730Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM TAD TO 25N CAO TO EHA. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NM...AND INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS PRESENTLY IN THE 50S SHOULD MIX DOWN GIVEN GENERALLY DIFFUSE SURFACE WIND FIELD. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND SPREADING OFF THE FOOTHILLS....WITH BRIEF STRONG CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED. DEVELOPING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F OR GREATER MAY ALSO YIELD STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 10-15 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37450529 37500448 37210402 37070339 37140254 37080211 36700200 35520193 34930206 34810231 34910417 35230496 35450538 35890570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 18:30:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 13:30:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291840.j4TIeSM7012801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291839 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV...S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID...AND NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291839Z - 292045Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID...NERN NV...AND INTO NWRN/NRN UT. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SLOW-MOVING...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NWRN NV AND NERN CA IS SPREADING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NERN GREAT BASIN. LARGE-SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX AS UPPER LOW MIGRATES EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING TOWERING CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NV AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF 1830Z NEAR THE NV/ID BORDER. UVV IN THIS AREA IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS NWD INTO S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED/LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 40051499 41491554 42431675 43111670 43311613 43341515 42861390 42301280 41271162 40821136 40521144 40201232 40071355 40151420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 18:34:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 13:34:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291844.j4TIiKB4014423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291842 TXZ000-292015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PLAINS OF SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291842Z - 292015Z ...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY... RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS WASHING OUT...BUT STILL DISCERNABLE FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST...ARCING TO THE NORTH OF VCT. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS SPREADING NWD WITH MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. IT APPEARS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY OVER VICTORIA AND JACKSON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT HOURS OR SO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN TX. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER VORT REMAINS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...SHEARING EWD TOWARD LRD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/SERN TX. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29299867 30229487 29099496 27699771 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 19:25:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 14:25:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291935.j4TJZKRn002864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291934 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-292030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...WRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348... VALID 291934Z - 292030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL NOT BE EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM INTO AL... LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS MS/SRN AL...WITH MVC LOCATED JUST NW OF JAN. DOWNSTREAM SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS DRAPED E-W ACROSS AL AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON SPREAD NORTH OF WIND SHIFT WHERE BUOYANCY IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. WW WILL NOT BE EXTENDED INTO AL. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... 33549052 33498792 31328633 30698774 32298939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 20:40:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 15:40:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292050.j4TKo4d0000779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292048 TXZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292048Z - 292215Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX... THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ALONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHIFT FROM EAST OF SJT TO WEST OF SEP. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTENING ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR INTO CNTRL TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS FROM MCLENNAN COUNTY...SWWD TO LLANO COUNTY WHERE AN INTENSIFYING UPDRAFT IS NOTED. AIRMASS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ALONG THIS SRN WIND SHIFT AND WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTI-CELL OR PERHAPS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30790014 32249819 32379650 31419585 29929930 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 21:31:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 16:31:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292141.j4TLffm4021546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292140 TXZ000-292315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292140Z - 292315Z STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. BROAD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM BROWN AND SAN SABA COUNTIES THROUGH MCCULLOCH COUNTY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO INTERSECT A WEAK STATIONARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KERR COUNTY NEWD TO BURNET COUNTY WHERE ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTM CELLS ARE NOW DEVELOPING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAK CAP WILL FUEL ADDITIONAL INTENSE MULTICELL CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29929902 29559987 30969970 32129841 32599602 31489565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 23:11:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 18:11:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292321.j4TNLlKl025290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292320 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-300045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...350... VALID 292320Z - 300045Z STRONG STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WATCH 348 FROM THE MS RIVER TO SCNTRL MS AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS IS LIFTED ATOP RESIDUAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF GREATER CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS AN AREA OF VIGOROUS ACTIVITY ACROSS WILKINSON...FRANKLIN AND AMITE COUNTIES IN SWRN MS. CELL IN WILKINSON COUNTY HAS RECENTLY TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WHERE A WEAK SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED. THE BOUNDARY THE CELL APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ALONG COULD BE A SOURCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND...GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATER WITH THIS STORM AS IT TRACKS OVER SWRN AMITE COUNTY AND THEN INTO EAST FELICIAN PARISH IN LA. ANOTHER ROTATING STORM IS NOTED IN RADAR DATA ACROSS SRN FRANKLIN AND NRN AMITE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST. ACROSS WRN PARTS OF LA...ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG GULF BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... AND PRESENCE OF STRONG AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30289526 31809523 31959116 32219165 34209170 31868810 30008814 31018949 30428961 30189546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 23:36:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 18:36:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292346.j4TNkX8v001565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292342 TXZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 349... VALID 292342Z - 300115Z EXTREME INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW/FRONT MERGER ACROSS THE SWRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 349 WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST VIGOROUS TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS JIM WELLS...LIVE OAK...AND BEE COUNTIES WEST AND NORTH OF CRP. A LARGE HP SUPERCELL WAS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF PADRE ISLAND. AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATES FROM THIS STORM AND EXTENDS SWD...WWD...AND THE NWD. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SLOW APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND NUMEROUS CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL FURTHER AID DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CHANCE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27439927 29130017 31439536 29579438  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 00:36:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 19:36:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300046.j4U0kC6G020889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300045 TXZ000-300215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... VALID 300045Z - 300215Z TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS TSTM WATCH 351 THIS EVENING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WATCH MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXISTS WITHIN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH MUCH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 349. DESPITE FAVORABLE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT FROM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MODEST INSTABILITY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING APPEAR TO BE LIMITING TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...APPARENT LEFT-MOVING CELL NOW MOVING ACROSS GRIMES COUNTY IN TORNADO WATCH 349 MAY MOVE INTO ERN PARTS OF WATCH 351... AROUND LEON COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS CELL WAS ALSO MOVING NWD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AND COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NRN COUNTIES IN THE WATCH MAY BEGIN TO BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT STATUS MESSAGE. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31059541 30139859 31369857 32229551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 01:52:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 20:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300202.j4U228qx014231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300201 TXZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0901 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 300201Z - 300330Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 352 WITH BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING SUPERCELLS MOVING FROM BROOKS COUNTY INTO KENEDY COUNTY OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS EXTENDS WWD/NWWD AND INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SRN WEBB COUNTY. HIGH INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STREAM TOWARD THESE BOUNDARIES AND STORMS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STORM UPDRAFTS. BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR NOTED ON BRO EVENING RAOB WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 26239723 25559898 27469897 28249726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 02:56:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 21:56:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300306.j4U36WhL004672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300305 TXZ000-300400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 349... VALID 300305Z - 300400Z WIDESPREAD DEEP AND INTENSE CONVECTION HAS LIKELY OVERTURNED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS...A FEW INTENSE CELLS/CLUSTERS REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 349. ONE PARTICULARLY LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ACCELERATING OVER FORT BEND AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES RECENTLY. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HOU AREA AT OVER 45KT THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS SHOWING A TENDENCY TO BOW AND ACCELERATE OVER DUVAL COUNTY IN THE SWRN CORNER OF THE WATCH. YET ANOTHER AREA OF INCREASING CONVECTION WAS ACROSS HAYS AND TRAVIS COUNTIES IN THE NRN PART OF THE WATCH. THESE CELLS MAY MOVE INTO BASTROP COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR. IN ADDITION TO STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS....ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THEAT OF LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING BUT STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCAL AREAS OF ENHANCED POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 04Z. A NEW WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED IF STORMS REMAIN INTENSE...OR ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27359931 29140027 30439763 31429540 29619436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 03:44:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 22:44:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300354.j4U3s7Qd021825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300353 LAZ000-TXZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350... VALID 300353Z - 300430Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX GULF COAST AND SWRN/SRN LA. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A FAST MOVING MCS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HOUSTON AREA AND ADDITIONAL CELLS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE SABINE PASS AREA. WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF SUBSIDING...A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WATCH WILL REPLACE PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 350. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29769291 29719408 30849412 30949363 31029243 30819097 29999089 29449123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 03:59:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 22:59:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300409.j4U497QF027654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300408 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300408 TXZ000-300515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 300408Z - 300515Z NUMEROUS CELLS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX LATE THIS EVENING. MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO FAR WRN STARR COUNTY AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WHILE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION AT 05Z. THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 26259725 25979814 26229900 27509897 27949730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 06:24:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 01:24:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300634.j4U6Yc70013562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300633 LAZ000-TXZ000-300800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353... VALID 300633Z - 300800Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SECONDARY TSTM LINE...EXTENDING FROM CALCASIEU PARISH SWD INTO GULF AS OF 0615Z. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...MAIN THREAT IS WITH TSTMS FARTHER ENE. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES...PARTICULARLY WITH PORTIONS OF LEADING BOW ECHO STILL ACCESSING NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW AS IT MOVES INTO ST LANDRY/LAFAYETTE/ST MARTIN PARISHES. THEREAFTER...MUCH OF THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ENTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED INFLOW PARCELS WITH WEAKENING BUOYANCY...INDICATING LIKELIHOOD OF DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY APCHS SWRN CORNER MS. VWP/PROFILER AND RUC WIND DATA INDICATE WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT AS WELL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN TERREBONNE PARISH NWWD ACROSS ST LANDRY...WHERE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY LEADING TSTM COMPLEX. AIR MASS S AND SW OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...WITH MODIFIED 00Z LCH RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPES GENERALLY WITHIN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS REGION -- LARGELY S OF BTR AND E OF WW -- WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29129476 30439473 30969168 30689142 30319115 29989076 29739043 29569022 29209022 29039048 29019080 29129113 29439153 29649167 29229420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 06:46:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 01:46:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300656.j4U6uHBs021277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300655 TXZ000-300830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 300655Z - 300830Z PRIMARY MULTICELL CLUSTER IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS WILLACY/EXTREME SRN KENEDY/ERN HIDALGO COUNTIES AS OF 645Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ITS OWN OUTFLOW HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MOST REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BASE VELOCITY DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS AOA 50 KT. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE PADRE ISLAND -- MAINLY OVER AND S OF MANSFIELD CUT -- WHILE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH CAMERON AND SERN HIDALGO COUNTIES. VERY NARROW AREA OF 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE -- ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC -- MAY AID DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CAMERON COUNTY BEFORE BOUNDARY MOVES PAST BRO. CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER SERN STARR/WRN HIDALGO COUNTY -- AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W IN MEX -- MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS IT MOVES OVER OUTFLOW POOL...GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE POSSIBLE ABOVE RESULTANT STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...WIND THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. ONCE OUTFLOW MOVES S OF RIO GRANDE...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN. GIVEN EXPECTED DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AFTER ABOUT 8Z...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25919877 27249855 27249692 25919714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 08:52:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 03:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300902.j4U92FLl006018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300859 NCZ000-SCZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300859Z - 301100Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VRY NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BAMBERG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES SC...BEFORE 11Z. WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF ISOLATED POTENTIAL COVERAGE AND SMALL AREA INVOLVED. TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN CAE AND BARNWELL COUNTY AS OF 845Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD PRIMARILY N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED ENE-WSW ACROSS REGION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NC TO ABOUT 20 SSW MYR...20 N CHS...VDI...40 NNW TLH. BAROCLINIC GRADIENT IS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR ACTIVITY MOVING ATOP COOL/RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS N. ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG/S OF FRONT AND INTERACT WITH IT MAY HAVE BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE MOVING ATOP STABLE LAYER...GIVEN ENHANCED SHEAR APPARENT ALONG FRONT AND NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO ITS S. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN 70S F -- ACROSS SC COASTAL PLAIN S OF FRONT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...HOWEVER HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE ENLARGED ENOUGH ALONG BOUNDARY FOR AROUND 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33258137 33558054 33687972 33897857 33637840 33167907 33138012 32908099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 08:59:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 03:59:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300909.j4U99RkQ009701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300908 TXZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 300908Z - 301015Z ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING FINAL SCHEDULED HOUR OF WW HAS BEEN REDUCED TO THAT WITH ONE LARGE/COMPLEX TSTM COVERING MOST OF SRN HIDALGO COUNTY. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND 61 KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT MFE AT 838Z. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD 20-30 KT -- FOLLOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED ALONG OR JUST A FEW MILES S OF RIO GRANDE. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS 70 F AND MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. ENOUGH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SERN HIDALGO/SRN CAMERON COUNTIES THAT WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTMS THROUGH EXPIRATION...AND MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO 11Z IF NEEDED FOR CAMERON COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25919877 27249855 27249692 25919714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 09:06:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 04:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300916.j4U9G5LB012529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300859 NCZ000-SCZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300859Z - 301100Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VRY NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BAMBERG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES SC...BEFORE 11Z. WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF ISOLATED POTENTIAL COVERAGE AND SMALL AREA INVOLVED. TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN CAE AND BARNWELL COUNTY AS OF 845Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD PRIMARILY N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED ENE-WSW ACROSS REGION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NC TO ABOUT 20 SSW MYR...20 N CHS...VDI...40 NNW TLH. BAROCLINIC GRADIENT IS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR ACTIVITY MOVING ATOP COOL/RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS N. ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG/S OF FRONT AND INTERACT WITH IT MAY HAVE BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE MOVING ATOP STABLE LAYER...GIVEN ENHANCED SHEAR APPARENT ALONG FRONT AND NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO ITS S. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN 70S F -- ACROSS SC COASTAL PLAIN S OF FRONT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...HOWEVER HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE ENLARGED ENOUGH ALONG BOUNDARY FOR AROUND 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33258137 33558054 33687972 33897857 33637840 33167907 33138012 32908099  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 09:17:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 04:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300927.j4U9RhM9016789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300908 TXZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 300908Z - 301015Z ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING FINAL SCHEDULED HOUR OF WW HAS BEEN REDUCED TO THAT WITH ONE LARGE/COMPLEX TSTM COVERING MOST OF SRN HIDALGO COUNTY. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND 61 KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT MFE AT 838Z. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD 20-30 KT -- FOLLOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED ALONG OR JUST A FEW MILES S OF RIO GRANDE. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS 70 F AND MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. ENOUGH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SERN HIDALGO/SRN CAMERON COUNTIES THAT WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTMS THROUGH EXPIRATION...AND MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO 11Z IF NEEDED FOR CAMERON COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25919877 27249855 27249692 25919714  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 09:26:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 04:26:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300936.j4U9aHYc019996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300935 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0435 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...EXTREME SERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355... VALID 300935Z - 301100Z POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MOVING FROM ASSUMPTION INTO ST JAMES PARISH -- AS OF 915Z -- HAVE MIDLEVEL ROTATION AND MAY DEVELOP SMALL BOW. AIR MASS E OF THIS ACTIVITY...ACROSS MSY AREA TO WRN PORTION OF MS COAST -- IS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...HAVING BEEN ONLY INDIRECTLY AFFECTED BY LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER GULF TO ITS S. SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F ARE EVIDENT...BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APCHG 8 DEG C/KM...YIELDING MUCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG AND SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...MS COASTAL AREAS E OF WW 355 MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW IF ACTIVITY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN EXTENSIVE AND COMPLEX AREA OF TSTMS OVER COASTAL SERN LA...WHERE SBCAPES MAY EXCEED 2000 J/KG AWAY FROM OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE...WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVER SERN LA...STABILIZING AIR MASS TO ITS W. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29588939 29459155 30899155 31028939 30928898 30818862 30708838 30538831 30288838 30218861 30168885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 11:07:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 06:07:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301117.j4UBHqKZ030778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301117 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...EXTREME SERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355... VALID 301117Z - 301215Z REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z. POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS EVIDENT AS OF 11Z OVER ST TAMMANY PARISH...SWD OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EWD ALONG I-12/I-10 CORRIDOR PAST SIL AND INTO PORTIONS HANCOCK/PEARL RIVER COUNTIES MS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IS INDICATED ALONG COAST. ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS...ROOTED 2-3 KFT AGL. MARGINAL EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 30-35 KT ARE DERIVED FROM SIL VWP AND RUC KINEMATIC PROFILES. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY EXTEND EWD FROM WW ACROSS COASTAL MS COUNTIES AFTER WW EXPIRES...HOWEVER...PRIND POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW. AREAS E OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DIABATIC HEATING -- FILTERED THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY FROM GULF TSTMS -- GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. MORE DISCUSSION ON THAT REGIME IS FORTHCOMING IN 13Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29588939 29459155 30899155 31028939 30928898 30818862 30708838 30538831 30288838 30218861 30168885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 12:05:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 07:05:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301215.j4UCFdhQ025128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301214 UTZ000-301345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301214Z - 301345Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS I-15 CORRIDOR FROM SLC SWD TOWARD EXTREME ERN JUAB COUNTY. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS SMALL BAND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER ERN TOOELE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TOWARD SLC AREA 20-25 KT...WITH SOME ACCELERATION POSSIBLE. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD CORE REGION OF UPPER LOW...WHERE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE CHANEL IMAGERY INDICATES LOW MOVING FROM ERN NV INTO WRN UT ATTM...AND ASSOCIATED DPVA FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD MORE OF CENTRAL/NRN UT AS MORNING PROGRESSES. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS W OF WASATCH FRONT...INDICATING MAIN THREAT THERE WILL BE LARGE HAIL. A FEW POTENTIALLY DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS -- ABOVE ROUGHLY 6000 FT -- WHEN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO TERRAIN THAT EXTENDS UPWARD INTO MOST UNSTABLE LAYER. PENDING OBSERVED SLC RAOB...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPE 250-400 J/KG...ROOTED IN 600-650 MB PRESSURE LAYER. 30-40 KT SHEAR IS EVIDENT THROUGH CLOUD BEARING LAYER...AND HAIL THREAT IS ENHANCED WITH MIDLEVEL ROTATION IN ANY TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC... 39271207 39661224 40281237 40751217 40971197 41061173 41021153 40841147 40361139 39841151 39431170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 15:29:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 10:29:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301539.j4UFdq9u013584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301539 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-301745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT/WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301539Z - 301745Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH CAPE LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH/ WESTERN COLORADO. AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...CURRENTLY EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA...APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO AND NORTHEAST OF THE PRICE UT/GRAND JUNCTION CO AREAS BY THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. THIS AREA WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF 30 TO 40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC... 40531032 41090904 40740758 39720704 37610788 37160999 37951041 39681080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 15:54:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 10:54:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301604.j4UG40q2025091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301603 FLZ000-301800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301603Z - 301800Z STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS IS DESTABILIZING WITH HEATING ACROSS INTERIOR AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE STORMS AS EARLY AS 18-21Z. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK...AND PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... 25188083 25968072 26408103 26778122 27298086 27768056 27918049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 16:23:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 11:23:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301633.j4UGXftQ004913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301632 NMZ000-COZ000-301830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL CO/N CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301632Z - 301830Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY AS EARLY AS 18-19Z TIME FRAME. THICK LOW-CLOUD COVER NORTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF FRONT...SOUTH/WEST OF PUEBLO AND LA JUNTA CO...INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION. CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS/IMMEDIATELY TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON. CAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH EXIT REGION OF 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 37740713 38280680 38640593 38180558 37680476 37390400 36840363 36150386 35730499 35870619 36300672 36930680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 18:24:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 13:24:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301834.j4UIYbZJ026239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301833 COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-302030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356... VALID 301833Z - 302030Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL UTAH...WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS TAKING ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EASTERN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY END ACROSS UTAH BY 20-21Z...WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AND RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHIFTING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...RIW...GJT...SLC... 40531032 41090904 40740758 39210645 37470708 36910890 37540958 39110970 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 18:39:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 13:39:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301849.j4UInoCS001825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301848 LAZ000-TXZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 301848Z - 302045Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...AND BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIR MASS ACROSS SERN TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY NOW DECAYING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC SUGGEST 100MB MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY IN PLACE AT 18Z. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF GALVESTON BAY SWWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER JUST SE OF CLL COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 20-25KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.8-2 IN/ AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29489467 29649402 29749324 29579250 29709162 30159148 30649162 30999176 31319218 31519291 31739500 31499559 30899618 30319621 29369572 28919538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 19:17:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 14:17:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301927.j4UJR6j6018997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301925 FLZ000-GAZ000-302130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH FL AND S-CENTRAL/SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301925Z - 302130Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN FL AND S-CENTRAL INTO SERN GA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DECAYING ACROSS THIS REGION CURRENTLY...WITH BAND OF MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /35-40KT AT 500MB/ ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ELONGATED WSW-ENE BANDS OF TOWERING CU EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS STORMS INTERACT WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS TRACK EWD AT 20-25KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31218366 31438305 31658216 31628161 31428140 30598144 30038132 29788133 29498150 29388197 29388246 29698297 29998346 30158359 30478365 30928382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 19:56:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 14:56:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302006.j4UK6bpa002679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302005 NMZ000-302200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/SE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302005Z - 302200Z WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS APPEARS PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGER MID/ UPPER FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO NORTH OF REGION...ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT STRONGER FLOW IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW MEXICO BY 31/00Z. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR...SUPPORTING RISK OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34460523 35070425 34700386 33550382 32770422 32370512 32340584 33150567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 22:36:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 17:36:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302246.j4UMkGTN029785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302245 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357... VALID 302245Z - 310045Z VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR FAVORABLE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN SERN CO SSEWD ACROSS COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NERN NM...AND FURTHER EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. STRONG INSTABILITY WAS STREAMING NWWD ACROSS A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS SERN CO. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 45KT WAS TRAVERSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS ROTATING TSTMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED BY STORM UPDRAFTS CROSSING THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN TORNADOES. EVEN THOUGH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY ONCE CELLS MOVE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35250295 35250542 38500465 38430205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 22:48:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 17:48:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302257.j4UMvvFm001219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302257 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-310000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO AND WRN PARTS OF NEB/KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302257Z - 310000Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS MOST OF NERN CO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WRN NEB AND WRN KS WITHIN THE HOUR. VERY STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER CNTRL CO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. RESULTANT TSTMS WILL BE FUELED BY LOW STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED SPREADING NWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY ALL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS HAILSTORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38540191 38590468 41000454 41040148 38410173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 23:30:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 18:30:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302340.j4UNei42015090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302245 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357... VALID 302245Z - 310045Z VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR FAVORABLE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN SERN CO SSEWD ACROSS COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NERN NM...AND FURTHER EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. STRONG INSTABILITY WAS STREAMING NWWD ACROSS A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS SERN CO. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 45KT WAS TRAVERSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS ROTATING TSTMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED BY STORM UPDRAFTS CROSSING THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN TORNADOES. EVEN THOUGH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY ONCE CELLS MOVE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35250295 35250542 38500465 38430205  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 23:37:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 18:37:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302347.j4UNlKJU017384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302257 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-310000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO AND WRN PARTS OF NEB/KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302257Z - 310000Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS MOST OF NERN CO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WRN NEB AND WRN KS WITHIN THE HOUR. VERY STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER CNTRL CO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. RESULTANT TSTMS WILL BE FUELED BY LOW STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED SPREADING NWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY ALL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS HAILSTORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38540191 38590468 41000454 41040148 38410173  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 01:48:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 20:48:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310158.j4V1wDWG029539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310157 COZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358... VALID 310157Z - 310300Z A COUPLE OF BANDS OF STRONG TSTMS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 358 THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER WRN/CNTRL CO ATTM. EVENING RAOB FROM DNR SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GIVEN INTENSITY OF DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL WILL LIKELY BE NEARER THE NRN EXTENT OF THE NARROW SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS...ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE WATCH. WRN PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT STATUS MESSAGE AS COLD FRONT REFORMS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38460282 38340451 40860508 40840320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 02:40:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 21:40:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310250.j4V2oS8P017484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310249 NMZ000-310415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0949 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... VALID 310249Z - 310415Z A NUMBER OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 359. IN ADDITION TO LONE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SERN CHAVES COUNTY...A CELL MERGER WILL SOON OCCUR ON THE BORDER OF NRN CURRY AND SERN QUAY COUNTY WHERE LEFT-MOVING CELL WILL ENCOUNTER A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING ESEWD. IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND ACTIVITY REACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ... 35310481 35290307 32910324 32910497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 04:37:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 23:37:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310447.j4V4lF3E026249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310445 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-310545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...TX AND OK PNHDLS...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...359...360... VALID 310445Z - 310545Z VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SERN CO. THIS FORCING WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE ELEVATED BOWING SEGMENT OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST TOWARD THE WRN KS BORDER AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM AND GIVEN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS KS...ONLY A SMALL HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY EXIST AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH....ACROSS VALID AREAS OF WATCH 360...STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE CONGEALED INTO A SMALL MCS FROM AMA AREA SWWD TO CVS AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THIS CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FROM UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM...SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WATCH 360 AND ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT PRESENT. AN ISOLATED LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL PERSISTS OVER NERN LEA COUNTY NM AND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS STORM...WATCH 359 WILL EXPIRE AT 06Z. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT OF ISOLATED STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS SERN NM AS UPPER FORCING MOVES EAST AND ACTS ON RESIDUAL WARM/MOIST AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF LINCOLN...DE BACA...AND CHAVES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AFTER WATCH 359 EXPIRES AT 06Z. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33000195 32930377 32960460 34640413 35230332 38290282 38320391 38840366 39700295 38330258 38330111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 06:23:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 01:23:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310633.j4V6XB74028428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310632 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-310800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... VALID 310632Z - 310800Z BOW ECHO OVER PORTIONS RANDALL/SWISHER COUNTIES TX AS OF 615Z MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES ESEWD TOWARD CDS AREA...ALONG ISODROSOTHERMAL GRADIENT ANALYZED IN 00Z 850 MB CHART. ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO MAY CONTINUE WITHIN PRESENT WW AREA AFTER SCHEDULED 8Z EXPIRATION. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD/INTENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CROSS NM BORDER INTO SWRN PORTIONS WW -- INCLUDING SUPERCELL THAT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS COCHRAN COUNTY. LATTER STORM PRODUCED REPORT OF 2 INCH HAIL IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM DURING PAST HALF HOUR. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING CINH WITH SEWD EXTENT...AS EVIDENT IN BOTH MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS...AND IN DISSIPATION TREND OF FORMER LEA/GAINES COUNTY STORM FARTHER S. ELSEWHERE...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS LAA AREA AND REMAINDER PROWERS/BACA COUNTIES...WHERE SMALL POCKET OF ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG APPEARS TO REMAIN BEHIND EARLIER ACTIVITY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RATHER SEWD TOWARD SW KS. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH ACROSS SOME AREAS OF WW THAT HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZE4D BY TX PANHANDLE MCS...THAT WW MAY BE CLEARED OVER PORTIONS NWRN TX AND WRN OK PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP COLD POOL OVER ERN NM -- INVOF I-40 -- AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO TX PANHANDLE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 33000195 33000364 38300283 38320099 35090161 34930084 34750016 34599997 34369993 34030011 33000194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 08:17:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 03:17:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310827.j4V8R8Gv007517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310826 FLZ000-311100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL W COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 310826Z - 311100Z NUMEROUS TSTMS OFFSHORE FL W COAST ARE FCST TO MOVE INLAND GENERALLY FROM FMY-CTY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE THREAT INTENSE/ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN GULF N ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OPTIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN GULF. GREATEST CAPE ACTUALLY IS INDICATED BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY -- OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LOOP CURRENT WHERE AIR-SEA EQUILIBRIUM MAXIMIZES BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY UNTIL IT MOVES ONSHORE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F REMAIN COMMON. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPES APCHG 2000 J/KG ALONG COASTLINE...DROPPING MARKEDLY TO UNDER 1000 J/KG INLAND WHERE SFC DIABATIC COOLING HAS STABILIZED AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK...TBW VWP SHOWS OFFSHORE/LAND-BREEZE FLOW HELPING TO ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT BACKED FLOW AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR GROUND LEVEL MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND...STORMS INTERACTING WITH LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY. LEWPS/BOW FORMATIONS AND TRANSIENT/RELATIVELY WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MIGHT OCCUR ALONG COASTLINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVERALL...GREATEST HAZARD MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WOULD EXTEND FARTHER INLAND THAN ANY MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST THROUGH LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE...WITH 1.75-2 INCH PW EVIDENT. CELL MERGERS AND ECHO TRAINING WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE... 29358318 29388303 29248285 29058264 28838247 28648246 28318259 28108256 27968241 27678238 27408242 27178228 26898196 26618187 26358183 26318201 26478227 26938269 27798301 28338313 29148328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 10:24:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 05:24:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311034.j4VAYcKh020854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311033 TXZ000-311200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... VALID 311033Z - 311200Z SEVERE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IN WW...HOWEVER GENERAL/GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. PRIND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z. SERIES OF THREE PRIMARY STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WW AREA. INITIAL STORM -- MOVING TOWARD NRN BORDEN/WRN SCURRY COUNTY...REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH INCREASING CINH WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER LBB COUNTY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN LYNN/CROSBY/SWRN GARZA COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z...WITH MAIN THREAT LARGE HAIL. 1.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED DURING PAST HOUR WITH MIDDLE STORM...AS IT WAS TRANSITIONING FROM SUPERCELL TO SMALL BOW ECHO OVER HOCKLEY COUNTY. ALTHOUGH A FEW ASSOCIATED GUSTS MAY APCH SEVERE LIMITS...PRIND WIND POTENTIAL IS SUPPRESSED BY NEAR-SFC STABILITY...PER SUBSEVERE WINDS IN AVAILABLE DATA FROM 3 MESONET STATIONS OVER WHICH STORM HAS PASSED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER COMBINATION OF RADIATIONALLY STABILIZING NEAR-SFC LAYER AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ACTIVITY FARTHER NW OVER LAMB COUNTY MAY FOLLOW SIMILAR PATH BUT SHOULD BE EVEN MORE ELEVATED...GIVEN ITS TRACK OVER FRESHLY DEEPENED OUTFLOW POOL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32660061 32660302 34730295 34740050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 17:53:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 12:53:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311803.j4VI3ThR003501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311802 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL KS...AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311802Z - 312000Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. AREAS FROM NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERALL THREAT MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE. AT 1745Z...LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 15W LNK TO 15E SLN TO 40E P28 CONTINUES VERY SLOW EWD ADVANCE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK IN ADDITION TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY LIKELY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY NWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SERN NEB. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALIGN ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ALONG THIS AXIS PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE NUMBER OF INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER...A FEW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 37329827 38089803 40169736 41569714 41339659 40959634 40239599 39669583 38879586 38059604 37369630 37099649 36879670 36599679 36369694 36009760 35689802 35499914 35539980 35880018 36140006 36329962 36549905 36879852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 17:56:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 12:56:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311806.j4VI6oRT006280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311805 TXZ000-NMZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311805Z - 312000Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION... RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT. THIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35130447 36000399 35890291 35270172 34740101 33560068 31700129 31360280 33500419 34370442 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 18:00:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 13:00:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311810.j4VIAXNf008922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311802 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL KS...AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311802Z - 312000Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. AREAS FROM NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERALL THREAT MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE. AT 1745Z...LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 15W LNK TO 15E SLN TO 40E P28 CONTINUES VERY SLOW EWD ADVANCE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK IN ADDITION TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY LIKELY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY NWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SERN NEB. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALIGN ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ALONG THIS AXIS PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE NUMBER OF INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER...A FEW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 37329827 38089803 40169736 41569714 41339659 40959634 40239599 39669583 38879586 38059604 37369630 37099649 36879670 36599679 36369694 36009760 35689802 35499914 35539980 35880018 36140006 36329962 36549905 36879852  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 18:02:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 13:02:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311812.j4VICFMQ010180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311805 TXZ000-NMZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311805Z - 312000Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION... RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT. THIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35130447 36000399 35890291 35270172 34740101 33560068 31700129 31360280 33500419 34370442  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 20:41:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 15:41:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312051.j4VKphxh024159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312050 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-312245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362... VALID 312050Z - 312245Z WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. MOST SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED SE OF THE AMA AREA ENHANCED BY SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT/INSTABILITY ACROSS AREA. AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG. THUS...COMBINATION OF TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND STRONG INSTABILITY S OF BOUNDARY INDICATES PRESENCE OF ENHANCED LIFT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES ARE MAIN THREAT. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED DRYLINE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH. LATEST 18Z NAM AND RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SIGNAL OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM E CENTRAL NM INTO W TX. RUC FCST MIDLAND SNDG SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 45-55 KT INDICATING AGAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34230477 34770476 35580475 36300472 36840476 36660418 36030238 35500123 35130001 34639998 34189998 33669999 33210002 32779998 32509999 32800075 33160175 33560288 33930383 34160459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 22:25:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 17:25:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312235.j4VMZ1dS018631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312233 TXZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312233Z - 010000Z PORTIONS OF WEST TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY AREAS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KENT AND FISHER COUNTIES SEWD TO COLEMAN...MCCULLOCH...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. WITH INHIBITION NEARLY ELIMINATED AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PERSISTING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. KINEMATIC PROPERTIES STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATING 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS APPARENTLY LIMITING STRENGTH OF 0-1KM SRH WITH ANTECEDENT EFFECTIVE VALUES AOB 100 M2/S2. HOWEVER...VALUES NEAR THE STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE CLOSER TO 150 M2/S2. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND/OR PERHAPS WITH MCS DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32910249 31620187 30670241 30549819 32849986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 22:49:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 17:49:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312259.j4VMxGbT029807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312258 FLZ000-GAZ000-010100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312258Z - 010100Z ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED. TSTM HAVE INCREASED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS LEVY...ALACHUA...AND DUVAL COUNTIES. WHILE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THIS CONDITION MAY BE OFFSET BY STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACH OF BROAD GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST/LOW LFC ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IS TOPPED BY 35 KT WSWLY FLOW. THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. ONE OF TWO OF THESE STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COULD OF HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31128155 30218353 29778360 29138285 29698206 29958126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 22:56:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 17:56:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312306.j4VN6ewW000867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312233 TXZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312233Z - 010000Z PORTIONS OF WEST TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY AREAS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KENT AND FISHER COUNTIES SEWD TO COLEMAN...MCCULLOCH...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. WITH INHIBITION NEARLY ELIMINATED AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PERSISTING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. KINEMATIC PROPERTIES STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATING 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS APPARENTLY LIMITING STRENGTH OF 0-1KM SRH WITH ANTECEDENT EFFECTIVE VALUES AOB 100 M2/S2. HOWEVER...VALUES NEAR THE STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE CLOSER TO 150 M2/S2. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND/OR PERHAPS WITH MCS DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32910249 31620187 30670241 30549819 32849986  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 23:08:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 18:08:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312318.j4VNImFx005567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312258 FLZ000-GAZ000-010100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312258Z - 010100Z ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED. TSTM HAVE INCREASED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS LEVY...ALACHUA...AND DUVAL COUNTIES. WHILE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THIS CONDITION MAY BE OFFSET BY STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACH OF BROAD GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST/LOW LFC ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IS TOPPED BY 35 KT WSWLY FLOW. THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. ONE OF TWO OF THESE STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COULD OF HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31128155 30218353 29778360 29138285 29698206 29958126  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 23:36:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 18:36:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312346.j4VNkEqC016180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312344 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-010145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362... VALID 312344Z - 010145Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN THE WATCH AS MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER CNTRL TX PNHDL HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS. PRONOUNCED MOISTURE AXIS/INSTABILITY AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AS EVIDENCED ON BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR CONTINUES TO FEED STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH. MORE ISOLATED CELLS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH..HOWEVER EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AS OVERALL STORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. PER MD 1091..NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON...SOUTH OF CURRENT WW. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34270474 36880477 36340334 35840306 35630147 35119998 32549997 33160175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 23:37:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 18:37:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312347.j4VNlBJR016364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312346 TXZ000-OKZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363... VALID 312346Z - 010115Z WEAKLY ORGANIZED TSTMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SWRN OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NWRN TX THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. LATEST RADAR AND SFC ANALYSIS DATA WAS SHOWING SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL OK APPEARS TO HAVE OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS ALONG AN OUTFLOW FROM ERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY SWWD INTO NERN GRADY COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO INTERSECT THE GRADY COUNTY STORM CLUSTER...AND EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CLEVELAND COUNTY. 25-30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER TLX VWP AND PRC PROFILER WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN ORGANIZATION WITH CELL/BOUNDARY MERGERS POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION GIVEN MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY BE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS FROM WILBARGER COUNTY IN NW TX EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER TO TILLMAN COUNTY OK. MOST INTENSE PART OF THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN STOUT UPDRAFTS AS IT SPREADS SEWD THIS EVENING. MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HAIL AND WIND EVENTS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 35219998 35479686 33749684 33529996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 1 12:05:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 07:05:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505011215.j41CFrfn018562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011214 FLZ000-011345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011214Z - 011345Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE AND LARGE-SCALE BOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE AROUND FT MEYERS EXTENDING SSWWD TO JEST WEST OF NAPLES FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL WHICH SUGGESTS THE LINE IS ELEVATED. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A FORWARD SPEED OF AROUND 25 KT SUGGEST ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. THE BEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE NRN END OF THE LINE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOW APEX AS THE LINE MOVES INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBIE THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 05/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25718122 26008169 26438164 27008099 27158025 26618005 25988068 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 2 07:53:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 May 2005 02:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505020803.j4283eRa026100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020802 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-021400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...NWRN TX PNHDL...WRN OK PNHDL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020802Z - 021400Z VERY UNUSUAL EARLY MAY SNOWSTORM WAS EVOLVING OVER NERN NM AND PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EARLY TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH DAYBREAK COULD LOCALLY APPROACH 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM AND MESOSCALE MODEL DATA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE RATES IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM LVS ENEWD TO EXTREME NWRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...HEAVY WET SNOW COULD SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AFTER DAYBREAK. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA WAS CONFIRMING MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT OF VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS. A WEST-TO-EAST BAND OF INTENSE SLOPED ASCENT WAS OCCURRING IN A SATURATED LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...DIABATIC PROCESSES HAVE PRODUCED A DEEP LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES... ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WET SNOW DEVELOPING EAST WITH TIME. THE COMBINATION OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT...AND WEAK CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION...WAS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL QPF. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.30-0.50 INCHES PER 3 HOURS WERE BEING FCST FROM THE LATEST RUC AND NAM. WHILE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. LATEST RUC AND NAM...AS WELL AS 4KM WRF-NMM...APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT HEAVY WET SNOW COULD DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE TX PNHDL AFTER 12Z. ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 35400159 35390229 35300309 35660508 36500510 36720479 36840438 36880298 36710219 36250146 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 10:21:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 05:21:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505041031.j44AVVom021174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041030 FLZ000-041300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041030Z - 041300Z ISOLATED TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NCNTRL FL EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. RADAR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS NEAR A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NCNTRL FL EARLY THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT IN VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. A CONTINUATION OF THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY PROMPT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WAS TOPPED BY 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. WHILE STRONGER ASCENT IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE/CLOUD PROCESSES ARE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW INTENSE CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE FOREMOST HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED IF INTENSITY/COVERAGE TRENDS DICTATE. ..CARBIN.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27968048 27188118 27458261 28578267 29328264 29998229 30308139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 15:36:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 10:36:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505041546.j44FkQ5i017059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041546 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041545 FLZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219... VALID 041545Z - 041745Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA WWD TO S OF MELBOURNE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S PERSIST NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE REDUCED HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE ANVIL DEBRIS ORIGINATING FROM LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN GULF AS WELL AS THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY CONVECTION. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN GULF TO DECREASE AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS ARE RESULTING IN STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER PARTS OF S CNTRL AND S FL GENERALLY S OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PERSISTENT BUT MODEST SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD...AND STORMS MAY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27418008 26838119 26568201 27318247 28078282 28868321 29258303 29538245 29798185 29918112 28868061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 16:02:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 11:02:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505041612.j44GCalR007212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041611 FLZ000-041815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041611Z - 041815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN FL BY MID AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS THINNING AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER SRN FL WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. 12Z RAOB DATA FROM MIAMI AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE OVER S FL IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. MULTICELLS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 26778010 26008019 25308060 25348094 25898129 26158176 26588156 26878101 26968058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 20:14:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 15:14:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505042024.j44KOuuX012021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042024 FLZ000-042230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... VALID 042024Z - 042230Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER S FL GENERALLY NEAR AND S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MIAMI THEN CURVES NWWD TO ABOUT 45 MILES SE OF FORT MYERS. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. MODEST SSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN LIFT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NE OF THIS FEATURE. SWWD BACKBUILDING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE COLD POOL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED...RESULTING IN SWWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26478185 26768131 27678117 28298151 28638135 28738081 27968050 26848006 26048010 25388043 25168098 25598121 25998174 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 22:02:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 17:02:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505042212.j44MCWra012072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042211 TXZ000-042345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042211Z - 042345Z ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM OVER THE DAVIS MTNS WILL MOVE SSEWD TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND N.P AREA OF WRN/SWRN BREWSTER CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WRN DAVIS MTNS THROUGH 00Z. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PROFILER DATA FROM WSM INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS OF WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND CONVERGENT ...AIDED BY A WEAK LEE SFC LOW EAST OF THE DAVIS MTNS. AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE JEFF DAVIS/PRESIDIO/BREWSTER COUNTY INTERSECTION /NEAR FST/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO FAR WRN BREWSTER CO. MODERATE /40-45 KTS/ DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 73/46 AT MRF WILL SUPPORT A THREAT LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELL STRUCTURE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND 01Z...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASING SBCINH. ..CROSBIE.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF... 30380309 30790366 30640409 30240401 29670392 29300376 29200358 29280321 29760306 30080301 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 4 22:45:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 May 2005 17:45:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505042255.j44MtG0O015935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042254 FLZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... VALID 042254Z - 050000Z SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THROUGH SRN FL...PASSING THROUGH SRN PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF INLAND MONROE COUNTY AT 2245Z. SSWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST PART OF THE TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVELY FORCING UNSTABLE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AND RESULTING IN TSTM INITIATION. STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...REACH MATURITY...THEN DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE METRO PALM BEACH/MIAMI AREAS. LIFE CYCLES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED...BUT BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WS 220 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AFTER SUNSET...OR AFTER THE COOL OUTFLOW MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN FL. ..RACY.. 05/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 24938165 26248217 26878101 27058024 27578017 27117972 26307946 25437962 25218057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 16:02:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 11:02:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505051612.j45GCdU8017208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051611 FLZ000-051815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051611Z - 051815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE SERN FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW. TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. WHILE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WHERE SOME SURFACE HEATING IS POSSIBLE...EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER THE GULF WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION. LIMITED INSOLATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...ONCE ESTABLISHED...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN WEAK CAP. SOME INTENSIFICATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD INTO HENDRY COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28528073 27138012 26448008 25548024 25358056 26448121 27588119 28338115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 16:53:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 11:53:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505051703.j45H3v9K029968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051702 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ND...NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051702Z - 051930Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SERN ND/NERN SD AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 18-20Z. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL SD...SERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A BAND OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT RUC/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM/DESTABILIZE REMOVING THE REMAINING CINH. IN ADDITION...SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MN /NORTH OF THE MSP AREA/. A SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPTS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY AS DEEPER MIXING OFFSETS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS WITH A SFC PARCEL OF LOWER 70S/UPPER 40S INDICATES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG OF SBCAPE. 35 TO 40 KTS OF CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A SVR HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR OUTFLOW GENERATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SFC BASED CONVECTION INITIATES. THE OVERALL LIMITED NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SVR THREAT TO MORE MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47239273 47439415 46519696 45769877 45219895 44669820 44489783 44539671 44949471 45889284 46289259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 20:20:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 15:20:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505052030.j45KU6RY009357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052029 NVZ000-CAZ000-052200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH DESERTS OF SERN CA AND SWRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052029Z - 052200Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT OF ERN KERN...NRN/WRN SAN BERNARDINO AND SRN INYO COUNTIES OF SERN CA THROUGH 23Z. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE HIGH DESERT OF SWRN NEVADA AFTER 23Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS SERN CA. ONE BAND WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OWENS VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER BAND SUPPORTED BY A COLD POOL MOVING THROUGH THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA/TEHACHAPI MTNS. A WELL DEFINED GUST FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH BFL IN THE LAST HOUR SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE/S LEADING EDGE ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT CROSSES INTO THE HIGH DESERT. THE THERMODYNAMICS DOWNWIND OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH DESERT WAS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT UP TO AROUND 600 MB. RECENT FCST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR 20Z OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AROUND 750 J/KG OF MUCAPE ABOVE THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT GRADIENT WIND FIELDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE LINES...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...HNX...LOX... 37751689 36541806 35771796 34911815 34821779 34911680 35381630 35931596 36811557 37681606 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 21:03:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 16:03:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505052113.j45LDmxn013225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052113 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052112 NMZ000-TXZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM...FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052112Z - 052245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP/MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM/FAR NRN CHIHUAHUA MX INTO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND MOVE INTO THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH 01Z. OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ALONG AXES UP BOTH THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVER VALLEYS. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE PER RECENT TRENDS OF WSM PROFILER DATA. PER 20Z RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS COMBINED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ABOVE A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO 700 MB WILL BE SUPPORT OF ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THREAT FOR SVR SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 02Z...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31850645 32140701 32900754 34040722 34650623 34320465 33410416 32250421 31180513 31260577 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 5 22:00:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 17:00:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505052210.j45MA3oR023447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052209 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID...FAR NERN NV...NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052209Z - 052345Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 02Z. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX ROTATING NWD ACROSS ERN NV. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS VORT MAX HAS ORGANIZED INTO LINES ACROSS NRN UT/FAR NERN NV. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINES WAS DEEPLY MIXED WITH 30-35 F TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LVL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN UT/FAR NERN NV. FARTHER NW...HIGHER DEWPTS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /AROUND 35 KTS/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ACROSS SRN ID. ..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 42791242 43341479 43111598 42761656 42001699 41581649 41131506 40931318 40781194 41231135 42401130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 17:57:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 12:57:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061807.j46I7NZ8031371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061806 UTZ000-WYZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061806Z - 062030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF UT THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. UPPER VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ASCENT SPREADING NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF UT. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF UT...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 30S. DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH UT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO PROMOTE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37251114 38821234 39821374 41181338 41621160 40290955 38990918 37390942 37071003 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 18:05:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 13:05:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061815.j46IFjKs006439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061814 COR AZZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UT THROUGH N CNTRL AND NERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061814Z - 062030Z CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NERN AZ THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF UT INTO N CNTRL AND NERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. UPPER VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ASCENT SPREADING NEWD THROUGH NRN AZ AND MUCH OF UT. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 30S. DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN AZ AND UT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO PROMOTE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37411128 38821234 39821374 41181338 41621160 40290955 38990918 36290949 36091070 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 18:47:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 13:47:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061857.j46Ivds4010948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061856 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...SERN CO...EXTREME WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061856Z - 062100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NERN NM AND SERN CO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM INTO SERN CO. RECENT SURFACE AND VWP TRENDS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING NEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ. BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER WWD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN NM INTO SERN CO...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD INTO WRN NM. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35620492 37020457 38750346 38500220 36750246 35220316 34970433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 19:12:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 14:12:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505061922.j46JMDmM031755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061921 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-062115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI/ERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061921Z - 062115Z TSTMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS UPPER MI/NERN WI PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW ACROSS CNTRL WI. SFC TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS ERN WI WHERE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU FILED IS BECOMING AGITATED. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR STORMS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEGREES AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX... 46718763 44918915 42599036 42378766 42658707 43428657 46098573 46448616 46748695 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 20:05:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 15:05:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062015.j46KFTqw013908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062014 TXZ000-NMZ000-062215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062014Z - 062215Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL THROUGH SERN NM INTO SW TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A WW. HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 50 CLOSE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN NM AND SWRN TX. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM INTO SWRN TX WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS JUST N OF MARFA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 30650375 32250469 35220474 35280316 32680294 30890245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 20:32:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 15:32:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062042.j46Kgboh003250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062041 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-062245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/NW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062041Z - 062245Z STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FROM BOTH RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE INDICATED SLIGHT CAP STILL IN PLACE...BUT MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WITH 20Z DATA SUGGEST INHIBITION IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ATTEMPTS AT SFC BASED CONVECTION ARE ONGOING OVER THE BLACK HILLS ATTM...WITH LATEST MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT...THEREFORE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ONCE STORMS BECOME SFC BASED. ..TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41520337 42440409 45520371 45910246 45400162 44650082 43260049 42120032 41710056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 22:33:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 17:33:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062243.j46MhKFt024763@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062242 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-070045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...222... VALID 062242Z - 070045Z CONTINUE WWS...NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF WW 222 MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THOUGH EVEN IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ONLY MODERATELY STRONG AT BEST...VEERING WITH HEIGHT ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY MOST VIGOROUS STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED. TOWARD THE 07/00-03Z TIME FRAME...CONSOLIDATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON NOSE OF 30 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ..KERR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 43910450 44620345 44510167 43830093 43410040 42759920 41549876 39919885 38470000 37110173 36810335 37680350 39030248 41010287 42390372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 6 23:15:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 18:15:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505062325.j46NPDSH016692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062324 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-070130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NW IA...NE NEB...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062324Z - 070130Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING AND INCREASING INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS BY 01-02Z. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING/ VEERING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS TO PROVIDE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 03-06Z TIME FRAME. IN THE SHORT TERM....ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. ..KERR.. 05/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44189846 44739774 44669667 44039479 43149402 42429409 42809611 43469783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 00:45:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 19:45:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505070055.j470t9oq032463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070054 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/SRN WI/ERN IA/NRN IL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 070054Z - 070300Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT IS NARROW...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM OSH/DBQ INTO NCNTRL IA. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE HAS SUPPORTED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THUS FAR...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH HAIL. HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DIMINISH. THE MAIN FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND AS THIS FORCING SHIFTS EWD INTO LOWER MI/IN/OH OVERNIGHT...A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE MAINTAINED. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS LOWER MI IS MUCH DRIER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 40S...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 45028305 43468439 42028687 41458776 41879034 42529087 43558975 44678637 45688503 45738299 45308291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 01:46:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 20:46:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505070156.j471ujiQ031703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070156 NEZ000-SDZ000-070330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...SD...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... VALID 070156Z - 070330Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONGEAL/CONSOLIDATE IN THE VICINITY OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IS ONGOING...AND ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY IS ALREADY BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR PRIMARY NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN PROCESS OF BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BETWEEN BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS CONTINUES TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW WITHIN MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THIS REGION WILL MINIMIZE SHEAR...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 05/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR... 42990250 43440075 42649886 41329843 40599940 40870051 41560175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 7 02:02:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 May 2005 21:02:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505070212.j472CLV8007275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070211 KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-070315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SE CO...WRN OK AND TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221... VALID 070211Z - 070315Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS SLOWER TO DIMINISH. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY REMAIN STRONG/SEVERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03Z...AS IT SPREADS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS NEAR SURFACE INVERSION DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL...AND THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO COOLER/POTENTIALLY LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. ..KERR.. 05/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 36020348 37000339 37910248 38300106 37959989 36360045 34250165 33030204 32330318 32500401 33090454 34750361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 02:28:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 May 2005 21:28:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080238.j482c5km016772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080237 MNZ000-NDZ000-080330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225... VALID 080237Z - 080330Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 225 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE...ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN ARC OF STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO EXHAUST REMAINING ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z...WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46740135 47640142 48270025 48369839 48049739 47199693 46499676 46279765 46479854 46709911 46430067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 03:58:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 May 2005 22:58:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080408.j4847xbZ021400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080407 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080407 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN...CNTRL/NE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228... VALID 080407Z - 080530Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 228 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 06Z. BRIEF STRONG GUSTS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...EAST OF WW 228. HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN REMAINING WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF OUTFLOW IS PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE...WITH STRONGER BAND OF MID/UPPER FORCING PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ACROSS NORFOLK INTO THE KEARNEY NEB AREA...DIMINISHING TRENDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. FORCING/LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IN CONFLUENCE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL WARMING...BUT ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST PEAK UPDRAFT INTENSITIES MAY BE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...AND CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE KEARNEY/GRAND ISLAND AREAS SHORTLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALL IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CELLS MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORFOLK INTO AREAS SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 46599646 46449487 45549392 44109439 42709592 42469682 41579765 41029886 41209942 42339805 43479699 44839693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 04:32:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 May 2005 23:32:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080442.j484gQWS001532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080441 TXZ000-080615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW..W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227... VALID 080441Z - 080615Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SAN ANGELO AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROGRESSED AWAY FROM DRY LINE...WHICH REMAINS BACKED UP TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. DRY LINE LIKELY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR NEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY DECREASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...AWAY FROM STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS...WILL PERSIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION INTO AREAS EAST OF SAN ANGELO/SOUTH OF ABILENE THROUGH 06Z...AS WELL AS WITH NEW ACTIVITY SPREADING BACK INTO AREAS WEST/SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 32280067 32930013 33089900 32749866 31829897 31009965 30450054 30390168 30530267 31020277 31160225 31410178 31610122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 06:13:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 01:13:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505080622.j486Ms2Y004175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080622 TXZ000-080715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227... VALID 080622Z - 080715Z ...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT COUNTIES IN SWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MODEST LOW LEVEL SELY INFLOW AND VEERED DEEP LAYER WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION AROUND 850MB. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF PARCEL LIFT...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29840189 30950082 31969841 29609943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 09:50:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 04:50:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081000.j48A00aC019922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080959 TXZ000-081100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229... VALID 080959Z - 081100Z ...AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW... WELL ORGANIZED MINI MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM MASON COUNTY TO KERR COUNTY IN CENTRAL TX. WITHIN THIS CLUSTER AN APPARENT MVC HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN KIMBLE COUNTY...MOVING INTO NWRN GILLESPIE COUNTY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF CURRENT WW WITHIN THE HOUR. ALTHOUGH REFLECTIVITY HAS TAKEN ON A BOW-TYPE STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MVC...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO ELEVATED NATURE. LARGE HAIL DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THOUGH AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST. ..DARROW.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29880050 32099836 31829775 29599908 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 12:25:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 07:25:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081235.j48CZdT1002554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081234 TXZ000-081330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... VALID 081234Z - 081330Z ...MCS WILL MOVE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS... A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...TRAILING BACK INTO REAL AND BANDERA COUNTIES WHERE UPSHEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE INTO BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM. IT APPEARS FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL ALLOW MCS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29809958 30869746 32409638 31929523 30149615 29549785 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 13:28:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 08:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081338.j48DcMqn006363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081337 TXZ000-081430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081337Z - 081430Z STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER E CNTRL TX WILL MOVE E OF WW 230 BY 1445Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS DURING THE NEXT HOUR SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...A SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN TX. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR PALESTINE TO NEAR COLLEGE STATION IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 45 KT. STORMS STILL APPEAR ORGANIZED WITH BOW ECHO STRUCTURES AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN TX. MOREOVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS. THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO UNDERGO SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION TO EXTEND THE WATCH FARTHER EAST. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30519519 32379507 32759428 31529391 30439443 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 16:17:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 11:17:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081627.j48GRTBg002978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081626 TXZ000-081730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... VALID 081626Z - 081730Z CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF S CNTRL TX IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MCS EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NEAR LONGVIEW SWWD TO NEAR HONDO. STORMS ARE WEAKENING ALONG ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED SWRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR HONDO. WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY AND IS DELAYING HEATING. HOWEVER...THE STATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT FROM THE S. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR S...AND IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHERE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY EXISTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS NEAR HONDO WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY INTENSIFY WITH TIME. OTHER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CAP WEAKENS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28500013 29709962 30139636 30139522 29319484 28509659 27989916 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 17:57:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 12:57:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081807.j48I75JD023013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081806 OKZ000-TXZ000-082000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK/NW TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION/HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081806Z - 082000Z ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG BOTH DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM NW TX AND ALONG TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TX MCS... FIRST...TOWERING CU HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF SNK ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS ANALYZED VCNTY CDS/SNK/MAF/FST. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME CUMULUS FORMING AS FAR NE AS WICHITA FALLS. ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. JAYTON TX PROFILER SHOWS 30-35 KT OF FLOW NEAR 5KM...AND AREA VAD WIND DATA FROM FREDERICK OK SUPPORTS THIS. DRYLINE WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AND WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTN. SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG TSTM OUTFLOW VCNTY SJT/DLF. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER IN THIS REGION...SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 29179997 29950152 32200187 34900001 34849917 34589866 33079921 31389885 29499871 28729911 28709982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 18:02:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 13:02:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081812.j48IC5sM026295@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081810 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-082045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN SD...WRN MN AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081810Z - 082045Z ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BUT...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL SD SWD THROUGH E CNTRL NEB. A DRY LINE EXISTS E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB. A SUBTLE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MN NWWD INTO SERN ND. A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX IS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL NEB. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EAST...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NERN NEB THROUGH SERN SD ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER N AND E IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SERN ND AND WRN MN AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN SD...SERN ND INTO SWRN MN WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SELY TO THE E OF SURFACE LOW. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS... 42159758 43279841 44899915 46370036 47629902 47609709 45899536 42839625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:02:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:02:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081912.j48JCE6H028576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081911 MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-082015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN KS AND ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081911Z - 082015Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT FROM CNTRL KS NEWD THROUGH ERN NEB. SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE CAP REMAINING AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM NERN KS INTO ERN NEB WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38379825 40209757 41939711 41079577 39389565 38209694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:35:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:35:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505081945.j48JjFp5017621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081944 TXZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 231... VALID 081944Z - 082145Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH BEST THREAT IN THE AREA BETWEEN VICTORIA AND HOUSTON NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN TX JUST N OF HOUSTON WWD TO NW OF VICTORIA TO S OF HONDO. MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE FROM VICTORIA TO NEAR HOUSTON. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND JUST S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SLOWLY SWD. VWPS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND HOUSTON SHOW ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR OF 40+ KT WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. BOW ECHO STRUCTURES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STORMS WILL TEND TO BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29430000 29279829 29669741 30099645 30129474 29279487 28519615 28229827 28150008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 19:57:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 14:57:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082006.j48K6qfp032635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082005 IAZ000-082130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082005Z - 082130Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL IA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RUC DATA SUGGEST VERY LITTLE CAP REMAINING ACROSS THIS AREA. MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THROUGH MO AND INTO SRN IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. CAP APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS NWD TOWARD IA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40759423 42379483 43349411 43069198 40869227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 20:45:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 15:45:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082055.j48KtBLf030325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082054 LAZ000-TXZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX UPPER COASTAL PLAIN/SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082054Z - 082230Z ...AREA BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL... ALTHOUGH MCS COMPLEX IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESS E/SEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN POTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 231...THERE ARE A FEW STORMS WHICH ARE PROPAGATING TO THE E/NE. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW APPROACHING TX HILL COUNTRY IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/STRONG VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. AREA VWP DATA SHOW 50 KT OF FLOW NEAR 5KM...SO THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO SRN LA. ..TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31379392 31139274 30619220 29829222 29719269 29589450 30189571 30429576 30729560 31119514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 22:53:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 17:53:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082303.j48N3638014032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082302 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL/ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234... VALID 082302Z - 090100Z CONTINUE WW. DRY LINE IS FOCUS FOR SCATTERED ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES VICINITY OF DRY LINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AT BEST. WITH COLD FRONT ONLY GRADUALLY MERGING INTO DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING AND STABILIZATION OCCURS TOWARD 02-03Z. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...NOW NEAR HUTCHINSON...TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOCAL INSTABILITY MAXIMUM...TOWARD THE WICHITA AREA. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ..KERR.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38529775 39089733 39279703 39919676 40329613 39219635 38599639 38099625 37439650 37119665 36779728 37009788 37849804 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 8 23:33:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 18:33:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505082343.j48Nhmla002980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082342 TXZ000-090115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082342Z - 090115Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 01Z ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW. WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM SE TX MCS WILL COLLIDE WITH SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IN THE AREA NE THROUGH S OF JCT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...WHERE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY ABOUT 01Z AS THE COOL/RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE STALLED DRYLINE/TROUGH FROM THE E. ..THOMPSON.. 05/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... 30699978 31129950 31289897 31109857 30849857 30339908 29529966 29660022 29960039 30359995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 00:05:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 19:05:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090015.j490FR02019317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090014 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/NRN IA/MN/WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090014Z - 090215Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 02Z...BUT NEW WWS MAY NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SOLIDIFY IN CYCLONIC ARC EAST OF BISMARCK ND THROUGH THE SIOUX FALLS SD/OMAHA NEB AREAS. THIS APPEARS TO CORRESPOND WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. JUST EAST OF THIS LINE...NORTH OF FORT DODGE IA INTO THE MANKATO MN AREA...AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH SURFACE COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME PRIMARY THREAT SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF CONVECTION...TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF GRAND FORKS ND/DULUTH MN/LA CROSSE WI...REMAINS WARM AND MOIST. THIS WILL ENHANCE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...CONTRIBUTING TO WIND POTENTIAL. NORTH/EAST OF THIS LINE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH IN COOLER/COOLING LOW ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS... 47779939 48829719 47719309 45489143 43839152 42829391 41959515 41409626 42939604 44049608 45959814 46379873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 00:44:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 19:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090054.j490shnJ006090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090053 OKZ000-KSZ000-090300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/CNTRL AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234... VALID 090053Z - 090300Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 234. FORCING ON TAIL END OF IMPULSE SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND SOUTH DAKOTA MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NORTH OF MANHATTAN INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF WICHITA. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. EAST OF THE TOPEKA/CHANUTE AREAS...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL AND STABLE. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING EVEN IN AREAS TO THE WEST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. MODELS SUGGEST VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH BASE OF NORTHERN PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION ALONG/ EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SOUTH OF WICHITA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED...AND RISK OF LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE ON EASTERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38189737 38489656 37889591 37069554 36389536 35939554 35299654 35559744 36369771 36999777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 02:01:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 21:01:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090211.j492BSYf013825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090210 TXZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237... VALID 090210Z - 090315Z ACROSS WW 237...SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SSE ALONG COASTAL SHORE SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. OVER THE PAST 15-30 MINUTES PRIOR TO 02Z...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA/INFRARED SATELLITE TRENDS FEATURE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WWD ALONG SWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE FALFURRIAS/HEBBRONVILLE AREAS. PER MODIFIED 00Z CRP RAOB...AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 80S. THUS SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW 237 IN THE SHORT TERM. ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 237 /ROUGHLY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI W AND NW/...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED. WITH PRIMARY SUPERCELL NOW OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI...AND IF THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND REMAINS WEAK/DISORGANIZED OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WW 237 MAY ULTIMATELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 04Z EXPIRATION. ..GUYER.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 27549916 27439802 27499737 27889669 26779656 26779661 26589800 26729897 27029927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 02:20:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 21:20:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090230.j492UMtr024550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090229 TXZ000-090330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090229Z - 090330Z MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AT AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS SCNTRL TX INTO AIRMASS STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THUS AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT HOUR OR INTO AREAS AROUND/NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO...DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED AMIDST CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F AT 02Z. WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ONGOING MCS...AND THUS ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY. ..GUYER.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30309962 30099889 30349808 30619723 30179670 29539800 29369894 29389935 29839970 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 04:21:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 May 2005 23:21:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505090431.j494VLxu026341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090430 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090430 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...NRN/ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090430Z - 090630Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE WITH STRONG STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTH/EAST OF THE WICHITA KS AREA...MAINTAINED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION... BENEATH BASE OF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOUTHWARD SURGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. LOWER/ MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND...AS 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... INHIBITION ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL HOLD FIRM OR STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36759777 37389736 37729676 37709583 37549507 36729461 35419477 34999583 35659659 35879729 36489818 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:10:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:10:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091620.j49GKSKw002738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091619 LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-091745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091619Z - 091745Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SRN LA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS LA...SE AR AND WRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM LA THROUGH ERN AR AND WRN MS. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST CELL LOCATED IN SERN LA WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE ACROSS SE LA...THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE SFC-BASED AS TEMPS HEAT UP AND THE CAP WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE STORMS PATH. THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LA...WRN MS AND FAR SE AR...AS TEMPS HEAT AND INSTABILITY INCREASES TODAY...STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL LA AND SE AR. IF STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE...THE INSTABILITY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32388986 30288949 29338979 29229136 29549331 30759309 32159250 33879151 33459027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 16:51:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 11:51:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091701.j49H14N9000853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091700 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091700Z - 091830Z AN ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK NNEWD. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN MN...ECNTRL IA WITH A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO SE MN...SW WI AND IL. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS IS HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS FAR SW WI AND NRN IL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NNEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A VORTICITY MAX OVER SE IA SPREADS STRONG LIFT OVER THE AREA...EVIDENT ON THE RUC ANALYSIS. SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 44119079 44188992 43128837 41798756 40878731 40218782 40468899 42058982 43359112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 17:49:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 12:49:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091759.j49Hx6qj014024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091758 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-091930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091758Z - 091930Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER FAR NE SD WITH A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT SPREADING NEWD BEHIND A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS SRN MN AND CNTRL IA. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO HEAT UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN...CELLS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN WI AND FAR ERN MN WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING OF 7.0 C/KM. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 44069282 44989380 45709549 46439542 46819455 46769297 45739124 44789047 43669064 43399230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 18:13:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 13:13:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091823.j49ING8I032423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091822 CAZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091822Z - 092015Z ...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NRN/CNTRL CA VALLEYS THIS AFTN... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW NOW OVER EXTREME NRN CA NEAR THE ORE BORDER...WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE REGION SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND DATA FROM SACRAMENTO SUGGESTS AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL TSTMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT COUPLED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO GUSTY TSTM WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALTHOUGH BRIEF LOW LEVEL ROTATION OR BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE FROM STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...EKA... 38712054 40472190 40432300 38712298 36412009 36981903 37641922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 19:21:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 14:21:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505091931.j49JVMS4021215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091930 IDZ000-MTZ000-092100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091930Z - 092100Z CONVECTION ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN ID WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE ORE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER-FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM ERN ORE...ID AND WRN WY. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT CONTINUING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -18 TO -20C WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... 44561471 44851389 44621289 43751197 42701200 42211236 42031319 42271392 43411467 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 19:54:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 14:54:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092004.j49K4eGU015077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092003 TXZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092003Z - 092200Z ...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN GIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT... TOWERING CUMULUS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND BURNETT PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LTG RECENTLY OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF CONTINUED MIXING...BUT IF STORMS FORM...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT IN THIS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SVR TSTM WATCH. ..TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29849925 30340020 31509980 32349929 32379813 31469799 30619805 30229824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 20:22:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 15:22:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092032.j49KWMZ6006689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092031 ILZ000-WIZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239... VALID 092031Z - 092200Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EWD REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP TO THE WEST ACROSS SCNTRL WI AND POSSIBLY NRN IL. A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST WITH ANY NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW 239. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS SE MN AND ERN IA WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED FROM NWRN WI EXTENDING SEWD INTO NRN IL. A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT NEW CELLS ARE INITIATING BACK TO THE WEST WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. THESE NEW CELLS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE AS THE CELLS MOVE NEWD INTO A POCKET OF HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ENE OF I-90. ..BROYLES.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41218863 41498962 44269050 45039062 45249002 45188862 44608827 41838756 41298764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 21:35:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 16:35:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092145.j49LjMI8032220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092144 MSZ000-LAZ000-092345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA / MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092144Z - 092345Z WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL STORMS WILL BE BELOW WATCH CRITERIA...ISOLATED REPORTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LARGEST HAIL STONES FROM CENTRAL MS SWD INTO ERN LA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...WLY SFC-850 FLOW AND RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MID LEVEL COOL AXIS. WHILE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY WEAK...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH HEIGHT...WITH STRONGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS AVERAGING 35-40 KTS OVER SRN MS / LA. GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY WARM / UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SW...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A REPORT OR TWO UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. ..JEWELL.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30579201 31389190 32529103 34689038 34048915 33638873 32418883 30858907 30358960 29999082 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 22:22:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 17:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092232.j49MWiKM029638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092232 INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WI...CNTRL AND NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239... VALID 092232Z - 092300Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. MUCH...IF NOT ALL... OF 239 MAY BE CLEARED OR CANCELLED AROUND 23Z. FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG HAS LIMITED STRENGTH OF MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...AND PEAK INTENSITIES MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. WITH APPROACH OF SUNSET...AND ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING... THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...AS WELL AS WITH ISOLATED STORMS LINGERING NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE DECATUR/CHAMPAIGN AREAS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 45359084 45348848 41198722 41148958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 9 22:50:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 17:50:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505092300.j49N0HvN012823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092259 TXZ000-100100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240... VALID 092259Z - 100100Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND...PERHAPS...WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME EAST OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/WEST OF THE AUSTIN TX AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BASED IN MOIST MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...WITH A SLOW WESTWARD/ NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS ALONG OUTFLOWS. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND INHIBITION INCREASES FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. ..KERR.. 05/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31739852 32349817 33189790 31999723 31159716 30189813 30199882 30369945 30919961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 01:11:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 20:11:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505100121.j4A1LW7r018351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100120 TXZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100120Z - 100315Z CURRENT PLANS ARE TO ALLOW WW 240 TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...BUT CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. NEWEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF BROWNWOOD IS OCCURRING ABOVE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING STORMS SOUTH/WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND EAST OF JUNCTION. NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BECOME BASED ABOVE INVERSION SHORTLY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL COMPLETELY END. DESPITE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAN ANGELO/ABILENE AREAS BY 03-06Z. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA...AND INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY WITH NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION. IF LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ARE REACHED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE ENOUGH CAPE FOR HAIL THREAT...DESPITE WEAKNESS OF MID/UPPER FLOW. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32250138 33889940 33919846 32369709 31209795 30419879 29829966 29820081 30520168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 16:24:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 11:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101634.j4AGYiQ4015283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101633 GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN AND ERN GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101633Z - 101830Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE AL...SRN GA...ERN GA AND WRN SC. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN GA WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SECONDARY VORT MAX ACROSS MS. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN GA AND PARTS OF SRN AL WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY FROM SWRN GA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MS. AS CELLS INITIATE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVE SEWD...THE MODERATE SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31958181 33598151 34668202 34758295 34348335 33938345 32968356 32148403 32238637 31858709 31118704 30748660 30578425 30818255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 18:26:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 13:26:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101836.j4AIaIBY011679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101835 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-102030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MS...NCNTRL AL...FAR WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101835Z - 102030Z STORM INITIATION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN AL. THE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE STORM COVERAGE CAN BE DETERMINED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN AL WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT OF SFC HEATING...THE CAPPING INVERSION IS GONE. IN ADDITION...THE PROFILER IN NE MS IS SHOWING A WIND SPEED INCREASE AT 6 KM WHICH MIGHT SHOW EVIDENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER-TROUGH. AS CELLS INITIATE FROM THE TOWERING CU EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY...THE SPEED MAX MAY ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND THE ENHANCED SHEAR WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32778851 33398867 34188826 34598605 34418542 33758499 33158511 32788637 32558819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 18:47:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 13:47:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101856.j4AIuoau028036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101855 VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-102030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WV...WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101855Z - 102030Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM CNTRL KY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS OH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. CELLS HAVE INITIATED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS ALONG A BAND OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD MOVING TROUGH. CELLS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE MOVING EWD INTO ERN OH...WRN PA AND WV THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... 39228222 41148273 41628223 41978094 41687994 40777935 39757926 38527914 37507947 37098056 37068181 38258226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 19:15:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 14:15:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505101924.j4AJOshu017309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101923 TXZ000-NMZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101923Z - 102130Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE INITIATION BECOMES EVIDENT...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS REGION. DRYLINE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED...EXTENDING AT 19Z FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SSWWD TO NEAR LBB AND INTO THE DAVIS MTNS AREA. RICH GULF MOISTURE PERSISTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS PROGRESSING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND READINGS NEAR 60 AROUND MAF AND BETWEEN LBB/CDS. THE 18Z RUC SHOWS CONTINUED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL CO SWD INTO ERN NM AND FAR SWRN TX. IF THE ISOBARIC RESPONSE MAINTAINS A SSELY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO...MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES INTO ERN TX BY 00Z. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE START OF TOWERING CU ALONG THE DAVIS MTNS AND SCATTERED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES 1500-3000 J/KG/ AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /UP TO 9 C/KM/ SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40KT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...MINIMAL CIN...AND SELY SURFACE WINDS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES 22-01Z. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32580097 33530023 34349994 34730015 34950080 34470143 33780222 33120280 32490333 31510395 30900419 30660415 30420386 30380329 30600264 31340185 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 21:53:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 16:53:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102203.j4AM30oa012419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102201 IAZ000-NEZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THRU ERN NEB INTO SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102201Z - 110000Z WW IS LIKELY WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING VICINITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOOPS OF LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING INHIBITION. BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN MOIST LAYER LIFTING OVER FRONT...APPEAR LIKELY TO APPROACH 3000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN KANSAS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER FEATURE ROUNDS CREST OF BROADER-SCALE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER AS EARLY AS 23-00Z TIME FRAME...FROM VICINITY OF DRY LINE FRONT INTERSECTION SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE INTO VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTION SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40640044 41300038 42079879 42249727 42169619 41579526 40919540 40529642 40549761 40419819 40279974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:45:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:45:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102255.j4AMtSBk010195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102254 SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/NE AL/NRN...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102254Z - 110000Z INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. ONGOING STORMS OVER MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEAR PRIMARILY FORCED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FIRST...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 01- 02Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AREAS. UNTIL STORMS DISSIPATE...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT PEAK SIZES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36938600 36438500 35508459 34788484 34258455 33638401 33318321 33318217 33738151 34008137 34418115 34658058 34387991 34047944 32987987 31868180 31898298 32188432 32968432 33758543 34738601 35228567 36168647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:56:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:56:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102306.j4AN6Q8o016103@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102305 SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/NE AL/NRN...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102305Z - 110000Z INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. ONGOING STORMS OVER MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEAR PRIMARILY FORCED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FIRST...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 01- 02Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AREAS. UNTIL STORMS DISSIPATE...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT PEAK SIZES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36938600 36438500 35508459 34788484 34258455 33638401 33318321 33318217 33738151 34008137 34418115 34658058 34387991 34047944 32987987 31868180 31898298 32188432 32968432 33758543 34738601 35228567 36168647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:57:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:57:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102306.j4AN6nvX016354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102306 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX...FAR SERN NM...THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 102306Z - 110030Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 241 AND 242 CONTINUE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX...FAR SERN NM...AND WRN OK. AT 2245Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE DRYLINE. MOST INTENSE/LARGE STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER NEAR HOBBS...WITH PROPAGATIONAL MOTION NNEWD AT 40KT. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND ALSO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /MID 80S TO LOW 90S/ CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE CYCLONIC AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES EWD TOWARD ERN TX THIS EVENING. MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN MAF VICINITY. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT IN SWRN TX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN WW 241 WHICH COVERS THE TX PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WEST OF SOUTH. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F NEAR THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE STORMS MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 30290234 29740249 29540331 29630396 30020447 30710476 32480447 33810369 35280223 37080056 37089903 37029827 34659938 33090088 32410153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:58:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:58:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102307.j4AN7the016874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102305 SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/NE AL/NRN...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102305Z - 110000Z INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. ONGOING STORMS OVER MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA APPEAR PRIMARILY FORCED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FIRST...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 01- 02Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH...AND MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AS IT APPROACHES THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH AREAS. UNTIL STORMS DISSIPATE...HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT PEAK SIZES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 36938600 36438500 35508459 34788484 34258455 33638401 33318321 33318217 33738151 34008137 34418115 34658058 34387991 34047944 32987987 31868180 31898298 32188432 32968432 33758543 34738601 35228567 36168647  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 22:58:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 17:58:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102308.j4AN8Aed017453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102306 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0606 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX...FAR SERN NM...THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 102306Z - 110030Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 241 AND 242 CONTINUE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX...FAR SERN NM...AND WRN OK. AT 2245Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE DRYLINE. MOST INTENSE/LARGE STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER NEAR HOBBS...WITH PROPAGATIONAL MOTION NNEWD AT 40KT. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND ALSO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /MID 80S TO LOW 90S/ CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE CYCLONIC AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES EWD TOWARD ERN TX THIS EVENING. MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN MAF VICINITY. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT IN SWRN TX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN WW 241 WHICH COVERS THE TX PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WEST OF SOUTH. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F NEAR THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE STORMS MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 30290234 29740249 29540331 29630396 30020447 30710476 32480447 33810369 35280223 37080056 37089903 37029827 34659938 33090088 32410153  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 10 23:33:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 18:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505102343.j4ANh1is007293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102341 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY...WRN NEB...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102341Z - 110045Z WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE NORTH OF DENVER...WHERE MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. CAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK AT AROUND 500 J/KG ...BUT WESTERLY ADVECTION OF 50+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE FROM WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHORTLY...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN FAVORABLE DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...AND STRENGTHENING FORCING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING...MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/10/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40130494 40570521 41500506 41850432 41700342 41620209 41860017 41799938 40889902 40000009 39770164 39650338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 00:21:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 19:21:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110031.j4B0VGXu002227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110030 IAZ000-ILZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110030Z - 110230Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. BOUNDARY EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF OMAHA THROUGH THE DES MOINES AREA...EASTWARD INTO THE QUAD CITIES. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW EVOLVING ON NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF OMAHA MAY CONTINUE INTO AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF DES MOINES AS EARLY AS 02-03Z. MORE RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD INCREASE AS MODERATE TO STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR AIDS FORWARD PROPAGATION/ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42909420 43289301 43109191 42439071 41289090 41089174 41549325 41799410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:06:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:06:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110215.j4B2Fixi003031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110214 IAZ000-NEZ000-110415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243... VALID 110214Z - 110415Z CONTINUE WW 243. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND INITIAL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ONE...NOW SHIFTING EAST OF GRAND ISLAND...IS OCCURRING NEAR WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING INTO CREST OF BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. SECOND CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF DES MOINES. LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASCENT OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR...WILL SUPPORT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN HAIL THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS RADIATIONAL INVERSION DEEPENS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED IN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO NORTH. DAMAGING WIND THREAT...HOWEVER...COULD INCREASE ACROSS IOWA...AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES...POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41389802 41979719 42669618 43159478 43209317 42909235 42439192 41779226 41379310 41459347 41309524 40759815 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:31:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:31:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110240.j4B2esFl018053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110239 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 110239Z - 110315Z TRENDS FOR SVR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW/S 241 AND 242. THUS BOTH WW/S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF FOR CONDITIONS OVER WW/S 241 AND 242...MUCINH HAS INCREASED TO OVER 100 J/KG. INCREASING SSELY LOW LEVEL JET NOTED ON RECENT PROFILER DATA...FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 40 KTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY AID IN SUSTAINING THE STRONGEST STORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF WW 241 AND NERN PORTION OF WW 242 UNTIL 04Z-05Z. INCREASING CINH TO OVER 200 J/KG AND LIKELY DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR REPLACEMENT WW/S OVER THE REGION. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32250191 32740263 34060176 36990051 37079906 36659874 35759940 34860065 33580138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:45:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:45:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110254.j4B2sudf027360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110254 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-110500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...SRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110254Z - 110500Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION. BAND OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD INTO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER APPEARS TO BE BASED NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL...ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER. NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARD ONTARIO APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE THIS FAR NORTH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...AS INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE-80 CORRIDOR NEXT FEW HOURS...RISK OF HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS LIKELY WILL DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42629716 42919680 43289612 43709449 43629299 43539171 43349070 42669103 42769138 42879275 42929411 42839518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 02:51:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 21:51:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110301.j4B31SCd031497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110300 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242... VALID 110300Z - 110330Z TRENDS FOR SVR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW/S 241 AND 242. THUS BOTH WW/S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND MAF FOR CONDITIONS OVER WW/S 241 AND 242...MUCINH HAS INCREASED TO OVER 100 J/KG. INCREASING SSELY LOW LEVEL JET NOTED ON RECENT PROFILER DATA...FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 40 KTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY AID IN SUSTAINING THE STRONGEST STORM CLUSTERS OVER NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF WW 241 AND NERN PORTION OF WW 242 UNTIL 04Z-05Z. INCREASING CINH TO OVER 200 J/KG AND LIKELY DEMISE OF THE CONVECTION BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR REPLACEMENT WW/S OVER THE REGION. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32250191 32740263 34060176 36990051 37079906 36659874 35759940 34860065 33580138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 04:26:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 23:26:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110436.j4B4a678021582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110435 ILZ000-IAZ000-110600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL/SRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243... VALID 110435Z - 110600Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW SEVERE WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS IOWA BEFORE 06Z. MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST TO COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT...NEAR/EAST OF WAVE/MESO LOW WHICH REMAINS EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA MIGRATING ACROSS THE OMAHA AREA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. SEVERAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT HAVE BEEN MEASURED NEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE DES MOINES AREA BY THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME. DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW APPROACHING DES MOINES...IS ALSO SHOWING INCREASING SIGNS OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FAVOR CONTINUATION OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ..KERR.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41799583 42649534 42819324 42769163 41439074 41019170 41169362 41149531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 08:02:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 03:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505110812.j4B8CQjU016640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110811 ILZ000-IAZ000-111015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110811Z - 111015Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS INTO NWRN IL AROUND 09Z... LEADING EDGE OF EVER BROADENING MCS OVER IA HAS EVOLVED INTO A STRONG LINE SEGMENT ROUGHLY 50 MI IN LENGTH FROM JONES COUNTY TO WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE VERY NEAR UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND MAY SOON BEGIN TO TURN A BIT SEWD AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN IL. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION INTO UPSHEAR SIDE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP INTO SERN IA...OTHERWISE SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 35 KT WITH NEAR SEVERE GUSTS ALONG LEADING WIND SHIFT. ALTHOUGH WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPWARD EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 42079145 41968917 40958935 41279186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 13:33:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 08:33:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111343.j4BDhCBg025722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111341 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0841 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN MO...FAR WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111341Z - 111545Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER NE KS...NRN MO AND FAR WRN IL AS ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN KS EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN MO. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE TOP 12Z SOUNDING. A VORTICITY MAX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CNTRL KS AS SHOWN ON THE RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH NOT YET CERTAIN...INCREASED LIFT AS THE VORTICITY MAX MOVES ACROSS NE KS AND NWRN MO...COULD AID NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL MO AND POSSIBLY NE KS AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM40/SREF/WRF MODELS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -8 NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38669521 38919722 39259745 40409710 40409519 40759353 41109162 40509099 39809108 39159287 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 15:37:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 10:37:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111546.j4BFks9b030679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111546 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111545 FLZ000-GAZ000-111815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111545Z - 111815Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN GA/NRN AND CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. THREAT EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL WITH LONG-LIVED/STRONG CORES. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW AND A SLGT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE 700-500MB THERMAL LOW ANALYZED ACROSS SERN GA THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS SEWD ALONG THE NERN FL COAST AND INTO THE ADJACENT SERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THIS FEATURE HAS ESTABLISHED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.0 C/KM AT JAX AND CHS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEVELOPING SEABREEZES AND OTHER SMALL-SCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30KT FROM THE NW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS AND MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31218123 31668112 31828126 31858164 31568222 31268278 31098329 30388361 30058359 29738343 29478311 29228280 28118270 27898221 27888104 27988051 29008090 29618116 30388115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 16:45:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 11:45:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111654.j4BGsr0a021548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111654 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-111900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111654Z - 111900Z ONGOING STORMS IN NRN IND AND NEW CELLS THAT INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE STORMS STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EWD. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL IL EXTENDING ENEWD INTO FAR NW OH AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION IS PRESENT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WARMING SFC TEMPS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED THE CAPPING INVERSION MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF INDIANAPOLIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL IND INTO FAR NW OH. CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE LOWER TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MULTICELLS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 3 KM AS SHOWN IN THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN INITIATE OR WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 41358349 40918333 40488380 39898507 39188603 39278656 39878699 40188688 41108637 41628555 41728468 41668383 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 18:28:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 13:28:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111837.j4BIbsxZ012227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111837 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111837Z - 112030Z SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS NE MO AND POSSIBLY CNTRL IL. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM NRN MO ACROSS NCNTRL IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FILES SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT. AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP IN NE MO OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. EWD EXTENT OF THREAT QUESTIONABLE INTO CENTRAL IL WHERE CU FIELD REMAINS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRONGER STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF MO AND INTO AT LEAST W-CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 39069273 39479302 40009296 40479231 40629001 40368825 39408817 38988930 38939163 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 19:16:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 14:16:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111925.j4BJPptD019241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111925 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES...MUCH OF WRN TX...AND FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111925Z - 112130Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN A NORTH-SOUTH LINE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THREAT EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA THROUGH EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. AT 19Z...999MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SERN CO WITH AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE WRN OK PANHANDLE...SWD TO NEAR A AMA-LBB-MAF LINE. INSOLATIONAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES AN AXIS OF TOWERING CU ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COINCIDENT AXIS OF CONFLUENT SURFACE WINDS. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...AS 500MB JET ROTATES NEWD FROM NERN NM INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. HOWEVER...SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35KT IN THE PANHANDLES SHOULD STILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALSO...THE 17Z OBSERVED AMA SOUNDING INDICATED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 2" IN DIAMETER...THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND WITH INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL JET TOWARD 12/00Z...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASED SRH AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34400194 36040182 36860178 37020089 37000021 36899965 36339956 35479959 33399998 32490046 31880110 31740181 32070213 33290233 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 19:22:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 14:22:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111932.j4BJW47A023468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111931 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111931Z - 112130Z SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NW KS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED FROM ECNTRL CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE CO-KS STATE-LINE AND SEWD AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 4000 J/KG. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT JUST TO THE NORTH OF GOODLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS FAR NW KS...SW NEB AND ERN CO WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO 75 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TOWERS MAY STRUGGLE WITH THE SHEAR INITIALLY...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR. CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD AND QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. CELLS THAT INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE DRYLINE...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. OTHER CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN CO WHERE STRONG SHEAR EXISTS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 41490107 41320089 40319888 40390065 40290338 40060466 39550474 38680470 38150365 37140207 37160063 38219974 39079861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 19:27:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 14:27:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505111937.j4BJbBBO027090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111936 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111936Z - 112130Z SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NW KS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED FROM ECNTRL CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE CO-KS STATE-LINE AND SEWD AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 4000 J/KG. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT JUST TO THE NORTH OF GOODLAND. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS FAR NW KS...SW NEB AND ERN CO WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO 75 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH CUMULUS TOWERS MAY STRUGGLE WITH THE SHEAR INITIALLY...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR. CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD AND QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. CELLS THAT INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE DRYLINE...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. OTHER CELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS ERN CO WHERE STRONG SHEAR EXISTS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40319888 40390065 40290338 40060466 39550474 38680470 38150365 37140207 37160063 38219974 39079861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:12:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112022.j4BKM8LZ028631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112021 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN OH...CENTRAL IND...AND E-CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... VALID 112021Z - 112215Z WW 246 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN OH AND ERN IND. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IND INTO E-CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS POSE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND MAY NECESSITATE AN ADDITIONAL WATCH. AT 20Z...SCATTERED NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 10S FWA TO 20S LAF TO 30NE MTO. AXIS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY EWD AT 20-25 KT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM 30-35KT...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LONG-LIVED...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SRH IS LIMITED...ALONG WITH LOW MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THUS...PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CELLS IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. FURTHER EAST...ACROSS WW 246...ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH INTO E-CENTRAL IND WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH ERN OH HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL ISOLATED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LASTLY...NORTH WINDS FROM LAKE ERIE HAVE EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN OHIO GIVEN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN PORTION OF WATCH AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40368765 40738625 41158521 41408461 41418401 41108396 40738392 40218441 39578524 39408624 39248693 39138772 39158808 39418862 39778884 40188895 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:32:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:32:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112042.j4BKg3DS012622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112041 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245... VALID 112041Z - 112215Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW 245. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO...A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR KANSAS CITY ALONG AN EAST TO WEST INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG EXIST. IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL THREAT AS STORMS TRACK NEWD INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR. INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS AREA BUT IS STILL SUFFICIENT...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38749246 39069387 38979558 39009634 39499652 39989636 40229513 40139295 39729175 39039172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 20:52:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 15:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112101.j4BL1pjL028008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112100 NEZ000-112300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEB...AND FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112100Z - 112300Z THREAT EXISTS FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB AND FAR NERN CO THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #252 HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. AT 2045Z...STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS SRN NEB...NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 K/KG/. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR A PLUME OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PROGRESS NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE 18Z RUC INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO TONIGHT. WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH LONGER-LIVED CORES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40799997 40900141 41430227 42480234 42850181 42890026 42739878 42399815 41739761 41199739 40669765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 21:44:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 16:44:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112154.j4BLsApi001357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112153 KSZ000-NEZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL/NEB KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248... VALID 112153Z - 112330Z THROUGH 23Z...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 2137Z...HASTINGS/BLUE HILL NEB REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWING SAGGING SWD AT 5-10 KTS FROM APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MILES N OF CNK TO AROUND 45 SW OF EAR. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY EXISTS /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AS MUCH AS 50 MILES N OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-250 M2/S2. GIVEN THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS CROSSING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NWD TO JUST S OF I-80. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40689983 40589675 38689676 38799984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 22:04:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 17:04:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112214.j4BMEODP016039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112213 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-112345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 249... VALID 112213Z - 112345Z THROUGH 23Z-00Z...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 2200Z...GLD VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOW 3 WELL-DEFINED SUPERCELLS...35 SW OF IML...45 NW GLD...AND 35 NW OF GLD MOVING 205-210 AT 25-30 KTS. INSPECTION OF RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT INTERSECTION OF HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WITH DRYLINE WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT GLD VWP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2. MOREOVER...A SUBTLE BOUNDARY /POSSIBLY WARM FRONT/ CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM 45 ESE OF AKO TO NEWD TO NEAR MCK WITH LIKELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND N OF THIS FEATURE. THROUGH 23-00Z...IT APPEARS GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD AND INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40220332 40250006 37059926 37000235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 22:16:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 17:16:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112226.j4BMQZ6H023355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112225 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ERN KS AND WRN/CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 245...253... VALID 112225Z - 120030Z CONTINUE WW 245 AND WW 253. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/NERN KS INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2"/HOUR. AT 11/22Z...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND FROM 20NE MHK...THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...AND ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL MO NORTH OF COU. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REINFORCE MESOSCALE COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH 15-25KT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING NEW CELLS WITH VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A SLOW SWD PROPAGATION OF COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH CONVECTIVE STORMS MIGRATING INTO WW 253 ACROSS FAR ERN KS AND W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MO DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN SWRN MO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE NWD INTO ONGOING STORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF STORMS AT THAT TIME. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT BRIEF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CELLS AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8C/KM/ AND 30KT SFC-6KM SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...WHICH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. LASTLY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRESENT A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS LONG AS SWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS REMAINS SLOW. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP... 37869176 38159504 38569596 38939660 39559691 39939693 40139641 40099571 40119490 40189362 40099302 39749242 39169190 38919179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 23:15:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 18:15:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112325.j4BNPA5x025104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112324 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PNHDLS INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250... VALID 112324Z - 120100Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE THIS EVENING. AS OF 2313Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE FROM 30SE EHA TO NEAR AMA TO NEAR LBB. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN INHIBITED BY: 1) DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIKELY LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE ENTRAINMENT OF CONVECTIVE MOIST PLUMES ALONG DRYLINE...AND 2) RELATIVELY WEAK OR SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE MOTION TO THE S OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ AND 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 37030183 37039963 33319924 33340135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 23:19:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 18:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505112329.j4BNTc0d028152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112328 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL IND...AND CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251... VALID 112328Z - 120130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #251 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IND EWD INTO WRN/W-CENTRAL OH. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL IL WILL YIELD A SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES LATE THIS EVENING. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 20NW CMH TO THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA AND WWD TO 10S SPI. RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL IL OCCURRED AS SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECTED PRE-EXISTING TROUGH AND AXIS OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 23Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON THE RUC...MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPSTREAM MCS AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CIRCULATION ACROSS NERN MO WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL IL...AND ALSO ACROSS THE WW 251 AREA TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH THE MAJORITY OF STORMS BECOMING SUB-SEVERE. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 40028944 40078773 40918482 41198340 39888289 38688715 38598811 38718887 38878929 39598998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 11 23:54:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 18:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120003.j4C03kJX016062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120002 NEZ000-COZ000-120130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEB INTO FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252... VALID 120002Z - 120130Z THROUGH 02-03Z...EXPECT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW AREA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE N OF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCK EWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AND THEN MORE SEWD TO NEAR CNK AND INTO E-CNTRL KS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS PROFILER PLAN VIEW FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING HODOGRAPHS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WHICH IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT...SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE FORCING N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG/N PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-3"/HOUR. TSTMS --AND INHERENT HAIL/HEAVY RAIN THREAT-- SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP EWD OR NEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG EWD-MIGRATING AND INTENSIFYING LLJ AXIS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41810269 41909658 40469656 40400274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 00:52:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 19:52:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120102.j4C12JFm015455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120101 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS INTO FAR SWRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 249... VALID 120101Z - 120200Z POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG DRYLINE. AS OF 0047Z...DDC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER E OF DRYLINE OVER STEVENS...GRANT...KEARNY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN SWRN KS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEEMINGLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DDC. FARTHER TO THE N...GLD REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DUNDY COUNTY NEB SWWD INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO MOVING EWD AT 20 KTS AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE NEAR GLD. THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION BECOME SUSTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DIURNAL BACKING AND INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITHIN COLLAPSING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER E OF DRYLINE ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40200331 40220009 37009923 37020238 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 01:22:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 20:22:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120132.j4C1WaU2031920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120131 TXZ000-NMZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120131Z - 120300Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RETREATING DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX /W OF FST AND INK/ NEWD INTO THE WRN S PLAINS /W OF LBB/ TO NEAR AMA. AIR MASS HAS REMAINED CAPPED TODAY LARGELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LITTLE OR NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TIME HEIGHT TRENDS FROM THE WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX. WEAK RADAR RETURNS NOTED OVER SRN LEA COUNTY NM ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL FROM 12/00Z RUC SUGGEST THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP AND INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW /LIKELY REPLACING WW 250/ MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT TSTMS CAN INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31680376 33500259 34650196 35640184 35870135 35160048 32790113 31070241 30920361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 02:17:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 21:17:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120226.j4C2Qqnn030159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120226 KSZ000-NEZ000-120330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO N-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248...249... VALID 120226Z - 120330Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON TO REPLACE TORNADO WATCHES 248 AND 249. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER PORTIONS OF WRN KANSAS /NAMELY GRANT...KEARNY AND FINNEY COUNTIES/ WITH A TORNADO RECENTLY REPORTED WITH A SUPERCELL OVER GRANT COUNTY. MODIFICATION OF 00Z DDC SOUNDING AND PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAP IS INCREASING E OF DRYLINE...THUS ONLY STORMS WITH ESTABLISHED...STRONG MESOCYCLONES MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST PAST 03Z. FARTHER TO THE N...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW IS PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS N-CNTRL KS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SURFACE LOW E OF GLD. A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG SLY 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON TO ACCOMMODATE SEVERE STORMS W AND NW OF GCK...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL THREAT N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N-CNTRL KS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... 37520168 38770150 39530073 40180004 39959888 39009912 37110070 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 02:27:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 21:27:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120237.j4C2b08C003195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120234 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PNHDLS INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250... VALID 120234Z - 120300Z TORNADO WATCH 250 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. DEVELOPING TSTM OVER GAINES COUNTY TX IS BEING MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX SHOULD TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 37040187 37049962 33339926 33340134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 02:49:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 21:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120259.j4C2xP6R015817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120258 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IN/SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120258Z - 120430Z ...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT TREND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING... LEADING EDGE OF MCS EXTENDS FROM MTO TO NEAR BLV...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALREADY WELL SOUTH OF BLV AND ST LOUIS. PROFILER DATA FROM BLOOMFIELD MO SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN THREAT ACROSS SRN IL SHOULD BE FROM GUSTY WINDS...AS SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 30-35 KT GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS IND...FLOW IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS SRN IND. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38288978 39208962 40078739 40078354 38828342 38008574 37818785 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 03:54:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 May 2005 22:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120405.j4C456up018512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120402 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-120500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB AND NERN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...254... VALID 120402Z - 120500Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD EWD FROM CNTRL INTO ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 252. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W-E LINE OF ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM NE OF MCK TO W OF LNK GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF 252. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SLY LLJ ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER IS LIKELY SUSTAINING ONGOING ACTIVITY. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INFLUX OF 11-12 G/KG AIR BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. AS LLJ SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NEB. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ ALONG WITH TRAINING STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH RATES APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2.5"/HOUR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 252. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 41930124 41949670 41869611 40409559 39709550 39649667 40399674 40430128 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 08:35:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 03:35:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505120845.j4C8j8BY011974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120844 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-120945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255...256... VALID 120844Z - 120945Z ...STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 256 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION IS PROPAGATING EWD AT ROUGHLY 25 KT ACROSS SCNTRL NEB...NRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED...ALTHOUGH STRONG UPDRAFTS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN ELONGATED BAND OF STORMS. WITH LLJ GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS NERN KS...AND BECOMING MORE FOCUSED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...IT APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THIS REGION. OF PARTICULAR NOTE...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SOON SHIFT AWAY FROM FLOODED PORTIONS OF SCNTRL NEB AS MCS MOVES DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39229886 41699671 40719533 39259690 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 14:26:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 09:26:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121435.j4CEZpsS023591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121434 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-121630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121434Z - 121630Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE FROM MOST VIGOROUS/PERSISTENT CELLS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS -- INCLUDING W TX MESONET AND SCHOOL DATA -- SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS REGION FASTER THAN PROGGED. FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 1415Z FRM WRN WOODS COUNTY OK SWWD ACROSS NWRN ROGER MILLS COUNTY...THEN FROM CENTRAL WHEELER COUNTY TX WSWWD ACROSS ARMSTRONG/SWISHER COUNTY LINE TO CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK TO VICINITY PVW AND S-CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY. ALTHOUGH AREA IS BENEATH THERMAL RIDGE ANALYZED ON 500 MB CHART...ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER APPEARS TO BE OVERCOME IN BUOYANCY PROFILE IN MODIFIED 12Z AMA RAOB. COMBINATION OF MEAN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8 DEG C/KM AND NEARLY SATURATED BASE LAYER BETWEEN 800-850 MB YIELD 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. FORCING APPEARS WEAK WITH LOW-ANGLE ISENTROPIC SLOPING ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES PERSIST MAY PRODUCE HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR USING MOST-UNSTABLE LIFTED LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35759991 35250034 34740101 34370205 34270256 34450290 34660302 35120309 35840267 36790130 37000074 36849970 36459944 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 16:50:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 11:50:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121700.j4CH0CTj031619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121659 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC...AND FAR NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121659Z - 121930Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SRN VA...NC...AND FAR NRN SC. STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MUCH OF SRN VA/NC/NRN SC CONTINUES TO HEAT STRONGLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S/ WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT. DISCUSSION AREA IS SITUATED ON NERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS E-W ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD FROM CENTRAL VA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INITIALLY IN THE LOW 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THIS WILL HELP ESTABLISH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F. SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH STRONGER CORES. MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT AROUND 1500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS /SFC-6KM SHEAR IS NWLY AT 20-30KT/. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SWD OR SEWD MOVING BANDS OF STORMS DURING THEIR EVOLUTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENT FOR INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEPARATE TOWERING CU ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK SEWD. ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..BANACOS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 36747774 36507733 36037707 35557706 34987732 34647765 34567903 34658119 34728271 35008308 35278384 35628319 36078212 36988112 37258054 37317999 36827903 36747828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 17:32:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 12:32:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121741.j4CHfoCG031220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121740 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121740Z - 121915Z SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE POSSIBLE OVER MO VALLEY REGION FROM SERN NEB/SWRN IA ACROSS NERN KS/NWRN MO THROUGH AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM MKC AREA NWWD ACROSS NERN KS -- BETWEEN TOP-FNB -- TO NEAR BIE. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS DIFFUSE BUT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR STJ WNWWD TO NEAR LNK...THEN NWWD TO SFC LOW S ONL. COLD FRONT ARCS FROM LOW SWD BETWEEN CNK-MHK THEN SSWWD NEAR HUT. PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM INTERSECTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- NEAR BIE -- SWD TO MHK THEN SSWWD TO NEAR END. PRIND AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS INITIALLY IS INVOF OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE INTERSECTION THEN SWD ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE AS FRONT CATCHES UP. CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS BETWEEN SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN NEB TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE NEXT FEW HOURS...CREATING ZONE OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY TOWARD SWRN IA WITH TIME. MESOLOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL...FURTHER ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NARROW PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM LNK AREA NWWD TOWARD SFC LOW IS QUITE CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF BRIEF/LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO FROPA. HEATING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE LIMITED BY COMBINATION OF SLOW-ERODING LOW STRATUS...AND HIGH CLOUDS OF ANVIL ORIGIN ADVECTING NEWD FROM POSTFRONTAL/ELEVATED TSTMS OVER KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 39759476 39349498 38759593 39149644 39779665 40919747 41519816 41919748 40689494 40079476 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 18:07:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 13:07:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121817.j4CIHDup026185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121816 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121816Z - 121915Z SEVERE TSTM WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SWRN KS..NE OF WW 257. SFC ANALYSIS AND CLOUD LINE IN VIS IMAGERY INDICATES DECELERATING COLD FRONT WITHIN 30 NM E OF A CNK-SLN-HUT-P28 LINE. MID/UPPER FLOW HAS STRONG COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY. BAND OF TSTMS IS MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD FROM OK/TX PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ALSO...SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AND MOVE NEWD. TSTMS INITIATING ALONG FRONT MAY ATTAIN ORGANIZED MULTICELL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE CELLS/ANVILS MERGE AND ACTIVITY ATTAINS MORE LINEAR CHARACTER WITH SMALL LEWPS/BOWS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT IS HAIL W OF FRONT...WIND AND HAIL ALONG FRONT. BRIEF NON-MESOCYCLONE TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH SFC-BASED FRONTAL TSTMS...BUT MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG INDICATED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPS RISING INTO 80S F AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... 38799717 38279741 37469779 36969856 37000073 39149914 39869864 40069788 39909713 39009725 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 19:13:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 14:13:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505121923.j4CJNd64012404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121922 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...SERN NM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257... VALID 121922Z - 122015Z SEVERE HAIL REMAINS PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND SRN PANHANDLE PORTION WW...HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FAVORING LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING...AND PARTIAL WW REPLACEMENT/UPGRADE OF WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. MEANWHILE...SEVERE TSTM WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FARTHER N ACROSS NRN PANHANDLE INTO NW OK. UP TO 3 INCH HAILSTONES REPORTED WITH STORM OVER HALE COUNTY IN PAST HOUR...AND ADDITIONAL VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM WOODS TO NW BECKHAM COUNTY OK...SWWD ACROSS PVW AREA TO EXTREME NE HOCKLEY COUNTY TX...SRN LAMB COUNTY...TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. DRYLINE INTERSECTS FROM NEAR TX/NM BORDER ATTM AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS LEA COUNTY NM. DRYLINE MAY RETREAT WWD ACROSS ROOSEVELT/LEA COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST W OF FRONT -- WHERE SFC FLOW SHOULD VEER TO MORE ELY COMPONENT AND ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS. PRIND TSTMS OVER HALE COUNTY -- AND ANY FUTURE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT FROM W CDS SWWD TO NEAR NM BORDER -- MAY ROTATE STRONGLY WHILE MOVING ALONG/ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VORTICITY/LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED. MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED IN WARM SECTOR FROM LBB AREA SWD...THOUGH BOTH RUC SOUNDINGS AND JTN PROFILER INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELEVATED MUCAPE 2300 J/KG EVIDENT IN 18Z AMA RAOB...ALONG WITH 50-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ...SUPPORTING CONTINUED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY TSTMS NRN/ERN PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33330174 33310381 36980083 36989871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:05:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:05:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122014.j4CKEme3019760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122013 KSZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... VALID 122013Z - 122145Z SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD THROUGH WW WITH LARGE HAIL REMAINING MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. AREA E OF WW IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW WITH POTENTIAL FOR THREAT TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH EVENING AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NEWD. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN INFLOW SECTOR OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...AND 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE BASED VERY NEAR SFC WITHIN 50-80 NM W OF FRONT. AT 20Z FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM HARPER COUNTY NNEWD AND DRIFTING EWD 10 KT OR LESS. HAIL TO 1.75 INCH REPORTED IN SEDGWICK COUNTY PAST HALF HOUR...AS WELL AS GUSTS 50-55 KT IN MCPHERSON COUNTY.PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD 40-50 KT OUT OF NWRN OK IS EVOLVING INTO BOW ECHO AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AS IT CROSSES RELATIVELY DRY AND DIABATICALLY HEATED SFC AIR MASS JUST BEHIND FRONT. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM PRATT/BARBER COUNTIES NEWD ACROSS HUT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 37029751 37009989 39989888 39969644 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:39:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:39:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122049.j4CKnNeD013552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122048 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NEB...NERN KS...SWRN IA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 122048Z - 122215Z MAINTAIN WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE...EVIDENT AT 2030Z FROM CASS COUNTY NEB SWD THROUGH POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY KS THEN SSWWD INTO WW 258. SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO MAY INCREASE NE OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES OVER STABLE SFC AIR BUT REMAINS IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATTER AREA. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO...AND PRONOUNCED CLEARING N OF BOUNDARY OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA. MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB...RUC SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER WINDS FROM LTH ALL INDICATE GREATLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER REGION ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH AS HIGH AS ABOUT 300 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS AROUND 50 KT. DISCRETE STORMS CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES...OTHERWISE DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. EXPECT AIR MASS WITHIN 20-30 NM N OF BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE DESTABILIZING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY MOVES NWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND REMAINDER NERN KS...AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. MEANWHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED BEHIND INITIAL LINE OVER NEB GIVEN NARROW WINDOW OF ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION BEFORE FROPA. STABLE LAYER WILL DEEPEN WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA...BUT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... 38599658 41409759 41439510 41439590 42289588 42829510 42839419 42529361 41749329 40919362 40509478 41429509 38599416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 20:59:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:59:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122109.j4CL9Ua1027802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122108 TXZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122108Z - 122315Z THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOME MORE EVIDENT...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AT 12/21Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TOWERING CU ALONG AN AXIS FROM 50S LBB TO 20W MAF TO 10SW FST COINCIDENT WITH THE DRYLINE. THERE IS ALSO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MTNS. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING IN THIS REGION MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKEST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN LBB AND MAF AND GRADUALLY INCREASES TO THE SOUTH. AS UPPER LOW CENTER OVER CO/WY LIFTS NEWD...SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30KT. THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DESPITE THIS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8 C/KM/ AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. ..BANACOS.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32140289 33000266 33200254 33210174 33180118 32980102 32320114 31300140 30360177 30150227 30150285 30200340 30460376 31190326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 22:10:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 17:10:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122220.j4CMK18r008237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122218 KSZ000-OKZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... VALID 122218Z - 122315Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 258 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. AS OF 22Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER WOODS COUNTY IN NWRN OK WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING ON SRN FLANK OF BOWING STRUCTURE /CURRENTLY E OF HUT/ SWD INTO SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES. LATEST SHORT TERM RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ALONG SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK AND S-CNTRL/SERN KS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT VWP FROM VANCE AFB AND LAMONT PROFILER INDICATE LARGELY SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL...GRADUALLY VEERING TO SWLY IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND HIGH-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW...LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM STORM SEEDING AND RESULTANT COLD POOL PRODUCTION ALL SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38189773 38049625 37059645 35879739 35779843 36009946 37289876 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 22:58:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 17:58:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122308.j4CN8BwI001067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122307 OKZ000-TXZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS...SRN PNHDL INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260... VALID 122307Z - 130000Z THROUGH 00Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM JUST NE OF PVW TO W OR NW OF CDS. AS OF 2245Z...LBB VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED A TORNADIC SUPERCELL JUST E OF PVW MOVING E AT 15-20 KTS. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS SWWD INTO CNTRL HALE COUNTY...AND THEN NEWD THROUGH NRN FLOYD...SERN BRISCOE AND INTO NWRN HALL COUNTY. MODIFICATION OF CURRENT LBB VWP FOR W TX MESONET SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW REGION OF STORM INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2. THROUGH 00Z...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD OR NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FLOYD/SRN BRISCOE...INTO NRN MOTLEY/SRN HALL COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL STORM FARTHER TO THE S OVER LYNN COUNTY HAS INITIATED ON N-S BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER SRN HALE COUNTY SWD INTO WRN LYNN COUNTY. THOUGH THIS STORM WILL ALSO REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /PER JAYTON PROFILER AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS/ SUGGEST THAT VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS STORM. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34450296 35539938 33939939 32870294 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 12 23:29:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 18:29:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505122339.j4CNdMKS018039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122337 MOZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 122337Z - 130100Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA FROM NEAR STJ SWD THROUGH TOP AND EVENTUALLY THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AS OF 2322Z...PLEASANT HILL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED EVOLVING LINE SEGMENT/LEWP STRUCTURE FROM ANDREW/BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN NWRN MO SWWD SHAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES IN NERN KS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS EVOLVING NEAR A SURFACE LOW WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES EWD INTO WRN MO WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BOUNDARY-LAYER IS COMPARATIVELY WARMER /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF I-70/ SUGGESTING AN INCREASED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OWING TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER. STRONG REAR INFLOW JET EVIDENT IN PLEASANT HILL BASE VELOCITY DATA OVER WABAUNSEE...SHAWNEE..OSAGE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTIES MAY PROMOTE A FURTHER EWD ACCELERATION OF THIS PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE APPROACHING THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 01Z. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY WELL CONTINUE E OF CURRENT WW...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... 39919472 40299459 40439365 39689268 38819273 38539313 38569396 38689445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 00:47:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 19:47:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130057.j4D0vUDr029097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130056 OKZ000-TXZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260... VALID 130056Z - 130200Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS OF 0040Z...LBB RADAR DATA SHOW SEVERAL SUPERCELLS IN PROGRESS FROM NEAR EVW ENEWD TO W OF CDS AS WELL AS TO THE E OF LBB OVER CROSBY COUNTY. LBB VWP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 WHEN MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS. GIVEN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1 KM AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OWING TO INCREASED COLD POOL PRODUCTION/OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AS WELL AS INCREASING CAP AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34660227 35549937 33909938 33050239 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 01:17:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 20:17:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130127.j4D1RDbT013558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130126 MOZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 130126Z - 130200Z THOUGH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST BEYOND 02Z...TORNADO WATCH 259 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. TRAILING COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH QUASI-LINEAR MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN MO HAS PUSHED S OF REMAINING PORTION OF WW AREA. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED TSTMS N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE WW TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... 39189676 39759449 38619416 38599660 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 02:27:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 21:27:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130236.j4D2aohT019438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130235 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... VALID 130235Z - 130400Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. AS OF 0220Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS N OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KIOWA COUNTY IN S-CNTRL KS NEWD THROUGH RENO AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES IN CNTRL KS. AN ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM WAS LOCATED OVER DONLEY COUNTY IN THE TX PNHDL. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG NOSE OF BROAD SLY LLJ...AND VERY NEAR 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ RESIDES N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE TX PNHDL...DECREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG NEAR ONGOING STORMS OVER CNTRL KS. THROUGH 04Z...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEWD INTO CNTRL KS. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 38559844 38539532 34839910 34860207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 02:52:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 21:52:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130301.j4D31f0K000620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130300 MOZ000-ILZ000-130430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO POTENTIALLY INTO W-CNTRL/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262... VALID 130300Z - 130430Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MO...POTENTIALLY SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND SWRN IL OVERNIGHT. AS OF 0250Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS COLD POOL OVER RANDOLPH...HOWARD AND COOPER COUNTIES IN MO. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT INTERACTION OF COLD POOL WITH WRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM N OF COU THROUGH STL INTO SRN IL /S OF MVN/ MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION. THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD AWAY FROM STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 262 IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38309294 39479280 40349267 40289193 39689065 38709046 37969090 37899221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 03:40:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 May 2005 22:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130350.j4D3o2Ux025992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130348 OKZ000-TXZ000-130445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130348Z - 130445Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH 05-06Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0333Z...FREDRICK OK RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CIRCULATION/VORTICITY CENTER OVER BECKHAM COUNTY WITH TRAILING TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL FROM HARMON COUNTY WSWWD INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE SUSTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER SWRN OK WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM FREDRICK OK REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK STORM-RELATIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH ALREADY ORGANIZING COLD POOL SHOULD PROMOTE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..MEAD.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 34589915 35139864 35319811 35259754 34729708 34009741 33899864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 05:55:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 00:55:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130605.j4D65M2M025430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130604 OKZ000-130730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265... VALID 130604Z - 130730Z ...INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WITH BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKLAHOMA CITY /TWIN LAKES/ RADAR SHOWS BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM BLAINE TO CADDO COUNTIES...AND A SECONDARY BOW WHICH IS PASSING OVER KIOWA/TILLMAN AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN SW OK. SO FAR...NUMEROUS MEASURED WINDS OF 50-60 MPH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH AT CLINTON OK JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUST FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH HINTON/FORT COBB/ALTUS...SO THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WIND IS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WIND PROFILER DATA FROM PURCELL/LAMONT AND OKC RADAR SUGGEST 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 0-1KM...SO CERTAINLY STRONG TSTM WIND GUSTS ARE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO OUTRUN INITIAL BOW ECHO IN CADDO CO...IT APPEARS THIS MCS HAS BECOME ORGANIZED AND WILL AFFECT CNTRL PORTIONS OF OK...INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA...WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34229824 34259862 35089876 35889836 36419797 36479740 36219724 35689722 35009745 34469761 34189780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 06:03:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 01:03:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130613.j4D6DRWx028850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130612 OKZ000-TXZ000-130715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX PANHANDLE/NW TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 263... VALID 130612Z - 130715Z ...NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE TX PANHANDLE/NW TX SHORTLY... SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR OVER THE PANHANDLE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ELEVATED CORES AND STORM RELATIVE VELOCITY DATA ALSO SHOW ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..TAYLOR.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... 34119970 33550132 33880195 34320181 34520082 34640013 34579966 34439958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 09:00:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 04:00:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505130909.j4D99p4V006542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130904 OKZ000-TXZ000-131000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265... VALID 130904Z - 131000Z SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 265. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13/10Z. ARCING / SUB-SEVERE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED E OF WW...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION NOW OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW. STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS REMAIN W OF WW OVER WRN N TX / WITHIN WW 266...AND MAY MOVE INTO WW 265 IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NONETHELESS...STORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ABOVE SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS SRN OK. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY ALLOW WW 265 TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34559955 34809831 34689750 34169768 34159960  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 17:12:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 12:12:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131721.j4DHLmsS026679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131720 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-131845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / NRN IN / SWRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131720Z - 131845Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER NRN IL / NRN IN...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SWD INTO WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z. MEAN SFC TO 6 KM FLOW AROUND 40 KTS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED ONCE THEY GET MORE THAN ABOUT 50 MILES N OF WARM FRONT. ..JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42688774 43368647 43328529 42888478 42228477 41018552 40588614 40278728 40068988 41138941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 17:33:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 12:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131742.j4DHgilR008306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131741 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN INTO NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131741Z - 131945Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...DESPITE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33559137 35249063 37728905 39488662 38688467 35128821 33478916 33069048 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 18:43:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 13:43:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131853.j4DIrZiT021769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131852 TXZ000-OKZ000-132015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131852Z - 132015Z TORNADO WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN AN HOUR. TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED BY 21Z FROM CDS AREA WWD TO INVOF CAPROCK. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE RAPIDLY INTO SUPERCELL CHARACTER WITH VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL LIKELY. DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...REINFORCED LOCALLY BY STORM-SCALE AND/OR MESOBETA SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. SFC MESOANALYSIS -- INCLUDING W TX AND OK MESONET DATA -- INDICATES PRONOUNCED MESOLOW CENTRAL/NERN FLOYD COUNTY AT 18Z. ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO IS EVIDENT IN CU PATHS ON ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY. DRYLINE EXTENDS DUE S THROUGH BORDEN COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLIGHTLY EWD TOWARD W EDGE OF DEEPER CU FIELD -- NOW EVIDENT FROM SRN BRISCOE/MOTLEY COUNTIES SWD THROUGH COKE COUNTY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ALONG EDGE OF SLOWLY ERODING LOW CLOUD DECK -- CURVES FROM MAJOR COUNTY OK SWWD ACROSS HARMON COUNTY...THEN OVER TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SRN DONLEY TO OCHILTREE COUNTY TX. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AND LIFTING NWD THROUGH CDS AREA..SOON TO MERGE WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN MOST PRONOUNCED FROM JUST NE-E OF MESOLOW EWD INTO EXTREME SWRN OK...COINCIDENT WITH SFC MOIST AXIS CONTAINING MID/UPPER 60S F DEW POINTS. THESE FACTORS COMBINE WITH DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- EVIDENT IN 18Z AMA RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- TO YIELD 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING CINH. CONVERGENCE MAX W CDS INDICATES REGION FROM CDS TOWARD PALO DURO CANYON SWD TO MESOLOW IS MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOONEST INITIATION...THOUGH OTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EWD OR NWD ALONG OUTFLOW/HEATING BOUNDARIES INTO SW OK AND ERN TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE SOME MINOR WEAKNESSES EVIDENT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW...100-150 0-1 KM SRH AND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ENHANCED HAIL GENERATION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 33710105 34180114 35250136 35770132 36160089 36070056 35800040 35250044 34910002 34759946 34479896 34049888 33669929 33379996 33270099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 19:05:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 14:05:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131914.j4DJEoXW003890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131913 TXZ000-132115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131913Z - 132115Z RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CB EVIDENT ALONG SFC DRYLINE FROM IT INTERSECTION WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NERN BREWSTER COUNTY...NEWD ACROSS ERN PECOS COUNTY. OTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER S THROUGH BIG BEND AREA AND NEWD ALONG DRYLINE TO W SJT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 25-30 DEG F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH BASED -- WITH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF ANY STRONG-SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS GENERATE ALOFT. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SMALL HODOGRAPHS...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER ZONE OF WEAK FLOW IN 450-250 MB LAYER -- INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE...TRENDING TOWARD OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DOES NOT GET UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW/COLD POOLS AND SURVIVES INTO 23-02Z TIME FRAME MAY ACCESS DEEPER/RICHER MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ATTM FARTHER E. VIS IMAGERY AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE W EDGE OF THIS LAYER FROM NEAR JCT TO APPROXIMATELY 40 WNW DRT...NEAR ERN SLOPES OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE. SELY ADVECTION MAY SHIFT THIS PLUME NWWD UP RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD TERRELL COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29020339 29140356 29180366 29260376 29470377 30010382 30230372 30370373 30490363 30520323 30530265 30660229 31360122 31410092 31170077 30750066 30470087 30020122 29600125 29600129 29690135 29810144 29800156 29770161 29780171 29800180 29820196 29830199 29810205 29820213 29840221 29870227 29840235 29770236 29770251 29740264 29650268 29620275 29480278 29370286 29330290 29260288 29230287 29160297 29080303 28990310 28970318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 19:19:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 14:19:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131929.j4DJTLM3014299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131928 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OH / SERN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131928Z - 132030Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SERN MI INTO NWRN OH. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE AREAS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MESOCYCLONE FORMATION WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE TOO FAR N OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ELEVATED. ..JEWELL.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 38998525 39938263 43098194 42928422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 13 19:32:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 May 2005 14:32:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505131942.j4DJg9iB022703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131941 ILZ000-MOZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...I-44 CORRIDOR OF SWRN TO ERN MO...PORTIONS SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131941Z - 132145Z GRADUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON INVOF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ANALYZED JUST N I-44 FROM NERN OK THROUGH JLN/STL AREAS INTO SWRN IL. STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZATION OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT ATTM BOTH IN SFC ANALYSIS AND LOW CLOUD TRENDS FROM VIS IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK...THIS AREA HAS DEEPEST CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND LARGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROBABILITIES NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH CINH UNDER 50 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH KINEMATICS/BOUNDARY GEOMETRY INDICATES MORE LINEAR EVOLUTION WITH BOW/LEWP FEATURES EMBEDDED. DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH MEAN FLOW ALIGNED PARALLEL TO BAROCLINIC ZONE...BASED ON SRN MO PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC WINDS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... 37349446 38509225 39419016 39368977 39118937 38808959 37599179 36639416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 00:16:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 May 2005 19:16:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505150025.j4F0PR8t011253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150024 TXZ000-NMZ000-150200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX / SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... VALID 150024Z - 150200Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW...BUT A FEW STORMS WERE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATCH INTO ERN NM. IN BETWEEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD STILL PRESENT EXCEPT OVER FAR WRN TX NEAR EPZ. WHILE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS IS LEAST BETWEEN MAF AND EPZ...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NEARBY STORMS. 00Z MAF SOUNDING SHOWS NO INHIBITION USING MIXED LAYER PARCEL AND IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL...SUGGESTING THIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29200065 30080009 31030072 32020182 32540250 33400351 34570511 34340554 32820563 31440598 30540487 29730458 28930318 29760255 29840195 29740143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 17:04:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 12:04:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505151713.j4FHDV1V025825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151712 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-151845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SC...CENTRAL/ERN NC...SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151712Z - 151845Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PIEDMONT REGION OF CAROLINAS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND MOVE/EXPAND NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER ERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION...PERHAPS AS FAR NE AS SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA AROUND HAMPTON ROADS. WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD BAND WITH SMALL POCKETS OF CLEARING -- APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WIDE -- EXTENDING SW-NE OVER APPALACHIANS AND WRN PIEDMONT FROM GA THROUGH CAROLINAS...THEN NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND DELMARVA. WHILE SOME SFC HEATING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER UNDER THIS BAND...MORE IMMEDIATE POTENTIAL EXISTS INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON ITS E EDGE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG THE LINE MCN...AGS...RDU...AKQ. AIR MASS THERE AND EWD IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO 80S F...DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S...MLCAPE RISING PAST 1000 J/KG...AND LITTLE OR NO CINH. BECAUSE OF NEARLY HOMOGENEOUS SWLY SFC WIND DIRECTION...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS VERY WEAK EXCEPT FOR SOLENOIDAL LIFT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. HOWEVER TSTMS ALSO MAY INITIATE IN HORIZONTAL ROLLS OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS E. WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN VERTICAL AS WELL...MINIMIZING HODOGRAPH SIZE AND INDICATING PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM MULTICELLULAR TO LINE SEGMENTS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20 DEG F INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED OR ACCELERATED THROUGH SUBCLOUD LAYER TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 33378197 33888197 34938090 36217900 36827758 37237640 37047636 36967622 36937601 36507599 36217587 35847578 35437621 35127668 34597726 34337768 33917793 33907839 33657891 33348015 33118155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 17:05:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 12:05:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505151715.j4FHF9DF026626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151714 TXZ000-151915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX / HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151714Z - 151915Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY. STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ON STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON SWRN FLANK INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S FROM SAT INTO DRT AND MINOR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WELL ESTABLISHED 2KM DEEP COLD POOL PER AREA VWPS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY. GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS...STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITHIN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF... 29810236 30040187 30090145 30240007 30089969 29349845 28479919 28420032 29140073 29420106 29740145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 17:15:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 12:15:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505151725.j4FHPKvT032378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151724 TXZ000-151930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX / HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151724Z - 151930Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY. STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ON STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON SWRN FLANK INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S FROM SAT INTO DRT AND MINOR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WELL ESTABLISHED 2KM DEEP COLD POOL PER AREA VWPS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY. GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS...STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITHIN SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF... 29810236 30040187 30090145 30240007 30089969 29349845 28479919 28420032 29140073 29420106 29740145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 20:11:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 15:11:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505152022.j4FKMRgK000840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152021 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NC...SERN VA...CENTRAL/ERN SC...EXTREME E-CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279... VALID 152021Z - 152145Z SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN SC/NC E OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. PEAK HEATING PERIOD FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS TO MAINTAIN BOTH WIND AND HAIL THREAT AT SFC. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS OVER PORTIONS SERN VA ARE IN A BROKEN BAND FROM CHARLES CITY AREA SWWD TO NEAR DAN. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NRN PORTIONS WW OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER SFC TEMPS BUT STILL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG AD LOWER LCL THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER SE. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK BECAUSE OF SMALL DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH HEIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENHANCED BY BAY/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND TSTM OUTFLOWS ON A LOCAL SCALE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32758140 34488239 37757543 36037442 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 20:42:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 15:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505152053.j4FKrKAp018559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152052 NMZ000-TXZ000-152215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN NM / FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152052Z - 152215Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NM WITH 25-30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW BEING REPORTED BY AREA PROFILERS AND VADS. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. CAP IS HOLDING OVER FAR ERN / SERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BEST COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE FROM SAN MIGUEL COUNTY SWD TOWARD EPZ...WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 35 KTS AND MODERATE CAPE. BUNKERS STORM MOTION ESTIMATES FROM EPZ TCU PROFILER AS WELL AS FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SWD MOTIONS FOR RIGHT MOVERS...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT STORM MOTIONS OVER SAN MIGUEL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING...THE AIR MASS S AND E OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...ALLOWING FOR MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN AND SERN NM WHERE IT IS CAPPED AS OF 20Z. ..JEWELL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31780770 32560746 33640690 34840609 35430551 35450401 34590351 33250336 32450372 32000474 31400595 31770656 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 15 23:48:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 18:48:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505152359.j4FNxW9b003634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152358 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-160100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279... VALID 152358Z - 160100Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO. WW 279 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z..BUT TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE WITH TIME...AND THEREFORE ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NERN NC SWWD THROUGH ERN SC. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE SHOWED A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY INTERCEPTED THE SEA BREEZE...BUT RECENT TRENDS SHOW AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG EXIST EAST OF THE LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE...TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33327974 32828129 33238176 33668093 33997994 35907804 36727753 37547567 37257516 36237456 35757508 34987689 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 00:37:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 May 2005 19:37:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505160048.j4G0mTht025472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160047 TXZ000-NMZ000-160145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279... VALID 160047Z - 160145Z 00Z EPZ SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH LARGE AMOUNT OF DCAPE SUGGESTING SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE WEAK WINDS ALOFT. ENVIRONMENT FARTHER E HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. GIVEN FAST FORWARD SPEED OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT HAS FORMED...EXPECT WIND THREAT TO TRANSLATE SEWD INTO SRN AND SERN AREAS OF WW. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30620420 30630744 32290709 32910617 33250535 33840454 34780422 34750321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 18:20:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 13:20:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505161830.j4GIUpq6009607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161829 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-162100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEVADA..NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161829Z - 162100Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER PARTS OF THE GRT BASIN. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SATELLITE AND VWP DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW EWD ADVANCE...AND AMPLIFICATION...OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN CA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR BOI SSW TO NEAR TPH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING E AT 25-30 KTS AS UPPER SYSTEM ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ATTM OVER CNTRL NV. THIS FEATURE IS CENTERED NEAR INTERSECTION OF MAIN COLD FRONT WITH A SHALLOWER...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ENE TO NEAR SLC. THE LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NRN UT OR FAR SRN ID. FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF NV COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. THESE FACTORS...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY BACK AND BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WITH 500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS. AS A RESULT...SETUP MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 42531567 41251656 39741665 38461635 39021440 39731311 40801173 43031169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 21:02:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 16:02:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505162113.j4GLD8lH000487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162111 KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD / WRN NEB / NWRN KS / EXTREME NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162111Z - 162315Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELDS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO NERN CO / NWRN KS. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING E OF DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE...CONTINUED HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AREA WIND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE SLY SURFACE FLOW...PRODUCING HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS. DEEPLY MIXED AND LOW RH BOUNDARY LAYERS INDICATE STRONG EVAPORATION POTENTIAL WITH LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO INGEST HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41620315 43190362 44270435 44820450 44920398 44320172 43680104 42500021 41030031 40160021 39289993 38810079 38770202 39980257 40720274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 21:38:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 16:38:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505162149.j4GLnaqX026354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162147 WYZ000-IDZ000-162315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID THROUGH WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162147Z - 162315Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN ID NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MIN. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ID SWD THROUGH ERN NV. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER SERN ID ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH SERN ID THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...MSO... 42111047 42381371 44331315 44421078 43291010 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 16 23:51:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 18:51:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505170001.j4H01ldp009797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170000 UTZ000-NVZ000-170130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281... VALID 170000Z - 170130Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH LINE OF FORCED STORMS THOUGH SWRN...CNTRL AND PARTS OF NRN UT NEXT FEW HOURS. NRN PART OF THE LINE WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 281 AND INTO SWRN WY BY 0130Z...BUT A NEW WW EAST OF 281 IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FORCED LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST E OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA SWWD TO W OF MILFORD. THE NRN PART OF THE LINE HAS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND CONTINUES EAST AT AROUND 35-40 KT WHILE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER SWRN UT. STRONG FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE COLD POOL...COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN STORMS INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SPREADS FROM 35-40F AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF... 38081408 40201288 41611264 41891137 38751117 38091234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 01:29:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 20:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505170140.j4H1efxs001115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170139 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-170245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID THROUGH EXTREME WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... VALID 170139Z - 170245Z LINE OF STORMS OVER SERN ID WILL CROSS INTO WRN WY BY 02Z. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. WW 282 MIGHT BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z. A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES EAST OVER SERN ID. INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE AND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE FALL COUPLET WILL MAINTAIN STRONG FORCING FOR THE LINE TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AND TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS FARTHER SW. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 42051138 43301132 43961148 44081074 43881022 42841023 42031066 41931113 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 15:01:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 10:01:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505171512.j4HFCfBs011534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171510 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171510 SCZ000-GAZ000-171745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171510Z - 171745Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SERN GA. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS. PARTS OF THE REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM AND DIURNAL HEATING WERE CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN SC LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK INHIBITION AND FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD AID STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN 15-20KT MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WILL ALL LEND SUPPORT FOR A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31478108 31008176 30828360 31208439 31388447 31858428 32338386 32808298 33488216 34278164 34628118 34688066 34667986 33807879 33187907 32527994 32048069 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 17:44:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 12:44:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505171754.j4HHsvKe013823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171753 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT....WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171753Z - 172000Z THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ONE INTENSE SUPERCELL WAS ALREADY TRACKING NWD THROUGH PHILLIPS COUNTY MT WITHIN LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM NRN/CNTRL WY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WARMING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NEAR SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. RESULTING CONVECTION WILL BE SITUATED IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TOPPED BY 50-60KT SLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS. INITIAL STORMS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTIC WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44990448 45790632 46550742 48400763 48870715 48930394 48670184 45430007 43670002 43260213 44620397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 18:20:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 13:20:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505171830.j4HIUpRP010110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171829 NEZ000-SDZ000-172030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171829Z - 172030Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM INITIATION ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL SD TO WRN NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST LBF SOUNDING SUGGESTS STRONG CAP IS HOLDING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT RAPID WARMING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FROM NWRN KS ACROSS WRN NEB. WHEN THE LBF SOUNDINGS IS ADJUSTED WITH THIS WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IT APPEARS THAT REMAINING INHIBITION COULD BE ELIMINATED THROUGH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL QPF FROM THE RUC/NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL WRF. THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND BUILD FROM NNW TO SSE ACROSS SWRN SD INTO NEB IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE GIVEN LINEAR FORCING ON THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30KT WILL SUPPORT CELL/UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND SOME CHANCE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 43200211 43629999 42069889 40069827 40080188 41220199 43070222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 22:19:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 17:19:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505172229.j4HMTx83008754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172229 NEZ000-SDZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SD THROUGH NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283... VALID 172229Z - 172300Z WW 283 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO SD...NB AND SWD TO THE KS BORDER. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40159954 41200067 43050074 44420215 45770104 44979928 40559779 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 17 23:10:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 18:10:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505172321.j4HNLfNr004935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172320 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-180045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND THROUGH NW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... VALID 172320Z - 180045Z THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES FROM ERN MT THROUGH SWRN ND INTO NWRN SD...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 284 MIGHT BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SERN MT INTO NWRN SD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN MT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN SD WITH AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY FROM NERN MT NWWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM ERN MT SEWD THROUGH WRN ND AND NWRN SD IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH WY WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO ND WITHIN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS S OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT... DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. GIVEN ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CHARACTER OF THE ONGOING STORMS...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45410377 46830534 48750620 49000399 48380309 46580239 45390253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 01:09:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 20:09:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505180120.j4I1K4Iv004463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180119 SDZ000-NEZ000-180315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SD THROUGH CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 180119Z - 180315Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST THROUGH SD AND NEB. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEB PORTION OF THE LINE. PORTION OF LINE NOW OVER SRN SD WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF WW 285 BY 02Z...BUT ANOTHER WW EAST OF SD PORTION OF 285 IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NWRN SD SEWD INTO S CNTRL SD THEN SWD INTO EXTREME S CNTRL NEB NEAR THE KS BORDER. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT AND IS PASSING THROUGH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. FARTHER EAST...THE 00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWS PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND MODEST CAPE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT AND SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEB. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE LINE BEGINS MOVING EAST OF THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40439928 42949894 43899950 45370088 45670048 45199893 44209739 42729705 40329836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 03:30:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 22:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505180341.j4I3fShM022937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180340 KSZ000-NEZ000-180445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 180340Z - 180445Z SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE FROM ERN SD THROUGH ERN NEB AND INTO N CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY RAIN FROM N CNTRL KS NEWD INTO S CNTRL NEB...BUT SOME HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW 285 WILL EXPIRE AT 05Z AND ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF SQUALL LINE FROM NERN NEB THROUGH SD HAS UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND AS THE LEADING GUST FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INTO A MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER SW...SOME BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE S CNTRL NEB PORTION OF THE LINE WHERE STRONG LIFT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SLY 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ALONG THIS PART OF THE LINE HAVE BECOME ORIENTED SW-NE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MID-UPPER FLOW. THIS SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..DIAL.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889935 40729859 41629755 40049725 39059978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 05:48:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 00:48:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505180558.j4I5wtVt019785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180558 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB AND WEST CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180558Z - 180700Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL IA THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW. SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS...LOCATED ABOUT 30 E OF OLU...ARE MOVING NEWD AT 35-40 KT. STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG SURFACE FRONT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL WAVE AS STRONGER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WING TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL LIFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 700-850 MB IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER NEWD AWAY FROM STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL JET SLOWLY WEAKENS. ..IMY.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41299657 41539696 42129707 42529670 42529608 42099568 41909555 41519556 41339599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 17:12:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 12:12:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181723.j4IHNFmE010804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181722 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-181945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/SD...SWRN MN...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181722Z - 181945Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PARTS OF ND AND SD...AS WELL AS SRN MN...AND PERHAPS NRN IA...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WARMING AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM NWRN IA INTO WRN MN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR EXTENDING FROM THE WRN MN BORDER NWD TO THE RED RIVER VLY. LIFT WITHIN THIS ZONE...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO SRN MN SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HIGH-BASED/POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD/SERN ND AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL SPREADS EAST ACROSS THIS REGION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIMITATIONS TO OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF GREATER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NARROW WARM SECTOR FROM SERN ND INTO SWRN MN COULD PROMOTE MORE INTENSE CELLS. GIVEN SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A GREATER THREAT OF HAIL/WIND AND A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 42339403 43209641 44419678 45499790 46889816 47139621 46709414 43919263 42939300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 18:19:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 13:19:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181830.j4IIUKK8027721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181829 VAZ000-NCZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181829Z - 182030Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SEWD THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCH. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/EVOLVE ALONG LEE OF APPALACHIANS WITH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WARMING WELL THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 70S AT 18Z AMIDST GENEROUS INSOLATION. MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE CINH NOW EXISTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 750-1250 J/KG SBCAPE. REGION REMAINS ON PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL W/NW FLOW...THUS 30-35 KTS /RELATIVELY HIGHER ACROSS VA/ WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS MID/LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... 38137937 38037762 37507694 35837737 35597899 36028057 36398051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 18:40:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 13:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181851.j4IIp6sb008937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181850 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181850 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181850Z - 182045Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHERN OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM MHK-P28-GAG. SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE RETARDED DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY WEST OF BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS INTO THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THESE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK CAP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION WILL OCCUR NEAR SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEAR P28. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36979915 38169758 39319661 39259527 38759448 37919462 36169634 35849725 35759845 36209914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 19:32:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 14:32:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505181943.j4IJhJGC014154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181942 FLZ000-GAZ000-182145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PENINSULA/ERN PANHANDLE OF FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181942Z - 182145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PENINSULA/ERN PANHANDLE OF FL THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN FL PENINSULA ATTM...WITH TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS BISECTING NRN FL...UPPER COOL POCKET -- AROUND -12 C AT 500 MB PER 12Z TBW/TLH/JAX AND 15Z XMR RAOBS -- IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE REMAINS MARGINAL AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...GREATER SHEAR PROFILES EXIST PROGRESSIVELY SWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL OWING TO BOTH STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. AS TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE WATCH. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29848209 29668208 29158169 25948056 25598108 27278224 28248239 29088266 30228370 30288471 30768467 30898247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 23:22:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 18:22:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505182333.j4INXaq3015231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182332 KSZ000-NEZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL KS...N CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 182332Z - 190130Z STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NWRN MO INTO NERN KS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS KS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES JUST BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING FURTHER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS 25-30 KT ACROSS OK INTO SERN KS WHILE UPPER FLOW IS NWLY AT 45-55 KT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN CURRENT DATA...STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP SWWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. GIVEN WLY TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WOULD ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF LINE/BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD... 39889935 40729859 41629755 40049725 39059978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 18 23:40:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 18:40:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505182351.j4INpSSt022606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182350 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 182350Z - 190045Z WW 286 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH REMAINDER OF EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHORT TERM ACROSS SE ND/WRN MN. CURRENT REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN STEVENS/SWIFT COUNTIES MINNESOTA APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITH POTENTIAL STRETCHING INVOF SFC OCCLUSION/REGION OF 100-125 J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE. WHILE SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG OCCLUSION ACROSS FAR WRN MN OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLD GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46709772 47179517 43369408 43239491 44129488 44239555 44689563 44669633 45959685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 00:46:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 19:46:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505190056.j4J0uiPq019904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190055 COR MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL KS...N CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 190055Z - 190130Z CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC STRONG STORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NWRN MO INTO NERN KS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS KS...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES JUST BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING FURTHER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS 25-30 KT ACROSS OK INTO SERN KS WHILE UPPER FLOW IS NWLY AT 45-55 KT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN CURRENT DATA...STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP SWWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. GIVEN WLY TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WOULD ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF LINE/BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35959813 35939958 37259865 39349704 39309393 37169562 35959662 35969753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 01:54:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 20:54:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505190204.j4J24pC6017871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190204 KSZ000-OKZ000-190300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND S CENTRAL KS INTO NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 190204Z - 190300Z STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS NERN KS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS KS... TO NEAR 2500 J/KG OVER WRN OK. THE STORMS HAVE MOSTLY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND HAIL PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN OK. WE WILL BE COORDINATING TO REPLACE WW287 WITH A NEW WATCH THAT WILL BE ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN KS WSWWD INTO N CENTRAL OK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35959961 36349935 37099872 37649765 38489644 38939537 38849480 38339465 37159512 36479562 36039625 35939663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 11:49:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 06:49:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191159.j4JBxbKn007610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191158 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IL AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191158Z - 191330Z ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH ONGOING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO W-CENTRAL/SWRN IND. BROADER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. AT 1145Z...SOME INCREASE IN CELL INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR SRN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MIGRATING EWD AT 35KT ACROSS S-CENTRAL IL. CURRENT MOTION BRINGS MOST INTENSE STORMS TO THE IL/IND BORDER NEAR HUF AT 19/14Z. STORMS ARE PRESENTLY ELEVATED ABOVE COOL MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER. INFLOW IS FROM THE SW...WHERE ST. LOUIS VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AND A 30-35KT LOW-LEVEL JET. MUCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA...WITH MODERATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH GREATER THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE CELLS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM CURRENT ELEVATED T-STORMS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SUCH ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN MO...SRN IL...INTO SWRN IND. ..BANACOS.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39349037 39838976 39978885 39848785 39548720 39128686 38558670 38218698 37918736 37758797 37688833 37658883 37718942 37848981 38119017 38419046 38819056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 15:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 10:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191545.j4JFjgBF005677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191544 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/IL/IND...NRN AR...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191544Z - 191815Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN/SERN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD TO SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC HEATING EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES INHIBITION. FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE NEAR/ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN AR/SRN MO...NEWD TO SCNTRL IL. THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER SERN IL AND THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS SRN OH. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FURTHER SERVE TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY HIGH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS MID LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY ACROSS IA/NRN IL...SPREADS SEWD TOWARD THE MO BOOTHEEL AND LWR OH VLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AS WELL AS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND SHEAR...A WATCH OR WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 38259102 39008903 39938481 38688419 36778578 36798817 36548932 35759424 37219367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 17:32:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 12:32:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191742.j4JHgfrr017594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191741 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-191945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191741Z - 191945Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL. WW MAY BE NEEDED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW JUST EAST OF MSP...WITH SERIES OF BOUNDARIES ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/WI INTO LOW. ONE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FRM TO ALO...THEN CURVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WI. AN INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SOON. AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F AND MLCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHERN IL. THESE FACTORS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..HART.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42349126 43518960 43388836 42558784 41608790 41048886 40899005 40869123 41539181 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 18:05:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 13:05:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191816.j4JIGdWk005865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191815 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...OH...ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191815Z - 192015Z SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN IND...NERN KY AND SRN OH. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. PERSISTENT UPDRAFT ACROSS PARKE COUNTY IN WCNTRL IND HAS BEEN ANCHORED ALONG STRONG WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA AS INDICATED ON 18Z ILX RAOB...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SEWD PROPAGATION OF CELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY FURTHER SUPPORT STORM ROTATION/PERSISTENCE. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ON AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NERN KY AND SWRN OH. WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY...DIURNAL TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE AREA ON AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT... 38238284 38598514 38648739 39388746 39788742 40638742 40208546 39898334 39388231 38538255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 18:34:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 13:34:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505191845.j4JIj2HL025761@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191844 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-192015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC INTO NE GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191844Z - 192015Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND SPREAD E/SE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT REGION OF VA/NC/SC...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED. VIS IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/SE INVOF OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN LEE OF APPALACHIANS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT CORRIDOR. WITH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAVING ALREADY WARMED IN THE LOWER 80S...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. RUC POINT SOUNDINGS/LOCAL VADS SUGGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS VA...DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KTS INTO NC/SC. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECTED LIMITED ORGANIZATION/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... 37647986 37257814 34847917 33348133 33288284 34488323 35058249 36168085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:16:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:16:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192027.j4JKRF1V031220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 INZ000-KYZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291... VALID 192026Z - 192200Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN INDIANA REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CONTINUING TO TRACK ESEWD ALONG STRONG WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE INCREASED FROM MARTIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES TO BROWN COUNTY. CELL MERGERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS BROWN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES SHORTLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD INTO BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY. THIS VIGOROUS CONVECTION...OCCURRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 38738503 38778740 39718736 40048603 39958504 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:26:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192037.j4JKbBm1005975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192036 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN IL...SERN MO...NERN AR...EXTREME WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 192036Z - 192200Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN WATCH 288 OVER THE PAST HOUR. MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM ECNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN MO. INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE WAS VERY STRONG AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40508756 38368757 35379099 37439105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:28:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:28:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192039.j4JKdT5V008175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 INZ000-KYZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291... VALID 192026Z - 192200Z ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN INDIANA REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CONTINUING TO TRACK ESEWD ALONG STRONG WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE INCREASED FROM MARTIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES TO BROWN COUNTY. CELL MERGERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS BROWN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES SHORTLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD INTO BARTHOLOMEW COUNTY. THIS VIGOROUS CONVECTION...OCCURRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 38738503 38778740 39718736 40048603 39958504  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:31:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:31:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192042.j4JKg7Bv009701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192041 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 192041Z - 192145Z STORM CLUSTERS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 289 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38468720 38158336 35248576 35498984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:41:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:41:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192051.j4JKptKi015547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192050 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-192215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290... VALID 192050Z - 192215Z WW 290 CONTINUES ACROSS FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/FAR SRN WI UNTIL 02Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WATCH INTO NRN IN. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO ALSO PERSIST ACROSS SRN WI NORTH OF WW 290. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 290 IN SHORT TERM...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING AS PRIMARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVES SEWD ALONG I-88 CORRIDOR. FURTHER EAST...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER PAST HALF HOUR FEATURE DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH ONGOING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NW IND...WHERE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO WORKING NEWD 1) AHEAD OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AND 2) AROUND PERIPHERY OF CNTRL IND ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN DESTABILIZATION/INCREASING DYNAMIC ASCENT AND/OR POTENTIAL FOR NRN IL TSTMS TO PROPAGATE INTO NRN IN. ACROSS SRN WI...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG FRONTAL OCCLUSION. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...ENHANCED STRETCHING INVOF FRONTAL OCCLUSION/REGION OF 100 J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD THREAT FOR ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41969203 42309085 42539015 43139031 43709070 43978963 43918879 43278833 42838781 41898760 41528586 40278589 40538691 40469043 40289188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:46:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:46:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192056.j4JKuwee019411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192036 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN IL...SERN MO...NERN AR...EXTREME WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 192036Z - 192200Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN WATCH 288 OVER THE PAST HOUR. MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM ECNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN MO. INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE WAS VERY STRONG AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40508756 38368757 35379099 37439105  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 20:53:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 15:53:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192103.j4JL3kxv024159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192041 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289... VALID 192041Z - 192145Z STORM CLUSTERS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 289 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38468720 38158336 35248576 35498984  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 21:04:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 16:04:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192115.j4JLFVWm032462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192050 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-192215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI INTO NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290... VALID 192050Z - 192215Z WW 290 CONTINUES ACROSS FAR ERN IA/NRN IL/FAR SRN WI UNTIL 02Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WATCH INTO NRN IN. ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO ALSO PERSIST ACROSS SRN WI NORTH OF WW 290. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 290 IN SHORT TERM...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING AS PRIMARY CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVES SEWD ALONG I-88 CORRIDOR. FURTHER EAST...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER PAST HALF HOUR FEATURE DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH ONGOING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NW IND...WHERE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO WORKING NEWD 1) AHEAD OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AND 2) AROUND PERIPHERY OF CNTRL IND ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN DESTABILIZATION/INCREASING DYNAMIC ASCENT AND/OR POTENTIAL FOR NRN IL TSTMS TO PROPAGATE INTO NRN IN. ACROSS SRN WI...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG FRONTAL OCCLUSION. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...ENHANCED STRETCHING INVOF FRONTAL OCCLUSION/REGION OF 100 J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD THREAT FOR ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41969203 42309085 42539015 43139031 43709070 43978963 43918879 43278833 42838781 41898760 41528586 40278589 40538691 40469043 40289188  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 22:49:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 17:49:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192259.j4JMxtbA029960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192259 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF IL...SERN MO INTO NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 192259Z - 200030Z ONLY ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SERN IL AND EXTREME SWRN IL. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FURTHER EAST OVER INDIANA INTO KY WHERE THERE IS STRONGER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NWD OVER NERN IL NEAR MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. LATEST RUC MODELS INDICATES THAT THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE ESE OVER SERN IL. THEN...REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS BOUNDARY FROM NRN ACTIVITY APPROACHES REMAINING INSTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...THE WATCH MAY BE REPLACED SHORTLY WITH A NEW WATCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN IL. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36459113 36909114 37459111 38878948 39958831 40298780 39918755 39038756 38348754 37468851 36248988 35629061 35479080 35509110 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 23:04:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 18:04:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192314.j4JNEd8u004987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192313 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-200115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF INDIANA...KY AND TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...292... VALID 192313Z - 200115Z MUCH OF THE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS MERGERS IN THE VICINITY OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN IL SEWD INTO EXTREME SWRN AND S CENTRAL OH. ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE 30-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ENHANCING WARM AIR THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE AREA FROM SERN IL AND INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MOVE INTO AREA OF 2000-2500 J/KG INSTABILITY. COMBINATION OF STRONG NNWLY UPPER FLOW AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS POISED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS... STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35548999 36078953 36888879 37638804 38338732 38438719 38438641 38418583 38408474 38508326 38288307 37548377 36848425 36188483 35618540 35488567 35478728 35458824 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 23:19:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 18:19:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192330.j4JNUBVK012351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192329 KYZ000-INZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO N CENTRAL KY S OF THE LUK/CVG AREA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291... VALID 192329Z - 200100Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRAINING ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ALONG OHIO RIVER BASIN AT THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS POISED OVER THE AREA WITH 30-35 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDERNEATH NNWLY 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AREA THAT MAY STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH CARROLL...OWEN AND GRANT COUNTIES IN KY...THEN SWD IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CONTINUED CELL MERGERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 38708738 39228740 39418737 39488665 39388582 39238508 38938463 38568444 38508491 38538538 38618613 38668739 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 19 23:20:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 18:20:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505192331.j4JNV0Do012610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192330 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA/FAR SRN WI/NRN IL INTO NW IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290...293... VALID 192330Z - 200100Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 290 -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE IL -- AND WW 293 ACROSS NW IND THROUGH 02Z. ONGOING WELL ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS NRN IL SOUTH OF I-80...WITH CONTINUATION OF SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 290/WW 293...ESPECIALLY FROM NE IL INTO NW IND. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE CELL -- WITH HISTORY OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- OVER IROQUOIS AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NEWTON/BENTON/WARREN COUNTIES OF NW IND GIVEN STRONG WLY/MODERATE INSTABILITY FEED AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS FAR ERN IA/FAR SRN WI/NW IL IN THE SHORT TERM GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41969203 42309085 42539015 43139031 43709070 43978963 43918879 43278833 42838781 41898760 41528586 40278589 40538691 40469043 40289188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 01:21:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 20:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200132.j4K1WNAH006815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200131 VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF IN...KY...WRN WV AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289...291...292...293... VALID 200131Z - 200300Z WE ARE CLOSE TO EXPIRATION OF SEVERAL WATCHES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WE ARE THINKING OF REPLACING THE WATCHES ACROSS INDIANA AND KY INTO TWO WATCHES IN WHICH ONE WILL BE OVER KY INTO WV. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL MOVING EWD/SEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO NERN KY AND NWRN NC. AIR MASS S AND W OF THE LOW/BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. ACTIVITY CONTINUES UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHERE LATEST 850 MB RAOB ANALYSIS SHOW 30-40 KT WSWLY JET INTO ERN KY. THIS COMBINATION CONTINUES TO ENHANCE UVVS TO SUSTAIN MCS WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX... 39838784 39908701 39748595 39348507 38748512 38558407 38308263 38008164 37488140 36778228 36548272 36348520 36318718 36808804 37728816 38668792 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 03:14:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 22:14:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200324.j4K3Oouk025140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200324 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SERN MO INTO CENTRAL AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 294... VALID 200324Z - 200530Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA OVER E CENTRAL AND SERN MO FOR ADDITIONAL WW. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS E CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL. NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL MO IS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT EXTENDS EWD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/BOUNDARY. MLCAPE IS 1500-2000 J/KG AND RUC SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH LATEST RAOB DATA SHOWS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5C/KM. FOR EXAMPLE...THE RUC SOUNDING FOR KFAM INDICATES WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WITH AN MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH BRN SHEAR OF 53 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING LIFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE WW AREA AND NEAR AND S OF THE STL AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 37229012 37259050 37239101 37349162 37569220 38169248 38689172 39099039 39239005 39598941 39898882 39988821 40078788 39168789 38658786 38058784 37658785 37228782 37168868 37208989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:46:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:46:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200457.j4K4vR3x027471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200456 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200456Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING TH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESOHIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCRASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTIAN AREA NEXT SEVRAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER NEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:48:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200458.j4K4wxiJ027713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200458 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200458Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESO HIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCREASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OVER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OVER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:50:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:50:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200500.j4K50rHN028335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200456 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200456Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING TH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESOHIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCRASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTIAN AREA NEXT SEVRAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDER NEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 04:50:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 May 2005 23:50:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200501.j4K51Jx3028723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200458 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-200700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN VA...WRN AND CENTRAL NC...ERN TN AND NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200458Z - 200700Z WE WILL BEGIN MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WATCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH S CENTRAL WV AND EXTREME WRN VA AND EXTREME NRN TN. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MESO HIGH IS POOLING COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS LINE PUSHING IT TOWARDS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS FROM 1000 J/KG OVER NERN GA TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS 35-40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MID TN INTO WV NOW INCREASING TO 40-45 KT OVER NC INTO SERN VA BY 09Z. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD OVER NC AND VA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THUS...IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME THAT REINTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOW OVER SC AND NC ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INDICATING SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADS TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME COULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... 37148121 37278001 36957898 36227874 35347986 35098062 34738162 34748277 35298402 35578447 35998442 36248317 36508200 36838161  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 09:09:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 04:09:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200920.j4K9KAhA028129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200918 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0418 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY SEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...299... VALID 200918Z - 201015Z THROUGH 10-11Z...APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. TO THE NW...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 297. THIS WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER REACH OF THE OH RIVER. MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION ATTM APPEARS TO BE ENE-WSW ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM W OF BWG TO S OF PAH MOVING SEWD AT 35-40 KTS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER MIDDLE TN REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THOUGH STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD...POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY 1) INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LINE SEWD THROUGH BNA TO N OF CHA...AS WELL AS 2) BY LOCALLY STRONGER 850 MB CONVERGENCE/WAA --PER REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS--. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY DEVELOPING TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER WW 297 IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND THIS WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT 11Z. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX... 37689083 38378698 35208256 33488348 35738810 36249085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 09:43:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 04:43:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505200953.j4K9rn7w011042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200952 SCZ000-GAZ000-201045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SC MIDLANDS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200952Z - 201045Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS S OF WW 298 AND SE OF WW 299. THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM APPROXIMATELY 30 S OF SPA TO 25 NE OF MCN WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 20-30 KTS. REGIONAL VWPS AND PRESSURE FALLS NOTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN /PER 09Z MESOANALYSIS/ BOTH SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN IN PLACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE-INVERSION AND ROOTED WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS ABOVE WSWLY LLJ SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED FORWARD MOTION /AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL/ OWING TO PROPAGATION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33148356 33988262 34238187 34188022 33348028 32438182 32138300 32588366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 12:32:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 07:32:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201242.j4KCgxWD025745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201242 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-201415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN/NERN AL INTO NRN GA AND NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 298...299... VALID 201242Z - 201415Z THROUGH 14-15Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN/NERN AL INTO NWRN GA. LINE OF TSTMS HAS RE-INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER MIDDLE TN INTO N-CNTRL AL...WITH LEADING EDGE OF MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FROM MARION COUNTY TN SWWD INTO LIMESTONE COUNTY IN N-CNTRL AL. BOTH 12Z BMX AND FFC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ ATOP A NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION. BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS /PER MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY/ SUGGEST THAT DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD ELIMINATE THIS INVERSION BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME. GIVEN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WITH APPROACH OF OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CORRIDOR FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY SEWD ACROSS NRN GA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING ACROSS NRN INTO CNTRL AL...POSSIBLY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. FARTHER TO THE E OVER NRN SC INTO WRN/CNTRL NC...AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE STABLE AND WW 298 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. ..MEAD.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH... 34658721 35708799 36738744 36508508 34808273 34938078 34937974 33878050 34068310 33408361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 17:06:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 12:06:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201716.j4KHGolx003864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201716 SCZ000-GAZ000-201745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201716Z - 201745Z NEW WW WILL ISSUED EAST OF WW 300 INTO PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. SURFACE HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITHIN MOIST AXIS HAS RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVER ERN GA INTO SRN SC. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...IT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. STRONG STORMS OVER ERN PORTION OF WW 300 /EAST CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 33908223 34098179 33188001 32578032 31658099 31178137 31328225 31668216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 17:45:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 12:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201756.j4KHuBGH001184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201755 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO MUCH OF MS/AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300... VALID 201755Z - 201900Z NEW WW/S ARE BEING CONSIDERED FOR MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MS AND EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. ONGOING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 300 WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD FROM SRN MIDDLE TN TO NRN/CENTRAL GA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PRIMARY LOW OVER MIDDLE TN ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...WITH SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING SWD AND WSWWD FROM THIS LOW INTO CENTRAL AL/SRN MS AND ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF NRN AL/MS INTO AR. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE TROUGHS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. ***POTENTIAL WW/S NRN/CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL*** VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE TROUGHS INTO NRN AL/MS AND INTO CENTRAL AL/SERN MS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SWD ACROSS MS/AL WITH 35-45 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ***WW 300*** REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SEVERAL LINE OF STORMS WITHIN WW 300 MOVING TO THE SE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KY INTO NRN AL AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGHS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF WW 300. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 35988808 33958223 31438218 31878429 31578599 31258777 31308905 31538982 32499050 33989045 35038986 34988814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 18:29:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 13:29:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201840.j4KIe9KQ000578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201839 MNZ000-NDZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201839Z - 202045Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN ND INTO FAR NWRN MN BETWEEN 20-22Z. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CAVALIER COUNTY SWWD INTO KIDDER COUNTY. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ACCAS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. AS SFC CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN ND/FAR NWRN MN WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LOW LEVELS WARM INTO THE MID 80S...AND DEWPTS REMAIN OR MIX INTO THE 50S. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM AND MODERATE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS WILL COMBINE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG TO AID IN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LACK OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING/SLIGHT WARMING MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS AND THE NEED FOR A WW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48979741 48769809 47369970 46940010 46529970 46199884 46539679 47999531 49009510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 18:33:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 13:33:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201844.j4KIi8rk003591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201843 SCZ000-GAZ000-201945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 201843Z - 201945Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WW 301. THROUGH 20Z...GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 301...EAST OF A LINE FROM EDGEFIELD COUNTY SC TO RICHMOND COUNTY GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO EXTENDING FROM EDGEFIELD COUNTY SC TO RICHMOND COUNTY GA. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW AT 40-45 KT. ORIENTATION OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT E-W ACROSS SRN SC...SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE THE ZONE FOR GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 20Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW 301 WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE BOW STRUCTURE TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WITHIN AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND ALSO ALONG THE WWD MOVING COASTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 301. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 33918219 33917997 31388041 31378262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 19:35:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 14:35:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505201946.j4KJkBib014931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201945 NCZ000-TNZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201945Z - 202045Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SERN TN INTO FAR WRN NC THROUGH 22-23Z. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING SSEWD ACROSS ERN TN ATTM WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY THROUGH 22-23Z. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX... 36078506 35868456 35908362 35438317 35068329 35008450 35188542 35548595 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:22:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:22:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202032.j4KKWkgW015934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202031 MTZ000-WYZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL MT...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202031Z - 202200Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND FAR NWRN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER SWRN MT DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z OVER SCENTRAL MT/NCENTRAL WY AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING INSTABILITY. TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS SHOW AXIS OF 50+ DEWPTS HAS MOVED AS FAR WWD AS BOZEMAN AREA IN SWRN MT AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER SWRN MT. DESPITE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER AREA PRESENTLY ...LARGER SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. 50-70 KT MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION. INSTABILITY OVER SWRN MT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED INITIALLY BY RELATIVELY LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX... 45910645 46430928 46581085 45861196 45301170 44321033 44180905 44380700 45230566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:30:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:30:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202041.j4KKfJM3021360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202040 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 202040Z - 202215Z DAMAGING WINDS AND THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 301. FURTHER EAST...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC BY 21Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE NEW WW FOR THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SUMTER COUNTY SC SWWD TO LAURENS COUNTY GA...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE OVER SRN/SERN SC ALONG/NEAR THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SERN GA INTO NRN GA ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 301. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 33047914 32258031 31358053 31408262 32498249 33048147 34068035 34167991 34307898 34287772 33877786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:46:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:46:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202056.j4KKusLP031657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202031 MTZ000-WYZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL MT...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202031Z - 202200Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT AS THEY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND FAR NWRN WY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER SWRN MT DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED BY 00Z OVER SCENTRAL MT/NCENTRAL WY AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING INSTABILITY. TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS SHOW AXIS OF 50+ DEWPTS HAS MOVED AS FAR WWD AS BOZEMAN AREA IN SWRN MT AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER SWRN MT. DESPITE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER AREA PRESENTLY ...LARGER SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. 50-70 KT MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION. INSTABILITY OVER SWRN MT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED INITIALLY BY RELATIVELY LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX... 45910645 46430928 46581085 45861196 45301170 44321033 44180905 44380700 45230566  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 20:53:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:53:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202104.j4KL49dP004800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202040 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 202040Z - 202215Z DAMAGING WINDS AND THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 301. FURTHER EAST...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC BY 21Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE NEW WW FOR THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SUMTER COUNTY SC SWWD TO LAURENS COUNTY GA...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE OVER SRN/SERN SC ALONG/NEAR THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SERN GA INTO NRN GA ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 301. ..PETERS.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 33047914 32258031 31358053 31408262 32498249 33048147 34068035 34167991 34307898 34287772 33877786  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 21:39:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 16:39:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202150.j4KLo6mR001068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202149 WYZ000-IDZ000-MTZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202149Z - 202345Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT ACROSS SCENTRAL/SERN ID. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS STRONG UPSLOPE OCCURS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN ID. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SWRN ID AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS EVIDENT BY PRESSURE RISES/COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AT BOI WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL/SERN ID OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF FORCING/SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL STRONG/ISO SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN ID AS MODERATE SWLY FLOW AIDS IN ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MTNS OF SERN ID. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 43421447 43141499 42611555 42251539 42041532 42061309 42161133 43021084 43911112 44401170 44361320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 21:42:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 16:42:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202152.j4KLqWQG002520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202151 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...CNTRL MS...NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202151Z - 202345Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR/CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS NERN LA THIS EVENING. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER NRN AR AND NRN MS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS WAS VERY HOT AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT AND NLY 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THIS IS PERHAPS DUE TO DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL THAT MIGHT SUSTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WATCH 302...ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33918990 33418946 32048933 32009190 32749332 33529333 34529286 34279184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:12:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:12:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202223.j4KMNFQw018574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202149 WYZ000-IDZ000-MTZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202149Z - 202345Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT ACROSS SCENTRAL/SERN ID. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS STRONG UPSLOPE OCCURS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN ID. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SWRN ID AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS EVIDENT BY PRESSURE RISES/COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AT BOI WILL SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL/SERN ID OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF FORCING/SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL STRONG/ISO SVR STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN ID AS MODERATE SWLY FLOW AIDS IN ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MTNS OF SERN ID. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 43421447 43141499 42611555 42251539 42041532 42061309 42161133 43021084 43911112 44401170 44361320  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:13:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:13:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202224.j4KMOILT019092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202223 MNZ000-NDZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 202223Z - 210000Z LEFT AND RIGHT SPLIT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN ND AND NWRN MN. LIMITED SPACIAL COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING SEVERE PRECLUDES WW ATTM. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE SRN STORM AS IT MOVES FROM CASS COUNTY ND SEWD TO SRN CLAY COUNTY MN/NERN RICHLAND COUNTY ND...AND NRN WILKIN COUNTY MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LEFT SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON COUNTIES MN AS LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW NOTED ON RADAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPDRAFT. THESE ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN 1-2 HOURS...AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO OTTER TAIL/BECKER AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES MN. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ISOLATED SVR STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER BARNES COUNTY...CAPPING REMAINS STRONGER INTO CENTRAL ND...AND THE OVERALL LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL AREA OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48109614 47629718 47009821 46779845 46269810 46189749 46099687 46199618 47259536 47789504 48059527 48129545 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:17:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202227.j4KMRot0020713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202151 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...CNTRL MS...NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202151Z - 202345Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR/CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS NERN LA THIS EVENING. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER NRN AR AND NRN MS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS WAS VERY HOT AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT AND NLY 30-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE. THIS IS PERHAPS DUE TO DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WARMING/SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL THAT MIGHT SUSTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WATCH 302...ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33918990 33418946 32048933 32009190 32749332 33529333 34529286 34279184  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:44:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:44:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202254.j4KMsad4031869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202223 MNZ000-NDZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NWRN MN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 202223Z - 210000Z LEFT AND RIGHT SPLIT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN ND AND NWRN MN. LIMITED SPACIAL COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING SEVERE PRECLUDES WW ATTM. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE SRN STORM AS IT MOVES FROM CASS COUNTY ND SEWD TO SRN CLAY COUNTY MN/NERN RICHLAND COUNTY ND...AND NRN WILKIN COUNTY MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LEFT SPLIT AS IT MOVES INTO POLK...RED LAKE...PENNINGTON COUNTIES MN AS LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW NOTED ON RADAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPDRAFT. THESE ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN 1-2 HOURS...AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO OTTER TAIL/BECKER AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES MN. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ISOLATED SVR STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER BARNES COUNTY...CAPPING REMAINS STRONGER INTO CENTRAL ND...AND THE OVERALL LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL AREA OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48109614 47629718 47009821 46779845 46269810 46189749 46099687 46199618 47259536 47789504 48059527 48129545  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 22:45:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 17:45:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202255.j4KMtrqF032279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202255 MNZ000-NDZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NCENTRAL SD AND SWRN/SCENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202255Z - 210000Z ISOLATED STG STORM OVER CARTER COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARDS HARDING COUNTY SD AND BOWMAN COUNTY ND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN ND TO JUST EAST OF BIS. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN MT NEWD TO JUST EAST OF BIS. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED...WITH MLCINH AROUND 100 J/KG. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CAP WAS ERODING TO THE EAST OF BIS AND OVER CARTER COUNTY MT. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINATION OF INCREASED LIFT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48109614 47629718 47009821 46779845 46269810 46189749 46099687 46199618 47259536 47789504 48059527 48129545 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:27:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:27:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202337.j4KNbsLY017379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202336 SDZ000-NEZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/CENTRAL SD...FAR NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202336Z - 210100Z ISOLATED STG/SVR STORM OVER TODD COUNTY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SCENTRAL SD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT IF SEVERAL STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WOULD SUPPORT A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC PRESSURE FALL/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED SFC PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL SD/NWRN NEB HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR. MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE /40 KT/ WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY OF AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WITH ANY STORM OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET /02Z/. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...THEN AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IF MORE THAN ONE STORM DEVELOPS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE NEED FOR A WW AFTER 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43009921 43939936 44560006 44720094 44450157 43730203 43280200 42850169 42590074 42709981 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:35:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:35:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202345.j4KNjwPp020515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202344 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 202344Z - 210115Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE SEGMENTS SHOWING SOME BOWING CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS SRN GA WERE MOVING INTO POST SQUALL LINE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF COASTAL SC MCS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CNTRL GA WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. FARTHER WEST...COMPLEX ACROSS WCNTRL AL APPEARS TO BE NEAR SQUALL LINE/SYNOPTIC FRONT INTERSECTION. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED COINCIDENT WITH THIS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT SPREAD SWD ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LASTLY...INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE GULF BREEZE IN THE SRN PARTS OF WATCH 302. GIVEN DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE FL PNHDL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AL LATER...MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH FROM MOBILE BAY EAST ACROSS THE FL PNHDL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 30218311 30018408 29708532 30018683 30308843 30558910 31498935 33458940 33558955 33938952 33588772 33758705 33938620 33368502 32918424 32538274 32468240 31948263 31668293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:36:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:36:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202347.j4KNl65t021269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202336 SDZ000-NEZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/CENTRAL SD...FAR NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202336Z - 210100Z ISOLATED STG/SVR STORM OVER TODD COUNTY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SCENTRAL SD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT IF SEVERAL STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WOULD SUPPORT A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC PRESSURE FALL/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED SFC PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL SD/NWRN NEB HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR. MERRIMAN PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE /40 KT/ WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY OF AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WITH ANY STORM OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET /02Z/. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...THEN AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IF MORE THAN ONE STORM DEVELOPS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE NEED FOR A WW AFTER 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43009921 43939936 44560006 44720094 44450157 43730203 43280200 42850169 42590074 42709981  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 20 23:40:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 18:40:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505202351.j4KNp7Mc022553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202344 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 202344Z - 210115Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE SEGMENTS SHOWING SOME BOWING CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS SRN GA WERE MOVING INTO POST SQUALL LINE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF COASTAL SC MCS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CNTRL GA WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. FARTHER WEST...COMPLEX ACROSS WCNTRL AL APPEARS TO BE NEAR SQUALL LINE/SYNOPTIC FRONT INTERSECTION. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED COINCIDENT WITH THIS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT SPREAD SWD ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LASTLY...INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE GULF BREEZE IN THE SRN PARTS OF WATCH 302. GIVEN DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE FL PNHDL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AL LATER...MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH FROM MOBILE BAY EAST ACROSS THE FL PNHDL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 30218311 30018408 29708532 30018683 30308843 30558910 31498935 33458940 33558955 33938952 33588772 33758705 33938620 33368502 32918424 32538274 32468240 31948263 31668293  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 00:37:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 19:37:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210048.j4L0m3Lk014599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210047 MTZ000-WYZ000-210215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL...ECENTRAL/SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303... VALID 210047Z - 210215Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WW 303. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS FROM GOLDEN VALLEY AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES IN SCENTRAL MT INTO ECENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY HIGH TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...THESE STORMS MAY MOVE JUST OUT OF WW 303 ACROSS ECENTRAL MT...BUT AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT ATTM. GIVEN LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL CURRENTLY NE OF WWW 303...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FARTHER SOUTH...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NCENTRAL WY PER SFC ANALYSIS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE NRN BIG HORN MTNS. UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF IDAHO...AND RECENT TRENDS IN SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT STRONG CONVECTION OVER NWRN WY/ERN ID SHOULD SURVIVE AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL MT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL STG/SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER THE NRN BIG HORN MTNS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO SERN MT AND WW 303. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 47630488 47330710 46891049 44980952 45010409 47550406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 01:31:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 20:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210141.j4L1flWe002643@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210140 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-210315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN LA...WCNTRL AND SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304... VALID 210140Z - 210315Z ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN AR WHILE LARGER CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS INVOF FRONTAL WAVE NEAR FRONT/SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION OVER CNTRL MS. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD FUEL CONVECTION NEAR THE STRONGER MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE SFC LOW/WAVE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MID LEVEL WARMING NOTED IN SHV RAOB MAY ACT TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND STORM PERSISTENCE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS WATCH 304. THUS...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PARTS OF LA MAY BE CLEARED IN LATER STATUS MESSAGES. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... 31338940 31599253 33119257 32568935 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 03:28:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 22:28:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210338.j4L3cWB8016491@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210337 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE LA/MS/AL/SW GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302...304...306... VALID 210337Z - 210500Z SEVERE WW 302 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 04Z...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SEVERE WW 304 IS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR PORTIONS OF SW MS...AND AS SOON AS THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE WW...THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. STORMS CURRENTLY IN SW MS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SRN LA...BUT THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT. A NEW WW IS NOT BEING PLANNED DOWNSTREAM. FARTHER EAST...STORMS FORMING IN SE AL ARE LIKELY DEVELOPING ATOP THE COLD POOL...SO THIS BACKBUILDING IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT A SEVERE THREAT. FORWARD PROPAGATION IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS SRN GA...WHERE THE COLD POOL IS MORE DEVELOPED. HOWEVER THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE MCS IS MOVING OFFSHORE. ..TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 30188303 31549138 32339092 31548469 31488307 30428297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 03:35:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 22:35:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210346.j4L3kJmm018848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210345 NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-210545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...307... VALID 210345Z - 210545Z NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING FROM ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES...EAST TO DAWSON COUNTY IN ERN MT AS STRONG UPPER IMPULSE DRIVES LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS OVER ND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL WY AND THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE CROSSED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT/WY WITH STORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO WRN PORTION OF WATCH 303. DEEPENING SFC LOW AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT STRONG INSTABILITY NWWD OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR... STORMS IN THIS REGIME WILL PERSIST AND ROTATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG DOWNBURSTS. LATEST IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO CONFIRM SHORT TERM MODEL DATA THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NWRN ND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 47240263 46790505 44920434 44890945 46871060 46920707 47890674 48710261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 04:27:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 May 2005 23:27:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210437.j4L4bnQ2005256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210437 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-210600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...ERN SD...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 305... VALID 210437Z - 210600Z SEVERE TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO ERN SECTIONS OF SVR TSTM WATCH 305 OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS ERN MT MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR. EVOLVING MCS MAY INCREASE CHANCES FOR WIND DAMAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST ACROSS WRN ND NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE EDGE OF HIGH PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED IN LATEST RUC AND NAM FCSTS AND NOW APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING FROM POTTER COUNTY TO SANBORN COUNTY IN ERN SD. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE ZONE OF STORM INITIATION...EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. A NEW WATCH MAY BE FORTHCOMING FOR PARTS OF ERN SD SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46920380 48139577 46279573 46079704 43629679 43379910 45590061 44950388 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 05:58:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 00:58:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210608.j4L68xbq007250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210608 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-210745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ND/NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210608Z - 210745Z A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 305 EXPIRING AT 07Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN SD /SW OF REJ/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. AS OF 0550Z...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WERE IN PROGRESS OVER GARFIELD...ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES IN ERN MT...AS WELL AS EDMUNDS AND FAULK COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL/NERN SD. THE FORMER STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT STEADILY PUSHING EWD ACROSS ERN MT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS...INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SWRN ND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 - 9 C/KM. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWING STRUCTURES EWD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ALONG WARM FRONT. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 3 KM AGL AND SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE INVERSION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER STORMS OVER N-CNTRL/NERN SD ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ALONG SLY 50 KT LLJ AXIS. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE W...AIR MASS IS STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44940401 46890398 47109587 44959591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 09:43:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 04:43:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505210953.j4L9rsd6003016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210952 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-211115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 210952Z - 211115Z THROUGH 12Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM NEAR BIS NEWD TO THE RED RIVER N OF FAR. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST E OF THE MO RIVER APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES N OF BIS AS OF 0936Z. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BOWING STRUCTURE OVER WELLS...EDDY AND BENSON COUNTIES...AND A MORE ISOLATED STORM OVER MORTON COUNTY...IT APPEARS THAT A STRONG CAP IS SUPPRESSING MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THROUGH 12Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR BIS NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER N OF FAR. HERE...CAP MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY ERODED TO SUSTAIN SEVERE CONVECTION OWING TO PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARISING FROM COUPLING OF: 1) STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG LLJ AXIS...AND 2) REGION OF MESOSCALE ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ..MEAD.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47510224 48899562 46549568 45210201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 12:33:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 07:33:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505211244.j4LCiKSX002541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211243 MNZ000-NDZ000-211345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 211243Z - 211345Z THROUGH 14Z...MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW 309 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 14Z. VERY STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z ABR SOUNDING HAS EFFECTIVELY REDUCED ENVIRONMENTAL CAPE AND INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WW AREA. ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF MCV WHERE REGION OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY SHIFT EWD ACROSS RED RIVER INTO NWRN MN...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE MELTING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN WARM CAP LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48309913 48899562 46549568 46009845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 18:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 13:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505211825.j4LIPglo028297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211824 MNZ000-NDZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211824Z - 211930Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR ERN ND INTO MUCH OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL MN IN THE NEXT HOUR. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER ERN ND /EAST OF A DVL-JMS LINE/ INTO ERN SD NEAR ABR TO WNW MHE. STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN/SWRN MANITOBA. DESPITE A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... ALBEIT A NARROW AXIS ALONG/E FRONT...CLOUDINESS OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN WILL FURTHER SLOW SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG THE ERN ND/MN BORDER SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA/ND THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY 20-21Z AS IT REACHES FAR ERN ND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE IN A LINE VERSUS BECOMING DISCRETE... DESPITE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47989772 49009797 49009575 46619501 45979504 45969627 45969809 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 19:35:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 14:35:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505211946.j4LJkK7q031829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211944 MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211944Z - 212045Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR ERN NEB. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB /AROUND AND S OF OFK/ WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR ERN NEB. CAPPING INVERSION REMAINED OVER FAR ERN NEB PER OMAHA 18Z SOUNDING. HOWEVER...THIS SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR WARM SECTOR SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUGGESTED THE CAP HAS BECOME VERY WEAK. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE MID 90S AND INCREASING ASCENT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ESEWD IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40439792 41919815 42809818 42499650 40099555 40169786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:29:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:29:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212040.j4LKeJna026107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212039 KSZ000-COZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212039Z - 212215Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SEWD OVER WRN KS AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF HLC TO 50 WNW OF GCK TO 20 NORTH OF LAA. TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 50. THIS HAS PROVIDED FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM 800-1000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 19Z RUC SOUNDINGS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. OVERALL ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT EXPECTED SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39419966 38840087 38410171 37890208 37470201 37220169 37250062 37539964 38189884 39309909 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:41:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212052.j4LKq11i030967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212050 MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-212145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212050Z - 212145Z WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ONCE CU FIELD OVER ERN NEB SHOWS SIGNS OF UPWARD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. CAP STRENGTH BEING MONITORED ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITHIN NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40439792 42729833 42829747 42629659 40099555 40169786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 20:55:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 15:55:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212106.j4LL61Ju004950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212039 KSZ000-COZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212039Z - 212215Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SEWD OVER WRN KS AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF HLC TO 50 WNW OF GCK TO 20 NORTH OF LAA. TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 50. THIS HAS PROVIDED FOR MLCAPE VALUES FROM 800-1000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 19Z RUC SOUNDINGS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. OVERALL ISOLATED COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT EXPECTED SUGGESTS THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 39419966 38840087 38410171 37890208 37470201 37220169 37250062 37539964 38189884 39309909  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 21:09:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 16:09:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212119.j4LLJS0g011265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212050 NDZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212050Z - 212245Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN DEEPLY MIXED POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER NRN ND. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION WAS INCREASING OVER NWRN ND AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORT LOBE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. DESPITE THE AREA BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN ND...A NARROW AXIS OF DEWPTS NEAR 50 DEGREES RESIDED OVER NRN ND. COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50 KTS AT 2 KM ON THE VWP FROM MINOT/ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER OCCURS WITH STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 49070207 48560260 48290233 48200109 48229932 48269848 48489797 48799759 48959823 49000072  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 21 23:20:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 18:20:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505212331.j4LNV3aP008019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212329 KSZ000-220100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212329Z - 220100Z TCU AND CB HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. A SMALL SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE STORMS IF THE ACTIVITY PERSISTS OR INCREASES. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST FRONTAL AND DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS CNTRL KS...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY BREACH STRONG CAP AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION OVER LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES IN NCNTRL KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WSWWD FROM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF INHIBITION LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION CAN PERSIST. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS...HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND FRONTAL FORCING COULD EITHER 1) PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR...2) SUSTAIN ISOLATED ONGOING STORMS MOVING EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IF UPDRAFTS CAN TAP THIS GREATER INSTABILITY. INITIALLY...SEVERE HAZARD WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. IF MORE PERSISTENT/STOUT CELLS TAKE SHAPE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ENSUE...AND A WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38909787 38839655 39009643 39029553 37959581 38059803 37999973 38259972 38529982 38649966 39389793 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 00:17:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 19:17:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505220028.j4M0S7CS032465@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220026 IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB ...WRN IA...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311... VALID 220026Z - 220200Z VERY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE BULK OF TORNADO WATCH 311 THIS EVENING. EARLIER ATTEMPTS AT STORM INITIATION NEAR FRONT BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER EXTREME SERN NEB HAVE FAILED AS CELLS DRIFTED SEWD OFF THE BOUNDARY AND DECAYED OVER NERN KS. ANOTHER UPDRAFT APPEARED TO COINCIDE WITH COLD FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW INTERSECTION ACROSS SERN SD. THIS CELL HAS ALSO WEAKENED/DIMINISHED. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT IN EXTREME SERN SD WHERE CAP MAY BE WEAKEST. CLEARLY...CAP IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE ALMOST ALL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OTHERWISE. OMA/TOP RAOBS INDICATED NEARLY 200 J/KG MLCIN AND WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING NOW SETTING IN...PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING. NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. EVEN ONE STORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THUS...WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... 39159550 39089788 43169723 43139478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 01:19:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 May 2005 20:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505220129.j4M1TVKG021130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220128 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-220330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0828 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220128Z - 220330Z TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND MO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASCENT DRIVEN BY INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK IMPULSE CRESTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NEB...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS IA AND MO TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK-REFLECTIVITY STORMS IN AN ARC FROM SERN IA INTO NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEAR 850-700MB FRONTAL SURFACE...ON THE ERN EDGE OF STRONG CNTRL PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ARE LIKELY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST POINT FCST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ROTATION. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY SUPPORT HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 39049239 39029402 40049503 41099526 41759508 40979153 40139133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 05:46:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 00:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505220557.j4M5vMvN015917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220556 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL IA INTO CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220556Z - 220700Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0543Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 W OF LWD TO 40 NE COU. SYNTHESIS OF CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORK SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING N OF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMPOSITE AND ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ WHERE MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ARE BEING MAXIMIZED. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT LOCAL AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 1-1.5 KM AGL WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40259542 41189497 41529383 40549226 38939146 38169235 38139368 39329505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 19:04:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 14:04:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505221914.j4MJEkFB011520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221913 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO...NERN OK...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221913Z - 222115Z PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO...AND NWRN AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE WAS ROUGHLY SITUATED ALONG A STL-SGF-BVO-P28 LINE WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR AND THEN EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN OK/NWRN AR AS SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN OK BENEATH STRONG CAP...BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE OZARKS. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION TO POSSIBLY ROOT INTO THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM EXTREME SERN KS INTO SRN MO AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT IN THIS REGION WHERE THE CAP IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKER. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...PERHAPS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE... MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER 100F NEAR THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. OR...ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST MAY BACKBUILD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. DISCRETE CELLS NEAR OR ON BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IN AREAS WHERE THE LFC IS LOCALLY LOWER AND SHEAR IS GREATER. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35559414 35669516 35919606 36939895 37279890 37649498 37829407 37909241 37419185 36879204 35909249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 20:47:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 15:47:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505222057.j4MKvSat027836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222056 NMZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF FAR SERN WY...ERN CO AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222056Z - 222300Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MDT-TOWERING CU ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NERN NM...AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES IN CO/FAR SERN WY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST INTO THE REGION...WITH SSELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF NERN CO...AND SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED SELY FLOW IN SERN CO/NERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A LEE LOW /DENVER CYCLONE/ WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY IN THIS AREA. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MLCINH HAS WEAKENED TO AROUND 50 J/KG. ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/...BUT 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME SVR THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ..CROSBIE.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 41250441 41490493 41320580 40790572 40050556 39460544 38930542 37960542 37200516 36770512 36500502 36390491 36270443 36780392 39030421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 22 22:19:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 17:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505222230.j4MMUILC004297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222229 KSZ000-OKZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...EXTREME SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222229Z - 230000Z AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE WW. ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM SHOULD GROW RAPIDLY AND BECOME SEVERE...WITH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM BVO-PNC WWD ACROSS CENTRAL GRANT/ALFALFA COUNTIES NWD TO NERN WOODWARD COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN SOME NWD DRIFT THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT HAS STALLED AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST S OF KS BORDER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. MESONET DATA...AND CLEAR-AIR MODE REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS FROM VANCE AFB UNIT...INDICATE MESOBETA SCALE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY S OF FRONT -- DRIFTING NWD ACROSS MAJOR/GARFIELD/NOBLE/PAWNEE COUNTIES. SEVERAL MISOSCALE CIRCULATIONS AND CLUMPS OF DEEP CU/TCU ARE EVIDENT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY...INDICATING LOCALLY FOCUSED CONVERGENCE/LIFT. VIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MORE HOMOGENEOUS SHALLOW CONVECTION IN EXTENSIVE FIELD OVER SRN KS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 25-75 NM N OF FRONT. GLACIATING TCU ALSO IS EVIDENT OVER NWRN OSAGE COUNTY ALONG FRONT...AND OTHER DEEP CU/TCU ARE SEEN ON SRN BOUNDARY OVER PAWNEE COUNTY. AIR MASS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE IS WELL SAMPLED BY VWP/PROFILER DATA...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED 18Z LMN RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE AND ALMOST NO CINH. WEAK/BACKED SFC WINDS IN THIS AREA CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 250-350 J/KG FOR ESEWD STORM MOTION. STRONG VEERING BUT WITH SPEED WEAKNESSES IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW INDICATE QUICK EVOLUTION TO HEAVY-PRECIP AND PERHAPS OUTFLOW DOMINANT MODES FOR ANY DISCRETE STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR BOW DEVELOPMENT EXISTS ALSO. ..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36259729 36219838 36189901 36229937 36529977 36849981 37129971 37349940 37459879 37499790 37499672 37279560 36989549 36579563 36319616 36259680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 02:24:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 21:24:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230234.j4N2YdO4010516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230233 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN KS...NERN OK...EXTREME SWRN MO...NWRN-CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230233Z - 230430Z REGIME OF ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY NWRN AR SHOULD EXTEND INTO PORTIONS NERN OK AND CENTRAL/SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MOST INTENSE CELLS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. IR CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION ATTM. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN MO OZARKS WWD ALONG NRN TIER OK COUNTIES...THEN SWWD OVER TX PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER AR MCS EXTENDS FROM NEAR HOT NWWD TO JUST E TUL...INTERSECTING FRONT THERE. CONTINUED DIABATIC COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER -- NE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N OF SFC FRONT -- SHOULD DECOUPLE BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER...THOUGH LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE SFC ARE NOT TOO STABLE TO PROHIBIT STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS FROM PENETRATING TO SFC AS WELL. MODIFIED LMN/SGF RAOBS...AS WELL AS RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATE STEEP 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 150 MB TROPOPAUSE LEVELS OVER THIS AREA. WHEN COMBINED WITH 13-14 DEG C 850 MB DEW POINTS...SUPPORT VERY DEEP BUOYANCY PROFILE WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS NOTED ON 500 MB CHART OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS APPEAR TIED TO WEAK PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN PROFILER AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN CO...INDICATING SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN LARGE SCALE UVV OVER DISCUSSION AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 36939716 37279740 37669746 38299724 37939506 37349408 35599182 34739251 35919529 36419654 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 04:26:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 May 2005 23:26:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230436.j4N4ahjC022542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230435 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...N-CENTRAL/NERN OK...NWRN-CENTRAL AR...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312... VALID 230435Z - 230630Z CONTINUE WW. RAPID DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF TSTMS CONTINUES OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN KS WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS OK BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME...5Z ONWARD. SEVERE HAIL HAS OCCURRED AND...WITH FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE WITH TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN KS. HEAVY PRECIP SUPERCELL RIGHT-MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ELK COUNTY KS ATTM...TOWARD CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WITH OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WNWWD ACROSS COWLEY/BUTLER COUNTIES. UP TO 2.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN PAST HALF HOUR. VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES GENERALLY SSEWD ACROSS REMAINDER KS/OK BORDER REGION FROM COWLEY KS AND OSAGE OK COUNTIES EWD OVER NEXT 3-4 HOURS. REFLECTIVITY AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES COMPLEX BACKBUILDING AS FAR W AS HUT...KEEPING POSSIBILITY OPEN OF SEVERE HAIL OVER ICT AREA. CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER SWRN MO/NWRN AR. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST 3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PORTION KS/OK BORDER REGION...WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEARS USING MU PARCELS WILL REMAIN IN 40-50 KT RANGE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36579845 38629844 37049247 35039249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 06:24:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 01:24:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230635.j4N6ZA3A028782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230634 TXZ000-OKZ000-230730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230634Z - 230730Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND NO WW IS ANTICIPATED. REMNANTS OF DIURNAL TSTMS ORIGINATING OVER THE RATON MESA SUNDAY EVENING HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE NWRN TX PNHDL WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED WITH SRN-MOST CELL NEAR HARTLEY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE NEAR SURFACE-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY 30 KT LLJ IN PLACE OVER WRN TX INTO THE PNHDL. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION...THOUGH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM 1.5-2 KM AGL. ONGOING STORMS WILL REMAIN CABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA... 35930240 36360219 36540168 36570063 36140022 35720015 35230073 35120138 35250216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 07:21:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 02:21:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505230732.j4N7WABU014645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230731 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312... VALID 230731Z - 230830Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EVOLVING MCS HAS STARTED TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL FROM NOWATA COUNTY OK INTO BENTON COUNTY AR WITH A SSEWD MOTION OF 35-40 KTS. RUC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS E-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 KT. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OWING TO INCREASED SYSTEM MOTION...EXPECT MCS AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR E-CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL/CNTRL AR BY 10-11Z. MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENSION OF MCS REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR ICT AS A RESULT OF SUBSEQUENT BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION COUPLED WITH VEERING LLJ MAY SUPPORT MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND INCREASING WIND THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38709846 37099235 35009233 36549851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 10:01:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 05:01:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231012.j4NACBqQ008268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231010 OKZ000-231115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231010Z - 231115Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS W OF WW 312. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ERN CANADIAN/WRN OKLAHOMA AND SRN LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG SWD-SURGING MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CNTRL CANADIAN INTO NRN HUGHES COUNTY AS OF 1000Z. RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR BETWEEN THE LFC AND SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION IS LIKELY DILUTING PARCEL BUOYANCY. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CIN SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 35669845 35919821 35869697 35579669 35089656 34869661 34799705 34889757 35029807 35229852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 11:40:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 06:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231150.j4NBocMb010536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231148 ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-231315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... VALID 231148Z - 231315Z THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP MCS COLD POOL. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE S OF PARENT MCS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF SYSTEM OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE PERSISTED ON NWRN FLANK OF MCS /OVER NERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS/ WHERE WSWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING STRONG LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ATOP COLD POOL. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN THIS SAME REGIME...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 13 OR 14Z WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND WW 313 MAY EVENTUALLY BE CANCELLED IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37469663 35419090 33319098 35459670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:06:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:06:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231717.j4NHHAiT027306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231716 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA AND PORTIONS OF ERN NC/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231716Z - 231845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA SWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA IN THE LYH AREA WITH A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW NEAR A RDU-FAY-AGS LINE. AIR MASS IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A 7OKT MID LEVEL JET IS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION LOCATED ACROSS ERN VA. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS STRONGER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STRONGER CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE LEESIDE TROUGH...S OF FLO...IS AIDING IN CUMULUS ENHANCEMENT. WITH THE WEAK CAP...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP INTO STORMS SHORTLY...WITH OTHERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT WOULD AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT COVERAGE...SO STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER ENOUGH COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP FOR A WW ISSUANCE. ..IMY.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33378094 34297983 35487825 36797787 38187742 38647673 37867579 36067569 34057761 32897973 32628049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:13:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:13:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231723.j4NHNhmm031979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231722 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...CENTRAL/SRN AL...CENTRAL/SRN GA...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231722Z - 231915Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN MS ENEWD INTO WCENTRAL GA. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR CONVECTION BECOMING LINEAR WITH TIME. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE. A WW COULD BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30 S OF MEI TO MGM TO JUST W OF ATL. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH. ALTHOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG ATTM /20-25 KTS/ PER REGIONAL VWP/S AND PROFILER DATA...THE COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHING WIND MAX FROM MCV OVER AR/WRN TN WILL AID IN 2-6 KM FLOW FIELDS OVER THE AREA INCREASING TO 30-40 KTS BY MID AFTERNOON. ATTM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOT OVERLY STRONG. HOWEVER...APPROACHING MCV OVER WRN TN/AR SHOULD AID IN SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. COMBINED WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BEGINNING AROUND 19Z. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 6-6.5 DEG C/KM. THUS THE SVR HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33438271 33688477 32338656 31978797 31718883 30908916 30158829 30208569 30078441 31258131 32418144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 17:44:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 12:44:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231754.j4NHsWt0020917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231753 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN OK...SWRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231753Z - 231930Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN SERN OK AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WITH A HAIL THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR PICTURES SHOW A MCV NEAR ADM MOVING ESEWD AT 35-40 KT THROUGH SRN OK. RECENT WIND PROFILES AT OKC AND TUL ALSO SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM...WHICH SUPPORT WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL THREAT. ..IMY.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34089651 35319631 35529541 35239434 34089338 33169359 33499532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 18:03:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 13:03:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231813.j4NIDVa5000713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231812 MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH...SCENTRAL LOWER MI...AND NRN WV/SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231812Z - 232015Z ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERNEATH UPPER VORT MAX CENTERED OVER WRN LK ERIE ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL ALLOW FOR MUCAPES TO REACH 800-1000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. AXIS OF MODERATE /30-50 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW ON NRN SIDE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMT OF SVR HAIL POTENTIAL...THUS PRECLUDING A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... 41208187 42008410 41938476 41098475 40138372 39308217 38598061 38617976 39277936 40288090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 18:58:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 13:58:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505231909.j4NJ93Pq009996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231908 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME NWRN KS AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231908Z - 232015Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A WW POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NWRN KS AND WRN NEB. AT 19Z...COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SEWD AND EXTENDED FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE SWWD TO EAST OF AKO AND THEN WWD TO NEAR COS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. BEHIND THE FRONT...NEWLY WINDS WERE STRENGTHENING AS THE UPSLOPE WIND DEEPENED...RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S SO HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH SURFACE FRONT AND GREATER INSTABILITY ...EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NERN CO PLAINS INTO WRN NEB. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BETWEEN COS AND LIC...WHERE COLD FRONT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY IS INTERSECTING HIGHER TERRAIN....SO WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z-21Z. ..IMY.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38890497 39840395 40720323 42720240 42820170 42300030 37910208 37910276 38250427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:02:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:02:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232113.j4NLDDwS031707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232112 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232112Z - 232245Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WW 314 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH SERN VA TOWARDS NORFOLK/NEWPORT NEWS IN THE 1-1.5 HOURS. INTERACTION OF SUPERCELL WITH OCEAN BREEZE FRONT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /27 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER WAKEFIELD VWP/ MAY AID IN A SHORT TERM TORNADO THREAT OVER SURRY AND ISLE OF WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE THE SUPERCELL CROSSES INTO MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED OVER NEWPORT NEWS/NORFOLK AREA. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE EARLIER PRECIP...SUFFICIENT CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION AGAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER WV AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY OR INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO WCENTRAL VA AND WW 314. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:27:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:27:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232137.j4NLbWoj014259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232136 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232136Z - 232300Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522 37000284 36990448 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:30:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:30:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232141.j4NLfHjR016564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232139 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232139Z - 232315Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 36890327 36960434 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 21:41:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 16:41:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232152.j4NLq0pT023583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232112 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232112Z - 232245Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WW 314 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH SERN VA TOWARDS NORFOLK/NEWPORT NEWS IN THE 1-1.5 HOURS. INTERACTION OF SUPERCELL WITH OCEAN BREEZE FRONT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /27 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER WAKEFIELD VWP/ MAY AID IN A SHORT TERM TORNADO THREAT OVER SURRY AND ISLE OF WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z BEFORE THE SUPERCELL CROSSES INTO MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED OVER NEWPORT NEWS/NORFOLK AREA. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE EARLIER PRECIP...SUFFICIENT CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION AGAIN OVER CENTRAL VA. ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER WV AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY OR INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO WCENTRAL VA AND WW 314. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:12:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:12:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232222.j4NMMRZF010176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232136 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232136Z - 232300Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38487673 38487919 36437753 36497522 37000284 36990448 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:13:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232223.j4NMNlEH011232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232139 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232139Z - 232315Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS /OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50 J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 36890327 36960434 36380512 35450459 35000364 34860237 34990125 35790112 36900166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:23:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:23:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232234.j4NMY5Gu016474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232233 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...ERN/S-CENTRAL CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315... VALID 232233Z - 240000Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/SHIFT EWD FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 315...ASSOCIATED WITH EWD/SEWD MOTION OF ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING IN BROKEN BAND FROM PERKINS COUNTY NEB SWWD TO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY BEFORE 23Z. MAIN THREAT E OF WW 315 WILL BE LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE ALONG WRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...INTERSECTING COLD FRONT BETWEEN IML-OGA. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WIDENS ACROSS WRN KS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F. GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT OVER REGION...AND ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SFC BASED BUOYANCY FROM DIABATIC HEATING...2500-3500 MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TSTMS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...SOME OF WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP...HOWEVER STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37060262 37050551 41880327 41880014 41769995 41449978 41009977 40169947 39299907 38599876 37919934 37290039 37000101 37090259 41860017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:33:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:33:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232243.j4NMhXbw022207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232242 NCZ000-VAZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232242Z - 232345Z WW 314 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY 24/00Z. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN VA BEFORE LEADING STORM MOVES OFFSHORE. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN VA PORTION OF WW 314 IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE IN THE WAKE OF FIRST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314 WILL ALSO AID IN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA. THUS IT IS BECOMING UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION OVER WV WILL POSE A SVR THREAT WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL VA. IF CURRENT STABILIZING TRENDS CONTINUE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37917866 37847799 37057737 36777697 36527558 36527572 36477757 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 22:59:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 17:59:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232310.j4NNAGWU004404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232309 GAZ000-ALZ000-240115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN AL...CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232309Z - 240115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LACK OF MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE HAS MITIGATED STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG SFC FRONT...FROM JUST SOUTH OF BHM TO JUST NORTH OF MCN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 50 KTS SAMPLED BY THE OKOLONA MS PROFILER ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCV OVER NRN AL/GA WILL AID IN 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DESPITE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS... UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR MODE MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 33138393 33058592 32938701 32498691 31788584 31448364 31848151 32528143 33288197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 23:00:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 18:00:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232311.j4NNB8YU004750@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232233 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...ERN/S-CENTRAL CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315... VALID 232233Z - 240000Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/SHIFT EWD FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 315...ASSOCIATED WITH EWD/SEWD MOTION OF ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING IN BROKEN BAND FROM PERKINS COUNTY NEB SWWD TO CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY BEFORE 23Z. MAIN THREAT E OF WW 315 WILL BE LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE ALONG WRN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...INTERSECTING COLD FRONT BETWEEN IML-OGA. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WIDENS ACROSS WRN KS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F. GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT OVER REGION...AND ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SFC BASED BUOYANCY FROM DIABATIC HEATING...2500-3500 MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TSTMS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...SOME OF WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE SOME WEAKNESSES AROUND 2-3 KM AGL BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP...HOWEVER STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37060262 37050551 41880327 41880014 41769995 41449978 41009977 40169947 39299907 38599876 37919934 37290039 37000101 37090259 41860017  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 23:06:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 18:06:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232317.j4NNHDgs008179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232242 NCZ000-VAZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 232242Z - 232345Z WW 314 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY 24/00Z. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z ACROSS EXTREME SERN VA BEFORE LEADING STORM MOVES OFFSHORE. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN VA PORTION OF WW 314 IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE IN THE WAKE OF FIRST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314 WILL ALSO AID IN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA. THUS IT IS BECOMING UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION OVER WV WILL POSE A SVR THREAT WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL VA. IF CURRENT STABILIZING TRENDS CONTINUE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 314...WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37917866 37847799 37057737 36777697 36527558 36527572 36477757  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 23 23:24:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 18:24:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505232334.j4NNYf3M017550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232309 GAZ000-ALZ000-240115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN AL...CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232309Z - 240115Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 01Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LACK OF MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE HAS MITIGATED STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU ALONG SFC FRONT...FROM JUST SOUTH OF BHM TO JUST NORTH OF MCN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH. A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 50 KTS SAMPLED BY THE OKOLONA MS PROFILER ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCV OVER NRN AL/GA WILL AID IN 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DESPITE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS... UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR MODE MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 33138393 33058592 32938701 32498691 31788584 31448364 31848151 32528143 33288197  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 00:21:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 19:21:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505240031.j4O0VdOu013810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240030 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316... VALID 240030Z - 240230Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- LARGELY OVER SRN UNION COUNTY NM AS OF 0015Z -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/PROPAGATE INTO TX PANHANDLE...MAINTAINING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BETWEEN WEAK LOWS NEAR GUY AND TCC. AIR MASS N OF THAT BOUNDARY -- IN INFLOW REGION OF NERN NM CONVECTION -- IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC FLOW WITH PRIMARY ELY COMPONENT...ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR ESEWD MOVING CONVECTION. SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS NWRN TX PANHANDLE YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. NRN PORTION OF COMPLEX MAY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES -- PREFERENTIALLY BUILDING INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BUOYANCY INCREASES TO 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE RANGES FARTHER N OVER OK PANHANDLE WHERE MODIFIED DDC RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS. CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION AND LOSS OF INSOLATION-RELATED SFC HEATING INDICATE COUNTIES W AND NW OF CONVECTION MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW ONCE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUTSIDE THEIR BORDERS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 34890405 36970397 36970104 34900118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 02:29:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 May 2005 21:29:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505240239.j4O2dXoJ015128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240238 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCH 315...317... VALID 240238Z - 240345Z BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ANALYSES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BOTH WW 315 AND SEVERE WW 317 MAY BE REPLACED WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOST OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY OUTFLOW AND SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. ELSEWHERE...STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS BENT/KIOWA COUNTIES CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND WW 317. OTHER TSTMS BETWEEN GLD AND LINCOLN COUNTY CO -- AS OF 230Z -- ARE MOVING SEWD ALONG COMBINED COLD FRONTAL/OUTFLOW SURGE...AND COULD MERGE WITH FORMER ACTIVITY INTO MCS. WITH DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC TO STRENGTHEN...ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD. MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ATTM APPEARS TO BE CO/KS BORDER REGION NEAR WRN PORTION WW 317. THIS AREA IS ALONG NWRN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS -- ANALYZED ON 00Z 850 AND 925 MB CHARTS FROM CENTRAL OK NWWD ACROSS WRN KS. THIS CORRIDOR ALSO CORRESPONDS TO RUC FCST K INDEX AXIS THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. GREATEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN OVER SAME AREA WITH MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY CONCERN ATTM IS RELATIVELY STRONG CINH EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 36990052 36980137 36990251 37050322 37410366 37750378 38370362 38800379 39130376 39400346 39860163 40070043 40039967 39729942 38799917 37909892 37229906 36979933 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 06:05:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 01:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505240615.j4O6FmPa001064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240614 OKZ000-KSZ000-240745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318... VALID 240614Z - 240745Z THROUGH 10-12Z...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS MAY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK...POSSIBLY INTO NERN OK. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. AS OF 0556Z...DDC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF MCS GUST FRONT FROM RUSSELL AND RUSH COUNTIES SWWD TO MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER HODGEMAN...SWD THROUGH FORD AND THEN SWWD INTO MEADE COUNTIES. WELL-DEFINED REAR INFLOW JET HAS DEVELOPED TO THE S OF THIS MESOSCALE VORTEX WITH GREATER THAN 64 KT INBOUND VELOCITIES VERY CLOSE TO GROUND LEVEL OVER HODGEMAN AND FORD COUNTIES. ASOS OBSERVATIONS FROM GCK AND DDC INDICATE THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 55-70 MPH SURFACE WINDS. 06Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS MCS IS MOVING/PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH GUST FRONT E OF LBL SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND INTO SWRN AR. AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS /I.E. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ N OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG FROM NEAR DDC SEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK INTO NERN OK AND W-CNTRL AR. SYSTEM FORWARD SPEED OF AROUND 40 KTS AND RESULTING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF 50-60 KTS WHEN COUPLED WITH DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO SPREAD AS FAR SE AS NERN OK BY 12Z. POSSIBLE FAILURE MODES OF SYSTEM ARE: 1) STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN GUST FRONT CIRCULATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUST FRONT TO OUTRUN PARENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LEADING EDGE UPDRAFTS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY TILTED UPSHEAR WITH TIME. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 38160164 39129973 38349819 37399602 36599511 35939522 35369605 35399695 36069873 37330122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 10:31:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 05:31:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241041.j4OAfrBW031268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241040 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS AND N-CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 241040Z - 241215Z THROUGH 12Z...GREATEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES ESEWD ACROSS FAR SERN KS...AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO NERN OK. AS OF 1015Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED WELL-DEFINED MCV JUST N OR NW OF HUT WITH LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVE MCS GUST FRONT FROM WRN MARION COUNTY SWD THROUGH ERN BUTLER AND COWLEY COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS. INSPECTION OF ICT VWP INDICATES THAT REAR-INFLOW JET /LARGELY RESULTING FROM ENHANCED FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF MCV/ HAD DIMINISHED TO 40-45 KTS...IN COMPARISON TO 60-65 KTS OBSERVED EARLIER ON THE DDC VWP. NONETHELESS...RECENT ICT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THIS WIND IS CLEARLY REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING ACTIVE CONVECTION. FARTHER S OVER N-CNTRL OK..ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG GUST FRONT AND APPARENT GRAVITY WAVE TRAIN OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND GUST FRONT SUGGEST THAT CAP IS LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER SW...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED BEHIND GUST FRONT OVER CANADIAN...CADDO AND GRADY COUNTIES. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...IT APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE N OVER SERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO NERN OK WHERE MCS COLD POOL IS BEING BETTER SUSTAINED BY ACTIVE CONVECTION AND CHANNELED FLOW AROUND MCV. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38309765 36879349 34169360 35479775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 14:03:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 09:03:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241414.j4OEE5Wa009820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241413 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS...EXTREME NERN OK...EXTREME SWRN MO AND WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 241413Z - 241445Z REMAINING PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 319 EXPIRES AT 15Z AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED/REISSUED. MCS CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH STRONGEST TSTMS MOVING INTO SWRN MO AT MID-MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A MCV AND ON THE NOSE OF THE SWLY 15-20 KT LLJ. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A DIURNAL WEAKENING TREND AND THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/AHEAD OF MCV ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGER TSTMS MAY HAVE A PROPENSITY TO DEVELOP NEAR/S OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED SEWD FROM MCV CENTER TO NEAR FORT SMITH TO SRN AR. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 37009679 37759625 36869368 36049370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 15:21:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 10:21:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241531.j4OFVhvg029967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241530 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-241700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241530Z - 241700Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND/DEVELOP S AND SEWD FROM SERN KS AND SWRN MO INTO MUCH OF ERN OK AND AR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. WELL-DEFINED MCV WAS MOVING SSEWD THROUGH SERN KS BETWEEN KICT-KCNU AT 15Z AND SHOULD DRIFT INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A NW-SE BAND TO THE W AND S OF KJLN...ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST 925 MB LLJ CORE. SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS AR WAS HEATING RAPIDLY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS A CU FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS WRN AR...A POSSIBLE SIGN THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHORTLY. FARTHER W IN ERN OK...MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY WILL MITIGATE STRONG SURFACE BASED HEATING UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN. BUT...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE MCV AS IT DROPS SEWD INTO NERN OK AFTER 18Z. PROFILERS SHOW A 40-45 KT H5 JET MAX WRAPPING SEWD AROUND THE MCV AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE SEWD WITH TIME...ENHANCING THE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE CELLS MATURE...BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 36899426 36239261 34979150 33969128 33349265 33509387 33939465 35439605 36849633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 16:00:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 11:00:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241610.j4OGAOu3025722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241609 FLZ000-241815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241609Z - 241815Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CTY TO NEAR DAB IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOWERING CU WAS FORMING ALONG SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR TLH TO NW OF DAB. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND ONLY 50-100 J/KG OF CINH. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WAS AROUND 30 KTS PER 12Z SOUNDING AT TLH AND JAX...LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS VEERED TO WLY AROUND 10 KTS. THUS EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS AROUND 20-25 KTS...WHICH WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS WERE RELATIVELY COLD /-10 TO - 11 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. THUS SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. IN ADDITION UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR STORM MODE WITH TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29218103 29698119 29818186 30038341 29158300 28558283 27868250 27738139 27598031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 17:34:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 12:34:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241745.j4OHj2ad031541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241743 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-241945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...WCENTRAL MS AND NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241743Z - 241945Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SFC CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING OVER NERN LA. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCINH HAS DECREASED TO LESS THAN 25 J/KG OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK...LITTLE REMAINING CINH INDICATES THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR INTO WCENTRAL MS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN WAA ZONE OVER CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA...SO MULTICELLULAR TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LINEAR. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING NWRN AR/NERN OK MCV...CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33119011 34049140 33939249 33349265 32539247 32009133 31969040 32288992 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 17:55:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 12:55:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241805.j4OI5oDM013635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241803 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB AND EXTREME NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241803Z - 242000Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTN WITH THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 20Z. 17Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK E-W BOUNDARY FROM A LOW VCNTY KDEN TO SWRN NEB...AUGMENTED BY ELEVATED MORNING TSTMS/ACCAS. TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY...THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE OWING TO HEATING AND RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE. THE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS TO THE FRONT RANGE. CONTINUED HEATING WILL START TO ERASE CINH ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS ABOUT 20Z. CURRENT CONVECTIVE PULSES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL EVENTUALLY ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST AND RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM EWD ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY TOWARD SWRN NEB/NWRN KS LATER THIS AFTN. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 6KM IS SOMEWHAT WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS AT MIDDAY...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER THIS AFTN. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALSO...THOUGH DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE HIGH...PRESENCE OF A DENVER CYCLONE AND E-W SHEAR ZONE/BOUNDARY... LANDSPOUTS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE ZONE FROM JUST E OF KDEN TO WASHINGTON COUNTY CO. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38160225 37910346 38070488 38990495 40070512 40910487 41010296 41050183 40620123 39980105 39250148 38620175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 18:12:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 13:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241822.j4OIMQGr025470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241821 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320... VALID 241821Z - 242015Z LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED VCNTY KTUL...JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV OVER EXTREME SERN KS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD OUTFLOW MOVING TOWARD ECNTRL OK AND NWRN AR. MOREOVER...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED THROUGH CNTRL AR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HIGHER DEW POINT AXIS FROM THE KMKO-KFSM-KELD. MLCAPES IN THIS AXIS ARE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR/S OF KTUL/KMKO BY 20Z AND RAPIDLY BECOME STRONG-SEVERE OWING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE CELLS TO DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR MCS AND BOW AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO WCNTRL AR/ECNTRL OK WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PREFER THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...THE ONCE STRONG ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS OVER NWRN AR HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE LLJ AXIS HAS WEAKENED. BUT...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL...MORE SURFACE BASED...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 33649466 36349572 36349252 33599166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 19:24:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 14:24:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505241934.j4OJYpTg010511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241933 NCZ000-SCZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241933Z - 242200Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN NC AND FAR NERN SC AFTER 21Z. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AFTER 23Z...WHEN STRONGEST LIFT INTERACTS WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF OCEAN BREEZE FRONT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND SPATIALLY LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MEAGER...UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEWPTS...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OF NERN SC NWD INTO THE WRN ALBEMARLE SOUND OF NC WHERE OCEAN BREEZE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND DEWPTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF ERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AS STRONG HEATING SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS MAX CROSSING THE AREA WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. IN ADDITION STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND MOVES INTO GREATER INSTABILITY...MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...ALONG AND EAST OF THE OCEAN BREEZE FRONT OVER THE INLAND 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES AFTER 22Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 36027564 36417639 36437774 35907892 35217961 34437983 33847979 33417935 33957789 34637706 34887624 35437546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 19:58:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 14:58:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242008.j4OK8fZt001588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242007 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB AND SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242007Z - 242100Z A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF WEAK BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM SCNTRL SD INTO SWRN NEB. PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING AUGMENTED WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES YIELDS ALMOST NO INHIBITION. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY FORM FIRST ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN NEB INTO SERN SD WHERE SRN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL JETLET MOVING ACROSS ERN SD SKIRTS THAT AREA. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD SWWD TOWARD THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER NERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40990203 41350069 42629946 43549857 43559688 42889649 42349694 41399851 40330005 40080202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 20:32:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 15:32:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242043.j4OKh3MQ024440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242042 ARZ000-OKZ000-242215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320... VALID 242042Z - 242215Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE SEWD ATTM...SITUATED JUST SW OF KTUL-KMKO AND THEN INTO NWRN AR. CU FIELD WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SWELLING WITH GLACIATED TOWERS SHOWING UP ATTM ACROSS ECNTRL OK IN DOWNSTREAM VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PRIND THAT STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GROW STRONGER...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING SEWD WITHIN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN AR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH IS ERODED. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL AR...INTERMIXED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. MODEST 35-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE MCV OVER NERN OK WILL AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING EARLY PART OF STORM LIFECYCLES. BUT...GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AND ACCELERATE ESEWD INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL AR LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... 33799469 36259564 36259248 33639156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 22:04:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 17:04:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242215.j4OMFFqi012714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242213 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN C.O..NWRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322... VALID 242213Z - 242345Z SCATTERED TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- OVER NERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND SEWD INTO NWRN KS. ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER AXIS OF MAX CINH - NOW EVIDENT N-S ACROSS WRN KS -- BUT ALSO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW. WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER NWRN KS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED ARC OF CUMULI EXTENDING FROM SRN PORTION WW 324 SWD THROUGH NORTON/SHERIDAN/NESS/CLARK COUNTIES KS AND WOODS COUNTY OK..MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. THIS ALSO DENOTES 60 DEG F SFC ISODROSOTHERM ACROSS KS. SFC MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM SRN PORTION OF THAT PLUME...AND IS ANALYZED FROM WOODS COUNTY OK NWWD THROUGH DDC TO ITR...THEN INTO ONGOING CONVECTION. PRIND POTENTIAL MCS WILL FAVOR THIS AXIS -- ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION SURVIVING SFC DRY POCKET BETWEEN GLD-MCK WILL MOVE INTO RICHER MOIST PLUME AS WELL. FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH 15-20 KT 850 MB SELYS OBSERVED AT GLD VWP. THIS -- COMBINED WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOWS...MAY OVERCOME CINH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZE AN MCS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39160206 39160504 40960522 40990216 39160211 39990211 40000000 38249994 38250206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 24 23:03:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 18:03:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505242313.j4ONDuHC006726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242313 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-250115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB...CENTRAL/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... VALID 242313Z - 250115Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT FROM CHARLES MIX COUNTY SD SWWD ACROSS ANW AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE SWWD INTO LARGE TSTM COMPLEX OVER NERN CO. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD. POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ALONG FRONT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BILLOWS OVER AREA...INDICATING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS REMAINS STABLY STRATIFIED. ALSO...ANVIL CANOPY FROM LARGE NERN CO TSTM COMPLEX WILL SPREAD OVER AREA AND SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT FURTHER HEATING ALONG FRONT. SOME CLEARANCE OF WW MAY BE NEEDED INVOF FRONT IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF THESE TRENDS DO NOT REVERSE. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONVERGENCE LINE -- ANALYZED AT 2230Z FROM UNION COUNTY SD SWWD TO NEAR HDE. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH ANY ACTIVITY MOVING MORE THAN 20-30 NM EWD FROM THIS LINE INTO RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOIST AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 60S F DEW POINTS --ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND FRONT. MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WITH ACTIVITY IN SERN PORTION WW -- INVOF HDE. 15-20 KT SELYS ARE EVIDENT IN NEARBY UEX VWP DATA IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES DERIVED FROM RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 40009886 39980205 43519989 43539649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 00:02:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 19:02:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250013.j4P0D38q030629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250012 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323... VALID 250012Z - 250145Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE NWWD ACROSS LAA AREA TOWARD EL PASO COUNTY. S OF FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN AREAS NOT ALREADY MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WITH MORE DISCRETE SERN CO STORMS AS WELL. WW CLEARANCE WILL DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP OUTFLOW POOLS TO STABILIZE AIR MASS OVER SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF WW...A PROCESS THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ABOUT THE TIME WW IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AROUND 02Z. THERFORE...BULK OF WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL EXPIRATION. SRN END OF LARGE MCS -- MOVING SEWD FROM NERN CO INTO WW 326 -- WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL THAT SHOULD PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL/WIND AS IT MOVES OVER ERN CHEYENNE COUNTY BEFORE 01Z. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- EVIDENT FROM SERN EL PASO COUNTY SSEWD TOWARD NERN CORNER OF NM AND EWD TOWARD SRN END OF MCS -- MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS EL PASO/LINCOLN/CHEYENNE COUNTIES AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS THAT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36980199 36970495 39140505 39150209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 00:09:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 19:09:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250020.j4P0KBWX001032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250017 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...SW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... VALID 250017Z - 250215Z STORM COMPLEX CENTERED SE OF FSM AND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCV CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND IT ACROSS NERN OK. OVERALL COMPLEX IS MOVING SE AT 35 KTS WITH CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE COMPLEX...ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE. THE LINE WAS ORIENTED EAST/WEST FROM ABOUT 35 SE OF FSM TO ABOUT 40 N OF ADM...WITH A DEPTH OF 1.5 KM. MLCAPE CONTINUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ERN AND SERN PTN WATCH HAS STORMS CONTINUING TO BE STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD WITH MLCAPE STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... 35169596 35439449 35079314 34939276 33039173 33079468  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 00:47:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 19:47:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250057.j4P0vZ2b018214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250056 KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323...326... VALID 250056Z - 250230Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO REPLACE ONE OR BOTH OF THESE...IN ORDER TO CONSOLIDATE THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER WRN KS/SERN CO AS MCS GENERALLY MOVES SEWD. LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM N-CENTRAL OK WNWWD ACROSS SWRN KS AND INTO SRN PORTION OF MCS -- WHERE HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS ARE RIGHT-MOVING SSEWD OR SWD ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS KIOWA/CHEYENNE COUNTIES CO. 850 MB DEW POINT 15 C NOTED AT DDC...BENEATH 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER. THIS SUPPORTS MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. AS NEAR SFC LAYER DECOUPLES WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC SHOULD STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS AS HIGH AS 50-60 KT FOR ANY ACTIVITY WHICH CAN SURVIVE PASSAGE THROUGH AXIS OF CINH THAT IS STILL ANALYZED N-S ACROSS WRN KS. FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GROWING/DEEPENING COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AIR THAT PROCESS. THEREFORE...SWRN KS AND MORE OF W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS IS LIKELY TO NEED WW COVERAGE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38210207 36930202 36970493 39160510 39160223 40000199 40029935 38219981 38210202 38229981 40029934 39639886 39069852 38369831 37759841 37409870 37059917 36979939 36970025 36980203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 01:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 20:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250145.j4P1jMM0004646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250144 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR..NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... VALID 250144Z - 250345Z ISOLD HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS BUT WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FEEDING STORMS ALONG AND OF THE UPPER LEVEL MCV ..STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT TO THE SE. AT THIS TIME..ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH FOR LA NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... 34419494 35219428 34139231 32349113 31549109 32089231 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 02:50:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 21:50:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250301.j4P31B5P002028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250300 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...CENTRAL/SRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... VALID 250300Z - 250400Z SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS IN SMALL AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN HSI-OFK -- IN NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MOVES EWD OFF PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE LINE WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED LOW LEVEL THETAE AND IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN. NRN END OF KS MCS...WHICH EXTENDS INTO NEB SSE HDE...ALSO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALONG WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. WITH LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TEMPORAL DURATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND 4Z...BULK OF WW SHOULD EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS NEEDED...FOR COUNTIES ALONG ITS SERN FRINGES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 40029884 39980212 43549992 43529650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 03:19:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 22:19:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250329.j4P3Te2O012353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250328 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS...OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327... VALID 250328Z - 250530Z ARC OF SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN KS. BOWS WITHIN LARGER MCS WILL BE FOCI FOR ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. SRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX PANHANDLES...AND ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FROM THERE INTO PORTIONS NWRN OK/S-CENTRAL KS BEFORE THIS ONE EXPIRES. MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS -- ANALYZED ON SFC...925 AND 850 MB CHARTS FROM NEAR DDC ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK. PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT ON 925/850 MB ANALYSES OVER CENTRAL KS. LITTLE NWD MOIST ADVECTION LIKELY AT THOSE LEVELS...SINCE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO MOISTURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE SMALLER OVER N-CENTRAL KS THAN AREAS FARTHER S AND SW. THIS FITS CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS INDICATED BY REFLECTIVITY DECREASE OVER NRN PORTION OF COMPLEX. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST S OF MOISTURE GRADIENT...FAVORING FORWARD PROPAGATION ON LEADING EDGE OF CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL THAT HAS EVOLVED TO THE REAR OF THIS ACTIVITY. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SWATH OF SWRN KS AND ERN OK PANHANDLE SE OF BOW...LOCATED IN HAMILTON COUNTY KS AT 330Z. ADDITIONAL BOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG INFLECTION POINT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SEWD. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 36830287 39000287 39939798 37759798 36840280 37759799 37389800 36869809 36219863 36009972 36110055 36580201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 04:54:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 May 2005 23:54:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250505.j4P55EmA014223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250504 NEZ000-250700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250504Z - 250700Z LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL NEB WITH CONVECTION NOW MOVING ESEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN NEB COUNTIES SHERIDAN/BOX BUTTE/DAWES/SIOUX. ELEVATED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN MT AND N-CENTRAL/NERN WY. SFC TEMPS ARE IN 50S OVER REGION WITH STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FCST TO CONTINUE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...THOUGH A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY PENETRATE TO SFC. HOWEVER...ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AMIDST STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL RISK. USING LIFTED PARCEL ROOTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDS 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BASED ON COMBINATION OF PROFILER/VWP WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDING. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... 42910398 42960315 42790215 42610115 42189990 41819943 41439956 41270001 41210061 41410145 41740244 42170328 42510396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 05:32:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 00:32:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250543.j4P5hBkY028884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250542 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-250715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN KS...SERN CO...NWRN OK...OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327...328... VALID 250542Z - 250715Z CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SEVERE MCS. SFC ANALYSIS AND WIND TRENDS FROM REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS SHIFTING SWWD ACROSS OK -- IN RESPONSE TO PREVAILING ENELY FLOW COVERING MUCH OF REGION NEAR SFC. GIVEN ANTICIPATED FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEEDS...45-60 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IS AVAILABLE TO THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 1-4 KM AGL LAYER. ACCORDINGLY...MOST INTENSE PORTION OF MCS -- CROSSING BEAVER/TX COUNTIES IN OK PANHANDLE AS OF 540Z -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD TOWARD GAG/CSM CORRIDOR -- INCLUDING NERN TX PANHANDLE. MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED PORTIONS SERN CO N-NE OF LHX. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OF WAA ELEVATED OVER TOP OF MCS OUTFLOW POOL....WHERE RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL...PRIND ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 35759825 35410176 37050183 36840286 39020287 39939800 37809799 37639827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 08:30:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 03:30:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505250840.j4P8et3S031246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250839 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OK PNHDL./NWRN OK INTO THE NERN TX PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328... VALID 250839Z - 250945Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 328 THROUGH 10Z. WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH NO SUBSEQUENT RE-ISSUANCE ANTICIPATED. GRADUAL DECAY OF MCS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SWRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS AND NWRN OK. CLUSTER OF TSTMS ELEVATED ATOP SYSTEM COLD POOL FROM STEVENS AND SEWARD COUNTIES IN SWRN KS SEWD INTO ELLIS AND ROGER MILLS COUNTIES IN WRN OK MAY POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY...NO ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37300181 37649827 35779827 35460179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 12:41:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 07:41:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251252.j4PCq0rt024134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251251 OKZ000-TXZ000-251415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251251Z - 251415Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS AS THEY SHIFT SEWD ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA PER CURRENT FDR VWP. 12Z AMA...OUN AND FWD SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35360059 35899959 35409839 33909752 33169774 33039881 33399949 33830007 34550059 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:05:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:05:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251715.j4PHFLrQ026553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251714 TXZ000-OKZ000-251845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... VALID 251714Z - 251845Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE FOR PARTS OF N TX INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. SWRN PART OF THE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OVER WRN N TX APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE DFW AREA SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSOLATION ACROSS N TX HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY THAT MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AS CINH IS ERODED VIA DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL. TSTM CLUSTER ORIENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME MORE LINEAR SINCE MID-MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE WNWLY FLOW REGIME. AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD EXPANDS AND STORMS BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING WINDS MAY RESULT FROM THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD TRACK SEWD NEAR/N OF THE METROPLEX BY 18-19Z. AS THE STORMS MATURE...FORWARD SPEED MAY INCREASE AND STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE LINE...INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED OVER NCNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32689907 33669910 34309742 33229422 31219430 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:25:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:25:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251735.j4PHZPCD005656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251734 FLZ000-251900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251734Z - 251900Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... MODIFIED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY FROM INDIAN RIVER COUNTY TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. WITH DEEP WNWLY FLOW THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR INLAND BEFORE IT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT...ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ERN POLK COUNTY...ALONG STRONGER SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED SE-NW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NORTH OF TPA. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH INTENSE LAPSE RATES THROUGH 3 KM. IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL SOON EVOLVE THEN CLUSTER BEFORE PROPAGATING SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN PENINSULA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28298186 27678014 26317983 26098041 26998119 27868226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:29:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:29:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251740.j4PHe3Js008611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251714 TXZ000-OKZ000-251845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... VALID 251714Z - 251845Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE FOR PARTS OF N TX INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. SWRN PART OF THE ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OVER WRN N TX APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE DFW AREA SEWD INTO CNTRL LA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSOLATION ACROSS N TX HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY THAT MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AS CINH IS ERODED VIA DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL. TSTM CLUSTER ORIENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME MORE LINEAR SINCE MID-MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE WNWLY FLOW REGIME. AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD EXPANDS AND STORMS BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING WINDS MAY RESULT FROM THE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD TRACK SEWD NEAR/N OF THE METROPLEX BY 18-19Z. AS THE STORMS MATURE...FORWARD SPEED MAY INCREASE AND STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE LINE...INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED OVER NCNTRL TX. ..RACY.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32689907 33669910 34309742 33229422 31219430  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 17:35:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 12:35:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251746.j4PHk8Hs011910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251734 FLZ000-251900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251734Z - 251900Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... MODIFIED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY FROM INDIAN RIVER COUNTY TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. WITH DEEP WNWLY FLOW THIS WIND SHIFT WILL NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR INLAND BEFORE IT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT...ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ERN POLK COUNTY...ALONG STRONGER SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED SE-NW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NORTH OF TPA. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH INTENSE LAPSE RATES THROUGH 3 KM. IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL SOON EVOLVE THEN CLUSTER BEFORE PROPAGATING SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN PENINSULA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28298186 27678014 26317983 26098041 26998119 27868226  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 18:47:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 13:47:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251857.j4PIvO0L022731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251856 NMZ000-252100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251856Z - 252100Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL/NERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS CU FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NCNTRL NM AND THE RATON MESA. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED AT LEAST UPPER 40S DEW POINTS WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID IN TSTM INITIATION. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR S THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NM/CO BORER WILL TRAVEL BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUT...PRIND IS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA S OF THE RATON MESA INTO ECNTRL NM WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE CINH AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER 22-23Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ECNTRL NM. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF THREAT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS CLUSTER AND POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A MCS. ..RACY.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 35000543 35840535 36900521 36900403 36750322 35090323 34210324 34040449 34080538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 18:50:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 13:50:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251901.j4PJ11SZ025124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251859 TXZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251859Z - 252030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z... COMPLEX SFC PATTERN HAS EVOLVED ACROSS NORTH TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT INTO NERN TX WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE. RESULTANT SFC BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE SHOULD SHARPEN NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF FTW...WWD TOWARD ABI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AND BECOME WEAKLY CAPPED ALLOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS ZONE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE MCS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...HOWEVER STORM EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY BECOME AN MCS AS IT PROPAGATES SWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AFTER 26/00Z. LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASES WITH MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32550111 32749905 32149723 30899751 30539929 30980146 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 19:44:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 14:44:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505251955.j4PJt3EW025986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251954 FLZ000-252100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330... VALID 251954Z - 252100Z ...SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY SAG SWD INTO CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF WW... ROUGHLY 30 MI WIDE ZONE OF MULTI CLUSTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THIS SLOWLY EXPANDING ZONE OF STORMS MAY GRADUALLY SAG SWD WITH TIME AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTS SWWD AT ROUGHLY 10 KT...ALLOWING NEW UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW. RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT SWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26678022 27728201 28418192 27617999 27127926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 21:47:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 16:47:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252157.j4PLvlcp004870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252156 TXZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332... VALID 252156Z - 252330Z A BOWED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SEWD PART OF WW 332 OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM FAR NE TX ACROSS WRN AND SRN LA. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS ACROSS EAST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 68 TO 72 DEGREE F. THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD DOWN THIS MOIST AXIS AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD FUEL THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET IN NE TX AND PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPEED MAX. AS THE JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE SE EDGE OF WW 332...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SE TX AND ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA LATER THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31279644 31679603 31969518 32029462 31469419 31039400 30559425 30259513 30199579 31049635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:01:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:01:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252211.j4PMBpsN012474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252142 FLZ000-252345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330... VALID 252142Z - 252345Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WW... STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM STORM COMPLEX. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INDIVIDUAL STORMS AS NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS CELLS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS MAIN COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD NEXT TWO HOURS. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28028197 28168181 27248037 27077996 26367971 26318132  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:09:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:09:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252219.j4PMJgSL016318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252218 NMZ000-COZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331... VALID 252218Z - 260015Z STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING FROM 500 J/KG ALONG THE NRN PTN OF WW TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SRN PTN OF WATCH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 33560535 36970531 37030308 33540324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:13:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:13:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252223.j4PMNvju018676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252156 TXZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332... VALID 252156Z - 252330Z A BOWED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SEWD PART OF WW 332 OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM FAR NE TX ACROSS WRN AND SRN LA. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS ACROSS EAST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 68 TO 72 DEGREE F. THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD DOWN THIS MOIST AXIS AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD FUEL THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET IN NE TX AND PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF FLOW AT 6 KM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPEED MAX. AS THE JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE SE EDGE OF WW 332...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SE TX AND ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA LATER THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31279644 31679603 31969518 32029462 31469419 31039400 30559425 30259513 30199579 31049635  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 25 22:39:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 17:39:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505252249.j4PMncq0030732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252218 NMZ000-COZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331... VALID 252218Z - 260015Z STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AIDED BY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MLCAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING FROM 500 J/KG ALONG THE NRN PTN OF WW TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SRN PTN OF WATCH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 33560535 36970531 37030308 33540324  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 00:40:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 19:40:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260050.j4Q0oIfD017429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260049 TXZ000-260215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333... VALID 260049Z - 260215Z STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE IN THE WRN PART OF WW 333. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MIDLAND TO NEAR SAN ANGELO WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WHICH COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING TOPS WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WCNTRL TX WHICH SUGGESTS AN MCS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WCNTRL TX. THE MCS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... 30870169 31259959 31619909 32039905 32479925 32639968 32280152 31870237 31040215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 01:07:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 20:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260117.j4Q1HcEW028901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260114 TXZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0814 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333... VALID 260114Z - 260245Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE AND EAST TX THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 333. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM NEAR ABILENE TO NEAR HUNTSVILLE TX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER NE TX...IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS THE CELLS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS EAST TX...MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EAST TX OVER THE 2 TO 4 HOURS. IF THE CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THIS EVENING...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER TO THE WEST...INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY GREATER IN EAST TX WHERE ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT IS PRESENT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT GOING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 333 THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD... 30679700 31989832 32469860 33079804 33059712 31249559 30779575 30479632 30419674  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 04:37:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 May 2005 23:37:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260448.j4Q4m7U6014213@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260447 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260446 TXZ000-NMZ000-260615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX...WEST TX AND SE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334... VALID 260446Z - 260615Z WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SE NM...PARTS OF WEST TX AND ACROSS CNTRL TX. HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 334 AND A NEW WW 335 HAS BE ISSUED WEST OF WW 334 WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE MIDLAND AREA TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WEST TX AND THIS MAY BE INCREASING ASCENT OVER A LARGE AREA. AS A RESULT...STORM COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LARGE MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS WEST TX. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 32660214 32360016 32489808 32309744 31739725 31339747 31139804 30890055 31350295 32160463 32840473 33330427 33230367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 07:39:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 02:39:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260749.j4Q7nWm5009989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260748 TXZ000-NMZ000-260845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PERMIAN BASIN AND SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335... VALID 260748Z - 260845Z THROUGH 09-10Z...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWD INTO CULBERSON....REEVES AND LOVING COUNTIES...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0733Z...MIDLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS OVER EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES IN SERN NM WITH MOST INTENSE STORM /EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ 10-15 MILES E OF CNM MOVING 320/15-20 KTS. CORRESPONDING MAF VWP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA /NAMELY IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER/ IS LARGELY SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MUCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. EXTRAPOLATION OF EDDY COUNTY STORM HAS IT MOVING OUT OF WW 335 PRIOR TO 09Z. ATTM...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 33450449 32930152 31620151 32160450 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 08:08:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 03:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505260818.j4Q8Ias4021522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260817 TXZ000-260915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334... VALID 260817Z - 260915Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN OVERALL DECREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND RESULTANT COLD POOL PRODUCTION HAVE LARGELY STABILIZED AIR MASS ACROSS WW 334 AREA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP STABLE SURFACE LAYER. HOWEVER...THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED AND WW 334 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32150149 33189792 30849792 29840151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 12:36:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 07:36:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261246.j4QCkTUf028759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261245 TXZ000-261415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE HILL COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261245Z - 261415Z ONGOING TSTMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING. AS OF 1237Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON AND CROCKETT COUNTIES MOVING SEWD AT 20-30 KTS. 12Z DRT SOUNDING INDICATED THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. AS BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMS THIS MORNING...ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD-PROPAGATION SUGGEST AN INCREASED LIKLIHOOD FOR DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30890250 31370166 30549953 29359938 28870030 29750151 29930250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 16:26:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 11:26:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261636.j4QGaPIe014937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261635 TXZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336... VALID 261635Z - 261800Z ...MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH OF DRT TO NW OF HDO...AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE HINDERED DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ROUGHLY 30-45 MI DOWNSTREAM OF ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE. STRONGEST SURGE IS NOW WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ACROSS NRN MEXICO. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS A NARROW ZONE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR VCT...NWWD TO SE OF HDO. IF ACTIVITY CAN MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE...AN UPWARD EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THIS ZONE INCREASES. IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX... 28600247 30050044 28949992 28210117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 17:55:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 12:55:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261805.j4QI5QRg009487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261804 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261803 FLZ000-261930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261803Z - 261930Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FL... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT...ROUGHLY 100 MI WNW EYW...BEGINNING TO SHEAR EWD TOWARD SRN TIP OF FL. IT APPEARS A NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL ASCENT MAY SPREAD ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG FOCUSED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES. DEEP WLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE EWD MIGRATION OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... 26498173 26878008 25138031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 18:13:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 13:13:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505261823.j4QINOtl022146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261822 IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-262015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN IA...AND FAR NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261822Z - 262015Z SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MAX HEATING PERIOD ACROSS ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN IA...AND FAR NERN NEB. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY UNFOCUSED...HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TONIGHT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF AN ORGANIZED THREAT AREA DEVELOPS. MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT /-24C TO -25C/ WILL ROTATE ESEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...SW OF QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW EVIDENT ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. DESPITE LACK OF FOCUSED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN DEEP WNWLY FLOW REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5C/KM FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 500MB WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD /MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING/. IN ADDITION...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ESEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40KT AND LOW BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45439487 45329355 43819162 42829136 42469230 42389494 42309725 42449884 42809947 44520062 44840057 45259979 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 20:14:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 15:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505262025.j4QKP9Gu004954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262024 NMZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262024Z - 262200Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... STRONG SFC RIDGE WEDGED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM HAS FORCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NM WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND STRONG BUOYANCY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAN MATEO MTNS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NRN NM. SUFFICIENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE SPINE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER COOLER AIRMASS OF ERN NM LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 33730827 36080758 36660470 34550531 32840532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 26 21:58:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 16:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505262208.j4QM8EnK001306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262207 WIZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-262330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...FAR SE SD AND NE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262207Z - 262330Z SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS FAR NE NEB...SE SD AND IA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN REGIONS OF STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT IN A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S F. THE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE LIMITING SBCAPE VALUES TO BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...500 MB TEMPS BELOW MINUS 20 C ARE CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 30 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CNTRL PLAINS ...WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS IA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41419447 41749605 42219723 43089715 43269643 42749458 42769325 43319234 43389172 42779096 42129133 41709209 41439334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 15:56:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 10:56:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271606.j4RG6iQ4027298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271605 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-271800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN NJ...AND S-CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271605Z - 271800Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z ACROSS CENTRAL PA/S-CENTRAL NY WITH CELL MOVEMENT GENERALLY ENEWD AT 30-40 KT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN DEVELOP. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AT 1545Z...INCREASE IN TOWERING CU WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS N-CENTRAL PA AND FAR S-CENTRAL NY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE COLOCATED WITH A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. ADDITIONALLY...RUC SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NERN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO WRN NJ THROUGH 21Z. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUSTAIN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK...WITH MUCAPE VALUES ONLY 500-1000 J/KG DURING MAX HEATING. HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM. LIKEWISE...INSOLATION IS LEADING TO STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH STRONGER CORES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS... RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE DCAPE VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WIND. ORGANIZATION TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40097686 40127751 40397819 40967857 41867855 42347798 42447682 42397587 42177497 41897449 40957446 40387464 40187521 40157587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 17:23:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 12:23:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271733.j4RHXAHk020189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271732 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-271930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL...IND...FAR NRN KY...AND MUCH OF OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271732Z - 271930Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEING MONITORED IN SEVERAL AREAS INCLUDING N-CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL/SWRN IND...AND N-CENTRAL IL. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED IN LINES. AT 1715Z...BROAD REGION OF MODERATELY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BELT OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS OCCURRED SOUTH OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COOL UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO/SERN MANITOBA. SFC-6KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 35-45 KTS ACROSS IL...IND...AND OH. DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM NRN MO TO WRN PA. HOWEVER...LACK OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S/...IS COMPLICATING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ONE VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH ERN IA AT 17Z MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN IND. LASTLY...TOWERING CU ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS N-CENTRAL OH. WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAST-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS/CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS...EACH OF THESE THREAT AREAS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR INCREASED INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. DESPITE LOW SBCAPE /GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG/...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...FAST STORM MOTIONS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY COOLS AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40779009 41908976 41898836 41678700 41418336 41528176 41808064 40378066 39848131 39228242 38988349 38758447 38578571 38418669 38688766 38888855 40098959 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 17:42:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 12:42:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271752.j4RHqtcX000379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271752 NMZ000-271945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271752Z - 271945Z TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VSBL SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE NCNTRL AND SAN MATEO/ZUNI MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTN. RECENT BACKDOOR FRONTS/TSTM EPISODES HAVE ADVECTED HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD TO THE DIVIDE IN RECENT NIGHTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 45F. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL BE SEASONALLY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS. MOREOVER...ENHANCED H5 FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WAS CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL NM DURING THE LATE AFTN HOURS. IF ACTIVITY ACROSS NCNTRL/CNTRL NM CAN BECOME ORGANIZED...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTN. FARTHER EAST...STRATOCUMULUS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL PROBABLY MITIGATE HEATING. THE CAP SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG HERE TO KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT RELEGATED TO FARTHER WEST. ..RACY.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 35590511 34050568 34000694 34900806 35430815 36070695 36950628 36830527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 18:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 13:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271831.j4RIV2MV023462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271830 NMZ000-AZZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MOGOLLON RIM...SERN AZ/SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 271830Z - 272100Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM AND THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SSWWD AND THERE WILL BE RISKS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT ADVECTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WWD BEYOND THE NM DIVIDE AND INTO SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT CONSIDERABLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY THIS AFTN. A PARCEL CHARACTERIZED BY 93/48F TEMP/DEW POINT RESPECTIVELY...RESULTS IN A 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ON THE 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING. SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME SEEM TO POINT TOWARD AN UPSWING IN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTNS. THE TUCSON VWP IS STILL SHOWING 30 KTS OF FLOW AT H5 AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS SHOULD MOVE SSWWD OFF THE RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS EAST OF THE BAJA DISTURBANCE... IF ANY TRAINING CAN OCCUR...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. HERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER AND STORM MOTION COULD BE SLOWER. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS THAN FARTHER N-E IN NM AND A WW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31311107 32021076 32481087 33501092 34571046 34430898 34330818 34020733 33200725 32500758 32160797 31390867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 18:26:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 13:26:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271837.j4RIb0Ct027341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271835 TXZ000-NMZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL NM AND FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 271835Z - 272000Z SLOW MOVING TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SCNTRL NM AND FAR W TX MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RECENT VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX HAS MOVED NWD INTO ERN CHIHUAHUA JUST S OF THE TX BORDER. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND JUST EAST OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS ERN EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND SRN CULBERSON COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY TRACKING NWWD...ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY VERY WELL BE THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT THAN WIND/HAIL. BUT...A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...PRIMARILY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEPER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN PRESIDIO/JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31870711 32450717 33050573 32150451 31640389 31460377 30660351 30150378 30010458 30790486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 19:18:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 14:18:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271928.j4RJSh5u026549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271927 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271927Z - 272130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND INTO WRN IA THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 1915Z...WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST MOVING VORT MAX ROTATING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD/NERN NEB...AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED ACROSS NWRN MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SUSTAINED AXIS OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN A SHORT...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR YKN TO 30W OFK. REGION IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW /40-50KT AT 500MB/ ...RESULTING IN FAST LINE MOVEMENT OF 40-45KT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS NWRN IA THORUGH 2130Z. INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...FAST LINE MOTION AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 35F SUGGEST AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/WRN IA WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WITH THIS LOW-TOPPED SYSTEM. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...PROSPECT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41959797 42459773 42989721 43469636 43379541 42979438 42289391 41349449 41139469 40999499 41019551 41059593 41569740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 19:26:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 14:26:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505271936.j4RJaZk3031042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271934 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271934Z - 272130Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...AND INTO WRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PORTIONS OF WRN/NWRN IA INTO CENTRAL IA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 1915Z...WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAST MOVING VORT MAX ROTATING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD/NERN NEB...AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED ACROSS NWRN MN AND SRN MANITOBA. SUSTAINED AXIS OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN A SHORT...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR YKN TO 30W OFK. VORT MAX IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW /40-50KT AT 500MB/ ...RESULTING IN FAST LINE MOVEMENT OF 40-45KT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN NEB AND WRN/NWRN IA THROUGH 2130Z. INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...FAST LINE MOTION AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 35F SUGGEST AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/WRN IA WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...PROSPECT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH LINE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41959797 42409757 42829656 43199583 43169517 42729389 42179346 41079357 40979404 40819429 41019551 41059593 41569740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 20:11:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 15:11:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272021.j4RKLws9024301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272021 NYZ000-PAZ000-272145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TIER OF NY AND NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337... VALID 272021Z - 272145Z CONTINUE WW. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN REGION OF MID-LEVEL COOLING AND MODERATELY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS S-CENTRAL NY INTO NERN PA. STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 15-20 KT...WITH SOME PROPAGATIONAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUSTAINED MID-LEVEL ROTATION IN LONG-LIVED CELLS. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN SCHUYLER AND STEUBEN COUNTIES IN NY. A RIGHT-MOVING STORM WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER ERN ONTARIO COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN CELLULAR STRUCTURE...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFTS. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40727701 41617754 42417769 42907748 43127691 43457590 43317516 42407442 41977416 41717425 41377539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:25:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:25:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272235.j4RMZgft027782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272234 TXZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272234Z - 280000Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH CELLS THAT MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF MORE CELLS DEVELOP THAN ARE EXPECTED...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED EAST OF WW 338. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA... 34800214 34950264 35860264 36330230 36230041 35270012 34820039 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:40:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:40:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272251.j4RMp3IP001675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272250 CTZ000-NYZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272250Z - 280015Z NARROW AXIS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED NEXT 1-2 HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL CT...INCLUDING GREATER HARTFORD METRO AREA. SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED AREA OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW. SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER FAR WRN CT AT 2240Z WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 35-40KT...REACHING THE RI BORDER AROUND 0030Z. SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE TRACKING ALONG ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE FRONT...WHICH HAS PROPAGATED INLAND TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF HARTFORD...WINDHAM...AND TOLLAND COUNTIES. GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL NEXT 1-2 HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THIS INTERSECTION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS RI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CESSATION OF SEVERE THREAT BY 01Z AS BOW ECHO REACHES THIS AREA. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41827362 41877324 41907276 41897226 41827183 41657183 41507183 41477211 41477247 41467316 41497348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:49:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:49:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272259.j4RMxCgI006090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272234 TXZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272234Z - 280000Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH CELLS THAT MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF MORE CELLS DEVELOP THAN ARE EXPECTED...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED EAST OF WW 338. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA... 34800214 34950264 35860264 36330230 36230041 35270012 34820039  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 27 22:58:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 17:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505272308.j4RN8tLI010856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272250 CTZ000-NYZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272250Z - 280015Z NARROW AXIS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED NEXT 1-2 HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL CT...INCLUDING GREATER HARTFORD METRO AREA. SHORT DURATION AND LIMITED AREA OF THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW. SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER FAR WRN CT AT 2240Z WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 35-40KT...REACHING THE RI BORDER AROUND 0030Z. SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE TRACKING ALONG ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE FRONT...WHICH HAS PROPAGATED INLAND TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF HARTFORD...WINDHAM...AND TOLLAND COUNTIES. GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL NEXT 1-2 HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THIS INTERSECTION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS RI...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CESSATION OF SEVERE THREAT BY 01Z AS BOW ECHO REACHES THIS AREA. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41827362 41877324 41907276 41897226 41827183 41657183 41507183 41477211 41477247 41467316 41497348  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 00:59:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 May 2005 19:59:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505280109.j4S19tGm021748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280108 TXZ000-NMZ000-280245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338... VALID 280108Z - 280245Z A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ERN AND CNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MCS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF NM WHERE SBCAPE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 34840606 33580617 33210488 33680351 35680291 35950367 35650472 35390542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 06:16:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 01:16:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505280626.j4S6QNj3006249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280625 TXZ000-280930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 280625Z - 280930Z AT LEAST TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS OF TSTMS -- INCLUDING MERGING CELLS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z IN FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT. 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL BE COMMON...WITH A FEW LOCALIZED RATES TOPPING 3 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST INTENSE CORES OR AREAS WHERE CELLS MERGE INTO MAIN LINES. 6Z SFC AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM BWD AREA TO MASON COUNTY AND FROM NEAR SJT SWD TO JUST W DRT...THEN SWD ACROSS BORDER TO APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WNW LRD...IN COAHUILA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD 15-25 KT ACROSS AREA FROM DIMMIT/MAVERICK/KINNEY/VAL VERDE COUNTIES NNEWD OVER HILL COUNTRY. FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE...WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE E IS ABSORBED INTO MAIN TSTM LINES. VWP AT DRT SHOWS 30 KT 850 MB LLJ FROM SE...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER SPEEDS AND MORE VEERED FLOW FARTHER SE AND NE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX. THIS YIELDS OPTIMAL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH AREA BETWEEN JCT-ERV-DRT...INCLUDING SRN EDGE OF HILL COUNTRY ALONG BALCONES ENSCARPMENT. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 13-15 DEG C AND 1.5-1.75 INCH PW...CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. NRN BAND WILL HAVE MORE SPORADIC AND MARGINALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH WEAKER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...BUT IS ENTERING OCCASIONALLY RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN HILL COUNTRY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 29280096 30160103 30620086 30800044 30809965 31189917 31829891 31939834 31649779 31319779 30789786 30239804 29759849 29499927 29279959 28179984 28090008 28280029 28540034 28810055 28910062 29130070 29170077 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 06:51:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 01:51:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505280701.j4S71wmJ019929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280700 TXZ000-NMZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX...SMALL PART OF SERN NM CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 280700Z - 280900Z HEAVY RAIN RATES 1.5-2.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 9Z IN AREA FROM EXTREME NRN LEA COUNTY NM EWD ACROSS PORTIONS COCHRAN/LYNN/HOCKLEY/TERRY/YOAKUM/LUBBOCK COUNTIES IN TX. ISOLATED HIGHER RATES BRIEFLY ARE POSSIBLE IN MERGING CELLS AND MOST INTENSE CORES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY TSTMS IS MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS CASTRO/LAMB/NRN COCHRAN/EXTREME SERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AS OF 645Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA. QUASISTATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EVIDENT FROM LYNN COUNTY WWD TO NRN LEA COUNTY...WHERE IT BLENDS WITH N-S ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF LEA COUNTY. IN BETWEEN...SFC MESOANALYSIS - INCLUDING W TX MESONET DATA -- SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM NRN KENT COUNTY WNWWD ACROSS SRN LBB COUNTY...WWD INTO EXTREME NRN LEA COUNTY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MERGE WITH CONFLUENCE LINE AND NRN PORTION OF E-W CONVECTIVE BAND FROM LBB AREA WWD...WHERE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. MODIFIED MAF RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE... CONTRIBUTING TO PW 1.25-1.5 INCH. VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUT VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. THIS AREA ALSO IS INVOF WEAK...SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER WIND TRENDS AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSES FROM NEAR PVW SWWD TOWARD ELP. ASSOCIATED WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA TO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 33240150 33130217 33120295 33240346 33650314 33930271 33930210 33870175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 16:59:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 11:59:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281709.j4SH9UNW011291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281708 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NRN WV PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN PA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281708Z - 281845Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NEXT IN SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WAS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MI AND IND PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS AT MID-DAY...EMBEDDED IN MODEST WLY FLOW REGIME. THOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WRN OH ATTM MAY ROOT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AS DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. THUS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN ADDED THREAT TO HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME. ATTM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLD GIVEN THE WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY. ..RACY.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 38968384 40528410 41198359 41598292 41788069 40957994 40138040 39878087 39168235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 17:09:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 12:09:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281719.j4SHJ4Cg015217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281718 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-281845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN VA...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE...CNTRL MD AND DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281718Z - 281845Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREATS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTN. RADAR LOOPS/WATER VAPOR INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL PA...WITH THE TAIL-END MOVING ACROSS NRN VA. THOUGH MOST OF CNTRL PA/WRN MD IS STABLE GIVEN LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN... BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN VA INTO SERN PA. ENHANCED FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL MD INTO NRN VA. THOUGH THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LOW...COMBINATION OF HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW AND GIVE DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF BALTIMORE...ACROSS SERN PA AND INTO PARTS OF SWRN NJ THROUGH 21Z. ..RACY.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38977773 39537719 40047722 40337635 40707599 40757515 40287469 39547483 38597582 38597687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 17:25:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 12:25:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281735.j4SHZ9bU022022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281734 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281734 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-281930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...S-CENTRAL NEB...AND NERN/ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281734Z - 281930Z ONGOING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN KS WWD INTO NERN/ERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE NEEDED. AT 17Z...NRN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS INFERRED FROM GLD VAD WIND PROFILE...IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN KS...AND ALONG A NW-SE LINE FROM 30S LBF TO 10S CNK. THIS AREA IS ALSO LOCATED ON SWRN PERIPHERY OF UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE A MODERATE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXISTS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE 6KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE KS/S-CENTRAL NEB BORDER. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN KS INTO ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING LESSENS SURFACE-BASED CIN. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38950004 38880118 38660225 38620311 38570380 38660428 39060444 39240448 39550447 39930419 40200383 40580314 40800257 41000111 40749948 40459835 39809677 39439642 38979634 38799671 38909742 39029852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 18:32:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 13:32:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505281842.j4SIgEWR019563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281841 COZ000-NMZ000-282045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281841Z - 282045Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NERN NM AND ERN CO DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 1830Z...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS LESSENING RAPIDLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EWD ACROSS SERN CO. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR DEN TO LIC TO IML...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING TOWERING CU AND INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM 40SW DEN SWD INTO FAR NRN NM WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ENHANCE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NERN NM NWD TO ALONG THE PALMER RIDGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY 35-45KT...AND SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. RATHER LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38780497 39750481 39770408 40270301 40330248 40080223 37790219 36180387 36030536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 20:48:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 15:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282058.j4SKwRVh011356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282057 TXZ000-282300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282057Z - 282300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX...NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING MCS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION 40E ACT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING TROPICAL AIR AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT LIKELY ENHANCED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR IS MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY RUC TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY WITH MOST OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. STRONGER CORES MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS PROVIDED INFLOW CONTINUES TO TAP TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE SOUTH. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30939845 31449778 32089713 32229634 32229560 31689516 31059498 30449535 30339573 30499650 30499715 30349779 30299837 30659867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 21:19:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 16:19:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282129.j4SLTXVo023018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282128 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-282300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS....AND THE CENTRAL/WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...340... VALID 282128Z - 282300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WITH BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TRACKING GENERALLY SEWD AT 20-25KT. THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN KS. CONVECTION ACROSS ERN CO WILL GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER BETTER MOIST INFLOW AS IT MIGRATES SEWD INTO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD INTO SWRN KS AT THE PRESENT TIME. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL WATCH AREA WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 339 FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN KS. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH GIVEN LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THREAT OF TORNADOES...BUT MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 38550334 39210248 39710156 39860068 39650036 39120037 38330023 37530076 36750160 36590222 36470299 36120351 36040458 36110555 37000526 38310446 38410416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 22:43:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 17:43:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282253.j4SMrgAI023748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282252 ORZ000-290015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN ORE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282252Z - 290015Z SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN ORE. AS THE STORMS SPREAD NNWWD...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW MOVING EWD INTO NRN CA. A CLEAR SLOT IS EVIDENT EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE RISING TEMPS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AS CELLS INITIATE OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS AROUND -16C) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE CONSIDERING 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM EAST OF THE CASCADES. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...PQR... 43242304 43812288 44322185 43591967 42971933 42421963 42102021 42262135 42922271 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 28 23:32:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 18:32:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505282342.j4SNgvPv007186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282341 TXZ000-290145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282341Z - 290145Z POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 10N TPL TO 10N JCT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DRT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR SJT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EWD AT 30-35KT AND AWAY FROM QUASI-STATIONARY MCV NEAR THE TX/SERN NM BORDER. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FASTER PROPAGATION OF THIS LINE ALONG E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THIS AXIS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT ALSO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF FORWARD PROPAGATION OF EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE CAN INCREASE. SOME TOWERING CU HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG REMAINDER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK AND IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE STORMS. MEANWHILE...MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG EXIST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE STRONGER CELLS MAY PERSIST INTO THE U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29750212 30240121 30910053 31580054 32240031 32439979 32009922 31689868 31539775 31129673 30789738 30249804 29069888 28509929 28239978 28340031 29110076 29470134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 01:10:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 20:10:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290120.j4T1KlJO005799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290119 TXZ000-290245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290119Z - 290245Z CELLS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC PRESSURE TROUGH AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING FOR SCNTRL TX SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28250014 29170078 29740061 30299963 30119837 28959805 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 01:37:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 20:37:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290147.j4T1lml9014951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290147 KSZ000-290245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0847 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341... VALID 290147Z - 290245Z REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 341 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO WATCH EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OR REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN STRENGTH...DESPITE A SLOW INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA. MODIFIED 00Z DDC SOUNDING FOR OBSERVATIONS AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN PORTION OF WW 341 INDICATES MARGINAL MUCAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF AN INVERSION PRESENT ON BOTH THE DDC AND AMA SOUNDINGS AROUND 700 MB...OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 341 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC... 37930091 37580145 37390195 37040201 37050129 37049993 37830007 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 02:59:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 21:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290309.j4T39e30010765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290308 TXZ000-290445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343...344... VALID 290308Z - 290445Z SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SCNTRL TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S F WHICH ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. THIS WILL AID MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES EWD ACROSS SOUTH TX SHOWN BY THE RUC. ALTHOUGH...500 MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A HAIL THREAT WITH THE LINES GRADUALLY MOVING EWD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. CELLS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASING ISOLATED DUE TO AN CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28369937 30589879 31499844 31889765 31279697 28409818 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 03:16:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 May 2005 22:16:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290326.j4T3QGT7016943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290325 LAZ000-TXZ000-290500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA...FAR EAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342... VALID 290325Z - 290500Z A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL LA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM THE NRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO CNTRL LA AND ACROSS SRN MS. A CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PRESENT WITH THE LINE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LINE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF WW 342...DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION MAY CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... 30839346 31309380 32149368 32139252 31729217 31119231 30889257 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 05:47:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 00:47:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290557.j4T5vukX001569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290557 TXZ000-290730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL...SE AND DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... VALID 290557Z - 290730Z TWO BOW-SHAPED MCS ARE MERGING ACROSS WW 345 AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS S TX...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG I-10 EWD TOWARD HOU...AND FROM MID TX COAST AS FAR N AS CLL. MAIN THREAT REMAINS OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS. SRN BOW IS CATCHING UP WITH LONGITUDINAL POSITION OF NORTHERN ONE...AND COMBINED MCS MAY EXIT WW AS EARLY AS AROUND 730Z. ADDITIONAL WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SE TX. CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED SUBSEVERE GUSTS OF UNDER 50 KT WHILE PASSING ACROSS OBSERVATION SITES AROUND...S AND SW OF SAT...HOWEVER SMALL POCKETS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SFC WINDS STILL MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEG F ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE -- ANALYZED ROUGHLY E-W THROUGH CLL TO ABOUT 20 N LCH. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED CRP/LCH RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG BUT ALSO CONSIDERABLE CINH OF OVER 100 J/KG. THIS INDICATES STRONG FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW EDGE AND RESULTANT FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL BE NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN TSTMS AS THEY APCH SE TX. LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY ARE SLIGHTLY LARGER ACROSS DEEP S TX...BUT WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FORCING. STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT EXISTS WITH ACTIVITY S OF WW 345 AND SE LRD...MOVING EWD ACROSS LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD CRP AREA AND NRN PADRE ISLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29529439 28899531 28339638 27899693 27369728 27029736 26669804 26579916 26839930 26919939 27069947 27139932 27289917 27549916 27709914 27959869 27989892 30769832 30759663 30709441 30649400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 09:03:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 04:03:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505290913.j4T9DMA5009792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290912 TXZ000-291115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346... VALID 290912Z - 291115Z AS OF 9Z...APEX OF BROADLY ARCHING BOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 35 KT TOWARD GLS AREA. SOME WEAKENING TREND EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS...AND WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED IF THESE TENDENCIES CONTINUE. EXPECT ANY REMAINING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAINLY S OF I-10...ACROSS PORTIONS BRAZORIA/FT BEND/SRN HARRIS/GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT AREA TO HIGH ISLAND. AIR MASS IN INFLOW REGION CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN 11-15 DEG C RANGE -- CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. VWP DATA FROM HGX INDICATES ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VEERING TO SUPPORT 200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...ALTHOUGH LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTIVE FORCING SHOULD MINIMIZE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND MAINTAIN BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...STRONG CINH REMAINS OVER REGION AND FORCING MAY NOT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALONG OUTFLOW EDGE TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27909680 29949680 30979446 28979448 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 12:29:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 07:29:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291239.j4TCdSrm022096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291238 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291238Z - 291445Z MCS REMAINS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WIND DAMAGE THREAT FROM BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. ALSO...MORE DISCRETE STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN LA AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN MS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS DECELERATING AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS TIER OF MS COUNTIES FROM AMITE EWD THROUGH MCB AREA TO GREENE COUNTY. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY FARTHER W ACROSS CENTRAL LA TO NEAR BEAUREGARD/VERNON PARISH LINE. ALTHOUGH TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN MOIST SECTOR ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM SRN MS ACROSS SRN LA...SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NEAR TERM MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH ACTIVITY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ARE GREATEST. AMBIENT SHEAR S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND E OF CONVECTION OVER WRN LA IS RELATIVELY WEAK BASED ON VWP/RAOB DATA FROM LCH/SIL. HOWEVER...SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY MID-MORNING...SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 DEG F AND INLAND TEMPS RISING PAST 80 DEG F WITH STRONG INSOLATION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN LA...AHEAD OF TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...EJECTING NEWD FROM MEX OVER DEEP S TX. ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29559319 30279323 30779324 30969314 31159266 31529052 31608904 31548859 31368840 30908837 30578849 29978947 29419103 29249234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 15:41:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 10:41:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291551.j4TFpNBt002719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291548 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291548 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347... VALID 291548Z - 291715Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MS... DIURNAL HEATING MAY BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPWARD EVOLUTION OF ONGOING MCS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN MS. REGIONAL RADAR DATA CLEARLY DEPICTS A MVC OVER WCNTRL LA...NEAR SABINE COUNTY...WITH A BROADENING ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO SERN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OVERALL FORWARD PROPAGATION. AT THIS TIME LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY AS MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND INTENSIFY. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32099219 32228931 30338817 29769094 30759172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 16:38:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 11:38:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291648.j4TGmB88026614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291647 TXZ000-291745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 291647Z - 291745Z ...A MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX... THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN TX AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATS INLAND. 1630Z DAY1 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29549773 29899608 29129509 27619723 28159856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 17:48:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 12:48:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291758.j4THwnIl027376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291756 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...FAR SERN CO...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291756Z - 292000Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF SERN CO/NERN NM AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME. AT 1730Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM TAD TO 25N CAO TO EHA. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NM...AND INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS PRESENTLY IN THE 50S SHOULD MIX DOWN GIVEN GENERALLY DIFFUSE SURFACE WIND FIELD. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND SPREADING OFF THE FOOTHILLS....WITH BRIEF STRONG CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED. DEVELOPING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F OR GREATER MAY ALSO YIELD STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 10-15 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37450529 37500448 37210402 37070339 37140254 37080211 36700200 35520193 34930206 34810231 34910417 35230496 35450538 35890570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 18:30:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 13:30:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291840.j4TIeSM7012801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291839 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-292045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV...S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID...AND NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291839Z - 292045Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID...NERN NV...AND INTO NWRN/NRN UT. REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SLOW-MOVING...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NWRN NV AND NERN CA IS SPREADING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NERN GREAT BASIN. LARGE-SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX AS UPPER LOW MIGRATES EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING TOWERING CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NV AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF 1830Z NEAR THE NV/ID BORDER. UVV IN THIS AREA IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS NWD INTO S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED/LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... 40051499 41491554 42431675 43111670 43311613 43341515 42861390 42301280 41271162 40821136 40521144 40201232 40071355 40151420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 18:34:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 13:34:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291844.j4TIiKB4014423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291842 TXZ000-292015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PLAINS OF SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291842Z - 292015Z ...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY... RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS WASHING OUT...BUT STILL DISCERNABLE FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST...ARCING TO THE NORTH OF VCT. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS SPREADING NWD WITH MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. IT APPEARS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY OVER VICTORIA AND JACKSON COUNTIES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT HOURS OR SO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN TX. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER VORT REMAINS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...SHEARING EWD TOWARD LRD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/SERN TX. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 29299867 30229487 29099496 27699771 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 19:25:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 14:25:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505291935.j4TJZKRn002864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291934 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-292030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...WRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348... VALID 291934Z - 292030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL NOT BE EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM INTO AL... LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS MS/SRN AL...WITH MVC LOCATED JUST NW OF JAN. DOWNSTREAM SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS DRAPED E-W ACROSS AL AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON SPREAD NORTH OF WIND SHIFT WHERE BUOYANCY IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. WW WILL NOT BE EXTENDED INTO AL. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... 33549052 33498792 31328633 30698774 32298939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 20:40:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 15:40:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292050.j4TKo4d0000779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292048 TXZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292048Z - 292215Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX... THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ALONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHIFT FROM EAST OF SJT TO WEST OF SEP. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTENING ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR INTO CNTRL TX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS FROM MCLENNAN COUNTY...SWWD TO LLANO COUNTY WHERE AN INTENSIFYING UPDRAFT IS NOTED. AIRMASS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ALONG THIS SRN WIND SHIFT AND WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTI-CELL OR PERHAPS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30790014 32249819 32379650 31419585 29929930 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 21:31:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 16:31:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292141.j4TLffm4021546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292140 TXZ000-292315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292140Z - 292315Z STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. BROAD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM BROWN AND SAN SABA COUNTIES THROUGH MCCULLOCH COUNTY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO INTERSECT A WEAK STATIONARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KERR COUNTY NEWD TO BURNET COUNTY WHERE ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTM CELLS ARE NOW DEVELOPING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAK CAP WILL FUEL ADDITIONAL INTENSE MULTICELL CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29929902 29559987 30969970 32129841 32599602 31489565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 23:11:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 18:11:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292321.j4TNLlKl025290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292320 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-300045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...350... VALID 292320Z - 300045Z STRONG STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WATCH 348 FROM THE MS RIVER TO SCNTRL MS AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS IS LIFTED ATOP RESIDUAL COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF GREATER CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS AN AREA OF VIGOROUS ACTIVITY ACROSS WILKINSON...FRANKLIN AND AMITE COUNTIES IN SWRN MS. CELL IN WILKINSON COUNTY HAS RECENTLY TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WHERE A WEAK SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED. THE BOUNDARY THE CELL APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ALONG COULD BE A SOURCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND...GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATER WITH THIS STORM AS IT TRACKS OVER SWRN AMITE COUNTY AND THEN INTO EAST FELICIAN PARISH IN LA. ANOTHER ROTATING STORM IS NOTED IN RADAR DATA ACROSS SRN FRANKLIN AND NRN AMITE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST. ACROSS WRN PARTS OF LA...ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED ATTM. HOWEVER...MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG GULF BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... AND PRESENCE OF STRONG AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30289526 31809523 31959116 32219165 34209170 31868810 30008814 31018949 30428961 30189546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 29 23:36:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 18:36:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505292346.j4TNkX8v001565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292342 TXZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 349... VALID 292342Z - 300115Z EXTREME INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW/FRONT MERGER ACROSS THE SWRN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 349 WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST VIGOROUS TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS JIM WELLS...LIVE OAK...AND BEE COUNTIES WEST AND NORTH OF CRP. A LARGE HP SUPERCELL WAS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF PADRE ISLAND. AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATES FROM THIS STORM AND EXTENDS SWD...WWD...AND THE NWD. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SLOW APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND NUMEROUS CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL FURTHER AID DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WITH THE CHANCE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27439927 29130017 31439536 29579438  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 00:36:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 19:36:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300046.j4U0kC6G020889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300045 TXZ000-300215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... VALID 300045Z - 300215Z TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS TSTM WATCH 351 THIS EVENING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WATCH MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXISTS WITHIN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH MUCH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 349. DESPITE FAVORABLE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT FROM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MODEST INSTABILITY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING APPEAR TO BE LIMITING TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...APPARENT LEFT-MOVING CELL NOW MOVING ACROSS GRIMES COUNTY IN TORNADO WATCH 349 MAY MOVE INTO ERN PARTS OF WATCH 351... AROUND LEON COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST FROM THIS CELL WAS ALSO MOVING NWD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AND COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NRN COUNTIES IN THE WATCH MAY BEGIN TO BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT STATUS MESSAGE. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31059541 30139859 31369857 32229551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 01:52:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 20:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300202.j4U228qx014231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300201 TXZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0901 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 300201Z - 300330Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 352 WITH BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING SUPERCELLS MOVING FROM BROOKS COUNTY INTO KENEDY COUNTY OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS EXTENDS WWD/NWWD AND INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SRN WEBB COUNTY. HIGH INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO STREAM TOWARD THESE BOUNDARIES AND STORMS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STORM UPDRAFTS. BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR NOTED ON BRO EVENING RAOB WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 26239723 25559898 27469897 28249726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 02:56:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 21:56:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300306.j4U36WhL004672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300305 TXZ000-300400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 349... VALID 300305Z - 300400Z WIDESPREAD DEEP AND INTENSE CONVECTION HAS LIKELY OVERTURNED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS...A FEW INTENSE CELLS/CLUSTERS REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 349. ONE PARTICULARLY LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ACCELERATING OVER FORT BEND AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES RECENTLY. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE HOU AREA AT OVER 45KT THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS SHOWING A TENDENCY TO BOW AND ACCELERATE OVER DUVAL COUNTY IN THE SWRN CORNER OF THE WATCH. YET ANOTHER AREA OF INCREASING CONVECTION WAS ACROSS HAYS AND TRAVIS COUNTIES IN THE NRN PART OF THE WATCH. THESE CELLS MAY MOVE INTO BASTROP COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR. IN ADDITION TO STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS....ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THEAT OF LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING BUT STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCAL AREAS OF ENHANCED POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 04Z. A NEW WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED IF STORMS REMAIN INTENSE...OR ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27359931 29140027 30439763 31429540 29619436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 03:44:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 22:44:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300354.j4U3s7Qd021825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300353 LAZ000-TXZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350... VALID 300353Z - 300430Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX GULF COAST AND SWRN/SRN LA. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A FAST MOVING MCS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HOUSTON AREA AND ADDITIONAL CELLS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE SABINE PASS AREA. WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF SUBSIDING...A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WATCH WILL REPLACE PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 350. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29769291 29719408 30849412 30949363 31029243 30819097 29999089 29449123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 03:59:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 May 2005 22:59:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300409.j4U497QF027654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300408 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300408 TXZ000-300515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 300408Z - 300515Z NUMEROUS CELLS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX LATE THIS EVENING. MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO FAR WRN STARR COUNTY AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WHILE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION AT 05Z. THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 26259725 25979814 26229900 27509897 27949730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 06:24:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 01:24:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300634.j4U6Yc70013562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300633 LAZ000-TXZ000-300800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353... VALID 300633Z - 300800Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SECONDARY TSTM LINE...EXTENDING FROM CALCASIEU PARISH SWD INTO GULF AS OF 0615Z. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...MAIN THREAT IS WITH TSTMS FARTHER ENE. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES...PARTICULARLY WITH PORTIONS OF LEADING BOW ECHO STILL ACCESSING NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW AS IT MOVES INTO ST LANDRY/LAFAYETTE/ST MARTIN PARISHES. THEREAFTER...MUCH OF THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ENTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED INFLOW PARCELS WITH WEAKENING BUOYANCY...INDICATING LIKELIHOOD OF DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY APCHS SWRN CORNER MS. VWP/PROFILER AND RUC WIND DATA INDICATE WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT AS WELL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN TERREBONNE PARISH NWWD ACROSS ST LANDRY...WHERE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY LEADING TSTM COMPLEX. AIR MASS S AND SW OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...WITH MODIFIED 00Z LCH RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPES GENERALLY WITHIN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS REGION -- LARGELY S OF BTR AND E OF WW -- WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29129476 30439473 30969168 30689142 30319115 29989076 29739043 29569022 29209022 29039048 29019080 29129113 29439153 29649167 29229420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 06:46:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 01:46:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300656.j4U6uHBs021277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300655 TXZ000-300830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 300655Z - 300830Z PRIMARY MULTICELL CLUSTER IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS WILLACY/EXTREME SRN KENEDY/ERN HIDALGO COUNTIES AS OF 645Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ITS OWN OUTFLOW HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MOST REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BASE VELOCITY DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS AOA 50 KT. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE PADRE ISLAND -- MAINLY OVER AND S OF MANSFIELD CUT -- WHILE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH CAMERON AND SERN HIDALGO COUNTIES. VERY NARROW AREA OF 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE -- ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC -- MAY AID DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CAMERON COUNTY BEFORE BOUNDARY MOVES PAST BRO. CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER SERN STARR/WRN HIDALGO COUNTY -- AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W IN MEX -- MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS IT MOVES OVER OUTFLOW POOL...GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE POSSIBLE ABOVE RESULTANT STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...WIND THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. ONCE OUTFLOW MOVES S OF RIO GRANDE...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN. GIVEN EXPECTED DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AFTER ABOUT 8Z...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25919877 27249855 27249692 25919714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 08:52:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 03:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300902.j4U92FLl006018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300859 NCZ000-SCZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300859Z - 301100Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VRY NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BAMBERG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES SC...BEFORE 11Z. WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF ISOLATED POTENTIAL COVERAGE AND SMALL AREA INVOLVED. TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN CAE AND BARNWELL COUNTY AS OF 845Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD PRIMARILY N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED ENE-WSW ACROSS REGION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NC TO ABOUT 20 SSW MYR...20 N CHS...VDI...40 NNW TLH. BAROCLINIC GRADIENT IS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR ACTIVITY MOVING ATOP COOL/RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS N. ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG/S OF FRONT AND INTERACT WITH IT MAY HAVE BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE MOVING ATOP STABLE LAYER...GIVEN ENHANCED SHEAR APPARENT ALONG FRONT AND NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO ITS S. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN 70S F -- ACROSS SC COASTAL PLAIN S OF FRONT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...HOWEVER HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE ENLARGED ENOUGH ALONG BOUNDARY FOR AROUND 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33258137 33558054 33687972 33897857 33637840 33167907 33138012 32908099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 08:59:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 03:59:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300909.j4U99RkQ009701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300908 TXZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 300908Z - 301015Z ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING FINAL SCHEDULED HOUR OF WW HAS BEEN REDUCED TO THAT WITH ONE LARGE/COMPLEX TSTM COVERING MOST OF SRN HIDALGO COUNTY. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND 61 KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT MFE AT 838Z. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD 20-30 KT -- FOLLOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED ALONG OR JUST A FEW MILES S OF RIO GRANDE. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS 70 F AND MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. ENOUGH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SERN HIDALGO/SRN CAMERON COUNTIES THAT WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTMS THROUGH EXPIRATION...AND MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO 11Z IF NEEDED FOR CAMERON COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25919877 27249855 27249692 25919714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 09:06:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 04:06:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300916.j4U9G5LB012529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300859 NCZ000-SCZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 300859Z - 301100Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VRY NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BAMBERG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES SC...BEFORE 11Z. WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF ISOLATED POTENTIAL COVERAGE AND SMALL AREA INVOLVED. TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN CAE AND BARNWELL COUNTY AS OF 845Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD PRIMARILY N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED ENE-WSW ACROSS REGION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NC TO ABOUT 20 SSW MYR...20 N CHS...VDI...40 NNW TLH. BAROCLINIC GRADIENT IS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR ACTIVITY MOVING ATOP COOL/RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS N. ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG/S OF FRONT AND INTERACT WITH IT MAY HAVE BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE MOVING ATOP STABLE LAYER...GIVEN ENHANCED SHEAR APPARENT ALONG FRONT AND NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO ITS S. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN 70S F -- ACROSS SC COASTAL PLAIN S OF FRONT. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...HOWEVER HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE ENLARGED ENOUGH ALONG BOUNDARY FOR AROUND 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33258137 33558054 33687972 33897857 33637840 33167907 33138012 32908099  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 09:17:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 04:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300927.j4U9RhM9016789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300908 TXZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 300908Z - 301015Z ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING FINAL SCHEDULED HOUR OF WW HAS BEEN REDUCED TO THAT WITH ONE LARGE/COMPLEX TSTM COVERING MOST OF SRN HIDALGO COUNTY. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND 61 KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT MFE AT 838Z. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD 20-30 KT -- FOLLOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED ALONG OR JUST A FEW MILES S OF RIO GRANDE. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS 70 F AND MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. ENOUGH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SERN HIDALGO/SRN CAMERON COUNTIES THAT WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTMS THROUGH EXPIRATION...AND MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO 11Z IF NEEDED FOR CAMERON COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 25919877 27249855 27249692 25919714  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 09:26:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 04:26:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505300936.j4U9aHYc019996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300935 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0435 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...EXTREME SERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355... VALID 300935Z - 301100Z POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MOVING FROM ASSUMPTION INTO ST JAMES PARISH -- AS OF 915Z -- HAVE MIDLEVEL ROTATION AND MAY DEVELOP SMALL BOW. AIR MASS E OF THIS ACTIVITY...ACROSS MSY AREA TO WRN PORTION OF MS COAST -- IS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...HAVING BEEN ONLY INDIRECTLY AFFECTED BY LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER GULF TO ITS S. SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F ARE EVIDENT...BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APCHG 8 DEG C/KM...YIELDING MUCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG AND SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...MS COASTAL AREAS E OF WW 355 MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW IF ACTIVITY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN EXTENSIVE AND COMPLEX AREA OF TSTMS OVER COASTAL SERN LA...WHERE SBCAPES MAY EXCEED 2000 J/KG AWAY FROM OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE...WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVER SERN LA...STABILIZING AIR MASS TO ITS W. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29588939 29459155 30899155 31028939 30928898 30818862 30708838 30538831 30288838 30218861 30168885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 11:07:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 06:07:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301117.j4UBHqKZ030778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301117 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...EXTREME SERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355... VALID 301117Z - 301215Z REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z. POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS EVIDENT AS OF 11Z OVER ST TAMMANY PARISH...SWD OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EWD ALONG I-12/I-10 CORRIDOR PAST SIL AND INTO PORTIONS HANCOCK/PEARL RIVER COUNTIES MS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY IS INDICATED ALONG COAST. ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS...ROOTED 2-3 KFT AGL. MARGINAL EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 30-35 KT ARE DERIVED FROM SIL VWP AND RUC KINEMATIC PROFILES. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY EXTEND EWD FROM WW ACROSS COASTAL MS COUNTIES AFTER WW EXPIRES...HOWEVER...PRIND POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW. AREAS E OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DIABATIC HEATING -- FILTERED THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY FROM GULF TSTMS -- GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. MORE DISCUSSION ON THAT REGIME IS FORTHCOMING IN 13Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29588939 29459155 30899155 31028939 30928898 30818862 30708838 30538831 30288838 30218861 30168885 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 12:05:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 07:05:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301215.j4UCFdhQ025128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301214 UTZ000-301345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301214Z - 301345Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS I-15 CORRIDOR FROM SLC SWD TOWARD EXTREME ERN JUAB COUNTY. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS SMALL BAND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER ERN TOOELE COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TOWARD SLC AREA 20-25 KT...WITH SOME ACCELERATION POSSIBLE. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD CORE REGION OF UPPER LOW...WHERE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE CHANEL IMAGERY INDICATES LOW MOVING FROM ERN NV INTO WRN UT ATTM...AND ASSOCIATED DPVA FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD MORE OF CENTRAL/NRN UT AS MORNING PROGRESSES. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS W OF WASATCH FRONT...INDICATING MAIN THREAT THERE WILL BE LARGE HAIL. A FEW POTENTIALLY DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS -- ABOVE ROUGHLY 6000 FT -- WHEN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO TERRAIN THAT EXTENDS UPWARD INTO MOST UNSTABLE LAYER. PENDING OBSERVED SLC RAOB...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPE 250-400 J/KG...ROOTED IN 600-650 MB PRESSURE LAYER. 30-40 KT SHEAR IS EVIDENT THROUGH CLOUD BEARING LAYER...AND HAIL THREAT IS ENHANCED WITH MIDLEVEL ROTATION IN ANY TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC... 39271207 39661224 40281237 40751217 40971197 41061173 41021153 40841147 40361139 39841151 39431170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 15:29:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 10:29:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301539.j4UFdq9u013584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301539 COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-301745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT/WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301539Z - 301745Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH CAPE LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH/ WESTERN COLORADO. AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...CURRENTLY EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA...APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO AND NORTHEAST OF THE PRICE UT/GRAND JUNCTION CO AREAS BY THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. THIS AREA WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF 30 TO 40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC... 40531032 41090904 40740758 39720704 37610788 37160999 37951041 39681080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 15:54:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 10:54:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301604.j4UG40q2025091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301603 FLZ000-301800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301603Z - 301800Z STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS IS DESTABILIZING WITH HEATING ACROSS INTERIOR AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE STORMS AS EARLY AS 18-21Z. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK...AND PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... 25188083 25968072 26408103 26778122 27298086 27768056 27918049 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 16:23:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 11:23:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301633.j4UGXftQ004913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301632 NMZ000-COZ000-301830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL CO/N CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301632Z - 301830Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY AS EARLY AS 18-19Z TIME FRAME. THICK LOW-CLOUD COVER NORTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOUTH OF FRONT...SOUTH/WEST OF PUEBLO AND LA JUNTA CO...INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION. CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS/IMMEDIATELY TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON. CAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH EXIT REGION OF 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... 37740713 38280680 38640593 38180558 37680476 37390400 36840363 36150386 35730499 35870619 36300672 36930680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 18:24:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 13:24:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301834.j4UIYbZJ026239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301833 COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-302030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356... VALID 301833Z - 302030Z CONTINUE WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL UTAH...WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS TAKING ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EASTERN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY END ACROSS UTAH BY 20-21Z...WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AND RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHIFTING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...RIW...GJT...SLC... 40531032 41090904 40740758 39210645 37470708 36910890 37540958 39110970 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 18:39:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 13:39:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301849.j4UInoCS001825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301848 LAZ000-TXZ000-302045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 301848Z - 302045Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...AND BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIR MASS ACROSS SERN TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY NOW DECAYING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC SUGGEST 100MB MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY IN PLACE AT 18Z. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF GALVESTON BAY SWWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER JUST SE OF CLL COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 20-25KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.8-2 IN/ AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29489467 29649402 29749324 29579250 29709162 30159148 30649162 30999176 31319218 31519291 31739500 31499559 30899618 30319621 29369572 28919538 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 19:17:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 14:17:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505301927.j4UJR6j6018997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301925 FLZ000-GAZ000-302130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH FL AND S-CENTRAL/SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301925Z - 302130Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN FL AND S-CENTRAL INTO SERN GA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DECAYING ACROSS THIS REGION CURRENTLY...WITH BAND OF MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /35-40KT AT 500MB/ ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA. WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ELONGATED WSW-ENE BANDS OF TOWERING CU EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS STORMS INTERACT WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS TRACK EWD AT 20-25KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31218366 31438305 31658216 31628161 31428140 30598144 30038132 29788133 29498150 29388197 29388246 29698297 29998346 30158359 30478365 30928382 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 19:56:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 14:56:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302006.j4UK6bpa002679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302005 NMZ000-302200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/SE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302005Z - 302200Z WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS APPEARS PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGER MID/ UPPER FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO NORTH OF REGION...ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT STRONGER FLOW IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW MEXICO BY 31/00Z. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR...SUPPORTING RISK OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ..KERR.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34460523 35070425 34700386 33550382 32770422 32370512 32340584 33150567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 22:36:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 17:36:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302246.j4UMkGTN029785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302245 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357... VALID 302245Z - 310045Z VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR FAVORABLE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN SERN CO SSEWD ACROSS COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NERN NM...AND FURTHER EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. STRONG INSTABILITY WAS STREAMING NWWD ACROSS A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS SERN CO. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 45KT WAS TRAVERSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS ROTATING TSTMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED BY STORM UPDRAFTS CROSSING THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN TORNADOES. EVEN THOUGH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY ONCE CELLS MOVE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35250295 35250542 38500465 38430205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 22:48:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 17:48:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302257.j4UMvvFm001219@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302257 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-310000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO AND WRN PARTS OF NEB/KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302257Z - 310000Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS MOST OF NERN CO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WRN NEB AND WRN KS WITHIN THE HOUR. VERY STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER CNTRL CO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. RESULTANT TSTMS WILL BE FUELED BY LOW STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED SPREADING NWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY ALL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS HAILSTORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38540191 38590468 41000454 41040148 38410173 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 23:30:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 18:30:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302340.j4UNei42015090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302245 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-310045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357... VALID 302245Z - 310045Z VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR FAVORABLE OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES IN SERN CO SSEWD ACROSS COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NERN NM...AND FURTHER EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. STRONG INSTABILITY WAS STREAMING NWWD ACROSS A COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS SERN CO. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 45KT WAS TRAVERSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS ROTATING TSTMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED BY STORM UPDRAFTS CROSSING THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN TORNADOES. EVEN THOUGH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY ONCE CELLS MOVE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35250295 35250542 38500465 38430205  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 30 23:37:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 18:37:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505302347.j4UNlKJU017384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302257 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-310000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO AND WRN PARTS OF NEB/KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302257Z - 310000Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS MOST OF NERN CO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WRN NEB AND WRN KS WITHIN THE HOUR. VERY STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER CNTRL CO ATTM IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. RESULTANT TSTMS WILL BE FUELED BY LOW STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED SPREADING NWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORCING...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY ALL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS HAILSTORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38540191 38590468 41000454 41040148 38410173  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 01:48:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 20:48:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310158.j4V1wDWG029539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310157 COZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358... VALID 310157Z - 310300Z A COUPLE OF BANDS OF STRONG TSTMS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 358 THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER WRN/CNTRL CO ATTM. EVENING RAOB FROM DNR SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GIVEN INTENSITY OF DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL WILL LIKELY BE NEARER THE NRN EXTENT OF THE NARROW SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS...ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE WATCH. WRN PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT STATUS MESSAGE AS COLD FRONT REFORMS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38460282 38340451 40860508 40840320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 02:40:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 21:40:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310250.j4V2oS8P017484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310249 NMZ000-310415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0949 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... VALID 310249Z - 310415Z A NUMBER OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 359. IN ADDITION TO LONE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SERN CHAVES COUNTY...A CELL MERGER WILL SOON OCCUR ON THE BORDER OF NRN CURRY AND SERN QUAY COUNTY WHERE LEFT-MOVING CELL WILL ENCOUNTER A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING ESEWD. IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND ACTIVITY REACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ... 35310481 35290307 32910324 32910497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 04:37:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 23:37:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310447.j4V4lF3E026249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310445 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-310545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...TX AND OK PNHDLS...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...359...360... VALID 310445Z - 310545Z VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SERN CO. THIS FORCING WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE ELEVATED BOWING SEGMENT OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST TOWARD THE WRN KS BORDER AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM AND GIVEN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS KS...ONLY A SMALL HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY EXIST AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH....ACROSS VALID AREAS OF WATCH 360...STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE CONGEALED INTO A SMALL MCS FROM AMA AREA SWWD TO CVS AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THIS CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FROM UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM...SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WATCH 360 AND ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT PRESENT. AN ISOLATED LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL PERSISTS OVER NERN LEA COUNTY NM AND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS STORM...WATCH 359 WILL EXPIRE AT 06Z. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT OF ISOLATED STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS SERN NM AS UPPER FORCING MOVES EAST AND ACTS ON RESIDUAL WARM/MOIST AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF LINCOLN...DE BACA...AND CHAVES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AFTER WATCH 359 EXPIRES AT 06Z. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 33000195 32930377 32960460 34640413 35230332 38290282 38320391 38840366 39700295 38330258 38330111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 06:23:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 01:23:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310633.j4V6XB74028428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310632 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-310800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... VALID 310632Z - 310800Z BOW ECHO OVER PORTIONS RANDALL/SWISHER COUNTIES TX AS OF 615Z MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES ESEWD TOWARD CDS AREA...ALONG ISODROSOTHERMAL GRADIENT ANALYZED IN 00Z 850 MB CHART. ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO MAY CONTINUE WITHIN PRESENT WW AREA AFTER SCHEDULED 8Z EXPIRATION. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD/INTENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CROSS NM BORDER INTO SWRN PORTIONS WW -- INCLUDING SUPERCELL THAT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS COCHRAN COUNTY. LATTER STORM PRODUCED REPORT OF 2 INCH HAIL IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM DURING PAST HALF HOUR. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING CINH WITH SEWD EXTENT...AS EVIDENT IN BOTH MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS...AND IN DISSIPATION TREND OF FORMER LEA/GAINES COUNTY STORM FARTHER S. ELSEWHERE...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS LAA AREA AND REMAINDER PROWERS/BACA COUNTIES...WHERE SMALL POCKET OF ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG APPEARS TO REMAIN BEHIND EARLIER ACTIVITY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RATHER SEWD TOWARD SW KS. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH ACROSS SOME AREAS OF WW THAT HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZE4D BY TX PANHANDLE MCS...THAT WW MAY BE CLEARED OVER PORTIONS NWRN TX AND WRN OK PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM TSTMS DEVELOPING ATOP COLD POOL OVER ERN NM -- INVOF I-40 -- AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO TX PANHANDLE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 33000195 33000364 38300283 38320099 35090161 34930084 34750016 34599997 34369993 34030011 33000194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 08:17:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 03:17:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505310827.j4V8R8Gv007517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310826 FLZ000-311100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL W COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 310826Z - 311100Z NUMEROUS TSTMS OFFSHORE FL W COAST ARE FCST TO MOVE INLAND GENERALLY FROM FMY-CTY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE THREAT INTENSE/ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN GULF N ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OPTIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN GULF. GREATEST CAPE ACTUALLY IS INDICATED BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY -- OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LOOP CURRENT WHERE AIR-SEA EQUILIBRIUM MAXIMIZES BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY UNTIL IT MOVES ONSHORE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F REMAIN COMMON. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPES APCHG 2000 J/KG ALONG COASTLINE...DROPPING MARKEDLY TO UNDER 1000 J/KG INLAND WHERE SFC DIABATIC COOLING HAS STABILIZED AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK...TBW VWP SHOWS OFFSHORE/LAND-BREEZE FLOW HELPING TO ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT BACKED FLOW AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR GROUND LEVEL MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND...STORMS INTERACTING WITH LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY. LEWPS/BOW FORMATIONS AND TRANSIENT/RELATIVELY WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MIGHT OCCUR ALONG COASTLINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVERALL...GREATEST HAZARD MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WOULD EXTEND FARTHER INLAND THAN ANY MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST THROUGH LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE...WITH 1.75-2 INCH PW EVIDENT. CELL MERGERS AND ECHO TRAINING WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE... 29358318 29388303 29248285 29058264 28838247 28648246 28318259 28108256 27968241 27678238 27408242 27178228 26898196 26618187 26358183 26318201 26478227 26938269 27798301 28338313 29148328 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 10:24:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 05:24:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311034.j4VAYcKh020854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311033 TXZ000-311200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... VALID 311033Z - 311200Z SEVERE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IN WW...HOWEVER GENERAL/GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. PRIND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z. SERIES OF THREE PRIMARY STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WW AREA. INITIAL STORM -- MOVING TOWARD NRN BORDEN/WRN SCURRY COUNTY...REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH INCREASING CINH WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER LBB COUNTY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN LYNN/CROSBY/SWRN GARZA COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z...WITH MAIN THREAT LARGE HAIL. 1.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED DURING PAST HOUR WITH MIDDLE STORM...AS IT WAS TRANSITIONING FROM SUPERCELL TO SMALL BOW ECHO OVER HOCKLEY COUNTY. ALTHOUGH A FEW ASSOCIATED GUSTS MAY APCH SEVERE LIMITS...PRIND WIND POTENTIAL IS SUPPRESSED BY NEAR-SFC STABILITY...PER SUBSEVERE WINDS IN AVAILABLE DATA FROM 3 MESONET STATIONS OVER WHICH STORM HAS PASSED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER COMBINATION OF RADIATIONALLY STABILIZING NEAR-SFC LAYER AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ACTIVITY FARTHER NW OVER LAMB COUNTY MAY FOLLOW SIMILAR PATH BUT SHOULD BE EVEN MORE ELEVATED...GIVEN ITS TRACK OVER FRESHLY DEEPENED OUTFLOW POOL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32660061 32660302 34730295 34740050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 17:53:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 12:53:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311803.j4VI3ThR003501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311802 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL KS...AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311802Z - 312000Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. AREAS FROM NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERALL THREAT MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE. AT 1745Z...LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 15W LNK TO 15E SLN TO 40E P28 CONTINUES VERY SLOW EWD ADVANCE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK IN ADDITION TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY LIKELY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY NWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SERN NEB. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALIGN ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ALONG THIS AXIS PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE NUMBER OF INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER...A FEW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 37329827 38089803 40169736 41569714 41339659 40959634 40239599 39669583 38879586 38059604 37369630 37099649 36879670 36599679 36369694 36009760 35689802 35499914 35539980 35880018 36140006 36329962 36549905 36879852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 17:56:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 12:56:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311806.j4VI6oRT006280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311805 TXZ000-NMZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311805Z - 312000Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION... RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT. THIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35130447 36000399 35890291 35270172 34740101 33560068 31700129 31360280 33500419 34370442 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 18:00:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 13:00:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311810.j4VIAXNf008922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311802 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL KS...AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311802Z - 312000Z INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. AREAS FROM NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERALL THREAT MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE. AT 1745Z...LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 15W LNK TO 15E SLN TO 40E P28 CONTINUES VERY SLOW EWD ADVANCE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK IN ADDITION TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY LIKELY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY NWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SERN NEB. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALIGN ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ALONG THIS AXIS PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE NUMBER OF INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER...A FEW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 37329827 38089803 40169736 41569714 41339659 40959634 40239599 39669583 38879586 38059604 37369630 37099649 36879670 36599679 36369694 36009760 35689802 35499914 35539980 35880018 36140006 36329962 36549905 36879852  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 18:02:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 13:02:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505311812.j4VICFMQ010180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311805 TXZ000-NMZ000-312000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311805Z - 312000Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION... RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT. THIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35130447 36000399 35890291 35270172 34740101 33560068 31700129 31360280 33500419 34370442  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 20:41:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 15:41:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312051.j4VKphxh024159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312050 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-312245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362... VALID 312050Z - 312245Z WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. MOST SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED SE OF THE AMA AREA ENHANCED BY SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT/INSTABILITY ACROSS AREA. AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG. THUS...COMBINATION OF TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND STRONG INSTABILITY S OF BOUNDARY INDICATES PRESENCE OF ENHANCED LIFT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES ARE MAIN THREAT. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED DRYLINE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH. LATEST 18Z NAM AND RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SIGNAL OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM E CENTRAL NM INTO W TX. RUC FCST MIDLAND SNDG SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 45-55 KT INDICATING AGAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34230477 34770476 35580475 36300472 36840476 36660418 36030238 35500123 35130001 34639998 34189998 33669999 33210002 32779998 32509999 32800075 33160175 33560288 33930383 34160459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 22:25:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 17:25:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312235.j4VMZ1dS018631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312233 TXZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312233Z - 010000Z PORTIONS OF WEST TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY AREAS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KENT AND FISHER COUNTIES SEWD TO COLEMAN...MCCULLOCH...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. WITH INHIBITION NEARLY ELIMINATED AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PERSISTING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. KINEMATIC PROPERTIES STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATING 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS APPARENTLY LIMITING STRENGTH OF 0-1KM SRH WITH ANTECEDENT EFFECTIVE VALUES AOB 100 M2/S2. HOWEVER...VALUES NEAR THE STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE CLOSER TO 150 M2/S2. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND/OR PERHAPS WITH MCS DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32910249 31620187 30670241 30549819 32849986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 22:49:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 17:49:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312259.j4VMxGbT029807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312258 FLZ000-GAZ000-010100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312258Z - 010100Z ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED. TSTM HAVE INCREASED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS LEVY...ALACHUA...AND DUVAL COUNTIES. WHILE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THIS CONDITION MAY BE OFFSET BY STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACH OF BROAD GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST/LOW LFC ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IS TOPPED BY 35 KT WSWLY FLOW. THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. ONE OF TWO OF THESE STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COULD OF HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31128155 30218353 29778360 29138285 29698206 29958126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 22:56:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 17:56:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312306.j4VN6ewW000867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312233 TXZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312233Z - 010000Z PORTIONS OF WEST TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY AREAS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KENT AND FISHER COUNTIES SEWD TO COLEMAN...MCCULLOCH...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. WITH INHIBITION NEARLY ELIMINATED AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PERSISTING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. KINEMATIC PROPERTIES STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATING 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS APPARENTLY LIMITING STRENGTH OF 0-1KM SRH WITH ANTECEDENT EFFECTIVE VALUES AOB 100 M2/S2. HOWEVER...VALUES NEAR THE STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE CLOSER TO 150 M2/S2. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND/OR PERHAPS WITH MCS DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32910249 31620187 30670241 30549819 32849986  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 23:08:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 18:08:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312318.j4VNImFx005567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312258 FLZ000-GAZ000-010100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312258Z - 010100Z ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY TSTMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED. TSTM HAVE INCREASED ALONG WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS LEVY...ALACHUA...AND DUVAL COUNTIES. WHILE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THIS CONDITION MAY BE OFFSET BY STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACH OF BROAD GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN A VERY MOIST/LOW LFC ENVIRONMENT WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IS TOPPED BY 35 KT WSWLY FLOW. THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. ONE OF TWO OF THESE STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COULD OF HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31128155 30218353 29778360 29138285 29698206 29958126  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 23:36:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 18:36:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312346.j4VNkEqC016180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312344 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-010145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362... VALID 312344Z - 010145Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE IN THE WATCH AS MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER CNTRL TX PNHDL HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS. PRONOUNCED MOISTURE AXIS/INSTABILITY AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AS EVIDENCED ON BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR CONTINUES TO FEED STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH. MORE ISOLATED CELLS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH..HOWEVER EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AS OVERALL STORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. PER MD 1091..NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON...SOUTH OF CURRENT WW. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34270474 36880477 36340334 35840306 35630147 35119998 32549997 33160175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 31 23:37:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 18:37:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200505312347.j4VNlBJR016364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312346 TXZ000-OKZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK...NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363... VALID 312346Z - 010115Z WEAKLY ORGANIZED TSTMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SWRN OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NWRN TX THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. LATEST RADAR AND SFC ANALYSIS DATA WAS SHOWING SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL OK APPEARS TO HAVE OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS ALONG AN OUTFLOW FROM ERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY SWWD INTO NERN GRADY COUNTY. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO INTERSECT THE GRADY COUNTY STORM CLUSTER...AND EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CLEVELAND COUNTY. 25-30KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER TLX VWP AND PRC PROFILER WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED IN ORGANIZATION WITH CELL/BOUNDARY MERGERS POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION GIVEN MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY BE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS FROM WILBARGER COUNTY IN NW TX EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER TO TILLMAN COUNTY OK. MOST INTENSE PART OF THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE NEAR AN OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN STOUT UPDRAFTS AS IT SPREADS SEWD THIS EVENING. MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HAIL AND WIND EVENTS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 35219998 35479686 33749684 33529996 WWWW