[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242123 
FLZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242123Z - 242330Z

...RETRANSMITTED...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HEATING.  HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER.  SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER
CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 03/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056
26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105
25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221