[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171337 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-171530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171337Z - 171530Z

MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS.
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER
THIS MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S FL FROM NEAR
BOCA RATON WWD TO NEAR NAPLES. A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION N OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN
THE LAST 30 MINUTES. STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY JUST E OF FORT
MEYERS WHERE A BOW-ECHO/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BEEN
OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT AND MAY POSE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SHORT TERM
THREAT. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 03/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

41717080 41457278 43467308 44897176 45447014 45466850
44746817 43307076 

WWWW