[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180157 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-180700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN MN/WRN WI/NRN IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 180157Z - 180700Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FROM ERN SD TO SWRN WI THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EARLY EVENING RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH OF
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ERN NE TO
NRN IL AT 01 UTC.  LATEST 21 UTC NAMKF AND NCEP SREF PREDICT VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT TO SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH 09 UTC...WITH PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE BECOMING ENHANCED AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NWRN
KS TO ERN NE TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TOWARD CNTRL SD BY 09 UTC WILL FURTHER AID PRECIPITATION RATES IN
WRN SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 06 UTC AND 09 UTC.

LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
THROUGH SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC LAYER AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN MN. 
MESOSCALE REGIONS OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HOUR IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BANDS. ELY/NELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ENSURE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN IA.

..BRIGHT.. 03/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

44569782 44889682 44879581 44599280 44179047 42898800
42478863 42598975 42729082 42939182 43199330 43279409
43459585 43639688 44079787 

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