[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132013 
ALZ000-MSZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS / CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132013Z - 132215Z

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS.  A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING CENTRAL MS...EWD
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  

19Z JAN SOUNDING MODIFIED USING CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
78-80 INDICATE NO INHIBITION WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WIND
PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS
AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW.

GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST
CELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH COLD
OUTFLOW WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.

..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

32658976 33568936 33778845 33938661 33958610 33918563
32378578 32338703 32438890 32598951 

WWWW