[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301650 
IAZ000-MNZ000-301815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IA/SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103...

VALID 301650Z - 301815Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN IA.
THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM
WRN IL ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. WITH SFC
TEMPS WARMING...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0 C/KM
FROM NRN MO TO NCNTRL IA AND 850 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

40649423 40959486 41269537 41809537 43469493 44289446
44229258 43649251 40919342 

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