[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230717 
FLZ000-230915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230717Z - 230915Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
REGION...AND MOVE ONSHORE FL W COAST FROM GULF -- PRIMARILY BETWEEN
LEVY/ALACHUA/PUTNAM/ST JOHNS COUNTIES SWD TO TBW-MLB LINE. 
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.  SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND
NEBULOUS...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SMALL CINH...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TRENDS. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY MAY BE ARRANGED ALONG S EDGE OF LARGE PRECIP PLUME
NOW EVIDENT FROM LEVY COUNTY SWWD OVER GULF...N OF WHICH SFC TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN LOW 60S F.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THAT PLUME WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F...DEW POINTS
APCHG 70 F...AND NEARLY SFC-BASED MUCAPE OF APPROXIMATELY 1500 J/KG.
 TBW VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG FOR
SLIGHT RIGHT--MOVING STORMS AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
 AMBIENT KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE ALSO WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 50-60 KT. 
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG SERN EDGE OF PRECIP PLUME
WHERE BAROCLINICITY IS STRONGEST.

..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

28548346 29358263 29918183 29978135 29458110 29068079
28728055 28478076 28158146 27848271 28008344 28418350 

WWWW