[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221755 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-221930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN AR / NWRN MS / EXTREME SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221755Z - 221930Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ALONG WARM FRONT NEAR SFC
LOW OVER CENTRAL AR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SERN AR. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AIR MASS OVER FAR
NRN MS AND SWRN TN IS STABLE AS OF 18Z BUT WILL DESTABILIZE GIVEN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION.  

GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT...AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE ABOUT 20 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR N OF WARM
FRONT.

..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

33249131 33339162 34139186 34689283 34839325 36029360
35689142 34988914 34158924 33468969 33329004 33279054
33239091 

WWWW