[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271253 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-271500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL AND SWRN/SCNTRL GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 96...

VALID 271253Z - 271500Z

VAD WIND PROFILERS/12Z RAOBS INDICATE TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST INTO SRN GA THIS MORNING.
JACKSONVILLE AND PENSACOLA VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW 50 KTS OF FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SIGNIFICANT TURNING/VEERING THROUGH 2KM.
 THE SOUNDINGS AT TLH/JAX DO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A STABLE LAYER...BUT
ANY HEATING WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LAYERS AND MAKE FOR A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...SUPPORTING TSTMS.  ANY TSTM THAT FORMS
WILL HAVE A TORNADO/SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  SEVERAL CELLS WITHIN THE
E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SERN AL AND SWRN GA HAVE SHOWN
ROTATION...BOTH IN THE MID/LOW-LEVELS.

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A BRIEF DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FARTHER SW...THE
COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CLEAR THAT AREA AND 70 SURFACE DEW POINTS
REMAIN.  NEXT STRONG UVV SIGNAL IS SEEN IN RADAR/SATL IMAGERY
CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER.  AS THIS VIGOROUS ASCENT ARRIVES OVER THE
WARM SECTOR...A RAPID DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL FORM OVER THE
LOWER MS VLY NWD INTO SERN MS AND THEN CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. 
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. THUS...ALL FACETS OF
SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INCLUDING
TORNADOES...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

A SECONDARY...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT...THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL EXIST THROUGH 15Z IN A 25NM CORRIDOR FROM KDHN-KABY-55NW KAYS. 
TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING TOWARD THE HIGHER THETA-E AXIS UPSTREAM
ACROSS SCNTRL AL...THEN TRAINING ENEWD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL GA.  THIS
PROCESS MAY LAST A FEW HOURS...CREATING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
SCENARIO.

..RACY.. 03/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29728822 31608662 32348382 32308229 29638435 

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