[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131950 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CENTRAL TX/NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131950Z - 132215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL
MS BY 2200Z.

AIR MASS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO MUCH OF MS/AL. PROBLEM ATTM IS THAT CAPPING
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CINH VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 100 J/KG.
 STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW JUST W OF SHV SWWD THRU
CLL AND S OF ERV /S CENTRAL TX/.  ALSO A WARM FRONT  EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER NEWD INTO NWRN AL.  RUN AND AM
MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN INITIATION WITH LATEST RUC BEGINNING OVER
W CENTRAL/CENTRAL MS...THEN BACKBUILDING INTO NERN LA BETWEEN 13/21Z
AND 14/00Z.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS JUST E
OF SURFACE THERMAL AXIS FROM BETWEEN VCT AND HOU NEWD INTO NERN LA. 
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME E CENTRAL TX...FORCING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF
THE SABINE RIVER ENEWD BETWEEN SHV AND IER.  IF MODELS ARE
CORRECT...DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN JAN AND TVR. BUT WOULD
THINK THAT FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP
ACROSS LA.  MAIN THREAT INITIALLY AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

..MCCARTHY.. 03/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

31669070 31509160 31329277 31259428 31719494 32369465
32759451 32849401 32849297 32879173 33009088 33008962
32188988