[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221538 
FLZ000-GAZ000-221745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221538Z - 221745Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM FRONT
OVER NRN FL.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER FAR NRN FL / SRN GA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. 

MODIFIED 12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED CAP IS ESSENTIALLY GONE...THE
ONLY DETRIMENT TO RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION BEING POOR LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S.  GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5-7.5 AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ONCE STORMS REACH PEAK INTENSITY /
ORGANIZATION.  

AREA WIND PROFILES INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
TORNADOES...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 100-200 J/KG 0-1KM SRH.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SURFACE
BASED UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID / UPPER 70S. 
THEREFORE...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME.

..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...

28968087 29138169 29408262 31558293 31258126 30798143
29908126 

WWWW