[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270948 
LAZ000-TXZ000-271115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95...

VALID 270948Z - 271115Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS WS 95 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
A FEW OF THE TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SETTLE ESEWD WITH A CENTER VCNTY KABI AT
0930Z. VWP/PROFILERS DEPICT THE CORE OF THE 80-90 KT H5 JET CURVING
ACROSS SERN TX WITH VIGOROUS UVV IN EXIT REGION OVER THE SABINE RVR
VLY.  THIS HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS THIS MORNING...
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE H85-H7 FRONT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO PULSE AND
HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS.  STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO FORM OFFSHORE SERN TX IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN LIKELY
DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE SURFACE-H85 FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN LA
TOWARD 12Z.  THOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF STORMS CAN BECOME
LONGER-LIVED THAN THEY HAVE BEEN SINCE 06Z...EXPERIMENTAL
LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS VALUES SUGGEST THAT A FEW LEFT-MOVING HAIL
PRODUCING MEMBERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LA LATER THIS MORNING.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY FROM W-E ACROSS THE UPPER
TX COAST AND THE WW WILL BE TRIMMED BY 11Z.

..RACY.. 03/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

28749580 30649584 31339218 29629145 

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