[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270714 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-270845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...THE DEEP SOUTH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...92...93...

VALID 270714Z - 270845Z

TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.  TORNADO WATCHES 91...92...93 AND 94
REMAIN IN TACT AND WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH AS NEEDED.

MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW VCNTY KJAN WITH A TWO WARM FRONTS
EXTENDING EWD...ONE FROM KJAN EWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRATIFORM
RAIN INTO CNTRL GA AND THE PRIMARY FRONT THROUGH SRN AL INTO THE
CNTRL FL PNHDL.  MAIN COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED THROUGH SCNTRL LA AND A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SERN MS/SWRN AL BORDER INTO THE
BOOTHVILLE LA AREA.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN STREAMERS ALONG THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION AND MATURE INTO TSTMS INLAND AS THEY
APPROACH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL AND SWRN GA. 
RECENT TREND IN SURFACE OBS SEEM TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE
SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BOOSTING 0-1KM SRH VALUES.  VWP FROM EOX
EXHIBITS TREMENDOUS HELICITY WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 480 M2/S2.

THOUGH THE 06Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWED A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ERN FL PNHDL MAY BE S OF THE PRIMARY
WARM FRONT...WITH A WEDGE OF SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FARTHER
WEST ACROSS WRN FL PNHDL...CNTRL/SRN AL AND SERN MS...OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

MAIN STORY THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS UPSTREAM AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD.  TSTMS
ARE ALREADY RE-FORMING OVER ERN TX /WITH LEAD STORM NORTH OF HOUSTON
MOVING AT 70 KTS/.  EXPECT MORE STORMS TO FORM FROM SRN MS/ERN LA
AND EXPAND ENEWD INTO WRN FL PNHDL AND SRN AL BY 12Z.  ALL
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE FOR A RENEWED TORNADO THREAT AT THAT
TIME.

FARTHER E...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
OVER FAR SERN GA AND NERN FL AND THE TORNADO WATCH 94 MAY BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

..RACY.. 03/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

30599113 32348978 33618850 34298749 34228489 32918520
31938253 31158101 30048148 29558345 29568674 29899118 

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