[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222211 
CAZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222211Z - 230015Z

COLD FRONT FROM NRN SIERRAS SSWWD ACROSS NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY  TO
OFFSHORE S OF MRY.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
FRONT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS.
VAD WINDS AT HNX INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS
WITH HELICITIES UP TO 300 J/KG AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. 
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SBCAPES FROM 300-500 J/KG AT MOST...WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADOES COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES
E/SE ACROSS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEXT 2-4 HOURS.

WITH SUCH LIMITED INSTABILITY...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..HALES.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...

37982082 37792006 36811935 36121920 35581949 35462004
35832082 36232113 36872124