[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310115 COR
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105...

VALID 310115Z - 310215Z

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ERN IL/WRN IND IN AREAS AFFECTED

ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH
MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD
BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A
NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY
0130Z.

WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY
MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW
LEVEL JET. 

FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL
IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO
MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO
COVER THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...

41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767
41738619 

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