[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160036 
TXZ000-160230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160036Z - 160230Z

CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS HIDALGO COUNTY
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES OVER REMAINDER
ERN HIDALGO/CAMERON/SRN KENEDY COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 0230Z.
 WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TIME/SPACE COVERAGE OF
THREAT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK MESOLOW INVOF CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTY
BORDER...LOCATED ON PRONOUNCED INFLECTION POINT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
FRONT IS ANALYZED SWD INTO NERN TAMAULIPAS AND EWD ACROSS PADRE
ISLAND NEAR MANSFIELD CUT.  THIS MESOLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD COAST...GIVEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG AREA
THAT IS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN COAHUILA. 
MESOLOW AND NEARBY SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL MAXIMIZE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT...AS WELL AS STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW THROUGH
ISALLOBARIC FORCING.  WARM SECTOR INFLOW IS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND
WELL-SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO RAOB...WHICH INDICATED MLCAPE ROUGHLY 1300
J/KG.  ALTHOUGH AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
SUPERCELLS...ROUGHLY 65 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 130 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOW
ARE PRESENT AND WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
STORM SCALE PROCESSES MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATION AND
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

26059770 26209795 26349806 26549790 26609760 26599737
26419721 26159715 25989724 26009754 

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