[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230009 
ALZ000-MSZ000-230215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS WRN/CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 230009Z - 230215Z

PORTIONS OF ERN MS...WRN AND CNTRL AL MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH THIS
EVENING IF STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS.

WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT WARM SECTOR OVER MS/AL
HAS SO FAR KEPT TSTM DEVELOPMENT QUITE LIMITED DESPITE OTHER SIGNS
OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WV IMAGERY
DEPICTING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST...AND FCSTS OF
DPVA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL FCSTS WITH ETA...RUC...WRF AND ENSEMBLES
ALL INDICATING STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND CONVECTIVE QPF FROM ECNTRL
MS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL INTO LATE THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...VERY POTENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 50KT WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO FAST MOVING ORGANIZED STORMS
AND A NEW WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA.

..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

34008864 34038776 33878671 32838631 31748609 31218610
31108683 31088807 31078897 32168950 32908853 

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