[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241858 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE KS...NE OK...SW MO...NE AR

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 241858Z - 242100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL MAY INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON.

EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR
WESTERLIES IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION
...AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
BY EARLY EVENING.  INFLUENCE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ONGOING WEAK CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
OCCURING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR
40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.

MOISTURE VALUES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE STILL RATHER
LOW...BUT STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY SATURATING
LOW/MID-LEVELS.  CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF BETTER MOISTURE
FROM TEXAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER.
 THIS SHOULD...IN TURN...SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TULSA OK AREA AS EARLY
AS 24/21Z...BEFORE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD WITH
FORCING...INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BY 25/00Z.  MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH/WEST...SURFACE LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED...OR CLOSE TO
SURFACE-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING...IF AT ALL.

..KERR.. 03/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36539641 36919573 37639467 37439318 37089302 36379306
35209402 34779490 34819565 35489676 

WWWW