From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 04:14:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 23:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503010539.j215dPtF002308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010537 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MASS/NH/SRN VT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 010537Z - 011000Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MASS TO TRANSITION NNEWD ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES COMMON ALONG A CON-PSM-PWM-AUG-BGR-BHB CORRIDOR /INCLUDING I-95/ THROUGH 12Z. ADDITIONALLY...NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AT 05Z...APPROX 985 MB SFC LOW /REF NANTUCKET 44008 BUOY/ CENTERED APPROX 110 S OF ACK...WHICH IS ALREADY 1-4 MB DEEPER THAN 00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WRN EXTENT OF STRONG MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT...THUS PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW. PER 03Z RUC/00Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC LAYER /WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILES BELOW/ SUGGESTS MDT/HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH PERIPHERAL APPROACH OF DRY SLOT...PROXIMITY OF INCREASING /ALBEIT WEAK/ POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MAY FURTHER ENHANCE SNOW RATES...NAMELY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TOWARD 12Z. ADDITIONALLY...AS ALREADY SEEN IN 1-2 KM LAYER OF BOX 88D VAD...03Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 50+ KT 850 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH 09Z/12Z...WITH RESULTANT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 03/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 45077018 45266890 45086712 44786704 44126871 43616999 42757041 41816993 41897176 42007299 42737316 43657222 44527135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 11:47:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 06:47:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503011312.j21DCEYx002906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011311 MEZ000-NHZ000-011745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 011311Z - 011745Z BAND OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION NWD ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING...WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR COMMON. IN ADDITION...INCREASINGLY STRONG NELY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AT 12Z...APPROX 983 MB SFC LOW LOCATED OFF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST ABOUT 100 E ACK. AS SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION NEWD TOWARD COASTAL MAINE THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME/UPPER JET DIV COUPLED WITH REMNANT FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT /600-800 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD TRANSLATION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS NOTED IN 12Z GYX RAOB...09Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NWD EXTRAPOLATION OF VERTICAL PROFILES FEATURING STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE/DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER. IN ADDITION...STRONG NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH SFC WIND GUSTS HAVING ALREADY REACHED 30+ KTS INVOF COASTAL MAINE. IN ACCORDANCE WITH 09Z RUC GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF 50-60 KT 850 WINDS TRANSITIONING NWD ACROSS MAINE THROUGH 18Z...SIMILAR VELOCITIES SEEN IN 1-2 KM LAYERS OF GYX/CBW WSR-88D VADS. ..GUYER.. 03/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 47396819 46936775 45976766 45656771 44236969 43747076 44477111 45277079 46227006 47216947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 19:32:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 14:32:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503032057.j23KvDBf031845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032055 MOZ000-KSZ000-032330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032055Z - 032330Z CONVECTION WAS INCREASING WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTING TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST WV IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD OVER THE MO RIVER VLY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER ERN KS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS LOW-MID 40S F/... MUCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 300-600 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO. CONTINUED QG FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MO THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND ONE-DIMENSIONAL HAILCAST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE MAXIMUM HAILSTONE SIZE AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FROM THESE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 03/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 40029294 38039208 37149308 37079470 37349587 38409596 40029492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 21:16:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 16:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503032241.j23Mf4U1009155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032240 TXZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032240Z - 040015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z TO THE EAST OF LBB/MAF...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR WRN TX...TO THE W/NW OF LBB. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY HIGH BASED...GIVEN LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...AND ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM NRN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TO THE EAST OF LBB...WHERE AN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE EXISTS FROM SRN TX NWD TO SJT AND TO THE WEST OF ABI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING SLY LLJ THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN TX WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO STRONGER AXIS OF INSTABILITY. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 03/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35070128 34279955 31529799 30629912 31330098 32430193 34410201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 21:47:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 16:47:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503042312.j24NCKZZ021477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042311 CAZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042311Z - 050015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS KERN AND WRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SINCE 2230Z FROM KERN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. DESPITE MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 C AT 500 MB/ ARE ATTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE. UNTIL THAT TIME...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 0-1 KM SHEAR AT 20 KT PER EDW VAD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..PETERS.. 03/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...MTR... 34492019 35302058 35932088 36182037 36271906 36121786 35431699 34831639 33841599 32871635 32931713 33611770 34151864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 22:32:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 17:32:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503042357.j24Nv3Lr014084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042355 CAZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042355Z - 050100Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS KERN AND WRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SINCE 2230Z FROM KERN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. DESPITE MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 C AT 500 MB/ ARE ATTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE. UNTIL THAT TIME...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 0-1 KM SHEAR AT 20 KT PER EDW VAD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..PETERS.. 03/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...MTR... 34492019 35302058 35932088 36182037 36271906 36121786 35431699 34831639 33841599 32871635 32931713 33611770 34151864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 5 01:03:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 20:03:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503050227.j252RmjO026318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050226 KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY INTO NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050226Z - 050400Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY AND NWRN TN THROUGH 03-04Z...AND SPREAD ESEWD TOWARD ERN KY AND NRN TN. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND LIGHTNING SINCE 0130Z. AREA VADS SHOWED THE WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENED TO 50 KT AROUND 01Z...INDICATIVE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN IL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO TN COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 03/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35528858 36348938 37028903 37728769 38258496 38478384 37958296 36488321 35918514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 18:30:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 13:30:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503061954.j26JsuTG022962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061953 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NM...FAR WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061953Z - 062200Z ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NM...WEST OF ELP. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN REGION OF WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR WEST TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM BY EVENING. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOTED. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 03/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC... 31370960 33250920 34290751 34410566 33270512 32000503 30880533 31300627 31360738 31320842 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 21:44:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 16:44:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503062309.j26N92mf007480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062308 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB AND EXTREME SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062308Z - 070115Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT FROM N CNTRL AND NERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. EARLY THIS EVENING...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL KS JUST W OF CONCORDIA TO JUST E OF HAYS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW VERY LITTLE CAP...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD AND AS THE BOUNDARY INTERCEPTS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR HAIL. ALSO...20+ LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY AS THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38689848 39939750 40939687 40969543 40159523 38659685 38249823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 01:02:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 20:02:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503070227.j272RRTH027577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070226 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO THROUGH MUCH OF IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070226Z - 070430Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NERN KS...NWRN MO INTO MUCH OF IA. ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD THROUGH KS AND NEB. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SEWD MOVING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION THROUGH NRN MO AND IA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN IA WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY ALSO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 03/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38909647 42019456 43179260 42269066 39919323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 07:07:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 02:07:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503070832.j278WQte002537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070830 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL/ERN AND SRN MO/NRN AR/NE OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070830Z - 071030Z OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN OR NEAR STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK. EVAPORATIVE COOLING...IN LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS BELOW CLOUD BASES...IS ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF THIS RIDGE...SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z. WITH CAP WEAKENED...IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACCELERATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS CONDUCIVE TO HAIL...LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS/LOW CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SIZES. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37059591 37309457 37999306 38729175 39399012 39578919 38888769 38188785 37008863 36418966 36079102 35849314 36099511 36559643 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 07:10:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 02:10:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503070834.j278Yavq003854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070833 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL/ERN AND SRN MO/NRN AR/NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070833Z - 071030Z OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN OR NEAR STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK. EVAPORATIVE COOLING...IN LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS BELOW CLOUD BASES...IS ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF THIS RIDGE...SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z. WITH CAP WEAKENED...IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACCELERATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS CONDUCIVE TO HAIL...LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS/LOW CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SIZES. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37059591 37309457 37999306 38729175 39399012 39578919 38888769 38188785 37008863 36418966 36079102 35849314 36099511 36559643 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 02:38:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 21:38:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080403.j28439WM022725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080402 GAZ000-FLZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SW GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47... VALID 080402Z - 080530Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA. THE HIGHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE SWWD INTO THE NERN GULF MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC OVER GULF COUNTY FL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG ROTATION CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITH STORMS ON THE NRN END OF THE LINE WHERE SURFACE DATA ALSO INDICATES PRESENCE OF A MESOLOW AND PRESSURE FALLS. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE E OF THE MESOLOW...RESULTING IN LARGE...CURVED HODOGRAPHS. MOREOVER...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE SERN STATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION AND MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29268520 29798556 30778493 31168333 31168250 30508223 29608281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 03:01:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 22:01:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080425.j284Pr1C004030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080421 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 080421Z - 080545Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL GA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LINE OF STORMS JUST W OF MACON CONTINUES EAST AT 50 KT. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...THE LINE IS MOVING EWD FASTER THAN THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...AND NOCTURNAL COOLING IS OFFSETTING THE EFFECT OF THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE LINE CONTINUES EAST. AS A RESULT...TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE LINE TO WEAKEN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE LINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES AND LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LOW TOPPED...FORCED LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 31368211 31098476 32168500 33418301 33348174 32168148 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 06:04:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 01:04:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080729.j287TKSp017560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080728 FLZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47... VALID 080728Z - 080930Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS CURRENT WW /47/ EXPIRES AT 09Z. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTINUES... AND...BY 12Z...INTENSE WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING PATTERN...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM...IS ALREADY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS IN BAND SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH THE GAINESVILLE AND CROSS CITY AREAS. ACTIVITY EXTENDS OFF INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO AXIS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE CAPE. THIS MAY STILL YET SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST TROUGH WILL TAKE ON INCREASING NEUTRAL...THEN NEGATIVE TILT...ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 12-18Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA/FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS. COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/INCREASE IN SURFACE HEATING/AND MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...MOSTLY NORTH OF A TAMPA/ VERO BEACH LINE. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28918636 29428530 29398425 29478305 30008185 29948126 29018037 27938012 27438043 27378191 27678294 27648414 27708494 28108629 28278664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 06:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 01:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080759.j287xU44000752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080758 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-080900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 080758Z - 080900Z RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED/MARGINAL ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 46 TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED AT 09Z. NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE MACON AND COLUMBUS GA AREAS. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH APPEARS TO MINIMIZING EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS REFLECTED BY LIMITED CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES IN LIGHTNING DATA. SHALLOW NEUTRAL OR STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER ALSO APPEARS TO BE LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF PEAK GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF LINE. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES MAY SUPPORT SOME ACCELERATION OF LINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...AT LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREAD INTO GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 11-12Z. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31138144 30958302 30898432 31368483 31978378 32478308 33098225 33488162 33618062 33977937 34037800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 11:59:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 06:59:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503081323.j28DNc5f006276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081322 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-081345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081322Z - 081345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT...IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT SURGES EAST OF THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33758058 34588031 35487954 36397898 36637819 36627669 36057599 34687655 32957900 32918051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 15:01:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 10:01:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503081625.j28GPvcv016062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081624 NCZ000-VAZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48... VALID 081624Z - 081800Z SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NC. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL STORMS VACATE THE OUTER BANKS BETWEEN 08/17 AND 08/18Z. LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST...WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY STRONGLY-SHEARED AIRMASS. MORNING MHX RAOB AND LATEST VWP INDICATE 50 TO 60 KT WIND AT 1 KM INCREASING TO 85 TO 90 KT AT MID LEVELS...SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LINE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT REPORTS OF MEASURED 80 TO 100 MPH WIND GUSTS RECENTLY FROM IN AND NEAR WILMINGTON NC...A FEW ADDITIONAL VERY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS EVENTS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS REACH COASTAL NC / THE OUTER BANKS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 36597719 36557589 35667548 35287551 34557648 33897806 35237740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 17:49:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 12:49:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503081914.j28JEJCW015034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081913 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MA/NH/MAINE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 081913Z - 082315Z SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MA/NH INTO MAINE...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES COMMON. ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVY SNOW...FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH/DOWNEAST MAINE...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AT 18Z...APPROX 977 MB SFC LOW CENTERED SOUTH OFF OF LONG ISLAND AROUND 85 SSE ISP...WITH STRONG DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PROGRESS NEWD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERSPREAD OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER /600-850 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY FOCUS HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG A SSW-NNE ORIENTATION FROM MA INTO SRN MAINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES LIKELY. ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVIEST SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...15Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS/PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST FZRA/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND/AFTER 00Z OWING TO CAA/DYNAMIC COOLING. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...A MORE PRONOUNCED CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF PWM-AUG-BGR-RKD AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z OWING TO ENCROACHMENT OF 750-850 MB WARM LAYER. ..GUYER.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44267193 46227024 46976946 46756848 46306805 44746857 44106908 43457062 42357108 41967100 41777225 41947279 42417293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 19:38:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 14:38:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503082102.j28L2seW024478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082102 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / TX S PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082102Z - 082230Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLAINS -- PERHAPS INTO WRN N TX AND FAR SWRN OK AS WELL AS SWWD INTO SERN NM -- IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH A CONDITIONAL / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION FROM ROUGHLY LBB TO 35 W CDS...AND ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM. DRY / DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THOUGH THIS DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...COLD MID-LEVEL AIR /NEAR -20C/ AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING HAS YIELDED IN MINIMAL INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/. ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /AOB 25 KT THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE/ SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY / LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS...WITH COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THREAT FOR A MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL / WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UNLESS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33500284 33910213 34660027 34809958 34439935 33719971 32570134 32050288 31880474 32540529 33280516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 23:46:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 18:46:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503090110.j291ApaC002998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090109 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-090515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MA/NH/MAINE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 090109Z - 090515Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS ERN MA/ERN NH...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR/CNTRL MAINE. RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING NWLY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AT 01Z...969 MB SFC LOW /REF BUOY 44008/ CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF NANTUCKET...WITH DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-5 MB/2-HR MAXIMIZED OFF COASTAL MAINE. ON NW PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS PORTRAY SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ORGANIZING/CONTRACTING FROM ERN CT AND CNTRL/ERN MA INTO NH AND SRN MAINE. 21Z RUC/18Z NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM ERN MA INTO INTERIOR MAINE AMIDST DEFORMATION BAND/ERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL /600-850 MB/ FORCING. AS ALREADY SAMPLED IN DOWNSTREAM ENX/OKX VADS AND 00Z OKX RAOB...21Z RUC SUGGESTS NEWD TRANSITION OF 50+ KT 850 MB CORE FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO INTERIOR MAINE THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACROSS ERN MAINE...21Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FZRA MAY PERSIST THROUGH APPROX 04Z-06Z INVOF A BHB /BAR HARBOR/ TO HUL /HOULTON/ AXIS OWING TO EXISTENCE OF 800 MB WARM NOSE ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..GUYER.. 03/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 43087185 45137100 47306955 47386844 47096773 46466780 45386796 44346848 43657001 42827064 41797057 42087194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:28:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:28:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132028.j2DKS9Qx019044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121016 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-121515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0416 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...RI...MA...VT...NH AND ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 121016Z - 121515Z SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 15Z. RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AREA LIFTING NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE IS BEING MANIFESTED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN NY THROUGH CONNECTICUT AND WRN MA. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED DEFORMATION AXIS FROM VT/NH SWD THROUGH MA AND CT AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES NEWD. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX SHIFTS NEWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION SNOWS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF ME. SNOWFALL RATES MAY ALSO BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DUE TO PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 41717080 41457278 43467308 44897176 45447014 45466850 44746817 43307076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKanok022309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 ALZ000-MSZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS / CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132013Z - 132215Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING CENTRAL MS...EWD ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 19Z JAN SOUNDING MODIFIED USING CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-80 INDICATE NO INHIBITION WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH COLD OUTFLOW WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32658976 33568936 33778845 33938661 33958610 33918563 32378578 32338703 32438890 32598951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKap40022322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 ALZ000-MSZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS / CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132013Z - 132215Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING CENTRAL MS...EWD ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 19Z JAN SOUNDING MODIFIED USING CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-80 INDICATE NO INHIBITION WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH COLD OUTFLOW WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32658976 33568936 33778845 33938661 33958610 33918563 32378578 32338703 32438890 32598951  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKarga022350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 ALZ000-MSZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS / CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132013Z - 132215Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING CENTRAL MS...EWD ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 19Z JAN SOUNDING MODIFIED USING CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-80 INDICATE NO INHIBITION WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH COLD OUTFLOW WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32658976 33568936 33778845 33938661 33958610 33918563 32378578 32338703 32438890 32598951  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKaqma022343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131950 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CENTRAL TX/NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131950Z - 132215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS BY 2200Z. AIR MASS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO MUCH OF MS/AL. PROBLEM ATTM IS THAT CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CINH VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 100 J/KG. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW JUST W OF SHV SWWD THRU CLL AND S OF ERV /S CENTRAL TX/. ALSO A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER NEWD INTO NWRN AL. RUN AND AM MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN INITIATION WITH LATEST RUC BEGINNING OVER W CENTRAL/CENTRAL MS...THEN BACKBUILDING INTO NERN LA BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/00Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS JUST E OF SURFACE THERMAL AXIS FROM BETWEEN VCT AND HOU NEWD INTO NERN LA. AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME E CENTRAL TX...FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER ENEWD BETWEEN SHV AND IER. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN JAN AND TVR. BUT WOULD THINK THAT FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS LA. MAIN THREAT INITIALLY AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31669070 31509160 31329277 31259428 31719494 32369465 32759451 32849401 32849297 32879173 33009088 33008962 32188988  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKapgC022327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131950 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CENTRAL TX/NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131950Z - 132215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS BY 2200Z. AIR MASS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO MUCH OF MS/AL. PROBLEM ATTM IS THAT CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CINH VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 100 J/KG. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW JUST W OF SHV SWWD THRU CLL AND S OF ERV /S CENTRAL TX/. ALSO A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER NEWD INTO NWRN AL. RUN AND AM MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN INITIATION WITH LATEST RUC BEGINNING OVER W CENTRAL/CENTRAL MS...THEN BACKBUILDING INTO NERN LA BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/00Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS JUST E OF SURFACE THERMAL AXIS FROM BETWEEN VCT AND HOU NEWD INTO NERN LA. AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME E CENTRAL TX...FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER ENEWD BETWEEN SHV AND IER. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN JAN AND TVR. BUT WOULD THINK THAT FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS LA. MAIN THREAT INITIALLY AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31669070 31509160 31329277 31259428 31719494 32369465 32759451 32849401 32849297 32879173 33009088 33008962 32188988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 22:28:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 17:28:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132228.j2DMSx5N010111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132228 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CENTRAL AL / NRN GA / NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132228Z - 140000Z STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ISOLATED LOW-END SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A FEW STORMS NOW FORMING WITHIN SURFACE THETA-E AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...ALSO AIDED BY WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD OVER AL. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INSTABILITY IS LOW AND DAYLIGHT IS FADING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SW...OFFSETTING DECREASED INSOLATION. A FEW ISOLATED SVR HAIL REPORTS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 32968568 34098563 34558322 34798258 34668201 33758189 33528274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 23:03:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 18:03:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132303.j2DN3p5L024029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132302 LAZ000-TXZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SE TX...W-CENTRAL/NWRN LA S OF WW 49 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132302Z - 140100Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN PORTION WW 409 SWWD ALONG PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT/TROUGH LINE TOWARD AREA JUST NNE HOU. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE NWRN LA...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NE THROUGH S-CENTRAL TX...AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/TROUGH LINE FROM CYCLONE SWWD ACROSS WRN HARRIS COUNTY TX. AS LATTER BOUNDARY MOVES EWD -- PERHAPS OVERTAKEN NEXT 2-3 HOURS BY FRONT -- CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED. THIS IS EVIDENT ATTM IN CORRESPONDING LINE OF DEEP CU AND TCU SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY. VEERED SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND PREVENT STRONGER CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...40-50 KT FLOW AROUND 6 KM AGL -- AS OBSERVED IN E TX/LA PROFILERS AND REGIONAL VWP -- WILL CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IN MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-1800 MLCAPE IN THIS REGIME. MAIN CONCERN IS SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR OPTIMAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY NOW THAT DIABATIC HEATING HAS PASSED PEAK. SUNSET WILL RESULT IN DECOUPLING OF NEAR-SFC LAYER AND LARGE INCREASE IN SBCIN. STRONG CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FARTHER S OR SW ALONG FRONT OR PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND LIMIT COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER DISCUSSION AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31519253 31209291 30529411 30099512 30169547 30359532 30989459 31629378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 00:49:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 19:49:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503140049.j2E0nsn3005670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140049 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-140245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL AL...CENTRAL MS...N-CENTRAL/NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49... VALID 140049Z - 140245Z SEVERE TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING HAIL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW AREA. WW MAY CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS LA...HOWEVER ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BOTH IN AND N OF WW OVER PORTIONS MS/AL MAY POSE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK. 00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SSEWD ACROSS REGION...LOCATED NEAR THE LINE RMG...10 S CBM...20 S MLU...25 SE LFK...VCT...COT. FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE TX AND WRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. CELLS WITHIN 10-15 NM AHEAD OF NEAR ZONALLY ALIGNED FRONTAL SEGMENT -- OVER NERN LA/MS/AL...MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITH ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT-HAIL THREAT AS THEY CROSS FRONT AND ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY... BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED N OF FRONT. 2.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED PAST HALF HOUR HINDS COUNTY MS...WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THAT HAS BEEN RIGHT MOVING ENOUGH TO STAY ALONG OR BARELY AHEAD OF FRONT. 4.25 INCH HAIL REPORT ALSO HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM MADISON PARISH LA. MODIFIED JAN RAOB SHOWS MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE PARCEL BUOYANCY DECREASING THROUGH 500-800 J/KG RANGE...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED DIABATIC SFC COOLING. STILL...GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEARS 50 KT...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND NEARLY SFC BASED CELLS -- FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AT LEAST. ..EDWARDS.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...SHV...LCH...HUN...MEG... 31849321 32329227 33219102 33588649 32458650 32228930 32028974 31669076 31229224 31169311 31279329 31689322 31829319 33229102 33659053 34508888 34938698 34688581 34258578 33508797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 03:18:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 22:18:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503140318.j2E3IcJn016940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140317 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN GA...CENTRAL AL...MS...CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49... VALID 140317Z - 140445Z PRIND REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z. MEANWHILE BROKEN LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDED AT 3Z FROM CLEBURNE COUNTY AL SWWD TO VICINITY HEZ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD 10-15 KT AS CELLS MOVE GENERALLY EWD. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH SWD/EWD EXTENT AS THIS ACTIVITY EXITS WW. OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR MINOR WIND DAMAGE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER WW EXPIRES...HOWEVER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF NIGHT. ACTIVITY N OF WW AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MS/AL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT SHOULD NOT BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL ORGANIZED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW. DIABATIC COOLING HAS REMOVED SBCAPE ACROSS REGION ALONG AND S OF SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 3Z VERY CLOSE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE LINE POSITION. MUCAPE -- CURRENTLY ESTIMATED IN 400-800 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF REGION -- WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...THOUGH ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVER SRN AL...SRN MS AND PORTIONS GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 33558647 33808570 33738495 31868686 30789246 31049272 32139007 32458652 32218977 33008985 33259080 33588649 32458650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 15:41:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 10:41:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141541.j2EFfs6R011815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141541 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141541 FLZ000-141645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141541Z - 141645Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND BETWEEN PIE AND CTY AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA...SO WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA WILL BE MOVED SWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AREA ON THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. STORMS ARE MOVING EWD AT 35-40 MPH ONTO THE FL COAST WITH STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK ATTM. HOWEVER...THE SPEED OF STORMS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. ..IMY.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28888260 29058173 29108108 28238090 28098273 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 17:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 12:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141704.j2EH4Pq3013100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141703 COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AZ..NWRN AZ AND SWRN CO MOUNTAIN S CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 141703Z - 142100Z SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AZ...NWRN NM AND THE SRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 1 FOOT OF SNOW. INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE... ABOUT 50 NE OF LAS...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD TO NEAR IGM BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESULTING IN STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FROM CENTRAL/NRN AZ NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SWD INTO NWRN AZ WILL PUSH THE FRONTOGENESIS SEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA BY THAT TIME. ..IMY.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35271221 35971098 37230802 37570612 37400507 35870522 34470750 33410938 34581247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 18:05:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 13:05:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141805.j2EI5lpE030301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141805 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-142000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / FAR NRN FL / EXTREME SERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141805Z - 142000Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU INCREASING AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNCAPPED. 12Z TLH RAOB MODIFIED WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDS NO CAP WITH AND AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR. WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD OVER ERN GA...CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN MD AREA. INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL DUE TO LACK OF MID OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLS...SOME SPLITTING. RIGHT MOVERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED AS THEY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF EAST...DUE TO RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ..JEWELL.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32098081 31468119 30748144 30298142 30268402 30598424 32008354 32588283 32708183 32668005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 19:54:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 14:54:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141954.j2EJsXUQ028155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141953 TXZ000-NMZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 141953Z - 150000Z SNOWFALL RATE INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR TCS BY 00Z...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD THROUGH NWRN AZ. THE EWD MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT ACROSS ERN NM AND STRENGTHEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXITING JET MAX LOCATED IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN A 100 NM WIDE BAND THAT WOULD STRETCH E-W ALONG I-40. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA ALSO SHOW LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 TO 400 MB FROM 7-8C/KM... WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. ..IMY.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 36130622 36470422 36370094 35140146 34790323 34640462 34770598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 21:52:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 16:52:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503142152.j2ELqL4H024475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142151 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50... VALID 142151Z - 142345Z THREAT FOR SCATTERED HAIL / WIND REPORTS REMAINS OVER SERN HALF OF WW WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. ONGOING CONVECTION TO REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT WITH PROBABILITY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS SUN ANGLE LOWERS. VIGOROUS STORM ENTERING INTO CAMDEN COUNTY GA MAY HAVE SEVERE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31108446 31468355 31918256 32378193 32298058 31818105 31098133 30578144 30688432 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 01:54:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 20:54:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503150154.j2F1sPV6004607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150153 TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-150700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 150153Z - 150700Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGLY CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW WITH AXIS FROM CVS WWD INTO CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE BACKING SURFACE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA...AND THIS IS OCCURRING OVER NERN NM / SERN CO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY E AND NE FACING SLOPES OF THE CO/NM SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. COMBINED WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW RATES TO EXCEED 2 IN/HR IN THE MTNS WITH AROUND 1 IN/HR POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND NWRN TX PANHANDLE. RAIN / SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE N WITH TRANSITION ZONE NEAR A ROW-SRR LINE BY MORNING. ..JEWELL.. 03/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35800561 36910536 37160444 36960381 36430314 36330183 35980159 35250320 34740371 34610399 34490478 34470567 34520643 34840641 35340644 35610573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 05:52:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 00:52:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503150552.j2F5qjTI030387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150552 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150551 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-151145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL NM...THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 150551Z - 151145Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG 700 MB ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC LIFT IN THE 600-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS AZ/WRN NM. BANDED ECHO PATTERN EVIDENT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF ECENTRAL NM...SRN/ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED SATURATION GIVEN RECENT OBS OF CEILING HEIGHTS IN THE 4-8 KFT RANGE...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT RECENT EXPANSION OF ELEVATED ECHOES WILL LEAD TO THIS SATURATION OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. THUS THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS A ROSWELL NM TO CANADIAN TX LINE BY 12Z...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF CURRENT WET BULB FREEZING LINE AND ANTICIPATED SEWD MOVEMENT OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. FARTHER NORTH...HVY SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND NERN NM/FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 03/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33390440 33550558 34230602 35910616 36650442 36500307 36090050 35450038 34340091 33770262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 15:58:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 10:58:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503151558.j2FFwmBo032613@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151557 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-151700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF COAST CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 151557Z - 151700Z ...A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED AT 1630Z TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AT 1630Z. IT APPEARS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 03/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29799344 31119338 31879122 31728830 30328600 28698993 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 00:37:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:37:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503160037.j2G0bAbq011415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160036 TXZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160036Z - 160230Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS HIDALGO COUNTY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES OVER REMAINDER ERN HIDALGO/CAMERON/SRN KENEDY COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 0230Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TIME/SPACE COVERAGE OF THREAT. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK MESOLOW INVOF CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTY BORDER...LOCATED ON PRONOUNCED INFLECTION POINT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. FRONT IS ANALYZED SWD INTO NERN TAMAULIPAS AND EWD ACROSS PADRE ISLAND NEAR MANSFIELD CUT. THIS MESOLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD COAST...GIVEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG AREA THAT IS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN COAHUILA. MESOLOW AND NEARBY SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...AS WELL AS STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW THROUGH ISALLOBARIC FORCING. WARM SECTOR INFLOW IS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND WELL-SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO RAOB...WHICH INDICATED MLCAPE ROUGHLY 1300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SUPERCELLS...ROUGHLY 65 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 130 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOW ARE PRESENT AND WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORM SCALE PROCESSES MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATION AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26059770 26209795 26349806 26549790 26609760 26599737 26419721 26159715 25989724 26009754 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 00:40:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:40:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503160040.j2G0ec5l013004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160039 COR TXZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160039Z - 160230Z CORRECTED FOR COUNTY LIST CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS HIDALGO COUNTY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES TOWARD REMAINDER ERN HIDALGO/CAMERON/WILLACY/SRN KENEDY COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 0230Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TIME/SPACE COVERAGE OF THREAT. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK MESOLOW INVOF CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTY BORDER...LOCATED ON PRONOUNCED INFLECTION POINT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. FRONT IS ANALYZED SWD INTO NERN TAMAULIPAS AND EWD ACROSS PADRE ISLAND NEAR MANSFIELD CUT. THIS MESOLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD COAST...GIVEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG AREA THAT IS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN COAHUILA. MESOLOW AND NEARBY SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...AS WELL AS STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW THROUGH ISALLOBARIC FORCING. WARM SECTOR INFLOW IS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND WELL-SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO RAOB...WHICH INDICATED MLCAPE ROUGHLY 1300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SUPERCELLS...ROUGHLY 65 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 130 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOW ARE PRESENT AND WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORM SCALE PROCESSES MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATION AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26059770 26209795 26349806 26549790 26609760 26599737 26419721 26159715 25989724 26009754 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 06:49:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 01:49:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503160649.j2G6n7sa021070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160648 FLZ000-160915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160648Z - 160915Z A LOCALIZED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST OVER THE S CNTRL FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE APALACHICOLA AREA AFTER 08Z. EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY NWD AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WITHIN THE ZONE OF LIFT N OF THIS BOUNDARY...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW A LINE OF STORMS WITH A NRN END COMMA HEAD AND REAR INFLOW NOTCH ABOUT 60 SM W OF THE APALACHICOLA AREA. THE LINE IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25-30 KT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY 08Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH THE LINE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...IT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO EXIST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MOISTENS IN VICINITY OF THE NWD MOVING FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE LARGE. ..DIAL.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 30338597 30518517 30378438 29978446 29668506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 10:23:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 05:23:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503161023.j2GANAI1003459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161022 FLZ000-GAZ000-161215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161022Z - 161215Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF NRN FL INTO EXTREME SRN GA. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL FL WWD INTO THE NRN GULF. SQUALL LINE WITH LEWP STRUCTURES PERSISTS WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT N OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM S OF TALLAHASSEE TO E OF APALACHICOLA...MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. THE LINE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS MORNING AND CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. RECENT VWP AND RUC SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH TIME GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE...INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28908261 29338294 30108369 30678318 30838158 29538150 28878208 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 17:20:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 12:20:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503161720.j2GHK4Cb010223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161719 FLZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN / CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161719Z - 161915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN FL...WHILE OTHER / ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN / CENTRAL FL. THOUGH WW NOT IMMINENT ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF. THOUGH LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE NWRN FL COAST ATTM -- BETWEEN TLH AND CTY...LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT ANY WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. FROM ROUGHLY CTY TO GNV SWD...THINNER HIGH OVERCAST IS ALLOWING SOME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPPING INDICATED BY MORNING TBW RAOB CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO A DIRECTION W OF S OVER MUCH OF THE PENINSULA...STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /60 TO 70 KT/ SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. GREATEST THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ANY SMALL-SCALE LINES / LINE SEGMENTS COULD FORM. ATTM...QUESTIONS REGARDING EVENTUAL STORM COVERAGE MAKE WW ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN. SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE THAT ORGANIZED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WW COULD BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29708342 29818323 29978231 30018133 29098085 28378110 27908236 27808282 28558265 28948266 29158277 29188305 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 21:24:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 16:24:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503162124.j2GLONP9013046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162122 FLZ000-162245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 51... VALID 162122Z - 162245Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA -- WITH GREATEST ONGOING THREAT INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST ATTM. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SEVERAL COMPACT / LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN FL AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS ATTM...FROM ROUGHLY ST. JOHNS COUNTY SWD TO ORANGE / BREVARD COUNTIES. STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS EXIST ATTM FROM 10 WNW ORL TO 20 SE DAB...WITH A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS REVEALING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THOUGH ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ERN GULF...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS ERN FL. IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UP TO 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...VEERED / SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER LAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST...THUS FAVORING STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW. ..GOSS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29818197 30138141 28578057 28258062 27288022 27598246 28488255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 00:05:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 19:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503170005.j2H05jPX013490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170004 FLZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 51... VALID 170004Z - 170030Z TORNADO WATCH 51 EXPIRES AT 01Z AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REISSUED. A MESOLOW HAS MOVED ASHORE VCNTY KTPA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS POLK... OSCEOLA...ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES ALONG A BOUNDARY THROUGH 02Z AT 35 KTS. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS UNSTABLE. THOUGH THE FLOW HAS BECOME WLY THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THOUGH THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 01Z...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF ECNTRL FL THROUGH 02Z. AFTERWARDS...THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER UVV WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NEWD OFF THE FL COAST. ..RACY.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29818197 30138141 28578057 28258062 27288022 27598246 28488255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 13:39:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 08:39:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503171339.j2HDdVLE006238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171337 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171337Z - 171530Z MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S FL FROM NEAR BOCA RATON WWD TO NEAR NAPLES. A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION N OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY JUST E OF FORT MEYERS WHERE A BOW-ECHO/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT AND MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SHORT TERM THREAT. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 41717080 41457278 43467308 44897176 45447014 45466850 44746817 43307076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 13:51:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 08:51:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503171351.j2HDpCH0013467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171343 COR FLZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171343Z - 171530Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC PLACEMENT MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S FL FROM NEAR BOCA RATON WWD TO NEAR NAPLES. A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION N OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY JUST E OF FORT MEYERS WHERE A BOW-ECHO/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT AND MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SHORT TERM THREAT. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26837921 26338096 26438221 27208169 27587994  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 17:10:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 12:10:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503171710.j2HHAGSo000402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171709 FLZ000-171815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 52... VALID 171709Z - 171815Z ...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. QUALITY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF LEADING OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTH OF BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 24558204 27358198 27347968 24527979 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 20:25:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 15:25:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503172024.j2HKOtU6018695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172024 FLZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 52... VALID 172024Z - 172130Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS... EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SAGGING SWD AT ROUGHLY 5 KT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MULTIPLE ARC-SHAPED LINE SEGMENTS ARE RACING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRAVERSE E-W BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE SERN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS. ..DARROW.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW... 25128220 27068019 26017944 24188133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 01:58:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 20:58:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503180158.j2I1wKWb026869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180157 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-180700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN MN/WRN WI/NRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 180157Z - 180700Z HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FROM ERN SD TO SWRN WI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY EVENING RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ERN NE TO NRN IL AT 01 UTC. LATEST 21 UTC NAMKF AND NCEP SREF PREDICT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TO SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH 09 UTC...WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE BECOMING ENHANCED AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NWRN KS TO ERN NE TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOWARD CNTRL SD BY 09 UTC WILL FURTHER AID PRECIPITATION RATES IN WRN SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 06 UTC AND 09 UTC. LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION THROUGH SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC LAYER AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN MN. MESOSCALE REGIONS OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HOUR IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS. ELY/NELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ENSURE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN IA. ..BRIGHT.. 03/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44569782 44889682 44879581 44599280 44179047 42898800 42478863 42598975 42729082 42939182 43199330 43279409 43459585 43639688 44079787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 12:19:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 07:19:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503181219.j2ICJJfE024907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181218 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-181615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IA/SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181218Z - 181615Z BAND OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NRN IA/SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED 1.0-2.0 IN/HR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SD/NEB. IR SATELLITE TRENDS OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS FEATURES BLOSSOMING/VERY COLD -60C CLOUD TOPS ACROSS FAR NRN IA/SRN MN INTO WRN WI...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO DPVA WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME /REF SLATER IA AND LATHROP MO PROFILERS/. GIVEN RELATIVELY SLOW EWD MOVING NATURE OF CYCLONE/DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND...PROLONGED/CONFINED CORRIDOR OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF STRONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SRN MN/FAR NRN IA INTO WCNTRL WI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PER 12Z OAX/DVN RAOBS...PROXIMITY OF 7.0-8.0 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSNOW/SNOW RATE ENHANCEMENT. ..GUYER.. 03/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44398986 44038959 43658952 43319008 43269282 43029509 43099602 43239662 43619683 44389661 44729496 44929233 44639059 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 17:34:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 12:34:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503181734.j2IHY90A008388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181733 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181733 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-182130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN SD...SRN MN...AND WRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181733Z - 182130Z HEAVY SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN SD TO WRN WI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR EXPECTED. BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NWD/NEWD DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. CLOSED 700MB LOW CENTER OVER SERN SD WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOW EWD ACROSS NWRN IA THROUGH 00Z...A PARTIAL RESULT OF THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK ACROSS ERN CANADA. LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG...WITH MARKED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR SUX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO N-CENTRAL IL. ON THE MESOSCALE...INTENSE PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES ON NRN EDGE OF STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION ZONE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING AT A NUMBER OF ASOS STATIONS ACROSS SRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND. WITH BAND WELL-ALIGNED WITH RUC 750MB FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM...TREND SHOULD BE FOR BAND TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH 00Z...BRINGING SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR CLOSER TO THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF MSP METRO AREA. TRENDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ALONG I-94 CORRIDOR IN WRN WI. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES WELL-DEFINED TROWAL/THETA-E RIDGE WRAPPING WWD JUST NORTH OF 700MB LOW CENTER THROUGH 00Z AS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN IA. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT SHOULD MAINTAIN AXIS OF OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACROSS FAR SRN/SWRN MN TO THE SD/MN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 03/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD... 44999311 44939158 44749031 44438956 43848969 43639032 43729289 43609449 43469555 43349639 43569708 44159725 44379650 44919458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 18:47:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 13:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503191847.j2JIl62c011330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191846 TXZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191846Z - 192045Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER.. RECENT LIGHTNING/RADAR DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY SOUTH OF JCT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/STEEP LAPSE RATES...JUST WEST OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MATURES...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE WILL OCCUR AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ALONG PREEXISTING BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS AIRMASS HEATS/MOISTENS. HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER CELLS AS THEY INGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30170017 31029864 30979657 29799617 29499816 29409999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 21:29:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 16:29:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503192128.j2JLSiQr027310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192127 TXZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53... VALID 192127Z - 192300Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS HAMPERED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR/FORCING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LIMITED INFLOW INTO UPDRAFT REGION...THUS LIFETIME CYCLE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. NWD-DRIFTING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON SPREAD INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW AS REMNANTS OF EARLY AFTERNOON CLUSTER PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS BURNET/BLANCO COUNTIES. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE THOSE THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOST BUOYANT. WILL MONITOR COASTAL PLAINS OF TX FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..DARROW.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 28149885 30389850 31019667 29389625 28659752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 22:39:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 17:39:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503192239.j2JMd4Uf025036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192238 TXZ000-192345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192238Z - 192345Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH COVERING PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX GULF COAST WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY. STORM ARE INCREASING IN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM WEST TX. ACTIVITY IS MOST ORGANIZED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW OVER WILLIAMSON COUNTY ATTM WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MILAM...ROBERTSON...AND LEON COUNTIES. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER GONZALES COUNTY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE TROUGH. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...35-40KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND SPREADS EAST TO THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29709433 28949642 28429760 28029875 28359876 29089864 29769743 29929694 30979674 31719413 30879372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 23:34:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 18:34:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503192333.j2JNXgNt012243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192332 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-200130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192332Z - 200130Z PORTIONS OF ERN TX AROUND THE SABINE RIVER...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WRN AND SRN LA...MAY NEED A SEVERE TSTM WATCH DURING THE EVENING. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS SWRN LA EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONG AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE UPPER TX GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER REGION WAS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER ORGANIZING MCS OVER TX MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...OR WHETHER A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS DEVELOPS FROM ACTIVITY NOW OVER BEAUREGARD PARISH. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA WOULD APPEAR TO SUGGEST THE LATTER SCENARIO AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29739369 29539451 31029452 31259280 31509151 30379157 30009157 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 01:05:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 20:05:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200104.j2K14g22014190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200103 TXZ000-200230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... VALID 200103Z - 200230Z LARGE CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 54. A COUPLE OF POTENT SUPERCELLS WERE ALSO WITHIN SRN PARTS OF THE WATCH AND MOVING ACROSS SAN PATRICIO AND NUECES COUNTIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE NRN PART OF THE WATCH APPEARS TO BE A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER AND INTO WRN/SRN LA. DESPITE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...THIS COMPLEX MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SEVERE WEATHER INTO LATE EVENING AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH TO THE EAST IS BEING CONSIDERED. ..CARBIN.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27389620 27419868 31329679 31329418 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 03:39:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 22:39:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200339.j2K3d3It009150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200336 TXZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... VALID 200336Z - 200500Z ...SEVERE STORM HAZARD CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCH 54... GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION WHERE A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS JACKSON...WHARTON...FORT BEND...BRAZORIA...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOIST AIRMASS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SR INFLOW TO LINEAR MCS COULD PROMOTE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...WEAKLY ORGANIZED MASS OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING GRADUALLY EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR LFK TO ESF. CELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG W-E FRONT AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL...WITH FRONTAL ZONE APPEARING TO LIFT NWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SHEAR IS FCST OVER THESE AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ATOP THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WATCH...EAST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27389620 27469868 29289788 30509534 31329418  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 08:01:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 03:01:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200801.j2K81VLA031598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200800 TXZ000-201000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL BEND REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200800Z - 201000Z ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS JIM WELLS/LIVE OAK COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE ESEWD -- ESSENTIALLY DOWN LOWER NUECES RIVER REGION TOWARD CRP BAY -- THROUGH 10Z. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW BETWEEN ALI-LRD AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD AS WELL. MAIN CONCERN IS LARGE HAIL. BECAUSE OF LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THREAT...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN GULF BOW ECHO...FROM 75 SSE PSX WNWWD ACROSS PORT ARANSAS AND MUSTANG ISLAND...JUST N CRP...TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN JIM WELLS COUNTY. FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWWD TOWARD LRD. BOUNDARIES ARE QUASISTATIONARY NW OF CRP AND MOVING SWD 10-15 KT OVER COASTAL BARRIER ISLANDS...AND SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER LATTER AREAS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS FORMED AT OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NRN JIM WELLS COUNTY..AND SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODIFIED CRP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AIDED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH VWP/RUC WIND PROFILES SHOW PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM AGL HODOGRAPH LAYER...INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND ENHANCED HAIL POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS CLUSTER BECAUSE OF BOTH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE VORTICITY/LIFT. LEFT SPLITS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MOVING ENEWD TOWARD REFUGIO COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP... 27809875 28269783 28439747 28349710 28019683 27709696 27639733 27619886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 08:43:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 03:43:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200843.j2K8hAJv015095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200842 LAZ000-201115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL LA AND ADJACENT WATERS -- FROM SERN CAMERON TO TERREBONNE PARISHES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200842Z - 201115Z NRN PORTION OF PERSISTENT/WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO IS MOVING ENEWD 40-50 KT ACROSS GULF WATERS SE OF SABINE PASS...AND MAY AFFECT DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 930-12Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT OVER COASTAL AREAS AND INTO GULF...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE OF THREAT OVER LAND. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES MARINE FRONT -- DENOTING NRN EDGE OF MOST HIGHLY MODIFIED GULF AIR -- FROM ABOUT 75 S MSY WNWWD TO ABOUT 60 SSE LCH...DRIFTING N. THIS FRONT MAY BARELY MOVE INLAND OVER PORTIONS VERMILION/IBERIA/ST MARY/TERREBONNE PARISHES BEFORE PASSAGE OF MCS...ALLOWING NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THEREFORE IS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND SWD OVER GULF WATERS. RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC DECREASES NWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INFLOW-LAYER THERMODYNAMICS...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY MCV EVIDENT AT 830Z ABOUT 35 S BPT...AND BY EXTENSIVE LOW-MIDLEVEL REAR-INFLOW JET OF 35-50 KT EVIDENT IN LCH VELOCITY DATA. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29619335 29809301 29949234 29949172 29789125 29609089 29469063 29299044 28929045 28709082 28529116 28419159 28419191 28439244 28379282 28359319 28759298 29159302 29459324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 09:40:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 04:40:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503210939.j2L9dwhL003078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210939 OKZ000-TXZ000-211215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...CENTRAL/SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210939Z - 211215Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...WITHIN BROAD SWATH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY A SEP... ACT...TYR LINE NWD TO VICINITY I-40 IN OK. MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL...THOUGH OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR AS WELL. SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE WW IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AIR MASS ACROSS ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. RAPIDLY SHARPENING MOIST/DRY SIGNATURE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES STRENGTHENING VERTICAL CIRCULATION AND ASCENT/DESCENT COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND WAA INVOF 35-45 KT LLJ. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG FROM CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. REMOVING SHEAR FROM NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH STILL MAY REACH 300-400 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTING ROTATION IN CELLS AND ENHANCED HAIL PRODUCTION. WRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MARKED BY DRYLINE...ANALYZED ATTM FROM NEAR CSM SWD TO CONCHO COUNTY TX. CURRENTLY QUASISTATIONARY...DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING EWD AFTER SUNRISE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31439905 33559861 35259856 35999821 35969661 35619576 34919564 33549561 31869606 31459744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 11:25:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 06:25:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211125.j2LBPT1n012052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211124 NEZ000-SDZ000-211630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NCENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 211124Z - 211630Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION BEGINNING BY 12Z AND LASTING THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CENTRAL/WRN NEB IN AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A VORT MAX ROTATING SLOWLY NWD THROUGH SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS OF MID LEVEL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT ABOVE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER NOTED ON REGIONAL PROFILERS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP COLUMN OF VERTICAL MOTION OVER WRN/NCENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCLUSION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER KS SHOULD AID IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MORNING HOURS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF EXPECTED HVY SNOW AREA. TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT LOW LEVEL CAA/WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE INTO NCENTRAL NEB THROUGH 12Z. BY 15Z...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KEITH COUNTY TO WHEELER COUNTY. ..CROSBIE.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41909810 42819820 43469916 43679995 43570122 42470221 41530204 40890143 41349854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 13:44:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 08:44:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211344.j2LDiXUK017391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211343 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-211515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 211343Z - 211515Z INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO ERN/SRN PORTION WW AND GENERALLY WEAKENED...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SRN AREA W AUS AND NW SAT...AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE BASED JUST ABOVE SFC IN SAT-JCT-AUS AREA...WITH LESS OF A MIDLEVEL/CAPE-ROBBING WARM LAYER THAN FARTHER N. SECONDARY LINE OF TSTMS FROM NEAR DUA SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30 NNE JCT MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PORTION IN TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE GREATEST. SFC DRYLINE IS ACCELERATING EWD ACROSS NW TX...ANALYZED FROM NEAR GAG-FSI TO CLAY COUNTY TX...THEN SWWD TO ABOUT 20 E JCT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BEHIND WESTERN CONVECTIVE LINE...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER DRYING AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED EWD SHIFT OF SFC DRYLINE...MITIGATING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR REMAINDER WW TIME FRAME. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 33849793 33839431 29909701 29930053 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 15:27:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 10:27:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211527.j2LFRNp2000984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211526 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 211526Z - 211600Z SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITHIN WW 55 GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW JCT TO 15 NNW CLL. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/S OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY THIS MORNING TO INGEST HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FARTHER N...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND AS INDICATED IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 31089977 31489903 33229751 33889720 33839426 31389597 29849703 29819925 29860066 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 16:59:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 11:59:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211658.j2LGwq03013164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211657 TXZ000-211730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX TO THE UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 211657Z - 211730Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX EWD INTO SE TX. VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS INDICATED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN VCT AND THE HOU AREA...ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING WITHIN AN AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN PORTION OF WW 055 /IN HAYS COUNTY/ HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY PER LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTING THEY HAVE BECOME MORE ROOTED TOWARD THE SURFACE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND SAT EWD INTO SE TX...WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28639883 30149888 30329795 30519610 30779474 30629451 29599434 28829533 28509617 28669722 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 18:15:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 13:15:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211815.j2LIFDjP006530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211814 OKZ000-TXZ000-211845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211814Z - 211845Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM NWRN OK SEWD TO JUST WEST OF OKC AND THEN SWD TO JUST EAST OF FTW. TCU IS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE PER VISUAL OBSERVATION AT SPC. SURFACE BASED CIN HAS DECREASED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITHIN NARROW MOIST AXIS LOCATED ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG/E OF DRY LINE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33849698 34689734 35709795 36959893 36979662 34629525 33919508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 21:05:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 16:05:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212104.j2LL4bgs014957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212059 TXZ000-OKZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212059Z - 212330Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2030Z CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER 15S DUA SWD TO NEAR ACT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. JTN PROFILER SHOWS STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX ATTM. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND REMNANT DOWNSTREAM BAND OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NERN TX. ADDITIONALLY... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG IN THIS AREA WHICH IS WELL REMOVED FROM SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NWRN OK. ISOLATED WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST IN ADVANCE OF CONVERGENT AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF STORMS ARE SUSTAINABLE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. AREAS OF N-CENTRAL TX FROM JUST EAST OF DAL TO ACT EWD INTO NERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..BANACOS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 32669668 33539650 33719638 33809570 33689524 33069490 31589510 31159561 30939612 30759669 30769696 31089745 31549708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 21:16:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 16:16:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212116.j2LLGBp5024540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212114 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO SRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 56... VALID 212114Z - 212245Z TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 56 AND SEWD ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS NWRN OK...ALONG/JUST EAST OF A COLD FRONT SINCE 1930Z. SURFACE ANALYSES/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A TRIPLE POINT IN ERN KINGFISHER COUNTY OK...WITH THE DRY LINE EXTENDING SEWD TOWARD TIK AND THEN SWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER IN GRAYSON COUNTY TX. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS HAD BEEN LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF WW 56 IN SRN KS...SIMILAR STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ALONG/E OF THE DRY LINE AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC... 37309992 36849962 36419914 36319850 35689837 35249776 33839688 33839510 36969680 37409862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 22:46:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 17:46:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212246.j2LMkDqr026200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212245 FLZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212245Z - 220045Z TSTMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN FL EARLY THIS EVENING. TIME OF DAY AND ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BY FL STANDARDS WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...MESOSCALE FOCUSING IN THE FORM OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER THE SCNTRL PART OF THE PENINSULA...COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 30KT...WAS RESULTING IN A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. WHILE A DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT OR BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THESE CELLS...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPDRAFTS CROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH OF TPA TO BOW TO VRB...TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26278004 26428133 27658249 28048279 28878261 28608083 27888050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 23:11:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 18:11:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212311.j2LNB7bE007831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212310 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN TX...SWRN AR...WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212310Z - 220045Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AND ERN TX...SWRN AR...AND WRN LA. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 70-80KT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER NWRN OK WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MESOSCALE MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE LATE EVENING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29169519 28829774 32759602 33869556 33789287 31709286 29939394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 01:01:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 20:01:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220100.j2M10iKJ009211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220059 OKZ000-220300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220059Z - 220300Z ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF OK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE STORMS TONIGHT MAY NECESSITATE NEW WW ISSUANCE. AT 0030Z...VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF AVK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH 06Z. SURFACE DRYLINE HAS RECENTLY STALLED IN AN ARC SHAPE FROM 40N OKC TO 45 E OKC TO NEAR DUA. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF OKC IN THE DRIER AIR...SUGGESTIVE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW EAST OF DRYLINE WITH MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG...ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY RESULT IN GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SEVERE THREAT IS CONFINED TO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS ERN/NRN OK. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW LATER TONIGHT IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES EAST OF DRYLINE. ..BANACOS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34899673 35779695 36669715 36839671 36889571 36689496 36249473 35239460 34629457 34239462 34059504 34049554 34079616 34119640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 02:31:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 21:31:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220231.j2M2VVXQ029029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220229 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK....ERN TX...SWRN AR...NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 57... VALID 220229Z - 220400Z SEVERE TSTMS...SOME PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 57 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR...AND NWRN LA. A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED EAST OF WATCH 57 WITHIN THE HOUR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS ERN TX LATE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVE EAST FROM NWRN TX AND SRN OK. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN TX AND INTO PARTS OF SERN OK AND WRN LA REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST NAM FCSTS INDICATE INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AND HIGH CONVECTIVE QPF WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA OVERNIGHT. COINCIDENT WITH THIS STRONG FORCING WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING UPDRAFT LONGEVITY AND ROTATION. AT PRESENT...GREATEST EFFECTIVE SRH FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EXISTS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH... INDICATED BY HATCHED AREA ON MCD GRAPHIC...CELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY PRODUCE TORNADOES...HAIL...AND HIGH WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX... 29539503 29679672 32759602 34369569 34329315 34299222 33659173 33009192 32659217 32339272 31499347 29889401 29759407  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 04:13:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 23:13:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220413.j2M4D1xu014637@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220412 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220412Z - 220515Z A NEW TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO COVER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER NWRN OK. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE RED RIVER NWD ACROSS THE OZARKS. STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRIMARILY HAIL AND A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35539303 34489317 34549579 36969592 36999469 36469450 36419280 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 08:21:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 03:21:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220821.j2M8LE8r017441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220820 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OK AND WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... VALID 220820Z - 220945Z STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE BIFURCATED INTO TWO MAIN LOBES -- WAA REGIME ACROSS AR/LA/SE TX AND SMALL AREA OF DEEP-LAYER LIFT JUST AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATTER REGIME STILL MAY AFFECT WW...ESPECIALLY NRN PORTIONS...ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC OCCLUDED FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM NEAR TUL SSEWD ACROSS PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. AIRMASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES DEVELOP BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY THAT HAS NOW MOVED E OF WW. ROUGHLY 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE ACROSS E-CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME WRN AR...DECREASING TO 800-1200 J/KG OVER NERN OK. THEREFORE... ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS RATHER SCANT OVER WW AREA ATTM...MOST OF WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION...FOR POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS BEHIND FRONT. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BY ABOUT 930-10Z...ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 36729561 36719348 34259357 34249566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 09:44:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 04:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220944.j2M9iIIK018105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220943 LAZ000-TXZ000-221145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SE TX...SMALL PART OF NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60... VALID 220943Z - 221145Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL -- EVIDENT AT 930Z FROM HOU METRO AREA NEWD PAST JASPER INTO N-CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SERN PORTION WW WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF CLL. NWRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED AS SFC DRYLINE/FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH...STABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS THROUGH CAA AND DRY ADVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ACROSS WW BASED ON VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 70-80 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS ARE EVIDENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER AREA...THOUGH SOME WEAKNESS IN ABSOLUTE SPEEDS AROUND 2 KM REDUCES LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE. THERMODYNAMICALLY...AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF WW IS CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE -- SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SFC. ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ROOTED AT SFC ALSO EVIDENT OVER AND JUST WW HOU AREA WITH LESS THAN 50 J/KG SBCIN FROM THERE EWD TOWARD BPT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29499650 30949630 31069580 31619575 32329487 32299340 29539387 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 09:58:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 04:58:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220958.j2M9w9qr022953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220957 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-221200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN LA...SERN AR...WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61... VALID 220957Z - 221200Z PRIMARY LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 945Z FROM NATCHITOCHES PARISH NEWD TOWARD GWO -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER WW AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. BRIEF TORNADO FROM BOW ECHO OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED OVER NWRN PART OF WW BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EVIDENT FROM ELD AREA SWD...AND MOVING EWD ACROSS LA/AR BORDER REGION. ELEVATED MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG EVIDENT NEAR AR/LA BORDER BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS....SUPPORTED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUOYANCY IS ROOTED NEARER TO SFC WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT PRECIP-RELATED COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BY ONGOING CONVECTION MAY PRECLUDE SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS FROM REACHING WW AREA LATER. 55-65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF AREA...SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW MORPHOLOGIES WITH CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 33509280 33508930 31239012 31239353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 12:01:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 07:01:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221200.j2MC0pvK004903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221159 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-221400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN MS...S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61...62... VALID 221159Z - 221400Z LINE OF TSTMS -- BROKEN AND RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER SWRN LA BUT SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED IN NARROW ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN MS -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER REMAINDER OF BOTH WWS. NRN PORTION OF LINE MAY MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 61 -- OVER E-CENTRAL MS -- WHILE MIDDLE SEGMENT AFFECTS AREAS INVOF MCB CURRENTLY NOT IN WW. AS THIS OCCURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL OR MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN 1. PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AND HIGHER STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EWD EXTENT...AND 2. LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INSTEAD OF DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR MODE... POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE APPEARS TOO SMALL ATTM TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW FARTHER E IN MS. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUOYANCY OF NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER SRN LA INDICATES SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THERE...HOWEVER OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. BOTH WWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FROM W-E BEHIND CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31219015 31299174 32629087 32739027 33209004 33538988 33508934 29599131 29589377 30199374 30929308 31289175 31229108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 13:40:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 08:40:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221339.j2MDduL8024136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221338 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-221445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...S-CENTRAL-SERN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 221338Z - 221445Z WW 64 IS BEING ISSUED E OF WW 63 FOR INCREASING TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL FRONT NOW ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE AL AND WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. STRENGTHENING CONVECTION N OF COASTAL FRONT ACROSS FL PANHANDLE...SE AL AND SW GA STILL APPEARS ELEVATED...BASED ON MODIFIED TLH RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WAA...INLAND FRONTAL PENETRATION...AND A FEW DEG F OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. MEANWHILE...200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN AIR MASS E OF MAJOR CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER SRN MS. SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND BOW ECHO TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LATTER ACTIVITY ALSO AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN MS/AL. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32308637 31648317 29378335 30228663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 14:51:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 09:51:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221451.j2MEpEFA011708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221449 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO PARTS OF WRN/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221449Z - 221515Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO WRN GA. STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TO SRN MS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THIS MORNING INTO AL AS WARM SECTOR MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE MS LINE OF STORMS AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AL ATTM. STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AL ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE NNE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL SEWD INTO SRN GA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AL INTO WRN GA MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS NOSE OF 80 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ELEVATED ACTIVITY THROUGH MID DAY. CENTRAL AL INTO PORTIONS OF GA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32468846 33668825 34128821 34578807 34318529 33648486 32168471 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 15:40:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 10:40:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221539.j2MFdnuQ016946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221538 FLZ000-GAZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221538Z - 221745Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM FRONT OVER NRN FL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER FAR NRN FL / SRN GA. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MODIFIED 12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED CAP IS ESSENTIALLY GONE...THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION BEING POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ONCE STORMS REACH PEAK INTENSITY / ORGANIZATION. AREA WIND PROFILES INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 100-200 J/KG 0-1KM SRH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SURFACE BASED UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID / UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28968087 29138169 29408262 31558293 31258126 30798143 29908126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 15:45:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 10:45:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221544.j2MFilU0020744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221544 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-221645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0944 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/COASTAL SERN LA INTO SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 221544Z - 221645Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z ACROSS FAR SERN MS TO COASTAL SERN LA AND EWD ACROSS SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ALONG CENTRAL TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE MS/AL BORDER...WITH THE BOW THEN TRAILING SWWD ACROSS SERN MS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE VALUES OVER SRN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WHERE THE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED INLAND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S. WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW ECHO AND MODERATE INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE AT 35-40 KT. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW ECHO AS WELL AS WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SR HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 250-350 M2/S2. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30229027 30748905 31848855 32418860 32418637 31018644 30148654 30068777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 16:55:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 11:55:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221654.j2MGsumv013582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221654 SCZ000-GAZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221654Z - 221730Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC. THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN GA INTO SRN SC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND SRN GA...WITH A SECOND WARM FRONT LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL JET. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY INDICATED OVER MUCH OF ERN GA AND SRN SC SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED ORGANIZED STORMS...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31958361 33708359 32738008 31328126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 17:57:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 12:57:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221756.j2MHujA1031221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221755 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN AR / NWRN MS / EXTREME SWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221755Z - 221930Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ALONG WARM FRONT NEAR SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL AR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SERN AR. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AIR MASS OVER FAR NRN MS AND SWRN TN IS STABLE AS OF 18Z BUT WILL DESTABILIZE GIVEN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT...AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE ABOUT 20 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR N OF WARM FRONT. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA... 33249131 33339162 34139186 34689283 34839325 36029360 35689142 34988914 34158924 33468969 33329004 33279054 33239091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 18:52:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 13:52:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221852.j2MIqTul009018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221851 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-221945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...64... VALID 221851Z - 221945Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO REPLACE PORTIONS OF WW 64 ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL TO SRN GA...GIVEN THAT PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN AL EWD ACROSS FAR SRN GA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN THE SWRN GA COUNTIES OF EARLY/MILLER/SEMINOLE AND A SECOND TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN TIFT COUNTY GA. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN WW 64 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30088682 31508653 31978700 32418737 32228555 31838305 29478310 30038652 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 19:39:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 14:39:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221938.j2MJcd54010506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221937 FLZ000-GAZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66... VALID 221937Z - 222100Z THREAT EXISTS FOR STRONG TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SRN GA AND EXTREME NRN FL. THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AS WELL. 18Z TLH RAOB IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS SOMEWHAT COOL...STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER E WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. HODOGRAPH IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 200-300 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS WELL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE / NRN FL AND SRN GA. WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EWD...ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 28828082 29108276 30108391 31908300 31888195 31548118 30898144 29968123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 20:06:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 15:06:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222006.j2MK6Nuk031052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222005 GAZ000-ALZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 65... VALID 222005Z - 222030Z WW 65 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 21Z. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN GA...BUT AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 65. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS WRN GA IN WW 65...WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY LOCATED FARTHER SWD ACROSS SRN GA WITHIN TORNADO WATCHES 66 AND 69. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE AIR MASS OVER WRN INTO CENTRAL GA HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 33918541 33758358 31888355 32028510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 20:41:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 15:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222040.j2MKeWqF028088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222039 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR / NWRN MS / SWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68... VALID 222039Z - 222215Z STORMS ARE FINALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES UP TO GOLF BALL SIZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36329297 35219264 34619137 33759085 34408917 36479104 36499282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 21:42:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 16:42:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222142.j2MLg5uB025945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222141 FLZ000-GAZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66... VALID 222141Z - 222215Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 66. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN FL... WHERE AREA VAD WINDS SHOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31758311 31858232 31688187 31278125 28968119 29448316 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 21:44:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 16:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222144.j2MLiDGZ028533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222143 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS INTO SERN LA / WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222143Z - 222345Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW IS NOT EXPECTED. 18Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO EARLIER MCS PASSAGE...BUT STILL MODERATE INSTABILITY WHEN MODIFIED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH WILL TEND TO OVERLY SHEAR THE UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ISOLATED DUE TO HIGH SHEAR / LOW CAPE AND A FEW MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33258953 33258855 33248767 30898819 30908892 30889119 31099118 31809041 32419023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:02:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222202.j2MM23SM014960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222141 FLZ000-GAZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66... VALID 222141Z - 222215Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 66. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN FL... WHERE AREA VAD WINDS SHOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31758311 31858232 31688187 31278125 28968119 29448316  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:07:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:07:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222207.j2MM7HKT020173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222143 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS INTO SERN LA / WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222143Z - 222345Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW IS NOT EXPECTED. 18Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO EARLIER MCS PASSAGE...BUT STILL MODERATE INSTABILITY WHEN MODIFIED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH WILL TEND TO OVERLY SHEAR THE UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ISOLATED DUE TO HIGH SHEAR / LOW CAPE AND A FEW MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33258953 33258855 33248767 30898819 30908892 30889119 31099118 31809041 32419023  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:12:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:12:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222212.j2MMCRaL025484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 CAZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222211Z - 230015Z COLD FRONT FROM NRN SIERRAS SSWWD ACROSS NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE S OF MRY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. VAD WINDS AT HNX INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HELICITIES UP TO 300 J/KG AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SBCAPES FROM 300-500 J/KG AT MOST...WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADOES COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES E/SE ACROSS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WITH SUCH LIMITED INSTABILITY...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..HALES.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 37982082 37792006 36811935 36121920 35581949 35462004 35832082 36232113 36872124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:29:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:29:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222228.j2MMScbg008012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222227 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / WRN KY / SERN MO / NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222227Z - 222300Z SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD ACROSS NERN AR / NRN MS AND WILL EXIT WW 68 SOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME SWRN KY TO MAINTAIN STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. THERFORE...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 34308932 36529051 37118964 37098847 36188782 35398763 35008822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:36:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:36:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222236.j2MMaLML014240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 CAZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222211Z - 230015Z COLD FRONT FROM NRN SIERRAS SSWWD ACROSS NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE S OF MRY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. VAD WINDS AT HNX INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HELICITIES UP TO 300 J/KG AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SBCAPES FROM 300-500 J/KG AT MOST...WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADOES COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES E/SE ACROSS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WITH SUCH LIMITED INSTABILITY...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..HALES.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 37982082 37792006 36811935 36121920 35581949 35462004 35832082 36232113 36872124  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:56:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:56:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222256.j2MMuP8o031539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222227 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / WRN KY / SERN MO / NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222227Z - 222300Z SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD ACROSS NERN AR / NRN MS AND WILL EXIT WW 68 SOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME SWRN KY TO MAINTAIN STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. THERFORE...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 34308932 36529051 37118964 37098847 36188782 35398763 35008822  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 23:12:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 18:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222312.j2MNC71h012647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222310 GAZ000-FLZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 70... VALID 222310Z - 230045Z STRONGLY ORGANIZED MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 35-40KT ACROSS WARE...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...CAMDEN... AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SERN GA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT FROM PUTNAM COUNTY NWD TO DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NERN FL. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE MAXIMIZED FOR CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR...OR CROSSING... THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER NERN FL INTO SERN GA...AND WHERE BOWING LINE SEGMENT INTERSECTS THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29678133 29368316 30728316 31078241 31678238 32148132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 00:10:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 19:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230010.j2N0ADkF030358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230009 ALZ000-MSZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS WRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230009Z - 230215Z PORTIONS OF ERN MS...WRN AND CNTRL AL MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH THIS EVENING IF STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT WARM SECTOR OVER MS/AL HAS SO FAR KEPT TSTM DEVELOPMENT QUITE LIMITED DESPITE OTHER SIGNS OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WV IMAGERY DEPICTING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST...AND FCSTS OF DPVA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL FCSTS WITH ETA...RUC...WRF AND ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATING STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND CONVECTIVE QPF FROM ECNTRL MS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL INTO LATE THIS EVENING. IF STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...VERY POTENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50KT WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO FAST MOVING ORGANIZED STORMS AND A NEW WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34008864 34038776 33878671 32838631 31748609 31218610 31108683 31088807 31078897 32168950 32908853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 00:25:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 19:25:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230024.j2N0Oq8R009797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230024 SCZ000-GAZ000-230100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67... VALID 230024Z - 230100Z WELL ORGANIZED MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED BOWING SEGMENTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WERE MOVING OFFSHORE FROM SAV TO CHS THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WEDGE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS... 31337965 31558133 32718092 33238015 33137922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 01:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 20:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230140.j2N1eLqU005885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230139 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL...SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 69... VALID 230139Z - 230215Z CLOUD TOP WARMING AND GENERAL DECREASE IN RADAR REFLECTIVELY SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO WATCH 69 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ONE EXCEPTION IS PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED CELL NOW TRACKING ACROSS WEDGE FRONT OVER DOUGHERTY COUNTY AND TOWARD LEE COUNTY GA. THIS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INGEST RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... THE REGION IS BETWEEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING TO THE WEST...AND INTENSE MCS TO THE EAST...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NRN FL. MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION AND AIR MASS RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE SHORT-TERM...OTHER WATCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30978535 31198438 31758367 31738316 29728324 29728527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 01:49:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 20:49:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230148.j2N1mWvq012545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230147 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-230315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN NERN MS / NWRN AL / SWRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71... VALID 230147Z - 230315Z STRONG CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW AND FORECAST INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH DURATION OF WW. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH TIME GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AS STORMS MOVE NEWD WHERE INSTABILITY DECREASES. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE RISES AREA-WIDE LAST HOUR WHILE PROFILERS SHOW VEERING 850 MB WIND FIELDS...SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE DECREASE. NONETHELESS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ESPECIALLY ERN SECTIONS OF WW WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATEST. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34098683 34008920 36939018 36938761 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 03:37:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 22:37:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230337.j2N3bG57006479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230336 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72... VALID 230336Z - 230500Z CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET OF 80KT TRANSLATES ACROSS MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM AL INTO WRN GA. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND WRN GA SHORTLY. STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN AL ATTM. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR FOCUSED ALONG WARM/WEDGE FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG A NW-SE LINE FROM MSL TO BHM TO MGM. STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO OR ALONG THE WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY HIGH 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250-300 M2/S2 AND THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS UPPER TROUGH SPREADS GRADUALLY EWD...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL AND WRN GA SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 30908690 30818845 32038853 34288814 34298583 33538514 33188467 32808378 31978372 31158453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 04:13:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 23:13:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230412.j2N4CkJ4002851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230411 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230411Z - 230615Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS... AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT CONVECTION IN WRN TN IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS AIRMASS IS STILL TRYING TO RECOVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE ALSO FORMING IN THE FAVORED ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH 06-08Z TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. LATEST VWP DATA FROM NASHVILLE TN SUGGESTS SFC-1KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 35 KT...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60 KT AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KM. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...DAMAGING WIND OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UPON FURTHER REVIEW...A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM GIVEN CONTINUED BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. ..TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN... 34348571 34348767 36318758 36338716 36278586 36168508 35918500 35378525 34918537 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 05:38:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 00:38:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230538.j2N5cJ45006346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230537 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-230700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL AND PARTS OF WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72...73... VALID 230537Z - 230700Z STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 72...AND WILL MOVE INTO NEWLY ISSUED WATCH 73 SHORTLY. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED LATE TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS WARM SECTOR OVER SCNTRL AL. MOST PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED CELL WAS NEAR SQUALL LINE WARM FRONT INTERSECTION RECENTLY ANALYZED OVER ERN CHILTON COUNTY AL. THIS PARTICULAR STORM APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH MESOSCALE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAP STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS PRONOUNCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AIDED BY 80 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30828692 30838847 32348702 33098634 33168604 32988428 32968366 30788412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 07:18:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 02:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230717.j2N7HvF7011655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230717 FLZ000-230915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230717Z - 230915Z WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS REGION...AND MOVE ONSHORE FL W COAST FROM GULF -- PRIMARILY BETWEEN LEVY/ALACHUA/PUTNAM/ST JOHNS COUNTIES SWD TO TBW-MLB LINE. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND NEBULOUS...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SMALL CINH...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TRENDS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY MAY BE ARRANGED ALONG S EDGE OF LARGE PRECIP PLUME NOW EVIDENT FROM LEVY COUNTY SWWD OVER GULF...N OF WHICH SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN LOW 60S F. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THAT PLUME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F...DEW POINTS APCHG 70 F...AND NEARLY SFC-BASED MUCAPE OF APPROXIMATELY 1500 J/KG. TBW VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG FOR SLIGHT RIGHT--MOVING STORMS AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AMBIENT KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE ALSO WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 50-60 KT. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG SERN EDGE OF PRECIP PLUME WHERE BAROCLINICITY IS STRONGEST. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28548346 29358263 29918183 29978135 29458110 29068079 28728055 28478076 28158146 27848271 28008344 28418350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 07:29:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 02:29:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230728.j2N7Sdcc019100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230727 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72... VALID 230727Z - 230830Z WW 72 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING OVER S-CENTRAL AL ALONG TAIL END OF ACTIVITY EXTENDING NEWD INTO FAR NRN GA...APPEARS SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. WITH STRONGER CELLS MOVING INTO TORNADO WATCH 73... AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH STORMS ALONG TAIL END OF LINE REMAINING WEAK...WILL ALLOW WW 72 TO EXPIRE AT 08Z WITHOUT RE-ISSUANCE. ..EVANS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34298846 34288584 31308659 30838701 30888917 33218894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 07:37:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 02:37:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230736.j2N7aa3s023768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230735 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-230900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA S OF WW 73 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230735Z - 230900Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DISCUSSION AREA BECAUSE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM GULF ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION. EXTENSIVE PRECIP PLUME IS EVIDENT FROM NERN GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA...MOVING TOWARD JAX. AIR MASS NW OF THAT AREA IS RECOVERING -- ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC AMIDST 50 KT LLJ. INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED WITH INLAND EXTENT ATTM...WITH SFC-BASED BUOYANCY PRESENTLY CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND SWD OVER SHELF WATERS AND NRN LOOP CURRENT. HOWEVER... CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA OFF GULF MAY RESULT IN DOWNWARD MIXING AND INLAND SHIFT OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS MORE OF CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 70...BUT 2000-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE BECAUSE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WELL TO N OVER GA. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEARS OF 55-65 KT -- AND 200-350 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH FOR ANY RIGHT-MOVING STORMS...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30958653 31028586 31068514 30998344 30858323 30568333 30388375 30128415 29628502 29418544 29648619 29918659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 08:13:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 03:13:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230812.j2N8Cai5015558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230811 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AL...SWRN/CENTRAL/NERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...74... VALID 230811Z - 231015Z GENERAL DECREASING TREND NOTED WITH BAND OF CONVECTION LOCATED AT 8Z FROM ATL METRO AREA SWWD TO INVOF TOI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 20-30 KT ACROSS WWS -- LOCALLY FASTER WHERE LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS ACCELERATE. ONE OR BOTH WWS MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATIONS IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PIEDMONT FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG LINE FROM CAE...AGS...30 N MCN...TO INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOUNDARY INVOF LGC. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE DISTINCT DEPTHS OF INFLOW-LAYER ELEVATION AGL...RELATED TO SHALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER OF DIABATIC COOLING S OF PIEDMONT FRONT AND MORE STATICALLY STABLE/DEEPER FRONTAL LAYER OVER NRN GA. PRIND SEVERE PROBABILITIES -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH BOWS -- IS DIMINISHING AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO SEGMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG AND S OF FRONT WHERE STABLE LAYER IS SHALLOWEST. LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVEN NEWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS AWAY FROM THIS AREA...AND RESULTANT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COMPONENT MORE PARALLEL TO CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 33258565 33508563 34158247 33148244 32958349 31048421 31068692 33248615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 09:17:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 04:17:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230917.j2N9HIL1028964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230916 SCZ000-GAZ000-231045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN SC...S-CENTRAL AND ERN GA...E OF WWS 73/74 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230916Z - 231045Z LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL GA MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 9Z...PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...EXTENDED FROM VICINITY ABY NEWD TO NEAR AGS. WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSIFYING TSTMS EXTENDED FARTHER NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SC. ACTIVITY WAS INTENSIFYING IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WARM SECTOR LOCATED SE OF PIEDMONT FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM CAE...AGS...50 WNW MCN. OTHER...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SWRN GA AND CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE MAY LINK WITH GA LINE OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. WEAK LAPSE RATES IN LOWEST 50-100 MB LAYER AGL MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. HOWEVER...ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH 250-350 J/KG...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BOWS AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31178444 32208378 33588230 34238151 34148076 33418091 32488135 31338215 30938329 30988422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 11:23:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 06:23:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231122.j2NBMpfQ018242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231121 FLZ000-231315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 231121Z - 231315Z BROAD BELT OF CONVECTION -- ALIGNED NE-SW -- COVERS MUCH OF NRN AND W-CENTRAL FL. A FEW POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MINI-SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED IN SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS BAND AS OF 1115Z...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PENINSULA...AND AS CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN A CLUSTER WELL OFFSHORE...LEADING EDGE 60-75 NM W SRQ ATTM...WHICH COULD AFFECT SWRN PORTIONS WW IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS SHELF WATERS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST...BUOYANT AND SHEARED. SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SUPPORT NEARLY SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS...LITTLE TO NO CINH...AND AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. THOSE SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH REGIONAL VWP...SUGGEST AROUND 200 J/KG SRH ON 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. ANTICIPATED VEERING OF SFC FLOW -- ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTURE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CAROLINAS -- MAY REDUCE CONVERGENCE/S-R INFLOW AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR TIME BEING...TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27418115 27418313 29348250 29348051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 13:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 08:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231347.j2NDlMdQ012441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231346 FLZ000-231445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 231346Z - 231445Z REMAINDER WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME BEING...AND AREAS FARTHER SE WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW AS SFC HEATING INCREASES BUOYANCY. PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND NOTED BOTH WITH CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FL...AND ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE SRQ REGION. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PROFILES STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...PER BLEND OF MLB VWP AND 12Z MFL RAOB...CONVECTIVE MODE AND ORIENTATION APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE ATTM. ONE OFFSETTING FACTOR WHICH MAY REKINDLE SEVERE THREAT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...IS DIABATIC SFC HEATING THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER E-CENTRAL AND SRN FL. MODIFIED MFL RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH REMOVED WITH ONLY 2-3 DEG F MORE SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS 72-74 F AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED ALONG SE COAST. THIS YIELDS MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...DESPITE SOME VEERING OF SFC WINDS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28458080 27188008 26408001 26188019 25908081 25788144 26078201 27418313 29348250 29348051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 15:48:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 10:48:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231547.j2NFllNg007407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231546 FLZ000-231615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 231546Z - 231615Z NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR CENTRAL INTO SRN FL. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AT 1530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SEMINOLE COUNTY SWWD TO OFF THE COAST AT CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE OVER THE ERN GULF. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED A WEAKENING COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE INLAND LINE OF STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERING SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS ERN AND SRN FL SUGGESTS FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REST OF ERN INTO SRN FL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. AREA WILL...HOWEVER...REQUIRE CONTINUED MONITORING SINCE CIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS SRN FL WHERE VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27218251 27398183 28358146 28378047 27208010 26128007 25628023 25598100 25728143 25858180 26738245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 16:43:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 11:43:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231643.j2NGh778001021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231641 WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-231745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231641Z - 231745Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV AND SWRN VA. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN KY WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE HEATING BENEATH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHILE 15Z RUC INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LOW... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIMITING FACTOR ATTM FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE IS THE FORECAST OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY SHOWS SIGNS OF GREATER VALUES THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ERN KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV/SWRN VA. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX... 36728462 37998387 38558295 38658062 36998108 35468241 34988385 35158491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 17:43:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 12:43:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231743.j2NHgxRS030924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231742 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-231915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NC AND SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231742Z - 231915Z MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING...ALTHOUGH WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATTM WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS NRN SC INTO SRN NC. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD ALONG/E OF SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW 25 E GSO SWWD TO 30 SE CLT TO 35 SE AHN. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG/E OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA. NWD EXTENT FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE DELINEATED BY A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO SRN DELMARVA. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS THE INSTABILITY BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... 34838062 35897958 36597819 37377682 37437564 36437546 35127526 34287689 33647831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 19:21:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 14:21:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231921.j2NJLFcO011714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231920 FLZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231920Z - 232045Z SRN FL IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF AT 10-40 MILES W OF THE FL COAST. THE AIR MASS OVER SRN FL HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. DESPITE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS BEING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SRN FL ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN GULF LINE OF STORMS. THUS... FORWARD SPEED AND OVERALL POTENTIAL DEGREE OF SEVERITY OF THIS LINE WILL BE MAINLY FORCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. CURRENT SPEED OF THIS LINE /AROUND 27 KT/ INDICATED A LOW THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES ATTM AND INTO THE REST OF THE SWRN PENINSULA BY 20-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN MOTION AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 26818237 27408026 26517994 25318018 24988072 24968103 25808180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 21:51:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 16:51:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503232151.j2NLpD53003949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232150 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NC INTO SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232150Z - 232245Z WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF NC INTO SERN VA. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN VA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO 45 N RWI AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN NC TO NWRN NC AT 40 N HKY. A LEE TROUGH DELINEATING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE EAST EXTENDED FROM THE COLD FRONT NW OF RWI SWWD TO NEAR CAE. AIR MASS LOCATED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WRN NC AND S OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN DRYING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA DETECTED AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN NC AS THE LEADING EDGE OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MID LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS SPREAD EWD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...BUT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FURTHER AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA AS THE UVVS SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI OF THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 36488033 36747983 36757853 37207707 37317594 36597580 35847555 35417551 34937644 34757789 34887978 35088100 35368201 35978101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 01:49:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 20:49:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503240148.j2O1mwgl016748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240147 NCZ000-240315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76... VALID 240147Z - 240315Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP NEAR FRONT ACROSS ERN NC / WITHIN WW 76. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS NC ATTM...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ATTM FROM WILSON COUNTY ENEWD TOWARD ALBEMARLE SOUND. THOUGH EVENING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ RAOB SHOWED LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REVEALED BY THIS RAOB AND RAX /RALEIGH NC/ WSR-88D VWP SUGGEST THAT A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL CONTINUES. ..GOSS.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 36317612 36307572 35297578 35258023 35757810 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 03:15:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 22:15:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503240314.j2O3EuS2024143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240310 NCZ000-240415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC / THE OUTER BANKS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76... VALID 240310Z - 240415Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING A LONE SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO NRN DALE COUNTY -- CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS E CENTRAL / NERN NC WITHIN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 76. STORMS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST N OF COLD FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN NC ATTM. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WW 0076 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 24/04Z. ..GOSS.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 36317612 36307572 35597526 35167546 35317731  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 03:29:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 22:29:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503240328.j2O3ShBp003490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240327 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-240900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY...SRN VT/NH...MA...CT AND RI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 240327Z - 240900Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN VT/NH AND ERN MA THROUGH 06Z...WHILE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SRN/ERN NY DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS NRN CT/RI AND WRN/SRN MA THROUGH 09Z. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT WORKING IT/S WAY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCES OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEFORMATION ALONG A LINE FROM SRN NY EWD INTO WRN MA/NRN MA. A VERY DRY AIRMASS NOTED BELOW 700 MB EXISTS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS 03Z OBSERVED DEWPTS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW PROGRESS OF THE HVY SNOWFALL BANDS INTO THIS REGION AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO SATURATE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM HVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS HVY SNOW INTO BOS/FAR NERN MA AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z AND FAR SRN VT/NH BETWEEN 05Z-07Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM NY...DEFORMATION HVY SNOW BAND CURRENTLY OVER SCENTRAL/ECENTRAL NY WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THIS AREA THROUGH 09Z. EXPECT HVY SNOW TO END IN THE BGM AREA/SCENTRAL NY AROUND 06Z...AND IN THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/ECENTRAL NY BY AROUND 09Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM... 43077073 42857556 42337662 41927608 41527315 41657140 41836987 42496986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 18:59:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 13:59:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503241859.j2OIx4LT020819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241858 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE KS...NE OK...SW MO...NE AR CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 241858Z - 242100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON. EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION ...AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS BY EARLY EVENING. INFLUENCE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ONGOING WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. MOISTURE VALUES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE STILL RATHER LOW...BUT STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY SATURATING LOW/MID-LEVELS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF BETTER MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS SHOULD...IN TURN...SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TULSA OK AREA AS EARLY AS 24/21Z...BEFORE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD WITH FORCING...INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 25/00Z. MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH/WEST...SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED...OR CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING...IF AT ALL. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36539641 36919573 37639467 37439318 37089302 36379306 35209402 34779490 34819565 35489676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 19:05:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 14:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503241904.j2OJ4oLk026530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241903 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE KS...NE OK...SW MO...NE AR CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 241903Z - 242100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON. EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION ...AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS BY EARLY EVENING. INFLUENCE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ONGOING WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. MOISTURE VALUES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE STILL RATHER LOW...BUT STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY SATURATING LOW/MID-LEVELS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF BETTER MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS SHOULD...IN TURN...SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TULSA OK AREA AS EARLY AS 24/21Z...BEFORE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD WITH FORCING...INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 25/00Z. MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH/WEST...SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED...OR CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING...IF AT ALL. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36539641 36919573 37639467 37439318 37089302 36379306 35209402 34779490 34819565 35489676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 20:05:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 15:05:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242005.j2OK59CV021827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242004 FLZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242004Z - 242200Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242124.j2OLOG1j006194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242123 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242123Z - 242330Z ...RETRANSMITTED... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:27:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:27:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242126.j2OLQOoR008174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242125 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242125Z - 242330Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:32:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:32:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242131.j2OLVqAM013946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242123 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242123Z - 242330Z ...RETRANSMITTED... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:33:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:33:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242132.j2OLWlE2014748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242125 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242125Z - 242330Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:02:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:02:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242201.j2OM1bhg011096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242200 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242200Z - 250000Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:03:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:03:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242203.j2OM3452012663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242202 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242202Z - 250000Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:16:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:16:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242216.j2OMGKcq024430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242215Z - 250015Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:20:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:20:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242220.j2OMKAsG028040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242200 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242200Z - 250000Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242220.j2OMKICl028173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242219 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0419 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242219Z - 250015Z .....RETRANSMITTED..... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:21:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:21:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242221.j2OML3Tk028701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242200 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242200Z - 250000Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:22:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:22:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242221.j2OMLVx0029106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242202 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242202Z - 250000Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:24:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:24:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242224.j2OMO5hW032230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242223 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242223Z - 250030Z .....RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:26:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242225.j2OMPPEW000856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242224 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242224Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:27:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:27:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242226.j2OMQRQv001774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242225 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242225Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED....... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:32:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:32:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242232.j2OMWE9Z006795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242231 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242231Z - 250030Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:40:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:40:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242239.j2OMds6M013592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242239 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242239Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:42:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:42:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242241.j2OMfhEB015155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242240 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242240Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:46:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242246.j2OMkHAs019057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242215Z - 250015Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:49:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:49:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242249.j2OMn1wL021742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242219 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0419 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242219Z - 250015Z .....RETRANSMITTED..... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:51:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:51:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242250.j2OMoRlN022892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242223 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242223Z - 250030Z .....RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:51:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:51:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242250.j2OMov7X023229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242224 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242224Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:51:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:51:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242251.j2OMp8dG023409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242225 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242225Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED....... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:56:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:56:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242256.j2OMu50O027821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242231 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242231Z - 250030Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 23:01:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 18:01:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242301.j2ON11nm031976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242239 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242239Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 23:02:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 18:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242302.j2ON2ATM032718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242240 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242240Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 23:03:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 18:03:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242302.j2ON2jPO000710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242301 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL / NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN MO / EXTREME NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242301Z - 250100Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AS LAPSE RATES SFC AND ALOFT INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU INCREASING NEAR WATONGA OK WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS THE NE. ADDITIONAL TCU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR ADA OK ON THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HAIL. MODIFIED 18Z LMN RAOB AND FCST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES. THUS...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES NEARING GOLF-BALL. ..JEWELL.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35669847 36709727 37239684 38069623 38299561 38279469 38299403 38289338 34659435 34439674 35629662 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 02:04:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 21:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503250203.j2P23vjo011732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250202 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-250330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / SWRN AR / WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77... VALID 250202Z - 250330Z SCATTERED STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK / WITHIN WW 0077...AND SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN MO / WRN AR. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS...WHICH HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 1 1/4 INCHES. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SEVERAL STORM SPLITS...WITH THE LARGEST HAIL THUS FAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT-MOVING / ANTICYCLONICALLY-ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH INSTABILITY FURTHER DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO SWRN MO / WRN AR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW. ..GOSS.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 37339518 37539338 37099285 35969291 33849364 33759510 33639641 33969723 36189668 36999648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 07:57:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 02:57:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503250756.j2P7ug9I029560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250755 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-250930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL INCLUDING THE PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250755Z - 250930Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH SUNRISE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AHEAD OF A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WLYS. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN GULF AND NRN FL. A STRONG LEFT-MOVING SPLIT HAS BEEN LONG-LIVED AND WILL MOVE INTO NCNTRL FL THROUGH 09Z...WITH OTHER SPLITS OCCURRING WEST OF KTLH. MORE STORMS ARE APT TO FORM ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELEVATED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LARGE HAIL THREAT GOING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BUT...ISOLD NATURE TO THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ATTM. IF STORMS SHOW MORE ORGANIZATION OR IF THE HAIL THREAT BECOMES GREATER...A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30668706 31688399 31718286 31738140 31418061 30208041 28358037 27728261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 08:13:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 03:13:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503250813.j2P8D1w9008583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250812 ARZ000-250945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78... VALID 250812Z - 250945Z TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED TO SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS SINCE 06Z ACROSS NWRN AR...INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CELLS ARE LIKELY BEING FED FROM UNSTABLE NEAR SURFACE BASED PARCELS UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN OK/WCNTRL AR WHERE MUCAPES OF 900-1000 J/KG ARE COMMON. KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT ONLY CONDUCIVE TO FORWARD PROPAGATION...BUT ALSO BACKBUILDING...WHICH HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR/N OF KFSM. THOUGH THE STORMS APPEAR ELEVATED...RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. UNLESS STORMS BECOME MORE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ISSUED. BUT...WILL CONTINUE WW 78 UNTIL THE 10Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... 34969442 35759434 36479355 36459181 35709101 34759155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 16:08:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 11:08:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503251607.j2PG7xu3031735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251607 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251607 FLZ000-251800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FLORIDA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 79... VALID 251607Z - 251800Z CONTINUE WW. SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST SHORTLY...AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE COULD TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY. HOWEVER...30 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BIG BEND. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE THREAT...AND POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...BUT SURFACE HEATING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN PENINSULA AREAS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS CLUSTER MOVES BACK ONSHORE. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/NORTH OF CEDAR KEY INTO THE OCALA AREA BY THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30038389 30108307 29928221 29618174 29168169 28958187 28778225 28818263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 16:24:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 11:24:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503251623.j2PGNSWk008544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251622 SCZ000-GAZ000-251815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80... VALID 251622Z - 251815Z CONTINUE WW...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE CURRENT 20Z EXPIRATION...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 18Z. STRONGEST CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT CLEARS COASTAL AREAS...AS SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THUS...RISK OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HAIL CONTINUES IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH INSTABILITY WANING. ..KERR.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... 31528121 31618193 31938254 32288259 32598192 32718079 32667986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 02:04:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 21:04:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503260203.j2Q23LOB005821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260202 TXZ000-260400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82... VALID 260202Z - 260400Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OFF WW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED S AND E OF CURRENT WW. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM NOW MOVING ACROSS LLANO COUNTY. THOUGH THIS SUPERCELL STORM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF SURFACE FRONT...ITS MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SLIGHTLY SURFACE-BASED -- AND THUS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG WITH HAIL. WITH OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SHOULD PERSIST -- AND MOVE ESEWD OUT OF CURRENT WW WITH TIME...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED S AND E OF CURRENT WATCH. ..GOSS.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30070062 30450143 32419870 33169782 33459586 31399491 30039501 30469826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 04:27:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 23:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503260426.j2Q4QUu5029888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260425 TXZ000-260600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83... VALID 260425Z - 260600Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN 2/3 OF WW AREA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERE STORM EXITING BASTROP / ENTERING LEE COUNTY TX ATTM...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN TX. THIS STORM REMAINS THE ONLY ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORM ACROSS WW AREA...AND HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR IN BOTH RADAR AND IR IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...STORM STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31009732 31519470 30099438 29519744 30359718 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 06:57:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 01:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503260657.j2Q6vHFL022499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260656 TXZ000-260830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260656Z - 260830Z AN INCREASING RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX THIS MORNING. A WW MAY BECOME REQUIRED. RECENT RADAR SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ACROSS WCNTRL TX NEAR/NW OF KSJT. THIS REGION IS BEGINNING TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM A NM UPPER LOW. AS THE LOW ROTATES CLOSER...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX AND SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RUC40 OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARCELS FEEDING THESE STORMS WILL ORIGINATE FROM OVER SCNTRL TX AND MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 900-1100 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL AVERAGE AROUND 40 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT. INITIAL...AND A LARGE SHARE OF ANY SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT IF STORMS CAN BUILD SWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT... DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATER THIS MORNING FROM NEAR/S OF A ROCK SPRINGS...LLANO...GEORGETOWN...WACO LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK NEWD FROM THE WCNTRL TX ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX...PERHAPS REACHING TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND WACO BY 12Z. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32220158 32709911 32419731 31949705 31029698 29659713 29399905 29300095 30930172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 10:21:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 05:21:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261021.j2QALHO1010038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261020 TXZ000-261215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84... VALID 261020Z - 261215Z NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DARKENING TREND/JET STREAK MIGRATING INTO THE TX BIG BEND AREA. INCREASING UVV ON THE NOSE OF THIS JETLET AND RESULTANT ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION REGIME ARE PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCAPES OF 800-1100 J/KG AND AN AVERAGE 40 KTS OF SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. SO FAR...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED WITH UPDRAFT BASES AOA 4800 FT AGL. BUT...ONE OR TWO TSTMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO N-S LINEAR STRUCTURES AND BEGIN TO BOW. THIS COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY S OF A KSJT-KFTW LINE. VAD WIND PROFILERS FROM AREA RADARS SHOW THAT THE LAYER OF STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THIN...LESS THAN 500 METERS THICK. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. STRONGEST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING MCS. THAT WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 45S KMAF-35S KABI-SEP-45NW KAUS-45S KJCT-KP07-45S KMAF THROUGH 14Z. BACKBUILDING OF THE TSTMS INTO THE SANDERSON-FORT STOCKTON AREAS WILL PROBABLY PROLONG ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX THROUGH THE MORNING. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29680174 30880299 32050274 32910151 32999810 29659829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 11:39:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 06:39:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261139.j2QBdAs2009607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261137 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261137Z - 261330Z THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS WEAK H5 RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SRN PLAINS TROUGH. TROPICAL AIR MASS/WARM FRONT... CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S DEW POINTS...WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD ON INCREASING SLY FLOW AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OFFSHORE NRN FL. STORMS ARE LIKELY FEEDING OFF PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACCELERATES...STORMS ARE APT TO BACKBUILD WWD AND EXPAND EWD FROM EXTREME SRN AL TO NRN/CNTRL FL. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONALITY OF THE FLOW AOA H85 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STEEP AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNINGS...BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER STORM. MOREOVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADDED THREAT LATER THIS MORNING AS UPDRAFTS BEGIN TO ROOT LOWER. AS THE CONVECTION EVOLUTION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND LOCATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREATS BECOME EVIDENT...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF NRN-CNTRL FL/EXTREME SRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...LIX... 30348851 31038683 30868477 30548254 30018126 28588069 27788086 28088313 28578659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 12:13:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 07:13:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261213.j2QCD8ib023011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261212 TXZ000-261315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84... VALID 261212Z - 261315Z UNLESS TSTMS BEGIN TO SHOW A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...THE THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW 84 IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. H5 JETLET CONTINUES TO WRAP EWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO ERN TX THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN EWD TREND IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR KTPL. THE ONLY NEGATIVE WILL BE THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. BUT...THIS MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CURRENT WW. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHALLOW AND DOWNBURSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS WELL. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRONGER UVV/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE KSJT/KMAF AREAS SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29850174 31140153 32299968 32459649 31009636 29899757 29399892 29470113 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 15:09:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 10:09:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261508.j2QF8iE3001963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261507 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261507Z - 261700Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES. TRENDS ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODELS ...AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES IS UNDERWAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...LONGER TERM PROSPECTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING INFLUENCE OF BUILD RIDGE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30338874 31058876 32058821 32718679 32438500 31888315 31278215 30878171 30078133 29358117 28838181 28448263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 15:14:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 10:14:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261513.j2QFDxSa004081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261513 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261513Z - 261715Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES. TRENDS ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODELS ...AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES IS UNDERWAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...LONGER TERM PROSPECTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING INFLUENCE OF BUILD RIDGE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30338874 31058876 32058821 32718679 32438500 31888315 31278215 30878171 30078133 29358117 28838181 28448263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 16:07:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 11:07:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261606.j2QG6dvN028611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261605 TXZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261605Z - 261800Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 85 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS...AND IS NOW SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT/LUFKIN/COLLEGE STATION/ AND SAN ANTONIO...WITH A SHALLOWER COLD SURGE NOSING INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF STRONG DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THIS IS MAINTAINING VERY MOIST POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BENEATH DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH...IS SUPPORTING BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS. STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS IN BAND APPROACHING INTERSTATE 35...NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO INTO THE WACO AREAS. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...LIKELY REACHING THE TYLER/LONGVIEW/LUFKIN AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLLEGE STATION INTO AREAS EAST OF SAN ANTONIO BY 21Z. MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR TOWARD THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...AS HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS FROM SOUTH OF FRONT BEGINS TO FEED INTO ACTIVITY. WITH MUCH OF ACTIVITY BASED ABOVE RELATIVELY SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...LARGE HAIL MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...CELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR FRONT...IN AREA BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO/AUSTIN/VICTORIA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE/WHEN RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 30049878 31269783 31929689 32219617 32299546 32049454 31489445 30539472 29959536 29189667 28679767 28679912 29069959 29429928 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 18:44:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 13:44:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261843.j2QIhJNE008125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261842 TXZ000-NMZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 261842Z - 262045Z LIMITED RISK OF STRONG/ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...STRONG COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT 500 MB JET DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY DESTABILIZING MECHANISM. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY AROUND 21Z...AS LOW-LEVELS COOL AND LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33090557 33430516 33890472 33980414 33550350 32730325 31900336 31690396 31910506 32540563 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 19:15:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 14:15:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261914.j2QJEwTw021726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261914 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LA AND MS...SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261914Z - 262115Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY...RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 18Z SOUNDING FROM SLIDELL LA INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SINCE 12Z. DEEP NEAR SATURATED LAYER WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO ENVIRONMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WHICH HAS HEATED INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS THIS OCCURS...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY BY 21Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS ARE ALREADY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000-2000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29889338 30979349 32159246 32889126 32278906 31948834 31468771 30928738 30298758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 19:52:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 14:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261951.j2QJpPLG004230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261950 SCZ000-GAZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN AND CNTRL GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86... VALID 261950Z - 262145Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 86. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW FARTHER NORTH. LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FINALLY WEAKENING. NEW FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...EAST OF ATLANTA GA INTO AREAS SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SC. BRANCH OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EASTERN GEORGIA...AND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33688509 34088404 33658245 33528108 32797997 31588065 31278151 31358254 31738357 32468494 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 21:15:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 16:15:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262115.j2QLFBSb010105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262114 MSZ000-LAZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW LA INTO CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262114Z - 262145Z ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO INCLUDE AREAS NORTH/WEST OF WW 87. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30849335 31589254 32409192 33319039 32868950 31739000 30839081 30159187 30019291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 22:44:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 17:44:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262243.j2QMhGe3016043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262242 TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX/CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO FAR NRN MS/WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262242Z - 270045Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST TSTMS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR NE TX/CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO FAR NRN MS/WRN TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF WEST TX UPPER TROUGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME EXPECTED TO SPARK INCREASING AREAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM NE TX TOWARD FAR NRN MS/WRN TN THIS EVENING. NORTH OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE...21Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN LA/NRN MS TO 250 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND/ABOVE 850 MB. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER /E.G. DEQUEEN PROFILER/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WITH A PREDOMINANT HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34809279 35689113 36528957 36138884 35288873 34478942 33789087 33049248 32729398 32799494 33589513 33879474 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 22:52:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 17:52:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262251.j2QMpqYb019124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262251 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-262345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262251Z - 262345Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL GA INTO NRN FL... NUMEROUS...INTENSIFYING SUPERCELLS ARE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ASSUREDLY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN GA AND NRN PORTIONS OF FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32538510 32748200 32098057 30528143 30208313 30478570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 23:55:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 18:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262354.j2QNsrY4010310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262354 ALZ000-MSZ000-270100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 87...88... VALID 262354Z - 270100Z ...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON... DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF AL WILL SOON MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIFTS NWD INTO REGION. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY POSE MOSTLY A HAIL THREAT...OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE SURGE SPREADS NWD AHEAD OF SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE PARAMETERS SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31738985 33538848 33118555 31418560 31688759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 03:19:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 22:19:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270319.j2R3J3Lp019593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270318 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270318Z - 270415Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM NERN LA INTO SERN AR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ATOP SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS OVER NERN LA IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WITH PARCELS ROOTED AOB 850MB FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...PER 00Z SHV SOUNDING. IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT REGION JUST NW OF THE COLD FRONT. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33079252 35249072 34529006 32909090 32099171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 04:46:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 23:46:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270445.j2R4jH40018660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270443 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...GA...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 92...93... VALID 270443Z - 270545Z ...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCHES. SEVERE THREAT IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO NERN FL/SERN GA WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS SERVED TO ANCHOR A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL...ARCING NWWD INTO CENTRAL AL...SERVING AS THE DEMARKATION OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS AND MOST ACTIVITY SEVERE WEATHER HAS OCCURRED NEAR THIS ZONE. WITH TIME THIS BOUNDARY/SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD LIFT NWD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 33298776 32878620 30818290 29658377 30358639 31458810 32058923  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 05:34:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 00:34:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270533.j2R5XqBZ004565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270532 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-270630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91... VALID 270532Z - 270630Z ...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF MS... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS LIFTING NEWD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH INTO WCNTRL PORTIONS OF WW...VERY NEAR JAN. PERSISTENT E-W WARM FRONT THAT HAS SERVED AS A CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TONIGHT WILL SOON LIFT NWD IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALLOWING NRN MS TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE ANY STORMS THAT REDEVELOP ALONG THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY COULD ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES. FARTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SPREADING NEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY REALIZE HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS MS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33629111 34389049 34738899 33988817 32368891 31919048 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 06:54:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 01:54:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270653.j2R6rjrY002163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270652 LAZ000-TXZ000-270845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST/ERN TX AND WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270652Z - 270845Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE AND POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SEVERE TSTM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. MAIN PORTION OF PARENT UPPER LOW WAS SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VIGOROUS UVV BEGINNING TO AFFECT ERN TX. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG H85 FRONT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE SABINE RVR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...HIGHEST HAIL RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE KLCH AREA THROUGH 10Z. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28639757 29479652 31069560 32089455 32299326 31669204 29899169 28539232 27589546 27519730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 07:15:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 02:15:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270714.j2R7EuKn009305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270714 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-270845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...THE DEEP SOUTH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...92...93... VALID 270714Z - 270845Z TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING. TORNADO WATCHES 91...92...93 AND 94 REMAIN IN TACT AND WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH AS NEEDED. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW VCNTY KJAN WITH A TWO WARM FRONTS EXTENDING EWD...ONE FROM KJAN EWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRATIFORM RAIN INTO CNTRL GA AND THE PRIMARY FRONT THROUGH SRN AL INTO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL. MAIN COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED THROUGH SCNTRL LA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SERN MS/SWRN AL BORDER INTO THE BOOTHVILLE LA AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN STREAMERS ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION AND MATURE INTO TSTMS INLAND AS THEY APPROACH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL AND SWRN GA. RECENT TREND IN SURFACE OBS SEEM TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BOOSTING 0-1KM SRH VALUES. VWP FROM EOX EXHIBITS TREMENDOUS HELICITY WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 480 M2/S2. THOUGH THE 06Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWED A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ERN FL PNHDL MAY BE S OF THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT...WITH A WEDGE OF SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN FL PNHDL...CNTRL/SRN AL AND SERN MS...OR JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MAIN STORY THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS UPSTREAM AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. TSTMS ARE ALREADY RE-FORMING OVER ERN TX /WITH LEAD STORM NORTH OF HOUSTON MOVING AT 70 KTS/. EXPECT MORE STORMS TO FORM FROM SRN MS/ERN LA AND EXPAND ENEWD INTO WRN FL PNHDL AND SRN AL BY 12Z. ALL INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE FOR A RENEWED TORNADO THREAT AT THAT TIME. FARTHER E...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER FAR SERN GA AND NERN FL AND THE TORNADO WATCH 94 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 30599113 32348978 33618850 34298749 34228489 32918520 31938253 31158101 30048148 29558345 29568674 29899118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 08:28:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 03:28:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270827.j2R8RwBV001582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270827 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270827Z - 270930Z EVIDENCE POINTS TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...ACROSS SERN AL...SWRN GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL THROUGH 12Z. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED AS WT 91...92 AND 93 EXPIRE AT 10Z. VAD WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE AND HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SERN AL AND SWRN GA. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD WITH RENEWED ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH VCNTY MOB. INCREASING STORMS...APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG KINEMATICS SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RATHER HIGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30188887 32158676 32568578 32168410 31508285 29638331 29768664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 09:29:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 04:29:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270928.j2R9SN7f024569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270927 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...92... VALID 270927Z - 271000Z TORNADO WATCH 91 AND WRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 92 WILL EXPIRE AT 10Z. THOSE COUNTIES WILL NOT BE IN A WATCH AFTER 10Z. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM SERN AL...SWRN GA AND WRN FL PNHDL SHORTLY. MAIN COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL LA AT 09Z AND IS AWAITING FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER TX TO TRANSLATE EWD BEFORE RESUMING AN EWD MOVEMENT. STRONGEST TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DOWNSTREAM AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF MS AND WRN AL. HOWEVER...STRONG UVV CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WILL MOVE INTO LA AND WRN MS BY 12Z. AT THAT TIME...NEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND POSE A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE MS VLY...THEN A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER IN THE MORNING FARTHER EAST. THUS...WT 91 AND WRN PORTIONS OF WT 92 WILL EXPIRE ON TIME. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER IN THE MORNING...PRIMARILY AFTER SUNRISE TO COVER ANY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31019112 32508965 34278898 33458722 32298728 31358765 30168867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 09:49:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 04:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270949.j2R9n3eK031277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270948 LAZ000-TXZ000-271115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95... VALID 270948Z - 271115Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS WS 95 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THE TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SETTLE ESEWD WITH A CENTER VCNTY KABI AT 0930Z. VWP/PROFILERS DEPICT THE CORE OF THE 80-90 KT H5 JET CURVING ACROSS SERN TX WITH VIGOROUS UVV IN EXIT REGION OVER THE SABINE RVR VLY. THIS HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS THIS MORNING... WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE H85-H7 FRONT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO PULSE AND HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OFFSHORE SERN TX IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN LIKELY DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE SURFACE-H85 FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN LA TOWARD 12Z. THOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF STORMS CAN BECOME LONGER-LIVED THAN THEY HAVE BEEN SINCE 06Z...EXPERIMENTAL LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS VALUES SUGGEST THAT A FEW LEFT-MOVING HAIL PRODUCING MEMBERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LA LATER THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY FROM W-E ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND THE WW WILL BE TRIMMED BY 11Z. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 28749580 30649584 31339218 29629145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 12:25:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 07:25:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271225.j2RCPAvY025329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271224 LAZ000-271430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95... VALID 271224Z - 271430Z 12Z LCH RAOB SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS LIMITED WITH MUCAPE OF 266 J/KG. STRONG ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD INTO SWRN LA...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME MAINTAINING CHARACTER. MORE INSTABILITY WAS OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM AT LIX AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GIVEN TRENDS...WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 14Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29129372 31199329 31239190 29629136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 12:55:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 07:55:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271254.j2RCsRXi004789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271253 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-271500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL AND SWRN/SCNTRL GA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 96... VALID 271253Z - 271500Z VAD WIND PROFILERS/12Z RAOBS INDICATE TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST INTO SRN GA THIS MORNING. JACKSONVILLE AND PENSACOLA VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW 50 KTS OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SIGNIFICANT TURNING/VEERING THROUGH 2KM. THE SOUNDINGS AT TLH/JAX DO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A STABLE LAYER...BUT ANY HEATING WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LAYERS AND MAKE FOR A MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...SUPPORTING TSTMS. ANY TSTM THAT FORMS WILL HAVE A TORNADO/SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL CELLS WITHIN THE E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SERN AL AND SWRN GA HAVE SHOWN ROTATION...BOTH IN THE MID/LOW-LEVELS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A BRIEF DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FARTHER SW...THE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CLEAR THAT AREA AND 70 SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN. NEXT STRONG UVV SIGNAL IS SEEN IN RADAR/SATL IMAGERY CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER. AS THIS VIGOROUS ASCENT ARRIVES OVER THE WARM SECTOR...A RAPID DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER MS VLY NWD INTO SERN MS AND THEN CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. THUS...ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INCLUDING TORNADOES...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A SECONDARY...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT...THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST THROUGH 15Z IN A 25NM CORRIDOR FROM KDHN-KABY-55NW KAYS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING TOWARD THE HIGHER THETA-E AXIS UPSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL AL...THEN TRAINING ENEWD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL GA. THIS PROCESS MAY LAST A FEW HOURS...CREATING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29728822 31608662 32348382 32308229 29638435 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 15:10:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 10:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271509.j2RF9G4O026912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271508 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-271545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0908 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96... VALID 271508Z - 271545Z TORNADO WW 96 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW SHORTLY. 70 TO 90 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TEXAS COAST. AREA OF FOCUSED HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE /AS EVIDENT IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF RETURN OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS AIR MASS OVER INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA WARM WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30438766 31118718 31388615 31238512 31218378 31418282 31538208 31278150 30598126 30098158 29758234 29698345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 17:08:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 12:08:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271707.j2RH7oZR006508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271706 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-271800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...PARTS OF NW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271706Z - 271800Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS ALABAMA...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ALABAMA...IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF MOBILE...BUT INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORENCE/DECATUR AREAS...WHERE DEEPENING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS...WHICH IS ALSO PROVIDING FORCING FOR ONGOING STORMS. THOUGH CONVECTIVELY COOLED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO EASTERN ALABAMA WILL PROVIDE EASTERN LIMIT...AT LEAST NARROW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS IS DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THIS LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR DEVELOPING LOW COULD AID TORNADO DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... 31368772 31788802 32988788 33918776 34838716 35068610 34818549 34278526 33878501 33628515 32968546 32418593 32048630 31558688 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 18:15:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 13:15:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271814.j2RIEIlG001086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271813 GAZ000-FLZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97... VALID 271813Z - 272015Z RISK OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUE WW. STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE AT INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE WITH THIS FORCING...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG BRANCH OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL GEORGIA. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT...SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK GA INTO THE VALDOSTA GA/DOTHAN AL AREAS...LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH MODIFIES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AS LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH BACKED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE RISK FOR TORNADOES IN CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/ACROSS THIS ZONE. BENEATH 35 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30758147 30718217 30858331 31028395 31328499 31838508 32298467 32338387 31878259 31678144 31548115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 18:52:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 13:52:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271851.j2RIpp70015056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271850 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL/ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271850Z - 272115Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN ARRIVING DYNAMIC ASCENT...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO KY. GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED NATURE OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY N/NW OF NRN AL SFC CYCLONE/INVERTED TROUGH...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST ROBUST TSTMS. AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...18Z OBSERVED BNA RAOB/18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 750-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS MIDDLE TN MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 850 MB...AMIDST SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FOR ROTATING ELEVATED STORMS. FURTHER NORTH INTO KY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR EPISODIC THREAT OF HAIL AROUND/ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS. ..GUYER.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35568643 34818794 34938893 35618894 36848813 37668693 38328523 38418376 37938326 37658313 36968411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 20:26:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 15:26:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503272025.j2RKPBDE018561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272024 GAZ000-ALZ000-272230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...98... VALID 272024Z - 272230Z INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS ONGOING...RISK OF TORNADOES IS INCREASING...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUE WWS. INCREASING INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON INSTABILITY AXIS IS APPARENT BY NOTABLE INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM IS NOW BELOW 1000 MB...AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS INTO THIS REGION...AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN WARM SECTOR ENHANCES SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WESTERN FLANK OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND DOTHAN WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS THEY ENCOUNTER BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 31988703 32658752 33498774 34098793 34868709 33918610 33368593 32818568 32558500 31788515 31568599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 20:57:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 15:57:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503272056.j2RKuFcP030163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272055 GAZ000-ALZ000-272300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97... VALID 272055Z - 272300Z AFTER TEMPORARY BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SEVERE THREAT... INCLUDING RISK FOR TORNADOES...STILL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIDED BY SEA BREEZE...CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD ...INLAND ACROSS THE JACKSONVILLE AREA. HOWEVER..FARTHER WEST...IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND BACKING SURFACE FLOW WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH...BOUNDARY IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING AROUND ALBANY GA AND AREAS NORTH OF VALDOSTA. RISK FOR SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 28/00Z...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32278491 32488407 31978290 31288271 30998311 30978357 31268444 31538497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 23:09:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 18:09:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503272308.j2RN8LZc015319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272307 NCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...SRN KY...WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99... VALID 272307Z - 280030Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SRN KY SHORTLY... MODIFIED MOISTURE SURGE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL KY AHEAD OF NEWD-MOVING SFC LOW. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTH OF EXISTING WW...ESPECIALLY SERN PORTIONS OF KY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS REGION...HOWEVER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS MIDDLE TN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KY FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... 36978273 37668539 37138720 35348651 35128427 35288223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 01:02:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 20:02:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503280102.j2S12A75028086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280100 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-280200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100... VALID 280100Z - 280200Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW... SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED SE-NW ACROSS WW TO NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL TN. THIS BOUNDARY HAS PROVED THE MAIN DEMARKATION BETWEEN MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND MODIFIED AIR WITH A DECIDEDLY ELY COMPONENT ACROSS NERN AL INTO ECNTRL GA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR LIFT QUICKLY NEWD...CROSSING THE BOUNDARY INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW ZONE WHERE TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BEFORE UPDRAFTS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT UNTIL LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE REPLACES CURRENT REGIME. ..DARROW.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN... 34908604 33958520 31828238 29758133 29518379 30028532 32318615 34728690 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 02:11:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 21:11:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503280211.j2S2B6gu027796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280210 KYZ000-TNZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101...99... VALID 280210Z - 280315Z DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS NEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS NERN AL INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF SFC LOW. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS PERSIST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHERE UPDRAFTS APPEAR QUITE ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... 35028609 36558733 38278444 36378483 35168453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 09:09:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 04:09:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503280908.j2S98Oio005631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280906 NCZ000-SCZ000-281030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SRN NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 280906Z - 281030Z TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND NUMBER OVER CNTRL/SRN SC SINCE 08Z. SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EXISTS OVER CNTRL/ERN SC AND A FEW OF THESE PARCELS ARE BEING INGESTED INTO THE STORMS. TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ELEVATED AND THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PROBABLY RANGES FROM 1500-2000 FEET THICK PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS. THUS...DESPITE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...THE PROBABILITY OF DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE GROUND IS LOW...BUT NOT NECESSARILY NON-ZERO. SO...AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... BUT RISK IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A CONVECTIVE WEATHER WATCH. AS THE STORMS MOVE FARTHER NE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EVEN WEAKER THAN FARTHER SW...SO THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NC. ..RACY.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32578093 33918099 34838125 35627944 34797743 33417737 31887991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 12:57:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 07:57:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503281256.j2SCuwUd028336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281256 NCZ000-VAZ000-281430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281256Z - 281430Z INTERESTING SCENARIO HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS ERN NC THIS MORNING. TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VCNTY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN NC WAS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WITH MORE THAN 30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THE COAST MOST OF THE MORNING AND A FEW CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OVER SERN NC. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 14Z AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...A SUPERCELL NEAR KCHS SPLIT EARLIER IN THE MORNING WITH THE LEFT-MOVING MEMBER MOVING NWD AT NEAR 80 KTS THROUGH THE KRDU AREA WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. STORM MORPHOLOGY WAS RATHER COMPLICATED WITH BOTH ANTICYCLONIC AND CYCLONIC LOW-MIDLEVEL ROTATIONS DURING ITS LIFE CYCLE. OTHER STORM SPLITS MAY OCCUR AND A HAIL THREAT COULD EXTEND NWD INTO SRN VA THROUGH MID-MORNING. ATTM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IF CELLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPSWING IN ORGANIZATION...ONE MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33917797 34997876 36887846 36827597 34647550 33567701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 19:19:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 14:19:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503281918.j2SJIO9f023594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281917 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...MD...DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281917Z - 282115Z SEVERAL SHORT-LINES OF CONVECTION ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS ERN VA AND WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND/OR HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A LOW ACROSS SCNTRL VA. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LOW WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 70 KT WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED ROTATING STORMS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN VA INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. VAD WIND PROFILES IN MD SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. IN ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 36897597 37037701 37507785 38087801 38417772 38757701 38937619 38887546 38527501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 01:34:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 20:34:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503300133.j2U1XqB6022586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300132 NEZ000-KSZ000-300300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 300132Z - 300300Z ...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING... STRONG ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET HAS SPREAD NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NE-SW ACROSS NEB. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LBF INDICATES VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SFC-6KM...WITH LOWER 40S DEW POINTS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND SPREAD NEWD...MAINLY TO THE WEST-NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY WHERE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...APPARENTLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY CAPPED AIR MASS. LATEST THINKING IS A FEW STRONG STORMS...SOME PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WILL SPREAD NEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40780087 42089986 42279783 41529739 40619863 39689980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 03:02:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 22:02:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503300301.j2U31OeA010534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300300 KSZ000-OKZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 300300Z - 300430Z ...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND OK... STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FORCING PARCELS THROUGH CAPPING INVERSION FROM SCNTRL PORTIONS OF KS...SWD INTO CNTRL OK. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ONGOING ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE THE HAIL/WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SCNTRL KS WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35299782 36529766 38369818 39499736 39239628 37249622 35579669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 12:05:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 07:05:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301204.j2UC4HeH001370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301203 MNZ000-IAZ000-301400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA AND SCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301203Z - 301400Z TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA AND SCNTRL MN. THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT THE STRONG UPPER LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NERN KS WITH AN ENHANCED JET STREAK CURVING NEWD THROUGH WRN MO. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE MO RVR AND RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT VCNTY KOMA MAY BE THE START OF A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF STORMS. 00Z WRF AND 09Z RUC AGREE IN TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MO RVR BY 12Z...WITH STORMS THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN IA AND SCNTRL MN. A SMALL WARM SECTOR HAS EVOLVED OVER THIS AREA AND GIVEN MID 50S/MID 40S TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS... MUCAPE OF AROUND 750 J/KG IS LIKELY IN PLACE. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCREASING TSTM THREAT. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND GIVEN THE STEEPENING MID-TROP LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP...CONGEAL AND BEGIN TO ORIENT NORMAL TO THE MEAN WIND VECTORS. TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO SCNTRL IA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS FARTHER TO THE EAST. ..RACY.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41089578 42369615 42849645 45179483 45149343 44079314 42689357 41589395 40689483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:42:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:42:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301641.j2UGfiPZ008868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301640Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301646.j2UGktMt012721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301646 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301646Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:52:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:52:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301651.j2UGpcgH016324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301650 IAZ000-MNZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301650Z - 301815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN IA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN IL ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0 C/KM FROM NRN MO TO NCNTRL IA AND 850 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40649423 40959486 41269537 41809537 43469493 44289446 44229258 43649251 40919342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:56:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:56:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301655.j2UGte5L020085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301640Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:59:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:59:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301658.j2UGwlGh022849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301646 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301646Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:00:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:00:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301659.j2UGxeih023512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301650 IAZ000-MNZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301650Z - 301815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN IA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN IL ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0 C/KM FROM NRN MO TO NCNTRL IA AND 850 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40649423 40959486 41269537 41809537 43469493 44289446 44229258 43649251 40919342  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:05:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301704.j2UH4qwD028097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301640Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:10:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:10:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301709.j2UH95F0031850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301646 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301646Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301714.j2UHEEed003383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301650 IAZ000-MNZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301650Z - 301815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN IA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN IL ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0 C/KM FROM NRN MO TO NCNTRL IA AND 850 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40649423 40959486 41269537 41809537 43469493 44289446 44229258 43649251 40919342  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 18:10:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 13:10:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301809.j2UI9Fsi012824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301808 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301808Z - 302015Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INITIATE ACROSS WRN IL AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH AN HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NWD INTO IL WITH UPPER 50S F TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS IN SRN IL. AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ACROSS THE STATE...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM ABOUT 40 KT TO 65 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...AS CELLS INITIATE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN IL...RAPID SUPERCELL FORMATION SHOULD OCCUR. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT DUE TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL MAKE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 37968984 39079073 39829067 40708985 41038913 41018838 40618767 40008748 38688753 38038777 37588841 37688906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 19:16:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 14:16:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301915.j2UJFG2R001608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301914 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-302015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN IA...SCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301914Z - 302015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW TIME /20Z/ WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTING OVER NCENTRAL/NERN IA AND FAR SCENTRAL MN...AHEAD OF SFC/UPPER LOW TRACK. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NCENTRAL/NERN IA AHEAD OF 990 SFC LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF DSM. SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS NCENTRAL IA INTO SCENTRAL MN. WEST OF THIS FRONT...DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED TO THE NE OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO NERN IA BY 21Z. DEGREE OF SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES. THERE MAY BE A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NERN PORTION OF WW 103 WHERE A SVR THREAT WILL EXIST BEYOND 20Z FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT...AND TOR WW 104 JUST EAST OF THIS AREA...WW 103 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN IA. FARTHER NORTH IN SERN MN...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED THAT WOULD ALSO INCLUDE PARTS OF WCENTRAL WI. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41639370 42009413 42909381 44369320 44789175 44709043 43979045 43659227 41619313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 19:25:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 14:25:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301924.j2UJOoK8009001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301923 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NW IL AND FAR NE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104... VALID 301923Z - 302100Z SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW 104. THE STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS WW 104 DUE TO SFC HEATING AND AN APPROACHING 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE NORTH OF I-80 IN ERN IA AND NORTH OF I-74 ACROSS NRN IL DUE TO SMALLER SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-2 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 9.0 C/KM...WILL ALSO HELP TRANSFER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SFC...CREATING A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40099154 41119269 41899276 43389208 43689192 43679019 43678888 43438855 41658925 40208988 40079020 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 20:02:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 15:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302001.j2UK1nvK007366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302000 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-302030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SRN/CENTRAL WI...SERN MN AND ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...104... VALID 302000Z - 302030Z DUE TO ONGOING SVR THREAT OVER NERN IA DEVELOPING INTO SERN MN/SWRN WI AND SVR THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS ERN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 104 BEYOND 22Z /WW 104 EXPIRATION TIME/...A NEW TOR WW WBIS THAT WILL REPLACE WW/S 103 AND 104. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41639370 42009413 42909381 44369320 44789175 44709043 43979045 43659227 41619313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 21:09:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 16:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302108.j2UL8qqM026864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302106 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-302300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302106Z - 302300Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BEFORE 00Z. THUS A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 23Z. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS AIDED IN A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN AR. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS REMOVED FROM THIS STRONG ASCENT BY ABOUT 50-100 MILES AS EVIDENT BY CU FIELD OVER THE LOW MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL CINH REMAINS...ABOUT 25 J/KG...BUT ETAKF SOUNDINGS WHICH SEEM TO BE VERIFYING BEST AT 20Z WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S/DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S...INDICATED THAT CONTINUED HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE ANY REMAINING CINH BEFORE 23Z. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN TANDEM WITH A 2 MB/2 HR PRESSURE FALL MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR JONESBORO AR TO 30 EAST OF SHREVEPORT LA. IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK WHEN LOW LEVEL RH VALUES/DEWPTS INCREASE AND LCL HEIGHTS DECREASE. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 35049020 34439127 33639207 32629324 32279331 32089312 32049258 32719113 33689001 34788945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 21:20:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 16:20:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302119.j2ULJk7m001207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302118 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105... VALID 302118Z - 302315Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW 105 OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS TRACK NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN IL. OVER IL AND WRN IND...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD WITH AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUPERCELL APPROACHING THE I-39 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BLOOMINGTON AND ROCKFORD. THIS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL AND OTHER SUPERCELLS SHOULD AFFECT THE CHICAGO AREA BY 00Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG)...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... 39138916 40668892 41568922 42088977 42538954 42578882 42468802 42208748 41428707 40538695 39648715 38918764 38738830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 21:56:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 16:56:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302155.j2ULtSY3026786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302154 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-302300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...CENTRAL/SRN WI...NERN IA/NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106... VALID 302154Z - 302300Z ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER WW 106...MAINLY WITH LEAD SUPERCELLS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SERN/ECENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS. FARTHER WEST...LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO THREAT HAS LESSENED...BUT A SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR SERN MN..SWRN/CENTRAL WI AND NWRN IL AHEAD OF THIS LINEAR AS STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A RAIN COOLED AIRMASS BEHIND THIS LINE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT IS WANING OVER NERN IA...FAR SWRN WI/FAR NWRN IL. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER DODGE AND WRN FOND DU LAC CO/S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE OF NERN WI/LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF ECENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT HOUR. PRIOR TO MOVING INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL INTERACTION WITH NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT HOUR. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX... 41838887 42748762 43848890 44828989 45619071 44569252 44259261 42809159 41719032 41278956 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 23:25:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 18:25:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302324.j2UNOqQS013071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302324 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-310130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN IL...WRN IND AND SWRN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105... VALID 302324Z - 310130Z GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF WW 106...WHERE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN CHI METRO AREA/NERN IL AND FAR NWRN IN THROUGH 02Z. FARTHER SOUTH...LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE BE PRODUCE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND A MORE LIMITED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS ERN IL AND WCENTRAL IND. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 105 BEFORE 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN MI AFTER WW EXPIRATION TIME...BUT DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ENOUGH OF A SVR THREAT FOR A NEW WW. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH RECENT LOT VWP DATA INDICATING 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 300 J/KG WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER TORNADO THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 105 VALID TIME /02Z/ WILL REMAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS HEIGHTS AROUND 1 KM. FARTHER SOUTH IN WW 105...A PREDOMINANT NUMBER OF LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF TORNADOES. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM STL TO JUST WEST OF SPI MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL ISO SVR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN AROUND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 42428785 41368876 39988965 38988987 38458880 38528763 42168603 42918601 42858733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 00:49:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 19:49:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310048.j2V0mPrO026214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310047 MIZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310047Z - 310145Z SVR WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS CURRENTLY LK MI WILL MOVE INTO WRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LINEAR STRUCTURE EXHIBITED ON RADAR COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN THIS LINE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR... 42158631 43898643 44248635 44278547 44198480 43038476 42118498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:15:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:15:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310114.j2V1E8mb008625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310111 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310111Z - 310215Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:17:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:17:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310116.j2V1G8bU009640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310115 COR INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310115Z - 310215Z CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ERN IL/WRN IND IN AREAS AFFECTED ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:17:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:17:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310116.j2V1GGxf009696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310111 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310111Z - 310215Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:18:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:18:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310117.j2V1Havn010192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310115 COR INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310115Z - 310215Z CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ERN IL/WRN IND IN AREAS AFFECTED ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:36:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:36:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310135.j2V1ZqWZ020522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310134 ILZ000-WIZ000-310200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106... VALID 310134Z - 310200Z WW 106 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. SMALL TEMPORAL/SPATIAL THREAT FOR SVR WILL EXIST WITH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS COMING OUT OF FAR NRN IL INTO WALWORTH...RACINE..KENOSHA AND MILWAUKEE CO/S IN SERN WI DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AS EVIDENT BY 20 DEG SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREAD. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF RAPID NEWD MOTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE LAST REMAINING SVR THREAT OUT OF SERN WI BY 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... 42478808 42628863 43138866 43348826 43228775 42578766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:57:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:57:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310156.j2V1up28032200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310156 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN INTO MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310156Z - 310330Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT FROM VICINITY OF THE MS RIVER EWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NWRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0130Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER POINSETT..CROSS AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES IN NERN AR NEAR INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS ALSO DEEPENING FARTHER TO THE S FROM AROUND 40 NW OF JAN TO NEAR TUP WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 00Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CAP AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. HOWEVER...AIR MASS DRIES CONSIDERABLY NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN PER 00Z BNA SOUNDING. 00Z NAM DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH 31/06Z WILL OCCUR NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. STORMS MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NWD WITH EXTENT OWING TO COMPARATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR DE-COUPLING. NONETHELESS...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34009050 34579068 36098973 36508922 36408805 36398727 35718670 34918687 33748746 33758804 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 02:57:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 21:57:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310256.j2V2uEuG031450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310255 ALZ000-FLZ000-310430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310255Z - 310430Z ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD OUT OF WW 107 BETWEEN 03 AND 04Z. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER CNTRL AL. AS OF 0235Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MS INTO W-CNTRL AL...GENERALLY SHIFTING NEWD. STRONGEST STORM ON SERN FLANK OF COMPLEX OVER CLARKE COUNTY AL AS EXHIBITED PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION FOR THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LLJ AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS W/CNTRL AL OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING CONTINUED EWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A FEW STORMS ALONG SRN/SWRN FLANK OF COMPLEX MAY REMAIN MORE SURFACE-BASED OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MS INTO SWRN AL. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... 32848741 33298709 33548643 32878584 31988597 31178652 30698723 30568789 30788828 31088831 31368752 31698752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:13:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:13:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310412.j2V4C8nR003829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310411 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-310545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS INTO W-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 107... VALID 310411Z - 310545Z THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN PORTIONS WW 107 AREA...GENERALLY N OF I-20 AND E 0F I-55. AS OF 0345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL AL MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AXIS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. CORRESPONDING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THUS LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER S...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOISTER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33619031 33628738 30788870 30668934 31038935 31028984 31369007 31389133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:14:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:14:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310413.j2V4DO3n004723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310412 MIZ000-310515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... VALID 310412Z - 310515Z WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE BUT IS DECREASING WITH TIME. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES RISING PRESSURES AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...AND RADAR REPRESENTATION IS POOR. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 42138522 42228682 44168587 44098449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:18:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:18:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310417.j2V4HA8I006043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310411 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-310545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS INTO W-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 107... VALID 310411Z - 310545Z THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN PORTIONS WW 107 AREA...GENERALLY N OF I-20 AND E 0F I-55. AS OF 0345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL AL MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AXIS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. CORRESPONDING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THUS LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER S...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOISTER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33619031 33628738 30788870 30668934 31038935 31028984 31369007 31389133  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:18:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:18:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310417.j2V4HQgX006130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310412 MIZ000-310515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... VALID 310412Z - 310515Z WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE BUT IS DECREASING WITH TIME. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES RISING PRESSURES AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...AND RADAR REPRESENTATION IS POOR. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 42138522 42228682 44168587 44098449  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 05:46:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 00:46:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310545.j2V5jP5S014324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310544 GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-310715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND NW GA...SE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310544Z - 310715Z A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS AL TOWARD WRN/NWRN GA AND SE TN. THIS CONVECTION HAS A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL REPORTS...BUT INSTABILITY WEAKENS TO THE NE OF AL. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR TO THE E/NE OF WW 110 IN AL...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..THOMPSON.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX... 32248427 32168498 32688526 33938541 35028537 35668493 35758439 34508390 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 06:54:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 01:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310653.j2V6rws2010460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310653 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-310830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL AND WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310653Z - 310830Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF SRN MS INTO SRN/CNTRL AL. 05Z JACKSON SOUNDING STILL SHOWED 2310 J/KG MUCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 52 KTS. LATEST RADAR SHOWED TSTMS BACKBUILDING SWWD FROM WCNTRL AL INTO SCNTRL MS AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILE CONTINUES ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-MS VLY UPPER LOW. FLOW REGIME WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME...BUT AIR MASS REMAINS PRIMED FOR TSTMS. MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP FROM SUSTAINED TSTMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LARGELY ELEVATED...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN ROOT LOWER INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN GA WITH WIND/HAIL THREATS POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31439090 32658962 33118858 33388734 33068597 32718445 32288425 31978571 31348729 30938896 31089081 31179101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 08:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 03:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310809.j2V89KuL005794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310808 TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-310945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN AND SERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 111... VALID 310808Z - 310945Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A DRIER WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN TN AND NWRN MS AS LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID-MS UPPER LOW. THIN BAND OF TSTMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD REGION OF TSTMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIN RIBBON OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F EXTENDS NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. MAIN AXIS OF THE LLJ IS BEGINNING TO VEER AND IS BECOMING INTERCEPTED BY INCREASING TSTMS FARTHER S. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IS RAPIDLY CLOSING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. MEANWHILE...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED STORMS FARTHER EWD ARE BEING FED FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS UPSTREAM. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER FROM THE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND PROBABLY WEAKEN OVER THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS IN A FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ACCELERATED DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE COALFIELDS OF SERN KY AND THE ERN TN MNTS. OTHERWISE...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34248809 35718750 36918591 37288387 36078381 34188551 34168612 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 11:37:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 06:37:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311136.j2VBa1cc024636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311134 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-311330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL AND SMALL PART OF WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112... VALID 311134Z - 311330Z CLASSIC BACKBUILDING/TRAINING MCS SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED OVER SERN MS TO WRN GA THIS MORNING. VAD WIND PROFILE AT MXX SHOWS A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL KINEMATIC PROFILE AOA 1KM WITH SPEED SHEAR REMAINING WEAK. INFLOW REGION TO THE STORMS RESIDES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WHERE HIGH THETA-E PARCELS ARE CONTINUING TO FEED THE UPDRAFTS. SET-UP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME SERN MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL AND WRN GA WHERE STORMS TRAIN. MEANWHILE...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE/BOW AS THEY MATURE AND ORIENT N-S...OR NORMAL TO THE MEAN 2-6 KM WIND VECTORS. SO NOT ONLY IS HAIL A RISK...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A THREAT. A CORRIDOR FROM 45 E KLUL-KAUO SEEMS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH 14Z. NOT ONLY WILL THE STORM ORIENTATION W.R.T. FLOW REGIME FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FARTHER EAST MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER SATURATES. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 31088928 32788916 33918717 34008507 32508493 32048510 31518649 31118693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 12:54:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 07:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311253.j2VCrvUe029746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311253 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-311400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...CNTRL/SRN GA...WRN SC...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112... VALID 311253Z - 311400Z WS 112 EXPIRES AT 14Z. THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS THROUGH LATE MORNING CNTRL/SRN AL INTO GA AND ANOTHER WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. 09Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT MAIN CORE OF THE H85 JET SHIFTS NEWD INTO ERN AL AND WRN GA THROUGH 15Z. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY AS HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT H5 TROUGH. THIS MAY LESSEN THE SEVERE/TSTM RISK WITH TIME THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN MS. BUT...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SRN AL AND PARTS OF GA TO CONTINUE THE HAIL/WIND RISKS THROUGH LATE MORNING. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 34088639 33918487 33808344 33838198 33468156 32548219 31968403 30998616 30748823 30848917 31508922 32098888 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 16:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 11:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311634.j2VGY4wP032390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311632 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-311800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 113... VALID 311632Z - 311800Z LIMITED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG SQUALL LINE FROM SRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL GA. HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ALSO PERSIST... ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AL ALONG SWRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EXIT SERN PARTS OF WW 113. WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SINCE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW FARTHER SE. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SRN AL NEWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA MOVING SEWD AT 20 TO 25 KT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE LIMITING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SEWD WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LINE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE CELLS TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE LINE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH PORTION OF LINE BETWEEN WILCOX AND LAURENS COUNTIES IN SERN GA WHERE DOWNSTREAM TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LARGER. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS ALSO MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION. THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS HIGHER OVER SRN AL ALONG SLOWER MOVING SWRN PARTS OF LINE WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRAIN LONGER. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31428545 30828741 31768744 32098628 32528443 33298298 33868243 33138230 32438250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 17:36:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 12:36:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311735.j2VHZnqR015080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311734 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 311734Z - 312130Z MOD TO HVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD OUT OF SERN CO/FAR NERN NM INTO FAR WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE RATON MESA THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...1/2 TO 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT /10 MB OVER 150 MILES/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE NWRN TX/OK PANHANDLE THROUGH 21Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NNWLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OVER SERN CO...WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEW AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOP COOLING/CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER SWRN KS WILL ROTATE INTO THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 5500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4000-4500 FT BY 21Z AS DYNAMIC COOLING ENSUES WITH HVY PRECIP. THUS A CHANGEOVER TO MOD-HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NERN NM...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN UPSLOPE REGION OF THE RATON MESA /LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO...NCENTRAL/NERN COLFAX COUNTY NM/ THROUGH 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38250329 38250400 37840445 37090463 36740470 36180405 35820349 35630287 35980211 36790193 37740213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 17:42:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 12:42:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311741.j2VHffhI019330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311740 MSZ000-LAZ000-311945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND EXTREME SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311740Z - 311945Z SERN LA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. LATE THIS MORNING...A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MS WWD INTO SERN LA. THE SERN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD WHILE THE WRN PART OVER SRN LA HAS STALLED. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY. WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER AND MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29499044 29959239 30969253 31409090 30928888 29948909 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 18:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 13:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311809.j2VI9J2v008204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311808 TXZ000-312015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311808Z - 312015Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF SAT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED JUST NW OF SAT. A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS NE-SW FROM THE LOW FROM SE OF DRT TO NEAR AUS. ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS LIMITED TO BELOW 850 MB...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MINIMAL CINH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW BY 20Z. THE DECREASING CINH FIELDS ARE NOTED BY MORE VIGOROUS CUMULUS GROWTH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE LAST HOUR. HOWEVER...VERY DRY MID LEVELS EVIDENT BY WV IMAGERY WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO UPDRAFTS...AND MAY LIMIT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS THE SHORT TERM MODEL SUITES SUGGEST WITH LACK OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AND STORMS DO INDEED INITIATE...THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX... 30549797 30159922 29680032 29200042 28799941 29149829 29529725 30049716 30359736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 20:17:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 15:17:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312016.j2VKGAaj026119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312015 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...EXTREME SW AL THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 312015Z - 312215Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH PORTION OF THE LINE OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SW AL. THIS AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE GA COAST WWD THROUGH SRN GA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN GA WWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PARTIAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY S OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER SW GA...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OBSERVED WHERE THE LINE INTERSECTS THE E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...AND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. FARTHER SW...THE LINE HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS PART OF THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE LINE WILL SUPPORT TRAINING/HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30778793 31508369 31688173 31068144 30608208 30408341 30388636 30328796 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 21:01:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 16:01:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312100.j2VL0gqW002965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312059 OKZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312059Z - 312300Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM WCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK BETWEEN 22-00Z. OVERALL THREAT AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE SUFFICIENT THAT A SVR WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z. RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXTENDED ALONG AN AXIS FROM ADM TO OUN TO CSM...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 70 AND DEWPTS WERE IN THE 38-44 DEGREE RANGE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND 1 INCH. DEGREE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED WITH SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WCENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK BETWEEN 22-00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34209592 34759621 35349710 35759825 35899888 35869945 35689980 35379980 35099965 34689904 34089757 33969705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 21:30:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 16:30:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312129.j2VLTJ8T029497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312127 MSZ000-LAZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312127Z - 312300Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. A STATIONARY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF MOBILE AL WWD THROUGH SRN LA JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS...THEN FARTHER WWD TO JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES. THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS HAVE LIKELY DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE TOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LA. MOREOVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29458847 29569042 29719212 31119201 31259091 31078915 30868854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 22:45:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 17:45:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312244.j2VMiZNk030762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312243 LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312243Z - 312345Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. A WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 23Z FOR MUCH OF E/NE TX. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN TX UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT BY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOIST SECTOR EAST OF I-35 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. TWO SCENARIOS FOR SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 1) HIGH BASED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN DRY AIR WILL MOVE EAST INTO MOIST AXIS OVER ERN TX AND BECOME ROOTED IN MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. OR 2) THE FORCING FOR THE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACTS ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH/SFC LOW OVER NERN TX AND AID IN SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH AND NW-SE WARM FRONT OVER ECENTRAL/NERN TX. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THUS GIVEN A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF MAINLY WIND/HAIL THREAT...WW WILL LIKELY BE SVR. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31119716 31979718 32829704 33779659 33779585 33509454 33099425 32039399 30829411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:21:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:21:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312320.j2VNKi8W023964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312317 LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312317Z - 010115Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AUS/SAT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 115. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU NOW FROM AUS TO SAT ALONG SFC TROUGH. INCREASING WNWLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE/TROUGH WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...THAT GIVEN WEAK CINH...ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT HOUR. AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY DISPLACED FROM STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING/COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND GIVEN WEAK STORM RELATIVELY INFLOW INTO THIS AREA...CONVECTION MAY END UP WEAKENING WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET BEFORE APPROACHING THE HOU METRO AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31119716 31979718 32829704 33779659 33779585 33509454 33099425 32039399 30829411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:30:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:30:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312329.j2VNT7lV029975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312328 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312328Z - 010030Z NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEE-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:32:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:32:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312331.j2VNVAAJ031192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312330 COR ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312330Z - 010030Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:32:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312331.j2VNVDkC031258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312317 LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312317Z - 010115Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AUS/SAT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 115. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU NOW FROM AUS TO SAT ALONG SFC TROUGH. INCREASING WNWLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE/TROUGH WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...THAT GIVEN WEAK CINH...ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT HOUR. AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY DISPLACED FROM STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING/COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND GIVEN WEAK STORM RELATIVELY INFLOW INTO THIS AREA...CONVECTION MAY END UP WEAKENING WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET BEFORE APPROACHING THE HOU METRO AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31119716 31979718 32829704 33779659 33779585 33509454 33099425 32039399 30829411  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:34:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:34:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312333.j2VNXpBW000882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312328 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312328Z - 010030Z NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEE-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:36:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:36:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312335.j2VNZZEP001988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312330 COR ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312330Z - 010030Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 04:14:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 23:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503010539.j215dPtF002308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010537 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MASS/NH/SRN VT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 010537Z - 011000Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MASS TO TRANSITION NNEWD ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES COMMON ALONG A CON-PSM-PWM-AUG-BGR-BHB CORRIDOR /INCLUDING I-95/ THROUGH 12Z. ADDITIONALLY...NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AT 05Z...APPROX 985 MB SFC LOW /REF NANTUCKET 44008 BUOY/ CENTERED APPROX 110 S OF ACK...WHICH IS ALREADY 1-4 MB DEEPER THAN 00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WRN EXTENT OF STRONG MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TRANSLATE NWD ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT...THUS PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW. PER 03Z RUC/00Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC LAYER /WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILES BELOW/ SUGGESTS MDT/HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WITH PERIPHERAL APPROACH OF DRY SLOT...PROXIMITY OF INCREASING /ALBEIT WEAK/ POTENTIAL INSTABILITY MAY FURTHER ENHANCE SNOW RATES...NAMELY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TOWARD 12Z. ADDITIONALLY...AS ALREADY SEEN IN 1-2 KM LAYER OF BOX 88D VAD...03Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 50+ KT 850 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN NH/DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH 09Z/12Z...WITH RESULTANT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 03/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 45077018 45266890 45086712 44786704 44126871 43616999 42757041 41816993 41897176 42007299 42737316 43657222 44527135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 1 11:47:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Mar 2005 06:47:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503011312.j21DCEYx002906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011311 MEZ000-NHZ000-011745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 011311Z - 011745Z BAND OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION NWD ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING...WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR COMMON. IN ADDITION...INCREASINGLY STRONG NELY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AT 12Z...APPROX 983 MB SFC LOW LOCATED OFF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST ABOUT 100 E ACK. AS SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION NEWD TOWARD COASTAL MAINE THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME/UPPER JET DIV COUPLED WITH REMNANT FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT /600-800 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD TRANSLATION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS NOTED IN 12Z GYX RAOB...09Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NWD EXTRAPOLATION OF VERTICAL PROFILES FEATURING STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE/DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER. IN ADDITION...STRONG NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH SFC WIND GUSTS HAVING ALREADY REACHED 30+ KTS INVOF COASTAL MAINE. IN ACCORDANCE WITH 09Z RUC GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF 50-60 KT 850 WINDS TRANSITIONING NWD ACROSS MAINE THROUGH 18Z...SIMILAR VELOCITIES SEEN IN 1-2 KM LAYERS OF GYX/CBW WSR-88D VADS. ..GUYER.. 03/01/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 47396819 46936775 45976766 45656771 44236969 43747076 44477111 45277079 46227006 47216947 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 19:32:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 14:32:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503032057.j23KvDBf031845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032055 MOZ000-KSZ000-032330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032055Z - 032330Z CONVECTION WAS INCREASING WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTING TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST WV IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD OVER THE MO RIVER VLY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER ERN KS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS LOW-MID 40S F/... MUCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 300-600 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO. CONTINUED QG FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MO THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND ONE-DIMENSIONAL HAILCAST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE MAXIMUM HAILSTONE SIZE AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FROM THESE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 03/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 40029294 38039208 37149308 37079470 37349587 38409596 40029492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 3 21:16:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2005 16:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503032241.j23Mf4U1009155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032240 TXZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TO CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032240Z - 040015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z TO THE EAST OF LBB/MAF...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR WRN TX...TO THE W/NW OF LBB. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY HIGH BASED...GIVEN LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...AND ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM NRN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TO THE EAST OF LBB...WHERE AN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE EXISTS FROM SRN TX NWD TO SJT AND TO THE WEST OF ABI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN INCREASING SLY LLJ THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN TX WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO STRONGER AXIS OF INSTABILITY. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 03/03/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 35070128 34279955 31529799 30629912 31330098 32430193 34410201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 21:47:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 16:47:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503042312.j24NCKZZ021477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042311 CAZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042311Z - 050015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS KERN AND WRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SINCE 2230Z FROM KERN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. DESPITE MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 C AT 500 MB/ ARE ATTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE. UNTIL THAT TIME...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 0-1 KM SHEAR AT 20 KT PER EDW VAD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..PETERS.. 03/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...MTR... 34492019 35302058 35932088 36182037 36271906 36121786 35431699 34831639 33841599 32871635 32931713 33611770 34151864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 4 22:32:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 17:32:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503042357.j24Nv3Lr014084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042355 CAZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042355Z - 050100Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS KERN AND WRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SINCE 2230Z FROM KERN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. DESPITE MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 C AT 500 MB/ ARE ATTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE. UNTIL THAT TIME...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 0-1 KM SHEAR AT 20 KT PER EDW VAD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..PETERS.. 03/04/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...MTR... 34492019 35302058 35932088 36182037 36271906 36121786 35431699 34831639 33841599 32871635 32931713 33611770 34151864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 5 01:03:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Mar 2005 20:03:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503050227.j252RmjO026318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050226 KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY INTO NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050226Z - 050400Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KY AND NWRN TN THROUGH 03-04Z...AND SPREAD ESEWD TOWARD ERN KY AND NRN TN. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND LIGHTNING SINCE 0130Z. AREA VADS SHOWED THE WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENED TO 50 KT AROUND 01Z...INDICATIVE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN IL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO TN COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 03/05/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35528858 36348938 37028903 37728769 38258496 38478384 37958296 36488321 35918514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 18:30:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 13:30:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503061954.j26JsuTG022962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061953 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NM...FAR WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061953Z - 062200Z ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NM...WEST OF ELP. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN REGION OF WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR WEST TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM BY EVENING. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOTED. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 03/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC... 31370960 33250920 34290751 34410566 33270512 32000503 30880533 31300627 31360738 31320842 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 6 21:44:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 16:44:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503062309.j26N92mf007480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062308 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB AND EXTREME SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062308Z - 070115Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT FROM N CNTRL AND NERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. EARLY THIS EVENING...A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL KS JUST W OF CONCORDIA TO JUST E OF HAYS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW VERY LITTLE CAP...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD AND AS THE BOUNDARY INTERCEPTS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR HAIL. ALSO...20+ LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY AS THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 03/06/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38689848 39939750 40939687 40969543 40159523 38659685 38249823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 01:02:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 20:02:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503070227.j272RRTH027577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070226 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO THROUGH MUCH OF IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070226Z - 070430Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NERN KS...NWRN MO INTO MUCH OF IA. ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW. WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD THROUGH KS AND NEB. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SEWD MOVING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION THROUGH NRN MO AND IA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN IA WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY ALSO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 03/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 38909647 42019456 43179260 42269066 39919323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 07:07:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 02:07:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503070832.j278WQte002537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070830 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL/ERN AND SRN MO/NRN AR/NE OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070830Z - 071030Z OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN OR NEAR STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK. EVAPORATIVE COOLING...IN LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS BELOW CLOUD BASES...IS ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF THIS RIDGE...SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z. WITH CAP WEAKENED...IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACCELERATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS CONDUCIVE TO HAIL...LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS/LOW CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SIZES. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37059591 37309457 37999306 38729175 39399012 39578919 38888769 38188785 37008863 36418966 36079102 35849314 36099511 36559643 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 7 07:10:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 02:10:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503070834.j278Yavq003854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070833 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL/ERN AND SRN MO/NRN AR/NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070833Z - 071030Z OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN OR NEAR STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK. EVAPORATIVE COOLING...IN LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS BELOW CLOUD BASES...IS ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF THIS RIDGE...SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z. WITH CAP WEAKENED...IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACCELERATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS CONDUCIVE TO HAIL...LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS/LOW CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SIZES. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/07/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37059591 37309457 37999306 38729175 39399012 39578919 38888769 38188785 37008863 36418966 36079102 35849314 36099511 36559643 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 02:38:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 21:38:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080403.j28439WM022725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080402 GAZ000-FLZ000-080530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SW GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47... VALID 080402Z - 080530Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA. THE HIGHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATE THIS EVENING A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE SWWD INTO THE NERN GULF MOVING EWD AT 35 TO 40 KT. ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC OVER GULF COUNTY FL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG ROTATION CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED WITH STORMS ON THE NRN END OF THE LINE WHERE SURFACE DATA ALSO INDICATES PRESENCE OF A MESOLOW AND PRESSURE FALLS. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE E OF THE MESOLOW...RESULTING IN LARGE...CURVED HODOGRAPHS. MOREOVER...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE SERN STATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION AND MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SW GA NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29268520 29798556 30778493 31168333 31168250 30508223 29608281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 03:01:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 22:01:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080425.j284Pr1C004030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080421 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-080545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 080421Z - 080545Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL GA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LINE OF STORMS JUST W OF MACON CONTINUES EAST AT 50 KT. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...THE LINE IS MOVING EWD FASTER THAN THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...AND NOCTURNAL COOLING IS OFFSETTING THE EFFECT OF THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOMEWHAT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE LINE CONTINUES EAST. AS A RESULT...TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE LINE TO WEAKEN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE LINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES AND LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LOW TOPPED...FORCED LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 31368211 31098476 32168500 33418301 33348174 32168148 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 06:04:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 01:04:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080729.j287TKSp017560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080728 FLZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47... VALID 080728Z - 080930Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS CURRENT WW /47/ EXPIRES AT 09Z. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTINUES... AND...BY 12Z...INTENSE WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING PATTERN...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM...IS ALREADY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS IN BAND SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THROUGH THE GAINESVILLE AND CROSS CITY AREAS. ACTIVITY EXTENDS OFF INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO AXIS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE CAPE. THIS MAY STILL YET SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST TROUGH WILL TAKE ON INCREASING NEUTRAL...THEN NEGATIVE TILT...ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 12-18Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA/FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS. COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/INCREASE IN SURFACE HEATING/AND MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...MOSTLY NORTH OF A TAMPA/ VERO BEACH LINE. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28918636 29428530 29398425 29478305 30008185 29948126 29018037 27938012 27438043 27378191 27678294 27648414 27708494 28108629 28278664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 06:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 01:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503080759.j287xU44000752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080758 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-080900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... VALID 080758Z - 080900Z RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM OF STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT THREAT MAY BE LOCALIZED/MARGINAL ENOUGH TO ALLOW WW 46 TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED AT 09Z. NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS IS CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE MACON AND COLUMBUS GA AREAS. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH APPEARS TO MINIMIZING EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS REFLECTED BY LIMITED CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES IN LIGHTNING DATA. SHALLOW NEUTRAL OR STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER ALSO APPEARS TO BE LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF PEAK GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF LINE. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES MAY SUPPORT SOME ACCELERATION OF LINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...AT LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREAD INTO GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 11-12Z. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31138144 30958302 30898432 31368483 31978378 32478308 33098225 33488162 33618062 33977937 34037800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 11:59:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 06:59:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503081323.j28DNc5f006276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081322 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-081345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081322Z - 081345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT...IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT SURGES EAST OF THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. ..KERR.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33758058 34588031 35487954 36397898 36637819 36627669 36057599 34687655 32957900 32918051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 15:01:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 10:01:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503081625.j28GPvcv016062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081624 NCZ000-VAZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48... VALID 081624Z - 081800Z SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NC. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL STORMS VACATE THE OUTER BANKS BETWEEN 08/17 AND 08/18Z. LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST...WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY STRONGLY-SHEARED AIRMASS. MORNING MHX RAOB AND LATEST VWP INDICATE 50 TO 60 KT WIND AT 1 KM INCREASING TO 85 TO 90 KT AT MID LEVELS...SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LINE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT REPORTS OF MEASURED 80 TO 100 MPH WIND GUSTS RECENTLY FROM IN AND NEAR WILMINGTON NC...A FEW ADDITIONAL VERY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS EVENTS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS REACH COASTAL NC / THE OUTER BANKS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 36597719 36557589 35667548 35287551 34557648 33897806 35237740 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 17:49:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 12:49:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503081914.j28JEJCW015034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081913 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MA/NH/MAINE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 081913Z - 082315Z SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MA/NH INTO MAINE...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES COMMON. ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVY SNOW...FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH/DOWNEAST MAINE...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AT 18Z...APPROX 977 MB SFC LOW CENTERED SOUTH OFF OF LONG ISLAND AROUND 85 SSE ISP...WITH STRONG DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PROGRESS NEWD...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERSPREAD OF STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER /600-850 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY FOCUS HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG A SSW-NNE ORIENTATION FROM MA INTO SRN MAINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH 1-2 IN/HR RATES LIKELY. ON ERN PERIPHERY OF HEAVIEST SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...15Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS/PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST FZRA/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION ACROSS ERN MA/SE NH...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND/AFTER 00Z OWING TO CAA/DYNAMIC COOLING. ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...A MORE PRONOUNCED CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF PWM-AUG-BGR-RKD AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z OWING TO ENCROACHMENT OF 750-850 MB WARM LAYER. ..GUYER.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44267193 46227024 46976946 46756848 46306805 44746857 44106908 43457062 42357108 41967100 41777225 41947279 42417293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 19:38:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 14:38:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503082102.j28L2seW024478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082102 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / TX S PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082102Z - 082230Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLAINS -- PERHAPS INTO WRN N TX AND FAR SWRN OK AS WELL AS SWWD INTO SERN NM -- IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH A CONDITIONAL / LOW-END SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION FROM ROUGHLY LBB TO 35 W CDS...AND ALSO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM. DRY / DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THOUGH THIS DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...COLD MID-LEVEL AIR /NEAR -20C/ AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING HAS YIELDED IN MINIMAL INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/. ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /AOB 25 KT THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE/ SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY / LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS...WITH COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THREAT FOR A MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL / WIND REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UNLESS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 03/08/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33500284 33910213 34660027 34809958 34439935 33719971 32570134 32050288 31880474 32540529 33280516 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 8 23:46:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 18:46:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503090110.j291ApaC002998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090109 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-090515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MA/NH/MAINE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 090109Z - 090515Z MDT/HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS ERN MA/ERN NH...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR/CNTRL MAINE. RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING NWLY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AT 01Z...969 MB SFC LOW /REF BUOY 44008/ CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF NANTUCKET...WITH DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-5 MB/2-HR MAXIMIZED OFF COASTAL MAINE. ON NW PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS PORTRAY SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ORGANIZING/CONTRACTING FROM ERN CT AND CNTRL/ERN MA INTO NH AND SRN MAINE. 21Z RUC/18Z NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM ERN MA INTO INTERIOR MAINE AMIDST DEFORMATION BAND/ERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL /600-850 MB/ FORCING. AS ALREADY SAMPLED IN DOWNSTREAM ENX/OKX VADS AND 00Z OKX RAOB...21Z RUC SUGGESTS NEWD TRANSITION OF 50+ KT 850 MB CORE FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO INTERIOR MAINE THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACCORDINGLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACROSS ERN MAINE...21Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FZRA MAY PERSIST THROUGH APPROX 04Z-06Z INVOF A BHB /BAR HARBOR/ TO HUL /HOULTON/ AXIS OWING TO EXISTENCE OF 800 MB WARM NOSE ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..GUYER.. 03/09/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 43087185 45137100 47306955 47386844 47096773 46466780 45386796 44346848 43657001 42827064 41797057 42087194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:28:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:28:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132028.j2DKS9Qx019044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121016 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-121515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0416 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...RI...MA...VT...NH AND ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 121016Z - 121515Z SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 15Z. RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AREA LIFTING NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE IS BEING MANIFESTED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN NY THROUGH CONNECTICUT AND WRN MA. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED DEFORMATION AXIS FROM VT/NH SWD THROUGH MA AND CT AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES NEWD. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX SHIFTS NEWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION SNOWS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF ME. SNOWFALL RATES MAY ALSO BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DUE TO PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..DIAL.. 03/12/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 41717080 41457278 43467308 44897176 45447014 45466850 44746817 43307076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKanok022309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 ALZ000-MSZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS / CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132013Z - 132215Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING CENTRAL MS...EWD ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 19Z JAN SOUNDING MODIFIED USING CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-80 INDICATE NO INHIBITION WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH COLD OUTFLOW WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32658976 33568936 33778845 33938661 33958610 33918563 32378578 32338703 32438890 32598951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKap40022322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 ALZ000-MSZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS / CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132013Z - 132215Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING CENTRAL MS...EWD ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 19Z JAN SOUNDING MODIFIED USING CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-80 INDICATE NO INHIBITION WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH COLD OUTFLOW WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32658976 33568936 33778845 33938661 33958610 33918563 32378578 32338703 32438890 32598951  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKarga022350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132013 ALZ000-MSZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS / CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132013Z - 132215Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING CENTRAL MS...EWD ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 19Z JAN SOUNDING MODIFIED USING CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78-80 INDICATE NO INHIBITION WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. WIND PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VEERING LOW LEVELS AND 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH COLD OUTFLOW WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32658976 33568936 33778845 33938661 33958610 33918563 32378578 32338703 32438890 32598951  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKaqma022343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131950 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CENTRAL TX/NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131950Z - 132215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS BY 2200Z. AIR MASS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO MUCH OF MS/AL. PROBLEM ATTM IS THAT CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CINH VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 100 J/KG. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW JUST W OF SHV SWWD THRU CLL AND S OF ERV /S CENTRAL TX/. ALSO A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER NEWD INTO NWRN AL. RUN AND AM MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN INITIATION WITH LATEST RUC BEGINNING OVER W CENTRAL/CENTRAL MS...THEN BACKBUILDING INTO NERN LA BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/00Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS JUST E OF SURFACE THERMAL AXIS FROM BETWEEN VCT AND HOU NEWD INTO NERN LA. AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME E CENTRAL TX...FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER ENEWD BETWEEN SHV AND IER. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN JAN AND TVR. BUT WOULD THINK THAT FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS LA. MAIN THREAT INITIALLY AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31669070 31509160 31329277 31259428 31719494 32369465 32759451 32849401 32849297 32879173 33009088 33008962 32188988  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 20:36:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 15:36:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132036.j2DKapgC022327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131950 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-132215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CENTRAL TX/NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131950Z - 132215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS BY 2200Z. AIR MASS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO MUCH OF MS/AL. PROBLEM ATTM IS THAT CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CINH VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 100 J/KG. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW JUST W OF SHV SWWD THRU CLL AND S OF ERV /S CENTRAL TX/. ALSO A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER NEWD INTO NWRN AL. RUN AND AM MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN INITIATION WITH LATEST RUC BEGINNING OVER W CENTRAL/CENTRAL MS...THEN BACKBUILDING INTO NERN LA BETWEEN 13/21Z AND 14/00Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS JUST E OF SURFACE THERMAL AXIS FROM BETWEEN VCT AND HOU NEWD INTO NERN LA. AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME E CENTRAL TX...FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER ENEWD BETWEEN SHV AND IER. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN JAN AND TVR. BUT WOULD THINK THAT FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS LA. MAIN THREAT INITIALLY AT THIS TIME WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31669070 31509160 31329277 31259428 31719494 32369465 32759451 32849401 32849297 32879173 33009088 33008962 32188988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 22:28:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 17:28:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132228.j2DMSx5N010111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132228 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E CENTRAL AL / NRN GA / NWRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132228Z - 140000Z STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ISOLATED LOW-END SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A FEW STORMS NOW FORMING WITHIN SURFACE THETA-E AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...ALSO AIDED BY WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD OVER AL. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INSTABILITY IS LOW AND DAYLIGHT IS FADING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SW...OFFSETTING DECREASED INSOLATION. A FEW ISOLATED SVR HAIL REPORTS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 32968568 34098563 34558322 34798258 34668201 33758189 33528274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 13 23:03:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 18:03:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503132303.j2DN3p5L024029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132302 LAZ000-TXZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SE TX...W-CENTRAL/NWRN LA S OF WW 49 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132302Z - 140100Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN PORTION WW 409 SWWD ALONG PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT/TROUGH LINE TOWARD AREA JUST NNE HOU. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE NWRN LA...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NE THROUGH S-CENTRAL TX...AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/TROUGH LINE FROM CYCLONE SWWD ACROSS WRN HARRIS COUNTY TX. AS LATTER BOUNDARY MOVES EWD -- PERHAPS OVERTAKEN NEXT 2-3 HOURS BY FRONT -- CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED. THIS IS EVIDENT ATTM IN CORRESPONDING LINE OF DEEP CU AND TCU SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY. VEERED SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND PREVENT STRONGER CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...40-50 KT FLOW AROUND 6 KM AGL -- AS OBSERVED IN E TX/LA PROFILERS AND REGIONAL VWP -- WILL CONTRIBUTE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IN MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-1800 MLCAPE IN THIS REGIME. MAIN CONCERN IS SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR OPTIMAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY NOW THAT DIABATIC HEATING HAS PASSED PEAK. SUNSET WILL RESULT IN DECOUPLING OF NEAR-SFC LAYER AND LARGE INCREASE IN SBCIN. STRONG CAPPING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FARTHER S OR SW ALONG FRONT OR PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND LIMIT COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER DISCUSSION AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 03/13/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31519253 31209291 30529411 30099512 30169547 30359532 30989459 31629378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 00:49:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 19:49:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503140049.j2E0nsn3005670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140049 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-140245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL AL...CENTRAL MS...N-CENTRAL/NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49... VALID 140049Z - 140245Z SEVERE TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING HAIL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW AREA. WW MAY CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS LA...HOWEVER ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BOTH IN AND N OF WW OVER PORTIONS MS/AL MAY POSE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK. 00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SSEWD ACROSS REGION...LOCATED NEAR THE LINE RMG...10 S CBM...20 S MLU...25 SE LFK...VCT...COT. FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE TX AND WRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. CELLS WITHIN 10-15 NM AHEAD OF NEAR ZONALLY ALIGNED FRONTAL SEGMENT -- OVER NERN LA/MS/AL...MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITH ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT-HAIL THREAT AS THEY CROSS FRONT AND ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY... BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED N OF FRONT. 2.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED PAST HALF HOUR HINDS COUNTY MS...WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THAT HAS BEEN RIGHT MOVING ENOUGH TO STAY ALONG OR BARELY AHEAD OF FRONT. 4.25 INCH HAIL REPORT ALSO HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM MADISON PARISH LA. MODIFIED JAN RAOB SHOWS MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE PARCEL BUOYANCY DECREASING THROUGH 500-800 J/KG RANGE...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED DIABATIC SFC COOLING. STILL...GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEARS 50 KT...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND NEARLY SFC BASED CELLS -- FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AT LEAST. ..EDWARDS.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...SHV...LCH...HUN...MEG... 31849321 32329227 33219102 33588649 32458650 32228930 32028974 31669076 31229224 31169311 31279329 31689322 31829319 33229102 33659053 34508888 34938698 34688581 34258578 33508797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 03:18:35 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2005 22:18:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503140318.j2E3IcJn016940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140317 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN GA...CENTRAL AL...MS...CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49... VALID 140317Z - 140445Z PRIND REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 4Z. MEANWHILE BROKEN LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDED AT 3Z FROM CLEBURNE COUNTY AL SWWD TO VICINITY HEZ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD 10-15 KT AS CELLS MOVE GENERALLY EWD. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH SWD/EWD EXTENT AS THIS ACTIVITY EXITS WW. OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR MINOR WIND DAMAGE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER WW EXPIRES...HOWEVER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF NIGHT. ACTIVITY N OF WW AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MS/AL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT SHOULD NOT BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL ORGANIZED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW. DIABATIC COOLING HAS REMOVED SBCAPE ACROSS REGION ALONG AND S OF SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 3Z VERY CLOSE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE LINE POSITION. MUCAPE -- CURRENTLY ESTIMATED IN 400-800 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF REGION -- WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...THOUGH ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVER SRN AL...SRN MS AND PORTIONS GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 33558647 33808570 33738495 31868686 30789246 31049272 32139007 32458652 32218977 33008985 33259080 33588649 32458650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 15:41:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 10:41:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141541.j2EFfs6R011815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141541 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141541 FLZ000-141645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141541Z - 141645Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND BETWEEN PIE AND CTY AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA...SO WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA WILL BE MOVED SWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AREA ON THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. STORMS ARE MOVING EWD AT 35-40 MPH ONTO THE FL COAST WITH STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK ATTM. HOWEVER...THE SPEED OF STORMS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. ..IMY.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28888260 29058173 29108108 28238090 28098273 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 17:04:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 12:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141704.j2EH4Pq3013100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141703 COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AZ..NWRN AZ AND SWRN CO MOUNTAIN S CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 141703Z - 142100Z SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN AZ...NWRN NM AND THE SRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 1 FOOT OF SNOW. INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE... ABOUT 50 NE OF LAS...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD TO NEAR IGM BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESULTING IN STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FROM CENTRAL/NRN AZ NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SWD INTO NWRN AZ WILL PUSH THE FRONTOGENESIS SEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA BY THAT TIME. ..IMY.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 35271221 35971098 37230802 37570612 37400507 35870522 34470750 33410938 34581247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 18:05:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 13:05:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141805.j2EI5lpE030301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141805 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-142000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / FAR NRN FL / EXTREME SERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141805Z - 142000Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU INCREASING AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNCAPPED. 12Z TLH RAOB MODIFIED WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDS NO CAP WITH AND AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR. WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD OVER ERN GA...CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN MD AREA. INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL DUE TO LACK OF MID OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLS...SOME SPLITTING. RIGHT MOVERS MAY BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED AS THEY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF EAST...DUE TO RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ..JEWELL.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32098081 31468119 30748144 30298142 30268402 30598424 32008354 32588283 32708183 32668005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 19:54:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 14:54:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503141954.j2EJsXUQ028155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141953 TXZ000-NMZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 141953Z - 150000Z SNOWFALL RATE INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR TCS BY 00Z...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD THROUGH NWRN AZ. THE EWD MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT ACROSS ERN NM AND STRENGTHEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXITING JET MAX LOCATED IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN A 100 NM WIDE BAND THAT WOULD STRETCH E-W ALONG I-40. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA ALSO SHOW LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 TO 400 MB FROM 7-8C/KM... WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. ..IMY.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 36130622 36470422 36370094 35140146 34790323 34640462 34770598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 14 21:52:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 16:52:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503142152.j2ELqL4H024475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142151 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50... VALID 142151Z - 142345Z THREAT FOR SCATTERED HAIL / WIND REPORTS REMAINS OVER SERN HALF OF WW WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. ONGOING CONVECTION TO REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT WITH PROBABILITY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS SUN ANGLE LOWERS. VIGOROUS STORM ENTERING INTO CAMDEN COUNTY GA MAY HAVE SEVERE WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 03/14/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31108446 31468355 31918256 32378193 32298058 31818105 31098133 30578144 30688432 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 01:54:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2005 20:54:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503150154.j2F1sPV6004607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150153 TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-150700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 150153Z - 150700Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGLY CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW WITH AXIS FROM CVS WWD INTO CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE BACKING SURFACE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA...AND THIS IS OCCURRING OVER NERN NM / SERN CO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY E AND NE FACING SLOPES OF THE CO/NM SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. COMBINED WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW RATES TO EXCEED 2 IN/HR IN THE MTNS WITH AROUND 1 IN/HR POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND NWRN TX PANHANDLE. RAIN / SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE N WITH TRANSITION ZONE NEAR A ROW-SRR LINE BY MORNING. ..JEWELL.. 03/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35800561 36910536 37160444 36960381 36430314 36330183 35980159 35250320 34740371 34610399 34490478 34470567 34520643 34840641 35340644 35610573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 05:52:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 00:52:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503150552.j2F5qjTI030387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150552 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150551 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-151145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECENTRAL NM...THE TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 150551Z - 151145Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG 700 MB ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC LIFT IN THE 600-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS AZ/WRN NM. BANDED ECHO PATTERN EVIDENT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF ECENTRAL NM...SRN/ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED SATURATION GIVEN RECENT OBS OF CEILING HEIGHTS IN THE 4-8 KFT RANGE...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT RECENT EXPANSION OF ELEVATED ECHOES WILL LEAD TO THIS SATURATION OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. THUS THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS A ROSWELL NM TO CANADIAN TX LINE BY 12Z...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF CURRENT WET BULB FREEZING LINE AND ANTICIPATED SEWD MOVEMENT OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. FARTHER NORTH...HVY SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND NERN NM/FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 03/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33390440 33550558 34230602 35910616 36650442 36500307 36090050 35450038 34340091 33770262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 15 15:58:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 10:58:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503151558.j2FFwmBo032613@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151557 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-151700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF COAST CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 151557Z - 151700Z ...A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED AT 1630Z TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AT 1630Z. IT APPEARS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 03/15/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29799344 31119338 31879122 31728830 30328600 28698993 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 00:37:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:37:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503160037.j2G0bAbq011415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160036 TXZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160036Z - 160230Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS HIDALGO COUNTY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES OVER REMAINDER ERN HIDALGO/CAMERON/SRN KENEDY COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 0230Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TIME/SPACE COVERAGE OF THREAT. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK MESOLOW INVOF CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTY BORDER...LOCATED ON PRONOUNCED INFLECTION POINT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. FRONT IS ANALYZED SWD INTO NERN TAMAULIPAS AND EWD ACROSS PADRE ISLAND NEAR MANSFIELD CUT. THIS MESOLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD COAST...GIVEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG AREA THAT IS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN COAHUILA. MESOLOW AND NEARBY SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...AS WELL AS STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW THROUGH ISALLOBARIC FORCING. WARM SECTOR INFLOW IS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND WELL-SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO RAOB...WHICH INDICATED MLCAPE ROUGHLY 1300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SUPERCELLS...ROUGHLY 65 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 130 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOW ARE PRESENT AND WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORM SCALE PROCESSES MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATION AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26059770 26209795 26349806 26549790 26609760 26599737 26419721 26159715 25989724 26009754 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 00:40:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:40:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503160040.j2G0ec5l013004@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160039 COR TXZ000-160230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160039Z - 160230Z CORRECTED FOR COUNTY LIST CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS HIDALGO COUNTY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES TOWARD REMAINDER ERN HIDALGO/CAMERON/WILLACY/SRN KENEDY COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 0230Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TIME/SPACE COVERAGE OF THREAT. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK MESOLOW INVOF CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTY BORDER...LOCATED ON PRONOUNCED INFLECTION POINT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. FRONT IS ANALYZED SWD INTO NERN TAMAULIPAS AND EWD ACROSS PADRE ISLAND NEAR MANSFIELD CUT. THIS MESOLOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD TOWARD COAST...GIVEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG AREA THAT IS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN COAHUILA. MESOLOW AND NEARBY SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE/LIFT...AS WELL AS STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW THROUGH ISALLOBARIC FORCING. WARM SECTOR INFLOW IS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND WELL-SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO RAOB...WHICH INDICATED MLCAPE ROUGHLY 1300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SUPERCELLS...ROUGHLY 65 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 130 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOW ARE PRESENT AND WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORM SCALE PROCESSES MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATION AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BRO... 26059770 26209795 26349806 26549790 26609760 26599737 26419721 26159715 25989724 26009754 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 06:49:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 01:49:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503160649.j2G6n7sa021070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160648 FLZ000-160915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160648Z - 160915Z A LOCALIZED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST OVER THE S CNTRL FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE APALACHICOLA AREA AFTER 08Z. EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY NWD AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WITHIN THE ZONE OF LIFT N OF THIS BOUNDARY...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW A LINE OF STORMS WITH A NRN END COMMA HEAD AND REAR INFLOW NOTCH ABOUT 60 SM W OF THE APALACHICOLA AREA. THE LINE IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25-30 KT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE BY 08Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH THE LINE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...IT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO EXIST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MOISTENS IN VICINITY OF THE NWD MOVING FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE LARGE. ..DIAL.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 30338597 30518517 30378438 29978446 29668506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 10:23:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 05:23:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503161023.j2GANAI1003459@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161022 FLZ000-GAZ000-161215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161022Z - 161215Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF NRN FL INTO EXTREME SRN GA. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL FL WWD INTO THE NRN GULF. SQUALL LINE WITH LEWP STRUCTURES PERSISTS WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT N OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM S OF TALLAHASSEE TO E OF APALACHICOLA...MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. THE LINE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS MORNING AND CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. RECENT VWP AND RUC SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH TIME GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE...INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28908261 29338294 30108369 30678318 30838158 29538150 28878208 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 17:20:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 12:20:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503161720.j2GHK4Cb010223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161719 FLZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN / CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161719Z - 161915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN FL...WHILE OTHER / ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN / CENTRAL FL. THOUGH WW NOT IMMINENT ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF. THOUGH LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE NWRN FL COAST ATTM -- BETWEEN TLH AND CTY...LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT ANY WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. FROM ROUGHLY CTY TO GNV SWD...THINNER HIGH OVERCAST IS ALLOWING SOME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPPING INDICATED BY MORNING TBW RAOB CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO A DIRECTION W OF S OVER MUCH OF THE PENINSULA...STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /60 TO 70 KT/ SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. GREATEST THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ANY SMALL-SCALE LINES / LINE SEGMENTS COULD FORM. ATTM...QUESTIONS REGARDING EVENTUAL STORM COVERAGE MAKE WW ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN. SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE THAT ORGANIZED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WW COULD BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29708342 29818323 29978231 30018133 29098085 28378110 27908236 27808282 28558265 28948266 29158277 29188305 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 16 21:24:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 16:24:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503162124.j2GLONP9013046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162122 FLZ000-162245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 51... VALID 162122Z - 162245Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA -- WITH GREATEST ONGOING THREAT INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST ATTM. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SEVERAL COMPACT / LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN FL AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS ATTM...FROM ROUGHLY ST. JOHNS COUNTY SWD TO ORANGE / BREVARD COUNTIES. STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS EXIST ATTM FROM 10 WNW ORL TO 20 SE DAB...WITH A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS REVEALING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THOUGH ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ERN GULF...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS ERN FL. IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UP TO 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...VEERED / SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER LAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST...THUS FAVORING STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW. ..GOSS.. 03/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29818197 30138141 28578057 28258062 27288022 27598246 28488255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 00:05:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 19:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503170005.j2H05jPX013490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170004 FLZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 51... VALID 170004Z - 170030Z TORNADO WATCH 51 EXPIRES AT 01Z AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REISSUED. A MESOLOW HAS MOVED ASHORE VCNTY KTPA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS POLK... OSCEOLA...ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES ALONG A BOUNDARY THROUGH 02Z AT 35 KTS. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS UNSTABLE. THOUGH THE FLOW HAS BECOME WLY THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THOUGH THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 01Z...A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF ECNTRL FL THROUGH 02Z. AFTERWARDS...THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER UVV WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NEWD OFF THE FL COAST. ..RACY.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29818197 30138141 28578057 28258062 27288022 27598246 28488255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 13:39:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 08:39:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503171339.j2HDdVLE006238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171337 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171337Z - 171530Z MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S FL FROM NEAR BOCA RATON WWD TO NEAR NAPLES. A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION N OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY JUST E OF FORT MEYERS WHERE A BOW-ECHO/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT AND MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SHORT TERM THREAT. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 41717080 41457278 43467308 44897176 45447014 45466850 44746817 43307076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 13:51:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 08:51:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503171351.j2HDpCH0013467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171343 COR FLZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171343Z - 171530Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC PLACEMENT MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S FL FROM NEAR BOCA RATON WWD TO NEAR NAPLES. A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION N OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY JUST E OF FORT MEYERS WHERE A BOW-ECHO/COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT AND MAY POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SHORT TERM THREAT. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26837921 26338096 26438221 27208169 27587994  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 17:10:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 12:10:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503171710.j2HHAGSo000402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171709 FLZ000-171815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 52... VALID 171709Z - 171815Z ...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. QUALITY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE SOUTH OF LEADING OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTH OF BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 24558204 27358198 27347968 24527979 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 17 20:25:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 15:25:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503172024.j2HKOtU6018695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172024 FLZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 52... VALID 172024Z - 172130Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS... EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SAGGING SWD AT ROUGHLY 5 KT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MULTIPLE ARC-SHAPED LINE SEGMENTS ARE RACING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRAVERSE E-W BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES THE SERN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS. ..DARROW.. 03/17/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW... 25128220 27068019 26017944 24188133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 01:58:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 20:58:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503180158.j2I1wKWb026869@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180157 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-180700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SRN MN/WRN WI/NRN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 180157Z - 180700Z HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FROM ERN SD TO SWRN WI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY EVENING RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ERN NE TO NRN IL AT 01 UTC. LATEST 21 UTC NAMKF AND NCEP SREF PREDICT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TO SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH 09 UTC...WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE BECOMING ENHANCED AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NWRN KS TO ERN NE TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOWARD CNTRL SD BY 09 UTC WILL FURTHER AID PRECIPITATION RATES IN WRN SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 06 UTC AND 09 UTC. LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINICITY/FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION THROUGH SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC LAYER AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN MN. MESOSCALE REGIONS OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HOUR IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS. ELY/NELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ENSURE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN IA. ..BRIGHT.. 03/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44569782 44889682 44879581 44599280 44179047 42898800 42478863 42598975 42729082 42939182 43199330 43279409 43459585 43639688 44079787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 12:19:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 07:19:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503181219.j2ICJJfE024907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181218 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-181615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IA/SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181218Z - 181615Z BAND OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NRN IA/SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED 1.0-2.0 IN/HR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER SD/NEB. IR SATELLITE TRENDS OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS FEATURES BLOSSOMING/VERY COLD -60C CLOUD TOPS ACROSS FAR NRN IA/SRN MN INTO WRN WI...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO DPVA WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME /REF SLATER IA AND LATHROP MO PROFILERS/. GIVEN RELATIVELY SLOW EWD MOVING NATURE OF CYCLONE/DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND...PROLONGED/CONFINED CORRIDOR OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF STRONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SRN MN/FAR NRN IA INTO WCNTRL WI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PER 12Z OAX/DVN RAOBS...PROXIMITY OF 7.0-8.0 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSNOW/SNOW RATE ENHANCEMENT. ..GUYER.. 03/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44398986 44038959 43658952 43319008 43269282 43029509 43099602 43239662 43619683 44389661 44729496 44929233 44639059 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 18 17:34:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 12:34:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503181734.j2IHY90A008388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181733 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181733 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-182130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN SD...SRN MN...AND WRN/CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181733Z - 182130Z HEAVY SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN SD TO WRN WI WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR EXPECTED. BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NWD/NEWD DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. CLOSED 700MB LOW CENTER OVER SERN SD WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOW EWD ACROSS NWRN IA THROUGH 00Z...A PARTIAL RESULT OF THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK ACROSS ERN CANADA. LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG...WITH MARKED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR SUX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO N-CENTRAL IL. ON THE MESOSCALE...INTENSE PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES ON NRN EDGE OF STRONG 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION ZONE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING AT A NUMBER OF ASOS STATIONS ACROSS SRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND. WITH BAND WELL-ALIGNED WITH RUC 750MB FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM...TREND SHOULD BE FOR BAND TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH 00Z...BRINGING SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR CLOSER TO THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF MSP METRO AREA. TRENDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ALONG I-94 CORRIDOR IN WRN WI. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES WELL-DEFINED TROWAL/THETA-E RIDGE WRAPPING WWD JUST NORTH OF 700MB LOW CENTER THROUGH 00Z AS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN IA. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT SHOULD MAINTAIN AXIS OF OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACROSS FAR SRN/SWRN MN TO THE SD/MN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 03/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD... 44999311 44939158 44749031 44438956 43848969 43639032 43729289 43609449 43469555 43349639 43569708 44159725 44379650 44919458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 18:47:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 13:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503191847.j2JIl62c011330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191846 TXZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191846Z - 192045Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER.. RECENT LIGHTNING/RADAR DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY SOUTH OF JCT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/STEEP LAPSE RATES...JUST WEST OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MATURES...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE WILL OCCUR AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ALONG PREEXISTING BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS AIRMASS HEATS/MOISTENS. HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER CELLS AS THEY INGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30170017 31029864 30979657 29799617 29499816 29409999 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 21:29:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 16:29:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503192128.j2JLSiQr027310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192127 TXZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53... VALID 192127Z - 192300Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS HAMPERED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR/FORCING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LIMITED INFLOW INTO UPDRAFT REGION...THUS LIFETIME CYCLE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. NWD-DRIFTING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON SPREAD INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW AS REMNANTS OF EARLY AFTERNOON CLUSTER PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS BURNET/BLANCO COUNTIES. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL BE THOSE THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOST BUOYANT. WILL MONITOR COASTAL PLAINS OF TX FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..DARROW.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 28149885 30389850 31019667 29389625 28659752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 22:39:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 17:39:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503192239.j2JMd4Uf025036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192238 TXZ000-192345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192238Z - 192345Z STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH COVERING PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX GULF COAST WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY. STORM ARE INCREASING IN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM WEST TX. ACTIVITY IS MOST ORGANIZED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW OVER WILLIAMSON COUNTY ATTM WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MILAM...ROBERTSON...AND LEON COUNTIES. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER GONZALES COUNTY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE TROUGH. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...35-40KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND SPREADS EAST TO THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29709433 28949642 28429760 28029875 28359876 29089864 29769743 29929694 30979674 31719413 30879372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 19 23:34:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 18:34:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503192333.j2JNXgNt012243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192332 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-200130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0532 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192332Z - 200130Z PORTIONS OF ERN TX AROUND THE SABINE RIVER...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WRN AND SRN LA...MAY NEED A SEVERE TSTM WATCH DURING THE EVENING. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS SWRN LA EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONG AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE UPPER TX GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER REGION WAS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER ORGANIZING MCS OVER TX MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...OR WHETHER A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS DEVELOPS FROM ACTIVITY NOW OVER BEAUREGARD PARISH. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA WOULD APPEAR TO SUGGEST THE LATTER SCENARIO AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29739369 29539451 31029452 31259280 31509151 30379157 30009157 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 01:05:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 20:05:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200104.j2K14g22014190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200103 TXZ000-200230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... VALID 200103Z - 200230Z LARGE CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 54. A COUPLE OF POTENT SUPERCELLS WERE ALSO WITHIN SRN PARTS OF THE WATCH AND MOVING ACROSS SAN PATRICIO AND NUECES COUNTIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE NRN PART OF THE WATCH APPEARS TO BE A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER AND INTO WRN/SRN LA. DESPITE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...THIS COMPLEX MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SEVERE WEATHER INTO LATE EVENING AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH TO THE EAST IS BEING CONSIDERED. ..CARBIN.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27389620 27419868 31329679 31329418 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 03:39:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2005 22:39:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200339.j2K3d3It009150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200336 TXZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... VALID 200336Z - 200500Z ...SEVERE STORM HAZARD CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATCH 54... GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION WHERE A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS JACKSON...WHARTON...FORT BEND...BRAZORIA...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOIST AIRMASS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SR INFLOW TO LINEAR MCS COULD PROMOTE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...WEAKLY ORGANIZED MASS OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING GRADUALLY EAST ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR LFK TO ESF. CELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG W-E FRONT AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOL...WITH FRONTAL ZONE APPEARING TO LIFT NWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SHEAR IS FCST OVER THESE AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER... GIVEN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ATOP THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WATCH...EAST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 27389620 27469868 29289788 30509534 31329418  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 08:01:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 03:01:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200801.j2K81VLA031598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200800 TXZ000-201000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL BEND REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200800Z - 201000Z ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS JIM WELLS/LIVE OAK COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE ESEWD -- ESSENTIALLY DOWN LOWER NUECES RIVER REGION TOWARD CRP BAY -- THROUGH 10Z. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW BETWEEN ALI-LRD AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD AS WELL. MAIN CONCERN IS LARGE HAIL. BECAUSE OF LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THREAT...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN GULF BOW ECHO...FROM 75 SSE PSX WNWWD ACROSS PORT ARANSAS AND MUSTANG ISLAND...JUST N CRP...TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN JIM WELLS COUNTY. FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWWD TOWARD LRD. BOUNDARIES ARE QUASISTATIONARY NW OF CRP AND MOVING SWD 10-15 KT OVER COASTAL BARRIER ISLANDS...AND SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER LATTER AREAS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS FORMED AT OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NRN JIM WELLS COUNTY..AND SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODIFIED CRP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AIDED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH VWP/RUC WIND PROFILES SHOW PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM AGL HODOGRAPH LAYER...INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND ENHANCED HAIL POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS CLUSTER BECAUSE OF BOTH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE VORTICITY/LIFT. LEFT SPLITS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MOVING ENEWD TOWARD REFUGIO COUNTY. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP... 27809875 28269783 28439747 28349710 28019683 27709696 27639733 27619886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 20 08:43:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2005 03:43:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503200843.j2K8hAJv015095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200842 LAZ000-201115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL LA AND ADJACENT WATERS -- FROM SERN CAMERON TO TERREBONNE PARISHES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200842Z - 201115Z NRN PORTION OF PERSISTENT/WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO IS MOVING ENEWD 40-50 KT ACROSS GULF WATERS SE OF SABINE PASS...AND MAY AFFECT DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 930-12Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT OVER COASTAL AREAS AND INTO GULF...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE OF THREAT OVER LAND. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES MARINE FRONT -- DENOTING NRN EDGE OF MOST HIGHLY MODIFIED GULF AIR -- FROM ABOUT 75 S MSY WNWWD TO ABOUT 60 SSE LCH...DRIFTING N. THIS FRONT MAY BARELY MOVE INLAND OVER PORTIONS VERMILION/IBERIA/ST MARY/TERREBONNE PARISHES BEFORE PASSAGE OF MCS...ALLOWING NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THEREFORE IS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND SWD OVER GULF WATERS. RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC DECREASES NWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INFLOW-LAYER THERMODYNAMICS...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY MCV EVIDENT AT 830Z ABOUT 35 S BPT...AND BY EXTENSIVE LOW-MIDLEVEL REAR-INFLOW JET OF 35-50 KT EVIDENT IN LCH VELOCITY DATA. ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29619335 29809301 29949234 29949172 29789125 29609089 29469063 29299044 28929045 28709082 28529116 28419159 28419191 28439244 28379282 28359319 28759298 29159302 29459324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 09:40:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 04:40:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503210939.j2L9dwhL003078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210939 OKZ000-TXZ000-211215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...CENTRAL/SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210939Z - 211215Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...WITHIN BROAD SWATH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY A SEP... ACT...TYR LINE NWD TO VICINITY I-40 IN OK. MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL...THOUGH OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR AS WELL. SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE WW IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AIR MASS ACROSS ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. RAPIDLY SHARPENING MOIST/DRY SIGNATURE IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES STRENGTHENING VERTICAL CIRCULATION AND ASCENT/DESCENT COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PLUME OF ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND WAA INVOF 35-45 KT LLJ. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG FROM CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX...BASED ON RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. REMOVING SHEAR FROM NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH STILL MAY REACH 300-400 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTING ROTATION IN CELLS AND ENHANCED HAIL PRODUCTION. WRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MARKED BY DRYLINE...ANALYZED ATTM FROM NEAR CSM SWD TO CONCHO COUNTY TX. CURRENTLY QUASISTATIONARY...DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING EWD AFTER SUNRISE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31439905 33559861 35259856 35999821 35969661 35619576 34919564 33549561 31869606 31459744 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 11:25:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 06:25:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211125.j2LBPT1n012052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211124 NEZ000-SDZ000-211630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NCENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 211124Z - 211630Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION BEGINNING BY 12Z AND LASTING THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CENTRAL/WRN NEB IN AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A VORT MAX ROTATING SLOWLY NWD THROUGH SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A FOCUS OF MID LEVEL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT ABOVE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER NOTED ON REGIONAL PROFILERS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP COLUMN OF VERTICAL MOTION OVER WRN/NCENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCLUSION OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER KS SHOULD AID IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MORNING HOURS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF EXPECTED HVY SNOW AREA. TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT LOW LEVEL CAA/WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE INTO NCENTRAL NEB THROUGH 12Z. BY 15Z...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KEITH COUNTY TO WHEELER COUNTY. ..CROSBIE.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41909810 42819820 43469916 43679995 43570122 42470221 41530204 40890143 41349854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 13:44:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 08:44:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211344.j2LDiXUK017391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211343 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-211515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 211343Z - 211515Z INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EWD INTO ERN/SRN PORTION WW AND GENERALLY WEAKENED...THOUGH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SRN AREA W AUS AND NW SAT...AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH AREA OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE BASED JUST ABOVE SFC IN SAT-JCT-AUS AREA...WITH LESS OF A MIDLEVEL/CAPE-ROBBING WARM LAYER THAN FARTHER N. SECONDARY LINE OF TSTMS FROM NEAR DUA SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30 NNE JCT MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PORTION IN TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE GREATEST. SFC DRYLINE IS ACCELERATING EWD ACROSS NW TX...ANALYZED FROM NEAR GAG-FSI TO CLAY COUNTY TX...THEN SWWD TO ABOUT 20 E JCT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING BEHIND WESTERN CONVECTIVE LINE...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER DRYING AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED EWD SHIFT OF SFC DRYLINE...MITIGATING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR REMAINDER WW TIME FRAME. ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 33849793 33839431 29909701 29930053 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 15:27:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 10:27:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211527.j2LFRNp2000984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211526 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 211526Z - 211600Z SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITHIN WW 55 GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW JCT TO 15 NNW CLL. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/S OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY THIS MORNING TO INGEST HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FARTHER N...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND AS INDICATED IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 31089977 31489903 33229751 33889720 33839426 31389597 29849703 29819925 29860066 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 16:59:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 11:59:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211658.j2LGwq03013164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211657 TXZ000-211730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX TO THE UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... VALID 211657Z - 211730Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX EWD INTO SE TX. VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS INDICATED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN VCT AND THE HOU AREA...ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING WITHIN AN AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN PORTION OF WW 055 /IN HAYS COUNTY/ HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY PER LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTING THEY HAVE BECOME MORE ROOTED TOWARD THE SURFACE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND SAT EWD INTO SE TX...WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28639883 30149888 30329795 30519610 30779474 30629451 29599434 28829533 28509617 28669722 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 18:15:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 13:15:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503211815.j2LIFDjP006530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211814 OKZ000-TXZ000-211845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211814Z - 211845Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM NWRN OK SEWD TO JUST WEST OF OKC AND THEN SWD TO JUST EAST OF FTW. TCU IS TRYING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE PER VISUAL OBSERVATION AT SPC. SURFACE BASED CIN HAS DECREASED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITHIN NARROW MOIST AXIS LOCATED ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG/E OF DRY LINE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33849698 34689734 35709795 36959893 36979662 34629525 33919508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 21:05:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 16:05:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212104.j2LL4bgs014957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212059 TXZ000-OKZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212059Z - 212330Z THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2030Z CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER 15S DUA SWD TO NEAR ACT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. JTN PROFILER SHOWS STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX ATTM. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND REMNANT DOWNSTREAM BAND OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NERN TX. ADDITIONALLY... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS STRONG IN THIS AREA WHICH IS WELL REMOVED FROM SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NWRN OK. ISOLATED WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST IN ADVANCE OF CONVERGENT AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF STORMS ARE SUSTAINABLE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. AREAS OF N-CENTRAL TX FROM JUST EAST OF DAL TO ACT EWD INTO NERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..BANACOS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 32669668 33539650 33719638 33809570 33689524 33069490 31589510 31159561 30939612 30759669 30769696 31089745 31549708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 21:16:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 16:16:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212116.j2LLGBp5024540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212114 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO SRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 56... VALID 212114Z - 212245Z TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 56 AND SEWD ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS NWRN OK...ALONG/JUST EAST OF A COLD FRONT SINCE 1930Z. SURFACE ANALYSES/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A TRIPLE POINT IN ERN KINGFISHER COUNTY OK...WITH THE DRY LINE EXTENDING SEWD TOWARD TIK AND THEN SWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER IN GRAYSON COUNTY TX. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS HAD BEEN LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF WW 56 IN SRN KS...SIMILAR STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD ALONG/E OF THE DRY LINE AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC... 37309992 36849962 36419914 36319850 35689837 35249776 33839688 33839510 36969680 37409862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 22:46:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 17:46:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212246.j2LMkDqr026200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212245 FLZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212245Z - 220045Z TSTMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN FL EARLY THIS EVENING. TIME OF DAY AND ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BY FL STANDARDS WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...MESOSCALE FOCUSING IN THE FORM OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER THE SCNTRL PART OF THE PENINSULA...COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 30KT...WAS RESULTING IN A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. WHILE A DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT OR BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THESE CELLS...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPDRAFTS CROSS THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH OF TPA TO BOW TO VRB...TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26278004 26428133 27658249 28048279 28878261 28608083 27888050 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 21 23:11:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 18:11:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503212311.j2LNB7bE007831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212310 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN TX...SWRN AR...WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212310Z - 220045Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AND ERN TX...SWRN AR...AND WRN LA. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 70-80KT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER NWRN OK WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MESOSCALE MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE LATE EVENING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 03/21/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29169519 28829774 32759602 33869556 33789287 31709286 29939394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 01:01:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 20:01:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220100.j2M10iKJ009211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220059 OKZ000-220300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220059Z - 220300Z ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF OK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE STORMS TONIGHT MAY NECESSITATE NEW WW ISSUANCE. AT 0030Z...VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF AVK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH 06Z. SURFACE DRYLINE HAS RECENTLY STALLED IN AN ARC SHAPE FROM 40N OKC TO 45 E OKC TO NEAR DUA. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF OKC IN THE DRIER AIR...SUGGESTIVE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW EAST OF DRYLINE WITH MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG...ADDITIONAL FORCING MAY RESULT IN GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SEVERE THREAT IS CONFINED TO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS ERN/NRN OK. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW LATER TONIGHT IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES EAST OF DRYLINE. ..BANACOS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34899673 35779695 36669715 36839671 36889571 36689496 36249473 35239460 34629457 34239462 34059504 34049554 34079616 34119640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 02:31:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 21:31:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220231.j2M2VVXQ029029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220229 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK....ERN TX...SWRN AR...NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 57... VALID 220229Z - 220400Z SEVERE TSTMS...SOME PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 57 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR...AND NWRN LA. A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED EAST OF WATCH 57 WITHIN THE HOUR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS ERN TX LATE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVE EAST FROM NWRN TX AND SRN OK. AIRMASS ACROSS ERN TX AND INTO PARTS OF SERN OK AND WRN LA REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST NAM FCSTS INDICATE INTENSE UPWARD MOTION AND HIGH CONVECTIVE QPF WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA OVERNIGHT. COINCIDENT WITH THIS STRONG FORCING WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING UPDRAFT LONGEVITY AND ROTATION. AT PRESENT...GREATEST EFFECTIVE SRH FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EXISTS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH... INDICATED BY HATCHED AREA ON MCD GRAPHIC...CELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY PRODUCE TORNADOES...HAIL...AND HIGH WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX... 29539503 29679672 32759602 34369569 34329315 34299222 33659173 33009192 32659217 32339272 31499347 29889401 29759407  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 04:13:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 23:13:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220413.j2M4D1xu014637@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220412 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220412Z - 220515Z A NEW TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO COVER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER NWRN OK. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE RED RIVER NWD ACROSS THE OZARKS. STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRIMARILY HAIL AND A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN... 35539303 34489317 34549579 36969592 36999469 36469450 36419280 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 08:21:41 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 03:21:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220821.j2M8LE8r017441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220820 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN OK AND WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... VALID 220820Z - 220945Z STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING APPEARS TO HAVE BIFURCATED INTO TWO MAIN LOBES -- WAA REGIME ACROSS AR/LA/SE TX AND SMALL AREA OF DEEP-LAYER LIFT JUST AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATTER REGIME STILL MAY AFFECT WW...ESPECIALLY NRN PORTIONS...ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC OCCLUDED FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM NEAR TUL SSEWD ACROSS PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. AIRMASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES DEVELOP BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY THAT HAS NOW MOVED E OF WW. ROUGHLY 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE ACROSS E-CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME WRN AR...DECREASING TO 800-1200 J/KG OVER NERN OK. THEREFORE... ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS RATHER SCANT OVER WW AREA ATTM...MOST OF WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SCHEDULED EXPIRATION...FOR POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS BEHIND FRONT. IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BY ABOUT 930-10Z...ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 36729561 36719348 34259357 34249566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 09:44:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 04:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220944.j2M9iIIK018105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220943 LAZ000-TXZ000-221145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SE TX...SMALL PART OF NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60... VALID 220943Z - 221145Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL -- EVIDENT AT 930Z FROM HOU METRO AREA NEWD PAST JASPER INTO N-CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SERN PORTION WW WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF CLL. NWRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED AS SFC DRYLINE/FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH...STABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIR MASS THROUGH CAA AND DRY ADVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES ACROSS WW BASED ON VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 70-80 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS ARE EVIDENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER AREA...THOUGH SOME WEAKNESS IN ABSOLUTE SPEEDS AROUND 2 KM REDUCES LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE. THERMODYNAMICALLY...AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF WW IS CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE -- SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE SFC. ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ROOTED AT SFC ALSO EVIDENT OVER AND JUST WW HOU AREA WITH LESS THAN 50 J/KG SBCIN FROM THERE EWD TOWARD BPT AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29499650 30949630 31069580 31619575 32329487 32299340 29539387 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 09:58:36 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 04:58:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503220958.j2M9w9qr022953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220957 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-221200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN LA...SERN AR...WRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61... VALID 220957Z - 221200Z PRIMARY LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 945Z FROM NATCHITOCHES PARISH NEWD TOWARD GWO -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER WW AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. BRIEF TORNADO FROM BOW ECHO OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED OVER NWRN PART OF WW BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EVIDENT FROM ELD AREA SWD...AND MOVING EWD ACROSS LA/AR BORDER REGION. ELEVATED MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG EVIDENT NEAR AR/LA BORDER BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS....SUPPORTED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUOYANCY IS ROOTED NEARER TO SFC WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT PRECIP-RELATED COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BY ONGOING CONVECTION MAY PRECLUDE SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS FROM REACHING WW AREA LATER. 55-65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF AREA...SUPPORTING BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW MORPHOLOGIES WITH CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 33509280 33508930 31239012 31239353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 12:01:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 07:01:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221200.j2MC0pvK004903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221159 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-221400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN MS...S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 61...62... VALID 221159Z - 221400Z LINE OF TSTMS -- BROKEN AND RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER SWRN LA BUT SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED IN NARROW ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN MS -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER REMAINDER OF BOTH WWS. NRN PORTION OF LINE MAY MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 61 -- OVER E-CENTRAL MS -- WHILE MIDDLE SEGMENT AFFECTS AREAS INVOF MCB CURRENTLY NOT IN WW. AS THIS OCCURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL OR MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN 1. PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THETAE AND HIGHER STATIC STABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EWD EXTENT...AND 2. LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INSTEAD OF DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR MODE... POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE APPEARS TOO SMALL ATTM TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW FARTHER E IN MS. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUOYANCY OF NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER SRN LA INDICATES SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THERE...HOWEVER OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. BOTH WWS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FROM W-E BEHIND CONVECTIVE BAND. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31219015 31299174 32629087 32739027 33209004 33538988 33508934 29599131 29589377 30199374 30929308 31289175 31229108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 13:40:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 08:40:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221339.j2MDduL8024136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221338 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-221445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...S-CENTRAL-SERN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 221338Z - 221445Z WW 64 IS BEING ISSUED E OF WW 63 FOR INCREASING TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL FRONT NOW ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE AL AND WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. STRENGTHENING CONVECTION N OF COASTAL FRONT ACROSS FL PANHANDLE...SE AL AND SW GA STILL APPEARS ELEVATED...BASED ON MODIFIED TLH RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WAA...INLAND FRONTAL PENETRATION...AND A FEW DEG F OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. MEANWHILE...200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN AIR MASS E OF MAJOR CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER SRN MS. SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND BOW ECHO TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LATTER ACTIVITY ALSO AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN MS/AL. ..EDWARDS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32308637 31648317 29378335 30228663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 14:51:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 09:51:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221451.j2MEpEFA011708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221450 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221449 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO PARTS OF WRN/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221449Z - 221515Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO WRN GA. STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TO SRN MS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THIS MORNING INTO AL AS WARM SECTOR MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE MS LINE OF STORMS AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AL ATTM. STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AL ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE NNE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AL SEWD INTO SRN GA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AL INTO WRN GA MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS NOSE OF 80 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ELEVATED ACTIVITY THROUGH MID DAY. CENTRAL AL INTO PORTIONS OF GA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32468846 33668825 34128821 34578807 34318529 33648486 32168471 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 15:40:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 10:40:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221539.j2MFdnuQ016946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221539 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221538 FLZ000-GAZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0938 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221538Z - 221745Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM FRONT OVER NRN FL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER FAR NRN FL / SRN GA. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MODIFIED 12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED CAP IS ESSENTIALLY GONE...THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION BEING POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ONCE STORMS REACH PEAK INTENSITY / ORGANIZATION. AREA WIND PROFILES INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 100-200 J/KG 0-1KM SRH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SURFACE BASED UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID / UPPER 70S. THEREFORE...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28968087 29138169 29408262 31558293 31258126 30798143 29908126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 15:45:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 10:45:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221544.j2MFilU0020744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221544 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-221645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0944 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/COASTAL SERN LA INTO SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63... VALID 221544Z - 221645Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z ACROSS FAR SERN MS TO COASTAL SERN LA AND EWD ACROSS SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FAST MOVING BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY EXTENDING N-S ALONG CENTRAL TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE MS/AL BORDER...WITH THE BOW THEN TRAILING SWWD ACROSS SERN MS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE VALUES OVER SRN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WHERE THE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED INLAND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S. WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW ECHO AND MODERATE INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE AT 35-40 KT. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW ECHO AS WELL AS WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SR HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 250-350 M2/S2. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30229027 30748905 31848855 32418860 32418637 31018644 30148654 30068777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 16:55:24 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 11:55:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221654.j2MGsumv013582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221654 SCZ000-GAZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221654Z - 221730Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO SRN SC. THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN GA INTO SRN SC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND SRN GA...WITH A SECOND WARM FRONT LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL JET. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY INDICATED OVER MUCH OF ERN GA AND SRN SC SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED ORGANIZED STORMS...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31958361 33708359 32738008 31328126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 17:57:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 12:57:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221756.j2MHujA1031221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221755 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN AR / NWRN MS / EXTREME SWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221755Z - 221930Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ALONG WARM FRONT NEAR SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL AR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SERN AR. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AIR MASS OVER FAR NRN MS AND SWRN TN IS STABLE AS OF 18Z BUT WILL DESTABILIZE GIVEN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT...AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE ABOUT 20 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR N OF WARM FRONT. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA... 33249131 33339162 34139186 34689283 34839325 36029360 35689142 34988914 34158924 33468969 33329004 33279054 33239091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 18:52:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 13:52:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221852.j2MIqTul009018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221851 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-221945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...64... VALID 221851Z - 221945Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO REPLACE PORTIONS OF WW 64 ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL TO SRN GA...GIVEN THAT PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN AL EWD ACROSS FAR SRN GA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN THE SWRN GA COUNTIES OF EARLY/MILLER/SEMINOLE AND A SECOND TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN TIFT COUNTY GA. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN WW 64 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30088682 31508653 31978700 32418737 32228555 31838305 29478310 30038652 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 19:39:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 14:39:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503221938.j2MJcd54010506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221937 FLZ000-GAZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66... VALID 221937Z - 222100Z THREAT EXISTS FOR STRONG TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SRN GA AND EXTREME NRN FL. THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AS WELL. 18Z TLH RAOB IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS SOMEWHAT COOL...STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER E WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. HODOGRAPH IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 200-300 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS WELL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE / NRN FL AND SRN GA. WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AND SHIFTING EWD...ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 28828082 29108276 30108391 31908300 31888195 31548118 30898144 29968123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 20:06:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 15:06:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222006.j2MK6Nuk031052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222005 GAZ000-ALZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 65... VALID 222005Z - 222030Z WW 65 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 21Z. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN GA...BUT AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 65. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY ACROSS WRN GA IN WW 65...WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY LOCATED FARTHER SWD ACROSS SRN GA WITHIN TORNADO WATCHES 66 AND 69. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE AIR MASS OVER WRN INTO CENTRAL GA HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 33918541 33758358 31888355 32028510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 20:41:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 15:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222040.j2MKeWqF028088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222039 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR / NWRN MS / SWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68... VALID 222039Z - 222215Z STORMS ARE FINALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES UP TO GOLF BALL SIZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36329297 35219264 34619137 33759085 34408917 36479104 36499282 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 21:42:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 16:42:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222142.j2MLg5uB025945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222141 FLZ000-GAZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66... VALID 222141Z - 222215Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 66. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN FL... WHERE AREA VAD WINDS SHOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31758311 31858232 31688187 31278125 28968119 29448316 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 21:44:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 16:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222144.j2MLiDGZ028533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222143 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS INTO SERN LA / WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222143Z - 222345Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW IS NOT EXPECTED. 18Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO EARLIER MCS PASSAGE...BUT STILL MODERATE INSTABILITY WHEN MODIFIED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH WILL TEND TO OVERLY SHEAR THE UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ISOLATED DUE TO HIGH SHEAR / LOW CAPE AND A FEW MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33258953 33258855 33248767 30898819 30908892 30889119 31099118 31809041 32419023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:02:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222202.j2MM23SM014960@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222141 FLZ000-GAZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66... VALID 222141Z - 222215Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO REPLACE WW 66. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN FL... WHERE AREA VAD WINDS SHOW LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31758311 31858232 31688187 31278125 28968119 29448316  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:07:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:07:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222207.j2MM7HKT020173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222143 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-222345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS INTO SERN LA / WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222143Z - 222345Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW IS NOT EXPECTED. 18Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO EARLIER MCS PASSAGE...BUT STILL MODERATE INSTABILITY WHEN MODIFIED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH WILL TEND TO OVERLY SHEAR THE UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL TEND TO BE ISOLATED DUE TO HIGH SHEAR / LOW CAPE AND A FEW MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33258953 33258855 33248767 30898819 30908892 30889119 31099118 31809041 32419023  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:12:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:12:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222212.j2MMCRaL025484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 CAZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222211Z - 230015Z COLD FRONT FROM NRN SIERRAS SSWWD ACROSS NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE S OF MRY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. VAD WINDS AT HNX INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HELICITIES UP TO 300 J/KG AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SBCAPES FROM 300-500 J/KG AT MOST...WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADOES COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES E/SE ACROSS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WITH SUCH LIMITED INSTABILITY...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..HALES.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 37982082 37792006 36811935 36121920 35581949 35462004 35832082 36232113 36872124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:29:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:29:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222228.j2MMScbg008012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222227 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / WRN KY / SERN MO / NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222227Z - 222300Z SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD ACROSS NERN AR / NRN MS AND WILL EXIT WW 68 SOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME SWRN KY TO MAINTAIN STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. THERFORE...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 34308932 36529051 37118964 37098847 36188782 35398763 35008822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:36:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:36:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222236.j2MMaLML014240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222211 CAZ000-230015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0411 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222211Z - 230015Z COLD FRONT FROM NRN SIERRAS SSWWD ACROSS NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE S OF MRY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. VAD WINDS AT HNX INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HELICITIES UP TO 300 J/KG AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SBCAPES FROM 300-500 J/KG AT MOST...WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADOES COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS IT MOVES E/SE ACROSS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WITH SUCH LIMITED INSTABILITY...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..HALES.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR... 37982082 37792006 36811935 36121920 35581949 35462004 35832082 36232113 36872124  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 22:56:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:56:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222256.j2MMuP8o031539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222227 TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / WRN KY / SERN MO / NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222227Z - 222300Z SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD ACROSS NERN AR / NRN MS AND WILL EXIT WW 68 SOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME SWRN KY TO MAINTAIN STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. THERFORE...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 34308932 36529051 37118964 37098847 36188782 35398763 35008822  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Mar 22 23:12:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 18:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503222312.j2MNC71h012647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222310 GAZ000-FLZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 70... VALID 222310Z - 230045Z STRONGLY ORGANIZED MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 35-40KT ACROSS WARE...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...CAMDEN... AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SERN GA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT FROM PUTNAM COUNTY NWD TO DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NERN FL. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERSISTENT AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE MAXIMIZED FOR CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR...OR CROSSING... THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER NERN FL INTO SERN GA...AND WHERE BOWING LINE SEGMENT INTERSECTS THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 03/22/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29678133 29368316 30728316 31078241 31678238 32148132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 00:10:44 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 19:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230010.j2N0ADkF030358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230009 ALZ000-MSZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS WRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230009Z - 230215Z PORTIONS OF ERN MS...WRN AND CNTRL AL MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH THIS EVENING IF STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT WARM SECTOR OVER MS/AL HAS SO FAR KEPT TSTM DEVELOPMENT QUITE LIMITED DESPITE OTHER SIGNS OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WV IMAGERY DEPICTING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST...AND FCSTS OF DPVA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL FCSTS WITH ETA...RUC...WRF AND ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATING STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND CONVECTIVE QPF FROM ECNTRL MS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL INTO LATE THIS EVENING. IF STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...VERY POTENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50KT WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO FAST MOVING ORGANIZED STORMS AND A NEW WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED OVER THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34008864 34038776 33878671 32838631 31748609 31218610 31108683 31088807 31078897 32168950 32908853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 00:25:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 19:25:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230024.j2N0Oq8R009797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230024 SCZ000-GAZ000-230100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67... VALID 230024Z - 230100Z WELL ORGANIZED MESOLOW AND ASSOCIATED BOWING SEGMENTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WERE MOVING OFFSHORE FROM SAV TO CHS THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THE WEDGE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS... 31337965 31558133 32718092 33238015 33137922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 01:40:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 20:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230140.j2N1eLqU005885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230139 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL...SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 69... VALID 230139Z - 230215Z CLOUD TOP WARMING AND GENERAL DECREASE IN RADAR REFLECTIVELY SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO WATCH 69 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. ONE EXCEPTION IS PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED CELL NOW TRACKING ACROSS WEDGE FRONT OVER DOUGHERTY COUNTY AND TOWARD LEE COUNTY GA. THIS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INGEST RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY... THE REGION IS BETWEEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING TO THE WEST...AND INTENSE MCS TO THE EAST...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NRN FL. MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION AND AIR MASS RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE SHORT-TERM...OTHER WATCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 30978535 31198438 31758367 31738316 29728324 29728527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 01:49:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 20:49:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230148.j2N1mWvq012545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230147 ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-230315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN NERN MS / NWRN AL / SWRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71... VALID 230147Z - 230315Z STRONG CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW AND FORECAST INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH DURATION OF WW. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DECREASING WITH TIME GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AS STORMS MOVE NEWD WHERE INSTABILITY DECREASES. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE RISES AREA-WIDE LAST HOUR WHILE PROFILERS SHOW VEERING 850 MB WIND FIELDS...SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE DECREASE. NONETHELESS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ESPECIALLY ERN SECTIONS OF WW WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATEST. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34098683 34008920 36939018 36938761 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 03:37:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 22:37:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230337.j2N3bG57006479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230336 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72... VALID 230336Z - 230500Z CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET OF 80KT TRANSLATES ACROSS MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM AL INTO WRN GA. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND WRN GA SHORTLY. STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN AL ATTM. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG IN A CORRIDOR FOCUSED ALONG WARM/WEDGE FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG A NW-SE LINE FROM MSL TO BHM TO MGM. STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO OR ALONG THE WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY HIGH 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250-300 M2/S2 AND THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS UPPER TROUGH SPREADS GRADUALLY EWD...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL AND WRN GA SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 30908690 30818845 32038853 34288814 34298583 33538514 33188467 32808378 31978372 31158453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 04:13:17 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2005 23:13:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230412.j2N4CkJ4002851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230411 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230411Z - 230615Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS... AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT CONVECTION IN WRN TN IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...AND EVEN LESS INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS AIRMASS IS STILL TRYING TO RECOVER...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE ALSO FORMING IN THE FAVORED ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH 06-08Z TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. LATEST VWP DATA FROM NASHVILLE TN SUGGESTS SFC-1KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 35 KT...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60 KT AND VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KM. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...DAMAGING WIND OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UPON FURTHER REVIEW...A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM GIVEN CONTINUED BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. ..TAYLOR.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN... 34348571 34348767 36318758 36338716 36278586 36168508 35918500 35378525 34918537 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 05:38:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 00:38:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230538.j2N5cJ45006346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230537 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230537 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-230700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL AND PARTS OF WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72...73... VALID 230537Z - 230700Z STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 72...AND WILL MOVE INTO NEWLY ISSUED WATCH 73 SHORTLY. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED LATE TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS WARM SECTOR OVER SCNTRL AL. MOST PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED CELL WAS NEAR SQUALL LINE WARM FRONT INTERSECTION RECENTLY ANALYZED OVER ERN CHILTON COUNTY AL. THIS PARTICULAR STORM APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH MESOSCALE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAP STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS PRONOUNCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AIDED BY 80 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX. ..CARBIN.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30828692 30838847 32348702 33098634 33168604 32988428 32968366 30788412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 07:18:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 02:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230717.j2N7HvF7011655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230717 FLZ000-230915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230717Z - 230915Z WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS REGION...AND MOVE ONSHORE FL W COAST FROM GULF -- PRIMARILY BETWEEN LEVY/ALACHUA/PUTNAM/ST JOHNS COUNTIES SWD TO TBW-MLB LINE. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND NEBULOUS...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SMALL CINH...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TRENDS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY MAY BE ARRANGED ALONG S EDGE OF LARGE PRECIP PLUME NOW EVIDENT FROM LEVY COUNTY SWWD OVER GULF...N OF WHICH SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN LOW 60S F. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THAT PLUME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F...DEW POINTS APCHG 70 F...AND NEARLY SFC-BASED MUCAPE OF APPROXIMATELY 1500 J/KG. TBW VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG FOR SLIGHT RIGHT--MOVING STORMS AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AMBIENT KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE ALSO WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 50-60 KT. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG SERN EDGE OF PRECIP PLUME WHERE BAROCLINICITY IS STRONGEST. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28548346 29358263 29918183 29978135 29458110 29068079 28728055 28478076 28158146 27848271 28008344 28418350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 07:29:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 02:29:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230728.j2N7Sdcc019100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230727 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-230830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72... VALID 230727Z - 230830Z WW 72 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING OVER S-CENTRAL AL ALONG TAIL END OF ACTIVITY EXTENDING NEWD INTO FAR NRN GA...APPEARS SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. WITH STRONGER CELLS MOVING INTO TORNADO WATCH 73... AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH STORMS ALONG TAIL END OF LINE REMAINING WEAK...WILL ALLOW WW 72 TO EXPIRE AT 08Z WITHOUT RE-ISSUANCE. ..EVANS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34298846 34288584 31308659 30838701 30888917 33218894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 07:37:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 02:37:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230736.j2N7aa3s023768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230735 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-230900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA S OF WW 73 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230735Z - 230900Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DISCUSSION AREA BECAUSE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM GULF ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION. EXTENSIVE PRECIP PLUME IS EVIDENT FROM NERN GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA...MOVING TOWARD JAX. AIR MASS NW OF THAT AREA IS RECOVERING -- ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC AMIDST 50 KT LLJ. INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED WITH INLAND EXTENT ATTM...WITH SFC-BASED BUOYANCY PRESENTLY CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND SWD OVER SHELF WATERS AND NRN LOOP CURRENT. HOWEVER... CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA OFF GULF MAY RESULT IN DOWNWARD MIXING AND INLAND SHIFT OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS MORE OF CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER EVEN WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 70...BUT 2000-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE BECAUSE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WELL TO N OVER GA. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEARS OF 55-65 KT -- AND 200-350 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH FOR ANY RIGHT-MOVING STORMS...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30958653 31028586 31068514 30998344 30858323 30568333 30388375 30128415 29628502 29418544 29648619 29918659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 08:13:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 03:13:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230812.j2N8Cai5015558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230811 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AL...SWRN/CENTRAL/NERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...74... VALID 230811Z - 231015Z GENERAL DECREASING TREND NOTED WITH BAND OF CONVECTION LOCATED AT 8Z FROM ATL METRO AREA SWWD TO INVOF TOI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 20-30 KT ACROSS WWS -- LOCALLY FASTER WHERE LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS ACCELERATE. ONE OR BOTH WWS MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATIONS IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PIEDMONT FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG LINE FROM CAE...AGS...30 N MCN...TO INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOUNDARY INVOF LGC. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE DISTINCT DEPTHS OF INFLOW-LAYER ELEVATION AGL...RELATED TO SHALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER OF DIABATIC COOLING S OF PIEDMONT FRONT AND MORE STATICALLY STABLE/DEEPER FRONTAL LAYER OVER NRN GA. PRIND SEVERE PROBABILITIES -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH BOWS -- IS DIMINISHING AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO SEGMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG AND S OF FRONT WHERE STABLE LAYER IS SHALLOWEST. LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVEN NEWD SHIFT OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS AWAY FROM THIS AREA...AND RESULTANT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO COMPONENT MORE PARALLEL TO CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 33258565 33508563 34158247 33148244 32958349 31048421 31068692 33248615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 09:17:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 04:17:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503230917.j2N9HIL1028964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230916 SCZ000-GAZ000-231045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN SC...S-CENTRAL AND ERN GA...E OF WWS 73/74 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230916Z - 231045Z LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL GA MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 9Z...PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...EXTENDED FROM VICINITY ABY NEWD TO NEAR AGS. WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSIFYING TSTMS EXTENDED FARTHER NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SC. ACTIVITY WAS INTENSIFYING IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WARM SECTOR LOCATED SE OF PIEDMONT FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM CAE...AGS...50 WNW MCN. OTHER...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SWRN GA AND CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE MAY LINK WITH GA LINE OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. WEAK LAPSE RATES IN LOWEST 50-100 MB LAYER AGL MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. HOWEVER...ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SRH 250-350 J/KG...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BOWS AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31178444 32208378 33588230 34238151 34148076 33418091 32488135 31338215 30938329 30988422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 11:23:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 06:23:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231122.j2NBMpfQ018242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231121 FLZ000-231315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 231121Z - 231315Z BROAD BELT OF CONVECTION -- ALIGNED NE-SW -- COVERS MUCH OF NRN AND W-CENTRAL FL. A FEW POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MINI-SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED IN SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS BAND AS OF 1115Z...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PENINSULA...AND AS CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN A CLUSTER WELL OFFSHORE...LEADING EDGE 60-75 NM W SRQ ATTM...WHICH COULD AFFECT SWRN PORTIONS WW IF THE CLUSTER HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS SHELF WATERS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST...BUOYANT AND SHEARED. SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SUPPORT NEARLY SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS...LITTLE TO NO CINH...AND AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. THOSE SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH REGIONAL VWP...SUGGEST AROUND 200 J/KG SRH ON 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. ANTICIPATED VEERING OF SFC FLOW -- ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTURE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CAROLINAS -- MAY REDUCE CONVERGENCE/S-R INFLOW AND SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR TIME BEING...TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27418115 27418313 29348250 29348051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 13:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 08:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231347.j2NDlMdQ012441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231346 FLZ000-231445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 231346Z - 231445Z REMAINDER WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR TIME BEING...AND AREAS FARTHER SE WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW AS SFC HEATING INCREASES BUOYANCY. PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND NOTED BOTH WITH CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL FL...AND ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE SRQ REGION. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY PROFILES STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...PER BLEND OF MLB VWP AND 12Z MFL RAOB...CONVECTIVE MODE AND ORIENTATION APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE ATTM. ONE OFFSETTING FACTOR WHICH MAY REKINDLE SEVERE THREAT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...IS DIABATIC SFC HEATING THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN PRECONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER E-CENTRAL AND SRN FL. MODIFIED MFL RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH REMOVED WITH ONLY 2-3 DEG F MORE SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS 72-74 F AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED ALONG SE COAST. THIS YIELDS MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...DESPITE SOME VEERING OF SFC WINDS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28458080 27188008 26408001 26188019 25908081 25788144 26078201 27418313 29348250 29348051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 15:48:19 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 10:48:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231547.j2NFllNg007407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231546 FLZ000-231615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75... VALID 231546Z - 231615Z NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR CENTRAL INTO SRN FL. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AT 1530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SEMINOLE COUNTY SWWD TO OFF THE COAST AT CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE OVER THE ERN GULF. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED A WEAKENING COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE INLAND LINE OF STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERING SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS ERN AND SRN FL SUGGESTS FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REST OF ERN INTO SRN FL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. AREA WILL...HOWEVER...REQUIRE CONTINUED MONITORING SINCE CIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS SRN FL WHERE VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27218251 27398183 28358146 28378047 27208010 26128007 25628023 25598100 25728143 25858180 26738245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 16:43:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 11:43:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231643.j2NGh778001021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231641 WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-231745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231641Z - 231745Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV AND SWRN VA. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN KY WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE HEATING BENEATH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHILE 15Z RUC INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LOW... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIMITING FACTOR ATTM FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE IS THE FORECAST OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY SHOWS SIGNS OF GREATER VALUES THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ERN KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV/SWRN VA. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX... 36728462 37998387 38558295 38658062 36998108 35468241 34988385 35158491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 17:43:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 12:43:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231743.j2NHgxRS030924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231742 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-231915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NC AND SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231742Z - 231915Z MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING...ALTHOUGH WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATTM WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS NRN SC INTO SRN NC. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD ALONG/E OF SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW 25 E GSO SWWD TO 30 SE CLT TO 35 SE AHN. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG/E OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA. NWD EXTENT FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE DELINEATED BY A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO SRN DELMARVA. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AS THE INSTABILITY BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... 34838062 35897958 36597819 37377682 37437564 36437546 35127526 34287689 33647831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 19:21:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 14:21:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503231921.j2NJLFcO011714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231920 FLZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231920Z - 232045Z SRN FL IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF AT 10-40 MILES W OF THE FL COAST. THE AIR MASS OVER SRN FL HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. DESPITE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS BEING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SRN FL ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN GULF LINE OF STORMS. THUS... FORWARD SPEED AND OVERALL POTENTIAL DEGREE OF SEVERITY OF THIS LINE WILL BE MAINLY FORCED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. CURRENT SPEED OF THIS LINE /AROUND 27 KT/ INDICATED A LOW THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES ATTM AND INTO THE REST OF THE SWRN PENINSULA BY 20-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN MOTION AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW... 26818237 27408026 26517994 25318018 24988072 24968103 25808180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 23 21:51:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 16:51:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503232151.j2NLpD53003949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232150 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NC INTO SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232150Z - 232245Z WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF NC INTO SERN VA. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN VA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO 45 N RWI AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN NC TO NWRN NC AT 40 N HKY. A LEE TROUGH DELINEATING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE EAST EXTENDED FROM THE COLD FRONT NW OF RWI SWWD TO NEAR CAE. AIR MASS LOCATED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WRN NC AND S OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN DRYING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA DETECTED AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN NC AS THE LEADING EDGE OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MID LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS SPREAD EWD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...BUT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FURTHER AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA AS THE UVVS SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI OF THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 03/23/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 36488033 36747983 36757853 37207707 37317594 36597580 35847555 35417551 34937644 34757789 34887978 35088100 35368201 35978101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 01:49:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 20:49:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503240148.j2O1mwgl016748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240147 NCZ000-240315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76... VALID 240147Z - 240315Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP NEAR FRONT ACROSS ERN NC / WITHIN WW 76. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS NC ATTM...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ATTM FROM WILSON COUNTY ENEWD TOWARD ALBEMARLE SOUND. THOUGH EVENING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ RAOB SHOWED LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REVEALED BY THIS RAOB AND RAX /RALEIGH NC/ WSR-88D VWP SUGGEST THAT A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL CONTINUES. ..GOSS.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 36317612 36307572 35297578 35258023 35757810 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 03:15:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 22:15:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503240314.j2O3EuS2024143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240310 NCZ000-240415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC / THE OUTER BANKS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76... VALID 240310Z - 240415Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING A LONE SUPERCELL NOW MOVING INTO NRN DALE COUNTY -- CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS E CENTRAL / NERN NC WITHIN ERN PORTIONS OF WW 76. STORMS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST N OF COLD FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN NC ATTM. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WW 0076 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 24/04Z. ..GOSS.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 36317612 36307572 35597526 35167546 35317731  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 03:29:18 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 22:29:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503240328.j2O3ShBp003490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240327 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-240900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CST WED MAR 23 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY...SRN VT/NH...MA...CT AND RI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 240327Z - 240900Z HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN VT/NH AND ERN MA THROUGH 06Z...WHILE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SRN/ERN NY DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS NRN CT/RI AND WRN/SRN MA THROUGH 09Z. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT WORKING IT/S WAY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCES OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEFORMATION ALONG A LINE FROM SRN NY EWD INTO WRN MA/NRN MA. A VERY DRY AIRMASS NOTED BELOW 700 MB EXISTS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS 03Z OBSERVED DEWPTS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW PROGRESS OF THE HVY SNOWFALL BANDS INTO THIS REGION AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO SATURATE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM HVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID LEVELS AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS HVY SNOW INTO BOS/FAR NERN MA AREA BETWEEN 04Z-06Z AND FAR SRN VT/NH BETWEEN 05Z-07Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM NY...DEFORMATION HVY SNOW BAND CURRENTLY OVER SCENTRAL/ECENTRAL NY WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THIS AREA THROUGH 09Z. EXPECT HVY SNOW TO END IN THE BGM AREA/SCENTRAL NY AROUND 06Z...AND IN THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/ECENTRAL NY BY AROUND 09Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM... 43077073 42857556 42337662 41927608 41527315 41657140 41836987 42496986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 18:59:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 13:59:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503241859.j2OIx4LT020819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241858 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE KS...NE OK...SW MO...NE AR CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 241858Z - 242100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON. EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION ...AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS BY EARLY EVENING. INFLUENCE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ONGOING WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. MOISTURE VALUES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE STILL RATHER LOW...BUT STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY SATURATING LOW/MID-LEVELS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF BETTER MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS SHOULD...IN TURN...SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TULSA OK AREA AS EARLY AS 24/21Z...BEFORE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD WITH FORCING...INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 25/00Z. MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH/WEST...SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED...OR CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING...IF AT ALL. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36539641 36919573 37639467 37439318 37089302 36379306 35209402 34779490 34819565 35489676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 19:05:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 14:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503241904.j2OJ4oLk026530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241903 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE KS...NE OK...SW MO...NE AR CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 241903Z - 242100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON. EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION ...AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS BY EARLY EVENING. INFLUENCE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ONGOING WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. MOISTURE VALUES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE STILL RATHER LOW...BUT STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY SATURATING LOW/MID-LEVELS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF BETTER MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS SHOULD...IN TURN...SUPPORT INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TULSA OK AREA AS EARLY AS 24/21Z...BEFORE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD WITH FORCING...INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 25/00Z. MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH/WEST...SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED...OR CLOSE TO SURFACE-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING...IF AT ALL. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36539641 36919573 37639467 37439318 37089302 36379306 35209402 34779490 34819565 35489676 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 20:05:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 15:05:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242005.j2OK59CV021827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242004 FLZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242004Z - 242200Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:24:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242124.j2OLOG1j006194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242123 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242123Z - 242330Z ...RETRANSMITTED... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:27:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:27:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242126.j2OLQOoR008174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242125 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242125Z - 242330Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:32:29 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:32:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242131.j2OLVqAM013946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242123 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242123Z - 242330Z ...RETRANSMITTED... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 21:33:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 16:33:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242132.j2OLWlE2014748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242125 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242125 FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0325 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242125Z - 242330Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...BUT NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED INTO INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...AND WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...NOW MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST...NORTH OF FORT MYERS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... 27148228 27278176 27138158 26948133 26898104 26718056 26448040 26158051 25988068 25638066 25438079 25658105 25998115 26198137 26358162 26868221  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:02:11 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:02:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242201.j2OM1bhg011096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242200 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242200Z - 250000Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:03:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:03:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242203.j2OM3452012663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242202 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242202Z - 250000Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:16:56 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:16:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242216.j2OMGKcq024430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242215Z - 250015Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:20:47 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:20:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242220.j2OMKAsG028040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242200 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242200Z - 250000Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:20:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242220.j2OMKICl028173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242219 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0419 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242219Z - 250015Z .....RETRANSMITTED..... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:21:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:21:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242221.j2OML3Tk028701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242200 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242200Z - 250000Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:22:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:22:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242221.j2OMLVx0029106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242202 OKZ000-TXZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242202Z - 250000Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:24:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:24:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242224.j2OMO5hW032230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242223 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242223Z - 250030Z .....RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:26:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242225.j2OMPPEW000856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242224 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242224Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:27:05 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:27:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242226.j2OMQRQv001774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242225 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242225Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED....... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:32:52 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:32:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242232.j2OMWE9Z006795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242231 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242231Z - 250030Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:40:31 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:40:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242239.j2OMds6M013592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242239 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242239Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:42:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:42:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242241.j2OMfhEB015155@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242240 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242240Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:46:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242246.j2OMkHAs019057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242215 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242215Z - 250015Z ....RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:49:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:49:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242249.j2OMn1wL021742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242219 OKZ000-TXZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0419 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242219Z - 250015Z .....RETRANSMITTED..... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:51:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:51:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242250.j2OMoRlN022892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242223 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242223Z - 250030Z .....RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:51:30 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:51:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242250.j2OMov7X023229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242224 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242224Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED...... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:51:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:51:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242251.j2OMp8dG023409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242225 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242225Z - 250030Z ......RETRANSMITTED....... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 22:56:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 17:56:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242256.j2OMu50O027821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242231 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242231Z - 250030Z ...RETRANSMITTED... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 23:01:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 18:01:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242301.j2ON11nm031976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242239 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242239Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 23:02:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 18:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242302.j2ON2ATM032718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242240 OKZ000-TXZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE TX...S CNTRL/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242240Z - 250045Z ...RETRANSMITTED.... WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE DRY LINE...ON NOSE OF MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS JET CORE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE. INFLOW OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. THUS...AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ..KERR.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33759770 34259714 34509653 34349588 33829545 33349608 32899667 32809734 32919804 33379767  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 24 23:03:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 18:03:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503242302.j2ON2jPO000710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242301 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL / NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN MO / EXTREME NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242301Z - 250100Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AS LAPSE RATES SFC AND ALOFT INCREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU INCREASING NEAR WATONGA OK WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS THE NE. ADDITIONAL TCU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR ADA OK ON THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HAIL. MODIFIED 18Z LMN RAOB AND FCST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES. THUS...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES NEARING GOLF-BALL. ..JEWELL.. 03/24/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35669847 36709727 37239684 38069623 38299561 38279469 38299403 38289338 34659435 34439674 35629662 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 02:04:33 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 21:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503250203.j2P23vjo011732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250202 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-250330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / SWRN AR / WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77... VALID 250202Z - 250330Z SCATTERED STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK / WITHIN WW 0077...AND SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN MO / WRN AR. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS...WHICH HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 1 1/4 INCHES. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SEVERAL STORM SPLITS...WITH THE LARGEST HAIL THUS FAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT-MOVING / ANTICYCLONICALLY-ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH INSTABILITY FURTHER DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO SWRN MO / WRN AR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH COULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW. ..GOSS.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 37339518 37539338 37099285 35969291 33849364 33759510 33639641 33969723 36189668 36999648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 07:57:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 02:57:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503250756.j2P7ug9I029560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250755 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-250930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL INCLUDING THE PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250755Z - 250930Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH SUNRISE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AHEAD OF A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WLYS. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN GULF AND NRN FL. A STRONG LEFT-MOVING SPLIT HAS BEEN LONG-LIVED AND WILL MOVE INTO NCNTRL FL THROUGH 09Z...WITH OTHER SPLITS OCCURRING WEST OF KTLH. MORE STORMS ARE APT TO FORM ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELEVATED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LARGE HAIL THREAT GOING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BUT...ISOLD NATURE TO THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ATTM. IF STORMS SHOW MORE ORGANIZATION OR IF THE HAIL THREAT BECOMES GREATER...A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30668706 31688399 31718286 31738140 31418061 30208041 28358037 27728261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 08:13:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 03:13:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503250813.j2P8D1w9008583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250812 ARZ000-250945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78... VALID 250812Z - 250945Z TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED TO SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS SINCE 06Z ACROSS NWRN AR...INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CELLS ARE LIKELY BEING FED FROM UNSTABLE NEAR SURFACE BASED PARCELS UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN OK/WCNTRL AR WHERE MUCAPES OF 900-1000 J/KG ARE COMMON. KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT ONLY CONDUCIVE TO FORWARD PROPAGATION...BUT ALSO BACKBUILDING...WHICH HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR/N OF KFSM. THOUGH THE STORMS APPEAR ELEVATED...RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD LOCALLY PRODUCE NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. UNLESS STORMS BECOME MORE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ISSUED. BUT...WILL CONTINUE WW 78 UNTIL THE 10Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... 34969442 35759434 36479355 36459181 35709101 34759155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 16:08:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 11:08:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503251607.j2PG7xu3031735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251607 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251607 FLZ000-251800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FLORIDA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 79... VALID 251607Z - 251800Z CONTINUE WW. SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST SHORTLY...AND RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE COULD TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY. HOWEVER...30 KT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BIG BEND. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE THREAT...AND POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...BUT SURFACE HEATING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN PENINSULA AREAS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS CLUSTER MOVES BACK ONSHORE. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/NORTH OF CEDAR KEY INTO THE OCALA AREA BY THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30038389 30108307 29928221 29618174 29168169 28958187 28778225 28818263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Mar 25 16:24:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 11:24:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503251623.j2PGNSWk008544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251622 SCZ000-GAZ000-251815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80... VALID 251622Z - 251815Z CONTINUE WW...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE CURRENT 20Z EXPIRATION...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 18Z. STRONGEST CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT CLEARS COASTAL AREAS...AS SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THUS...RISK OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HAIL CONTINUES IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH INSTABILITY WANING. ..KERR.. 03/25/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... 31528121 31618193 31938254 32288259 32598192 32718079 32667986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 02:04:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 21:04:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503260203.j2Q23LOB005821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260202 TXZ000-260400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82... VALID 260202Z - 260400Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OFF WW...INCLUDING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED S AND E OF CURRENT WW. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM NOW MOVING ACROSS LLANO COUNTY. THOUGH THIS SUPERCELL STORM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF SURFACE FRONT...ITS MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND SUGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN ONLY SLIGHTLY SURFACE-BASED -- AND THUS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG WITH HAIL. WITH OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SHOULD PERSIST -- AND MOVE ESEWD OUT OF CURRENT WW WITH TIME...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED S AND E OF CURRENT WATCH. ..GOSS.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30070062 30450143 32419870 33169782 33459586 31399491 30039501 30469826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 04:27:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 23:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503260426.j2Q4QUu5029888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260425 TXZ000-260600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83... VALID 260425Z - 260600Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN 2/3 OF WW AREA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERE STORM EXITING BASTROP / ENTERING LEE COUNTY TX ATTM...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN TX. THIS STORM REMAINS THE ONLY ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORM ACROSS WW AREA...AND HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR IN BOTH RADAR AND IR IMAGERY. NONETHELESS...STORM STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31009732 31519470 30099438 29519744 30359718 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 06:57:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 01:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503260657.j2Q6vHFL022499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260656 TXZ000-260830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260656Z - 260830Z AN INCREASING RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX THIS MORNING. A WW MAY BECOME REQUIRED. RECENT RADAR SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ACROSS WCNTRL TX NEAR/NW OF KSJT. THIS REGION IS BEGINNING TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM A NM UPPER LOW. AS THE LOW ROTATES CLOSER...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX AND SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RUC40 OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PARCELS FEEDING THESE STORMS WILL ORIGINATE FROM OVER SCNTRL TX AND MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 900-1100 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL AVERAGE AROUND 40 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT. INITIAL...AND A LARGE SHARE OF ANY SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT IF STORMS CAN BUILD SWD INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT... DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATER THIS MORNING FROM NEAR/S OF A ROCK SPRINGS...LLANO...GEORGETOWN...WACO LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/STREAK NEWD FROM THE WCNTRL TX ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX...PERHAPS REACHING TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND WACO BY 12Z. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32220158 32709911 32419731 31949705 31029698 29659713 29399905 29300095 30930172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 10:21:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 05:21:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261021.j2QALHO1010038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261020 TXZ000-261215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84... VALID 261020Z - 261215Z NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DARKENING TREND/JET STREAK MIGRATING INTO THE TX BIG BEND AREA. INCREASING UVV ON THE NOSE OF THIS JETLET AND RESULTANT ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION REGIME ARE PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCAPES OF 800-1100 J/KG AND AN AVERAGE 40 KTS OF SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. SO FAR...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED WITH UPDRAFT BASES AOA 4800 FT AGL. BUT...ONE OR TWO TSTMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO N-S LINEAR STRUCTURES AND BEGIN TO BOW. THIS COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY S OF A KSJT-KFTW LINE. VAD WIND PROFILERS FROM AREA RADARS SHOW THAT THE LAYER OF STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THIN...LESS THAN 500 METERS THICK. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. STRONGEST TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING MCS. THAT WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 45S KMAF-35S KABI-SEP-45NW KAUS-45S KJCT-KP07-45S KMAF THROUGH 14Z. BACKBUILDING OF THE TSTMS INTO THE SANDERSON-FORT STOCKTON AREAS WILL PROBABLY PROLONG ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX THROUGH THE MORNING. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29680174 30880299 32050274 32910151 32999810 29659829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 11:39:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 06:39:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261139.j2QBdAs2009607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261137 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261137Z - 261330Z THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS WEAK H5 RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SRN PLAINS TROUGH. TROPICAL AIR MASS/WARM FRONT... CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S DEW POINTS...WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT NEWD ON INCREASING SLY FLOW AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OFFSHORE NRN FL. STORMS ARE LIKELY FEEDING OFF PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACCELERATES...STORMS ARE APT TO BACKBUILD WWD AND EXPAND EWD FROM EXTREME SRN AL TO NRN/CNTRL FL. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE UNIDIRECTIONALITY OF THE FLOW AOA H85 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STEEP AS EARLY FRIDAY MORNINGS...BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER STORM. MOREOVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ADDED THREAT LATER THIS MORNING AS UPDRAFTS BEGIN TO ROOT LOWER. AS THE CONVECTION EVOLUTION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND LOCATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREATS BECOME EVIDENT...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF NRN-CNTRL FL/EXTREME SRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...LIX... 30348851 31038683 30868477 30548254 30018126 28588069 27788086 28088313 28578659 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 12:13:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 07:13:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261213.j2QCD8ib023011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261212 TXZ000-261315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84... VALID 261212Z - 261315Z UNLESS TSTMS BEGIN TO SHOW A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...THE THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD EWD OUT OF WW 84 IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. H5 JETLET CONTINUES TO WRAP EWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO ERN TX THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN EWD TREND IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR KTPL. THE ONLY NEGATIVE WILL BE THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. BUT...THIS MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CURRENT WW. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHALLOW AND DOWNBURSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS WELL. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRONGER UVV/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE KSJT/KMAF AREAS SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 29850174 31140153 32299968 32459649 31009636 29899757 29399892 29470113 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 15:09:28 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 10:09:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261508.j2QF8iE3001963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261507 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261507Z - 261700Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES. TRENDS ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODELS ...AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES IS UNDERWAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...LONGER TERM PROSPECTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING INFLUENCE OF BUILD RIDGE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30338874 31058876 32058821 32718679 32438500 31888315 31278215 30878171 30078133 29358117 28838181 28448263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 15:14:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 10:14:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261513.j2QFDxSa004081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261513 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261513Z - 261715Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES. TRENDS ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODELS ...AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STATES IS UNDERWAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF INCREASING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY ACROSS EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...LONGER TERM PROSPECTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING INFLUENCE OF BUILD RIDGE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30338874 31058876 32058821 32718679 32438500 31888315 31278215 30878171 30078133 29358117 28838181 28448263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 16:07:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 11:07:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261606.j2QG6dvN028611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261605 TXZ000-261800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261605Z - 261800Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 85 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS...AND IS NOW SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT/LUFKIN/COLLEGE STATION/ AND SAN ANTONIO...WITH A SHALLOWER COLD SURGE NOSING INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF STRONG DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THIS IS MAINTAINING VERY MOIST POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BENEATH DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH...IS SUPPORTING BROAD RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS. STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS IN BAND APPROACHING INTERSTATE 35...NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO INTO THE WACO AREAS. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...LIKELY REACHING THE TYLER/LONGVIEW/LUFKIN AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLLEGE STATION INTO AREAS EAST OF SAN ANTONIO BY 21Z. MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR TOWARD THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...AS HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS FROM SOUTH OF FRONT BEGINS TO FEED INTO ACTIVITY. WITH MUCH OF ACTIVITY BASED ABOVE RELATIVELY SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...LARGE HAIL MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...CELLS ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR FRONT...IN AREA BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO/AUSTIN/VICTORIA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE/WHEN RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 30049878 31269783 31929689 32219617 32299546 32049454 31489445 30539472 29959536 29189667 28679767 28679912 29069959 29429928 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 18:44:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 13:44:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261843.j2QIhJNE008125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261842 TXZ000-NMZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 261842Z - 262045Z LIMITED RISK OF STRONG/ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...STRONG COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT 500 MB JET DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY DESTABILIZING MECHANISM. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY AROUND 21Z...AS LOW-LEVELS COOL AND LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33090557 33430516 33890472 33980414 33550350 32730325 31900336 31690396 31910506 32540563 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 19:15:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 14:15:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261914.j2QJEwTw021726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261914 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LA AND MS...SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261914Z - 262115Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY...RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 18Z SOUNDING FROM SLIDELL LA INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SINCE 12Z. DEEP NEAR SATURATED LAYER WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO ENVIRONMENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WHICH HAS HEATED INTO THE LOWER 80S. AS THIS OCCURS...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY BY 21Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS ARE ALREADY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000-2000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29889338 30979349 32159246 32889126 32278906 31948834 31468771 30928738 30298758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 19:52:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 14:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503261951.j2QJpPLG004230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261950 SCZ000-GAZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN AND CNTRL GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86... VALID 261950Z - 262145Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 86. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW FARTHER NORTH. LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FINALLY WEAKENING. NEW FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...EAST OF ATLANTA GA INTO AREAS SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SC. BRANCH OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EASTERN GEORGIA...AND WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33688509 34088404 33658245 33528108 32797997 31588065 31278151 31358254 31738357 32468494 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 21:15:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 16:15:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262115.j2QLFBSb010105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262114 MSZ000-LAZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SW LA INTO CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262114Z - 262145Z ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO INCLUDE AREAS NORTH/WEST OF WW 87. ..KERR.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30849335 31589254 32409192 33319039 32868950 31739000 30839081 30159187 30019291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 22:44:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 17:44:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262243.j2QMhGe3016043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262242 TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX/CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO FAR NRN MS/WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262242Z - 270045Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST TSTMS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR NE TX/CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO FAR NRN MS/WRN TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF WEST TX UPPER TROUGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME EXPECTED TO SPARK INCREASING AREAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM NE TX TOWARD FAR NRN MS/WRN TN THIS EVENING. NORTH OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE...21Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN LA/NRN MS TO 250 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND/ABOVE 850 MB. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER /E.G. DEQUEEN PROFILER/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WITH A PREDOMINANT HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34809279 35689113 36528957 36138884 35288873 34478942 33789087 33049248 32729398 32799494 33589513 33879474 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 22:52:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 17:52:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262251.j2QMpqYb019124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262251 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-262345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262251Z - 262345Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SRN/CNTRL GA INTO NRN FL... NUMEROUS...INTENSIFYING SUPERCELLS ARE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ASSUREDLY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN GA AND NRN PORTIONS OF FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32538510 32748200 32098057 30528143 30208313 30478570 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Mar 26 23:55:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 18:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503262354.j2QNsrY4010310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262354 ALZ000-MSZ000-270100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 87...88... VALID 262354Z - 270100Z ...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON... DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF AL WILL SOON MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIFTS NWD INTO REGION. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY POSE MOSTLY A HAIL THREAT...OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE SURGE SPREADS NWD AHEAD OF SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE PARAMETERS SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 03/26/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31738985 33538848 33118555 31418560 31688759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 03:19:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 22:19:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270319.j2R3J3Lp019593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270318 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270318Z - 270415Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM NERN LA INTO SERN AR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ATOP SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS OVER NERN LA IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WITH PARCELS ROOTED AOB 850MB FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...PER 00Z SHV SOUNDING. IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT REGION JUST NW OF THE COLD FRONT. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33079252 35249072 34529006 32909090 32099171 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 04:46:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 23:46:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270445.j2R4jH40018660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270443 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...GA...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 92...93... VALID 270443Z - 270545Z ...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCHES. SEVERE THREAT IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO NERN FL/SERN GA WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS SERVED TO ANCHOR A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL...ARCING NWWD INTO CENTRAL AL...SERVING AS THE DEMARKATION OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS AND MOST ACTIVITY SEVERE WEATHER HAS OCCURRED NEAR THIS ZONE. WITH TIME THIS BOUNDARY/SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD LIFT NWD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 33298776 32878620 30818290 29658377 30358639 31458810 32058923  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 05:34:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 00:34:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270533.j2R5XqBZ004565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270532 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-270630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91... VALID 270532Z - 270630Z ...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF MS... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS LIFTING NEWD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH INTO WCNTRL PORTIONS OF WW...VERY NEAR JAN. PERSISTENT E-W WARM FRONT THAT HAS SERVED AS A CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TONIGHT WILL SOON LIFT NWD IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALLOWING NRN MS TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE ANY STORMS THAT REDEVELOP ALONG THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY COULD ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES. FARTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SPREADING NEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY REALIZE HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS MS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33629111 34389049 34738899 33988817 32368891 31919048 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 06:54:32 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 01:54:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270653.j2R6rjrY002163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270652 LAZ000-TXZ000-270845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST/ERN TX AND WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270652Z - 270845Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE AND POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SEVERE TSTM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. MAIN PORTION OF PARENT UPPER LOW WAS SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VIGOROUS UVV BEGINNING TO AFFECT ERN TX. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG H85 FRONT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE SABINE RVR IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...HIGHEST HAIL RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE KLCH AREA THROUGH 10Z. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28639757 29479652 31069560 32089455 32299326 31669204 29899169 28539232 27589546 27519730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 07:15:42 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 02:15:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270714.j2R7EuKn009305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270714 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-270845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...THE DEEP SOUTH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...92...93... VALID 270714Z - 270845Z TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING. TORNADO WATCHES 91...92...93 AND 94 REMAIN IN TACT AND WILL BE ADJUSTED WITH AS NEEDED. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW VCNTY KJAN WITH A TWO WARM FRONTS EXTENDING EWD...ONE FROM KJAN EWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRATIFORM RAIN INTO CNTRL GA AND THE PRIMARY FRONT THROUGH SRN AL INTO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL. MAIN COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED THROUGH SCNTRL LA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SERN MS/SWRN AL BORDER INTO THE BOOTHVILLE LA AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN STREAMERS ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION AND MATURE INTO TSTMS INLAND AS THEY APPROACH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL AND SWRN GA. RECENT TREND IN SURFACE OBS SEEM TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THE SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BOOSTING 0-1KM SRH VALUES. VWP FROM EOX EXHIBITS TREMENDOUS HELICITY WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 480 M2/S2. THOUGH THE 06Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWED A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ERN FL PNHDL MAY BE S OF THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT...WITH A WEDGE OF SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN FL PNHDL...CNTRL/SRN AL AND SERN MS...OR JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MAIN STORY THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS UPSTREAM AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. TSTMS ARE ALREADY RE-FORMING OVER ERN TX /WITH LEAD STORM NORTH OF HOUSTON MOVING AT 70 KTS/. EXPECT MORE STORMS TO FORM FROM SRN MS/ERN LA AND EXPAND ENEWD INTO WRN FL PNHDL AND SRN AL BY 12Z. ALL INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE FOR A RENEWED TORNADO THREAT AT THAT TIME. FARTHER E...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER FAR SERN GA AND NERN FL AND THE TORNADO WATCH 94 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 30599113 32348978 33618850 34298749 34228489 32918520 31938253 31158101 30048148 29558345 29568674 29899118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 08:28:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 03:28:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270827.j2R8RwBV001582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270827 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270827Z - 270930Z EVIDENCE POINTS TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...ACROSS SERN AL...SWRN GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL THROUGH 12Z. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED AS WT 91...92 AND 93 EXPIRE AT 10Z. VAD WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE AND HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS SERN AL AND SWRN GA. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD WITH RENEWED ACTIVITY STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH VCNTY MOB. INCREASING STORMS...APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND VERY STRONG KINEMATICS SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RATHER HIGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30188887 32158676 32568578 32168410 31508285 29638331 29768664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 09:29:08 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 04:29:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270928.j2R9SN7f024569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270927 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...92... VALID 270927Z - 271000Z TORNADO WATCH 91 AND WRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 92 WILL EXPIRE AT 10Z. THOSE COUNTIES WILL NOT BE IN A WATCH AFTER 10Z. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM SERN AL...SWRN GA AND WRN FL PNHDL SHORTLY. MAIN COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS ERN MS AND CNTRL LA AT 09Z AND IS AWAITING FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER TX TO TRANSLATE EWD BEFORE RESUMING AN EWD MOVEMENT. STRONGEST TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DOWNSTREAM AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF MS AND WRN AL. HOWEVER...STRONG UVV CONTINUES TO STEADILY MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WILL MOVE INTO LA AND WRN MS BY 12Z. AT THAT TIME...NEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND POSE A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE MS VLY...THEN A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER IN THE MORNING FARTHER EAST. THUS...WT 91 AND WRN PORTIONS OF WT 92 WILL EXPIRE ON TIME. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER IN THE MORNING...PRIMARILY AFTER SUNRISE TO COVER ANY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31019112 32508965 34278898 33458722 32298728 31358765 30168867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 09:49:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 04:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503270949.j2R9n3eK031277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270948 LAZ000-TXZ000-271115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95... VALID 270948Z - 271115Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS WS 95 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THE TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SETTLE ESEWD WITH A CENTER VCNTY KABI AT 0930Z. VWP/PROFILERS DEPICT THE CORE OF THE 80-90 KT H5 JET CURVING ACROSS SERN TX WITH VIGOROUS UVV IN EXIT REGION OVER THE SABINE RVR VLY. THIS HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS THIS MORNING... WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE H85-H7 FRONT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO PULSE AND HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM OFFSHORE SERN TX IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN LIKELY DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE SURFACE-H85 FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN LA TOWARD 12Z. THOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF STORMS CAN BECOME LONGER-LIVED THAN THEY HAVE BEEN SINCE 06Z...EXPERIMENTAL LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS VALUES SUGGEST THAT A FEW LEFT-MOVING HAIL PRODUCING MEMBERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LA LATER THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY FROM W-E ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND THE WW WILL BE TRIMMED BY 11Z. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 28749580 30649584 31339218 29629145 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 12:25:57 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 07:25:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271225.j2RCPAvY025329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271224 LAZ000-271430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95... VALID 271224Z - 271430Z 12Z LCH RAOB SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS LIMITED WITH MUCAPE OF 266 J/KG. STRONG ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD INTO SWRN LA...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME MAINTAINING CHARACTER. MORE INSTABILITY WAS OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM AT LIX AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GIVEN TRENDS...WW MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 14Z EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29129372 31199329 31239190 29629136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 12:55:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 07:55:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271254.j2RCsRXi004789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271253 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-271500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL AND SWRN/SCNTRL GA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 96... VALID 271253Z - 271500Z VAD WIND PROFILERS/12Z RAOBS INDICATE TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST INTO SRN GA THIS MORNING. JACKSONVILLE AND PENSACOLA VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW 50 KTS OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SIGNIFICANT TURNING/VEERING THROUGH 2KM. THE SOUNDINGS AT TLH/JAX DO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A STABLE LAYER...BUT ANY HEATING WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LAYERS AND MAKE FOR A MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...SUPPORTING TSTMS. ANY TSTM THAT FORMS WILL HAVE A TORNADO/SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL CELLS WITHIN THE E-W ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SERN AL AND SWRN GA HAVE SHOWN ROTATION...BOTH IN THE MID/LOW-LEVELS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A BRIEF DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FARTHER SW...THE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CLEAR THAT AREA AND 70 SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN. NEXT STRONG UVV SIGNAL IS SEEN IN RADAR/SATL IMAGERY CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER. AS THIS VIGOROUS ASCENT ARRIVES OVER THE WARM SECTOR...A RAPID DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL FORM OVER THE LOWER MS VLY NWD INTO SERN MS AND THEN CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. THUS...ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INCLUDING TORNADOES...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A SECONDARY...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT...THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST THROUGH 15Z IN A 25NM CORRIDOR FROM KDHN-KABY-55NW KAYS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING TOWARD THE HIGHER THETA-E AXIS UPSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL AL...THEN TRAINING ENEWD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL GA. THIS PROCESS MAY LAST A FEW HOURS...CREATING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO. ..RACY.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29728822 31608662 32348382 32308229 29638435 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 15:10:02 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 10:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271509.j2RF9G4O026912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271508 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-271545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0908 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96... VALID 271508Z - 271545Z TORNADO WW 96 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW SHORTLY. 70 TO 90 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TEXAS COAST. AREA OF FOCUSED HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE /AS EVIDENT IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ON LEADING EDGE OF RETURN OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS AIR MASS OVER INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA WARM WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30438766 31118718 31388615 31238512 31218378 31418282 31538208 31278150 30598126 30098158 29758234 29698345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 17:08:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 12:08:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271707.j2RH7oZR006508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271706 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-271800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...PARTS OF NW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271706Z - 271800Z SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS ALABAMA...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ALABAMA...IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF MOBILE...BUT INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORENCE/DECATUR AREAS...WHERE DEEPENING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS...WHICH IS ALSO PROVIDING FORCING FOR ONGOING STORMS. THOUGH CONVECTIVELY COOLED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO EASTERN ALABAMA WILL PROVIDE EASTERN LIMIT...AT LEAST NARROW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS IS DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THIS LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR DEVELOPING LOW COULD AID TORNADO DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... 31368772 31788802 32988788 33918776 34838716 35068610 34818549 34278526 33878501 33628515 32968546 32418593 32048630 31558688 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 18:15:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 13:15:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271814.j2RIEIlG001086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271813 GAZ000-FLZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97... VALID 271813Z - 272015Z RISK OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUE WW. STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE AT INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE WITH THIS FORCING...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG BRANCH OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL GEORGIA. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT...SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK GA INTO THE VALDOSTA GA/DOTHAN AL AREAS...LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH MODIFIES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AS LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH BACKED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE RISK FOR TORNADOES IN CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/ACROSS THIS ZONE. BENEATH 35 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30758147 30718217 30858331 31028395 31328499 31838508 32298467 32338387 31878259 31678144 31548115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 18:52:40 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 13:52:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503271851.j2RIpp70015056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271850 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL/ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271850Z - 272115Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN ARRIVING DYNAMIC ASCENT...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO KY. GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED NATURE OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY N/NW OF NRN AL SFC CYCLONE/INVERTED TROUGH...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST ROBUST TSTMS. AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...18Z OBSERVED BNA RAOB/18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 750-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS MIDDLE TN MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 850 MB...AMIDST SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FOR ROTATING ELEVATED STORMS. FURTHER NORTH INTO KY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR EPISODIC THREAT OF HAIL AROUND/ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS. ..GUYER.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35568643 34818794 34938893 35618894 36848813 37668693 38328523 38418376 37938326 37658313 36968411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 20:26:00 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 15:26:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503272025.j2RKPBDE018561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272024 GAZ000-ALZ000-272230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...98... VALID 272024Z - 272230Z INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS ONGOING...RISK OF TORNADOES IS INCREASING...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUE WWS. INCREASING INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON INSTABILITY AXIS IS APPARENT BY NOTABLE INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM IS NOW BELOW 1000 MB...AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS INTO THIS REGION...AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN WARM SECTOR ENHANCES SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WESTERN FLANK OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BIRMINGHAM AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND DOTHAN WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS THEY ENCOUNTER BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 31988703 32658752 33498774 34098793 34868709 33918610 33368593 32818568 32558500 31788515 31568599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 20:57:03 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 15:57:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503272056.j2RKuFcP030163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272055 GAZ000-ALZ000-272300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97... VALID 272055Z - 272300Z AFTER TEMPORARY BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SEVERE THREAT... INCLUDING RISK FOR TORNADOES...STILL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIDED BY SEA BREEZE...CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD ...INLAND ACROSS THE JACKSONVILLE AREA. HOWEVER..FARTHER WEST...IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND BACKING SURFACE FLOW WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH...BOUNDARY IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING AROUND ALBANY GA AND AREAS NORTH OF VALDOSTA. RISK FOR SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 28/00Z...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32278491 32488407 31978290 31288271 30998311 30978357 31268444 31538497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Mar 27 23:09:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 18:09:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503272308.j2RN8LZc015319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272307 NCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...SRN KY...WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99... VALID 272307Z - 280030Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO SRN KY SHORTLY... MODIFIED MOISTURE SURGE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL KY AHEAD OF NEWD-MOVING SFC LOW. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTH OF EXISTING WW...ESPECIALLY SERN PORTIONS OF KY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS REGION...HOWEVER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS MIDDLE TN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KY FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 03/27/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... 36978273 37668539 37138720 35348651 35128427 35288223 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 01:02:58 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 20:02:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503280102.j2S12A75028086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280100 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-280200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100... VALID 280100Z - 280200Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW... SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED SE-NW ACROSS WW TO NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL TN. THIS BOUNDARY HAS PROVED THE MAIN DEMARKATION BETWEEN MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND MODIFIED AIR WITH A DECIDEDLY ELY COMPONENT ACROSS NERN AL INTO ECNTRL GA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR LIFT QUICKLY NEWD...CROSSING THE BOUNDARY INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW ZONE WHERE TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BEFORE UPDRAFTS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT UNTIL LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE REPLACES CURRENT REGIME. ..DARROW.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN... 34908604 33958520 31828238 29758133 29518379 30028532 32318615 34728690 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 02:11:55 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2005 21:11:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503280211.j2S2B6gu027796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280210 KYZ000-TNZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101...99... VALID 280210Z - 280315Z DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS NEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS NERN AL INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF SFC LOW. OTHER CLUSTERS OF STORMS PERSIST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHERE UPDRAFTS APPEAR QUITE ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... 35028609 36558733 38278444 36378483 35168453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 09:09:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 04:09:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503280908.j2S98Oio005631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280906 NCZ000-SCZ000-281030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SRN NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 280906Z - 281030Z TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND NUMBER OVER CNTRL/SRN SC SINCE 08Z. SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EXISTS OVER CNTRL/ERN SC AND A FEW OF THESE PARCELS ARE BEING INGESTED INTO THE STORMS. TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ELEVATED AND THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PROBABLY RANGES FROM 1500-2000 FEET THICK PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS. THUS...DESPITE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...THE PROBABILITY OF DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION TO THE GROUND IS LOW...BUT NOT NECESSARILY NON-ZERO. SO...AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... BUT RISK IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A CONVECTIVE WEATHER WATCH. AS THE STORMS MOVE FARTHER NE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EVEN WEAKER THAN FARTHER SW...SO THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NC. ..RACY.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32578093 33918099 34838125 35627944 34797743 33417737 31887991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 12:57:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 07:57:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503281256.j2SCuwUd028336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281256 NCZ000-VAZ000-281430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281256Z - 281430Z INTERESTING SCENARIO HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS ERN NC THIS MORNING. TREMENDOUS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VCNTY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN NC WAS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WITH MORE THAN 30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG THE COAST MOST OF THE MORNING AND A FEW CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OVER SERN NC. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 14Z AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...A SUPERCELL NEAR KCHS SPLIT EARLIER IN THE MORNING WITH THE LEFT-MOVING MEMBER MOVING NWD AT NEAR 80 KTS THROUGH THE KRDU AREA WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. STORM MORPHOLOGY WAS RATHER COMPLICATED WITH BOTH ANTICYCLONIC AND CYCLONIC LOW-MIDLEVEL ROTATIONS DURING ITS LIFE CYCLE. OTHER STORM SPLITS MAY OCCUR AND A HAIL THREAT COULD EXTEND NWD INTO SRN VA THROUGH MID-MORNING. ATTM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IF CELLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPSWING IN ORGANIZATION...ONE MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33917797 34997876 36887846 36827597 34647550 33567701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Mar 28 19:19:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 14:19:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503281918.j2SJIO9f023594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281917 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CST MON MAR 28 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...MD...DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281917Z - 282115Z SEVERAL SHORT-LINES OF CONVECTION ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS ERN VA AND WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND/OR HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A LOW ACROSS SCNTRL VA. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LOW WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 70 KT WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED ROTATING STORMS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN VA INTO MD THIS AFTERNOON. VAD WIND PROFILES IN MD SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. IN ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/28/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 36897597 37037701 37507785 38087801 38417772 38757701 38937619 38887546 38527501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 01:34:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 20:34:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503300133.j2U1XqB6022586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300132 NEZ000-KSZ000-300300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 300132Z - 300300Z ...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING... STRONG ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET HAS SPREAD NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NE-SW ACROSS NEB. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LBF INDICATES VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SFC-6KM...WITH LOWER 40S DEW POINTS YIELDING CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND SPREAD NEWD...MAINLY TO THE WEST-NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY WHERE ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...APPARENTLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY CAPPED AIR MASS. LATEST THINKING IS A FEW STRONG STORMS...SOME PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WILL SPREAD NEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NO WW IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40780087 42089986 42279783 41529739 40619863 39689980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 03:02:20 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2005 22:02:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503300301.j2U31OeA010534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300300 KSZ000-OKZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 300300Z - 300430Z ...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND OK... STRONG FRONTAL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FORCING PARCELS THROUGH CAPPING INVERSION FROM SCNTRL PORTIONS OF KS...SWD INTO CNTRL OK. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ONGOING ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE THE HAIL/WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SCNTRL KS WHERE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35299782 36529766 38369818 39499736 39239628 37249622 35579669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 12:05:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 07:05:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301204.j2UC4HeH001370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301203 MNZ000-IAZ000-301400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA AND SCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301203Z - 301400Z TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA AND SCNTRL MN. THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT THE STRONG UPPER LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NERN KS WITH AN ENHANCED JET STREAK CURVING NEWD THROUGH WRN MO. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE MO RVR AND RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT VCNTY KOMA MAY BE THE START OF A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF STORMS. 00Z WRF AND 09Z RUC AGREE IN TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MO RVR BY 12Z...WITH STORMS THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN IA AND SCNTRL MN. A SMALL WARM SECTOR HAS EVOLVED OVER THIS AREA AND GIVEN MID 50S/MID 40S TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS... MUCAPE OF AROUND 750 J/KG IS LIKELY IN PLACE. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCREASING TSTM THREAT. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND GIVEN THE STEEPENING MID-TROP LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP...CONGEAL AND BEGIN TO ORIENT NORMAL TO THE MEAN WIND VECTORS. TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD LATER THIS MORNING INTO SCNTRL IA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM AND THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS FARTHER TO THE EAST. ..RACY.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41089578 42369615 42849645 45179483 45149343 44079314 42689357 41589395 40689483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:42:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:42:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301641.j2UGfiPZ008868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301640Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:47:54 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:47:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301646.j2UGktMt012721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301646 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301646Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:52:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:52:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301651.j2UGpcgH016324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301650 IAZ000-MNZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301650Z - 301815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN IA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN IL ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0 C/KM FROM NRN MO TO NCNTRL IA AND 850 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40649423 40959486 41269537 41809537 43469493 44289446 44229258 43649251 40919342 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:56:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:56:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301655.j2UGte5L020085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301640Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 16:59:46 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 11:59:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301658.j2UGwlGh022849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301646 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301646Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:00:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:00:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301659.j2UGxeih023512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301650 IAZ000-MNZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301650Z - 301815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN IA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN IL ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0 C/KM FROM NRN MO TO NCNTRL IA AND 850 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40649423 40959486 41269537 41809537 43469493 44289446 44229258 43649251 40919342  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:05:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301704.j2UH4qwD028097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301640Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:10:04 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:10:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301709.j2UH95F0031850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301646 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...NWRN IL AND SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301646Z - 301845Z A WW WILL ISSUED SOON FOR THE AREA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 16Z OBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. CONVECTION OVER NERN MO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THIS LINE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY WELL DEFINED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NERN MO SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43108916 43249055 43479218 40319329 39728997  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 17:15:13 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 12:15:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301714.j2UHEEed003383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301650 IAZ000-MNZ000-301815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IA/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301650Z - 301815Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN IA. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW MOVING QUICKLY NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN IL ACROSS SRN IA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F. WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ADEQUATE FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS STEEP 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 9.0 C/KM FROM NRN MO TO NCNTRL IA AND 850 MB FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40649423 40959486 41269537 41809537 43469493 44289446 44229258 43649251 40919342  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 18:10:14 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 13:10:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301809.j2UI9Fsi012824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301808 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301808Z - 302015Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INITIATE ACROSS WRN IL AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH AN HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NWD INTO IL WITH UPPER 50S F TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS IN SRN IL. AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ACROSS THE STATE...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM ABOUT 40 KT TO 65 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...AS CELLS INITIATE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN IL...RAPID SUPERCELL FORMATION SHOULD OCCUR. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT DUE TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL MAKE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 37968984 39079073 39829067 40708985 41038913 41018838 40618767 40008748 38688753 38038777 37588841 37688906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 19:16:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 14:16:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301915.j2UJFG2R001608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301914 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-302015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN IA...SCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103... VALID 301914Z - 302015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW TIME /20Z/ WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTING OVER NCENTRAL/NERN IA AND FAR SCENTRAL MN...AHEAD OF SFC/UPPER LOW TRACK. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NCENTRAL/NERN IA AHEAD OF 990 SFC LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF DSM. SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS NCENTRAL IA INTO SCENTRAL MN. WEST OF THIS FRONT...DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED TO THE NE OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO NERN IA BY 21Z. DEGREE OF SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES. THERE MAY BE A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NERN PORTION OF WW 103 WHERE A SVR THREAT WILL EXIST BEYOND 20Z FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT...AND TOR WW 104 JUST EAST OF THIS AREA...WW 103 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN IA. FARTHER NORTH IN SERN MN...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED THAT WOULD ALSO INCLUDE PARTS OF WCENTRAL WI. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41639370 42009413 42909381 44369320 44789175 44709043 43979045 43659227 41619313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 19:25:50 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 14:25:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503301924.j2UJOoK8009001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301923 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NW IL AND FAR NE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104... VALID 301923Z - 302100Z SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW 104. THE STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS WW 104 DUE TO SFC HEATING AND AN APPROACHING 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE NORTH OF I-80 IN ERN IA AND NORTH OF I-74 ACROSS NRN IL DUE TO SMALLER SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-2 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 9.0 C/KM...WILL ALSO HELP TRANSFER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SFC...CREATING A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40099154 41119269 41899276 43389208 43689192 43679019 43678888 43438855 41658925 40208988 40079020 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 20:02:48 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 15:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302001.j2UK1nvK007366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302000 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-302030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SRN/CENTRAL WI...SERN MN AND ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...104... VALID 302000Z - 302030Z DUE TO ONGOING SVR THREAT OVER NERN IA DEVELOPING INTO SERN MN/SWRN WI AND SVR THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS ERN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW 104 BEYOND 22Z /WW 104 EXPIRATION TIME/...A NEW TOR WW WBIS THAT WILL REPLACE WW/S 103 AND 104. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41639370 42009413 42909381 44369320 44789175 44709043 43979045 43659227 41619313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 21:09:49 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 16:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302108.j2UL8qqM026864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302106 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-302300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302106Z - 302300Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BEFORE 00Z. THUS A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 23Z. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS AIDED IN A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN AR. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS REMOVED FROM THIS STRONG ASCENT BY ABOUT 50-100 MILES AS EVIDENT BY CU FIELD OVER THE LOW MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL CINH REMAINS...ABOUT 25 J/KG...BUT ETAKF SOUNDINGS WHICH SEEM TO BE VERIFYING BEST AT 20Z WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S/DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S...INDICATED THAT CONTINUED HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE ANY REMAINING CINH BEFORE 23Z. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN TANDEM WITH A 2 MB/2 HR PRESSURE FALL MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR JONESBORO AR TO 30 EAST OF SHREVEPORT LA. IF SFC BASED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH 50-60 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK WHEN LOW LEVEL RH VALUES/DEWPTS INCREASE AND LCL HEIGHTS DECREASE. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 35049020 34439127 33639207 32629324 32279331 32089312 32049258 32719113 33689001 34788945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 21:20:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 16:20:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302119.j2ULJk7m001207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302118 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-302315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105... VALID 302118Z - 302315Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW 105 OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS TRACK NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN IL. OVER IL AND WRN IND...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD WITH AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUPERCELL APPROACHING THE I-39 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BLOOMINGTON AND ROCKFORD. THIS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL AND OTHER SUPERCELLS SHOULD AFFECT THE CHICAGO AREA BY 00Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG)...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN... 39138916 40668892 41568922 42088977 42538954 42578882 42468802 42208748 41428707 40538695 39648715 38918764 38738830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 21:56:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 16:56:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302155.j2ULtSY3026786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302154 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-302300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...CENTRAL/SRN WI...NERN IA/NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106... VALID 302154Z - 302300Z ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER WW 106...MAINLY WITH LEAD SUPERCELLS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SERN/ECENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS. FARTHER WEST...LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO THREAT HAS LESSENED...BUT A SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR SERN MN..SWRN/CENTRAL WI AND NWRN IL AHEAD OF THIS LINEAR AS STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A RAIN COOLED AIRMASS BEHIND THIS LINE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT IS WANING OVER NERN IA...FAR SWRN WI/FAR NWRN IL. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER DODGE AND WRN FOND DU LAC CO/S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE OF NERN WI/LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF ECENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT HOUR. PRIOR TO MOVING INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL INTERACTION WITH NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT HOUR. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX... 41838887 42748762 43848890 44828989 45619071 44569252 44259261 42809159 41719032 41278956 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Mar 30 23:25:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 18:25:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503302324.j2UNOqQS013071@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302324 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-310130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN IL...WRN IND AND SWRN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105... VALID 302324Z - 310130Z GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF WW 106...WHERE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN CHI METRO AREA/NERN IL AND FAR NWRN IN THROUGH 02Z. FARTHER SOUTH...LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE BE PRODUCE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND A MORE LIMITED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS ERN IL AND WCENTRAL IND. ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 105 BEFORE 01Z. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN MI AFTER WW EXPIRATION TIME...BUT DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ENOUGH OF A SVR THREAT FOR A NEW WW. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH RECENT LOT VWP DATA INDICATING 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 300 J/KG WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER TORNADO THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 105 VALID TIME /02Z/ WILL REMAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS HEIGHTS AROUND 1 KM. FARTHER SOUTH IN WW 105...A PREDOMINANT NUMBER OF LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF TORNADOES. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM STL TO JUST WEST OF SPI MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL ISO SVR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN AROUND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 42428785 41368876 39988965 38988987 38458880 38528763 42168603 42918601 42858733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 00:49:23 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 19:49:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310048.j2V0mPrO026214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310047 MIZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310047Z - 310145Z SVR WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA SHORTLY. LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS CURRENTLY LK MI WILL MOVE INTO WRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LINEAR STRUCTURE EXHIBITED ON RADAR COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN THIS LINE. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR... 42158631 43898643 44248635 44278547 44198480 43038476 42118498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:15:07 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:15:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310114.j2V1E8mb008625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310111 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310111Z - 310215Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:17:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:17:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310116.j2V1G8bU009640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310115 COR INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310115Z - 310215Z CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ERN IL/WRN IND IN AREAS AFFECTED ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:17:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:17:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310116.j2V1GGxf009696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310111 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310111Z - 310215Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:18:34 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:18:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310117.j2V1Havn010192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310115 COR INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-310215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN KY/SERN MO AND WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... VALID 310115Z - 310215Z CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF ERN IL/WRN IND IN AREAS AFFECTED ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE SOUTH OF WW 105...ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SERN MO WITH MOVEMENT INTO FAR WRN KY/SWRN IND. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 105 WHICH WOULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 02Z. FARTHER NORTH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS A NEW WW TO REPLACE WW 105 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 105 BY 0130Z. WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL INTO WRN IND THROUGH 06Z...SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER CINH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 40-50 KT DUE TO LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER SOUTH...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY COOL CLOUD TOPS OVER SERN MO SOUTH OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN/CENTRAL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INHIBITION AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE REPLACEMENT WW FOR 105 IS EXPECTED TO COVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 41548834 37419046 36599038 36418926 36598792 37188767 41738619  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:36:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:36:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310135.j2V1ZqWZ020522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310134 ILZ000-WIZ000-310200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106... VALID 310134Z - 310200Z WW 106 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. SMALL TEMPORAL/SPATIAL THREAT FOR SVR WILL EXIST WITH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS COMING OUT OF FAR NRN IL INTO WALWORTH...RACINE..KENOSHA AND MILWAUKEE CO/S IN SERN WI DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AS EVIDENT BY 20 DEG SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREAD. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF RAPID NEWD MOTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE LAST REMAINING SVR THREAT OUT OF SERN WI BY 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... 42478808 42628863 43138866 43348826 43228775 42578766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 01:57:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 20:57:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310156.j2V1up28032200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310156 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN INTO MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310156Z - 310330Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT FROM VICINITY OF THE MS RIVER EWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NWRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0130Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER POINSETT..CROSS AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES IN NERN AR NEAR INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS ALSO DEEPENING FARTHER TO THE S FROM AROUND 40 NW OF JAN TO NEAR TUP WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 00Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CAP AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. HOWEVER...AIR MASS DRIES CONSIDERABLY NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN PER 00Z BNA SOUNDING. 00Z NAM DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH 31/06Z WILL OCCUR NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. STORMS MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NWD WITH EXTENT OWING TO COMPARATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR DE-COUPLING. NONETHELESS...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34009050 34579068 36098973 36508922 36408805 36398727 35718670 34918687 33748746 33758804 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 02:57:15 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 21:57:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310256.j2V2uEuG031450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310255 ALZ000-FLZ000-310430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310255Z - 310430Z ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD OUT OF WW 107 BETWEEN 03 AND 04Z. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER CNTRL AL. AS OF 0235Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MS INTO W-CNTRL AL...GENERALLY SHIFTING NEWD. STRONGEST STORM ON SERN FLANK OF COMPLEX OVER CLARKE COUNTY AL AS EXHIBITED PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION FOR THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LLJ AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS W/CNTRL AL OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING CONTINUED EWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A FEW STORMS ALONG SRN/SWRN FLANK OF COMPLEX MAY REMAIN MORE SURFACE-BASED OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MS INTO SWRN AL. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... 32848741 33298709 33548643 32878584 31988597 31178652 30698723 30568789 30788828 31088831 31368752 31698752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:13:09 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:13:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310412.j2V4C8nR003829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310411 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-310545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS INTO W-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 107... VALID 310411Z - 310545Z THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN PORTIONS WW 107 AREA...GENERALLY N OF I-20 AND E 0F I-55. AS OF 0345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL AL MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AXIS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. CORRESPONDING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THUS LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER S...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOISTER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33619031 33628738 30788870 30668934 31038935 31028984 31369007 31389133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:14:25 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:14:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310413.j2V4DO3n004723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310412 MIZ000-310515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... VALID 310412Z - 310515Z WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE BUT IS DECREASING WITH TIME. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES RISING PRESSURES AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...AND RADAR REPRESENTATION IS POOR. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 42138522 42228682 44168587 44098449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:18:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:18:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310417.j2V4HA8I006043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310411 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-310545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS INTO W-CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 107... VALID 310411Z - 310545Z THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN PORTIONS WW 107 AREA...GENERALLY N OF I-20 AND E 0F I-55. AS OF 0345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL AL MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AXIS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. CORRESPONDING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THUS LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER S...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOISTER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 33619031 33628738 30788870 30668934 31038935 31028984 31369007 31389133  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 04:18:27 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 23:18:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310417.j2V4HQgX006130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310412 MIZ000-310515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... VALID 310412Z - 310515Z WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE BUT IS DECREASING WITH TIME. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES RISING PRESSURES AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...AND RADAR REPRESENTATION IS POOR. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. ..JEWELL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 42138522 42228682 44168587 44098449  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 05:46:26 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 00:46:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310545.j2V5jP5S014324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310544 GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-310715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND NW GA...SE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310544Z - 310715Z A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS AL TOWARD WRN/NWRN GA AND SE TN. THIS CONVECTION HAS A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL REPORTS...BUT INSTABILITY WEAKENS TO THE NE OF AL. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR TO THE E/NE OF WW 110 IN AL...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..THOMPSON.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX... 32248427 32168498 32688526 33938541 35028537 35668493 35758439 34508390 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 06:54:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 01:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310653.j2V6rws2010460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310653 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-310830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL AND WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310653Z - 310830Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF SRN MS INTO SRN/CNTRL AL. 05Z JACKSON SOUNDING STILL SHOWED 2310 J/KG MUCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 52 KTS. LATEST RADAR SHOWED TSTMS BACKBUILDING SWWD FROM WCNTRL AL INTO SCNTRL MS AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILE CONTINUES ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-MS VLY UPPER LOW. FLOW REGIME WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME...BUT AIR MASS REMAINS PRIMED FOR TSTMS. MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP FROM SUSTAINED TSTMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LARGELY ELEVATED...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN ROOT LOWER INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN GA WITH WIND/HAIL THREATS POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31439090 32658962 33118858 33388734 33068597 32718445 32288425 31978571 31348729 30938896 31089081 31179101 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 08:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 03:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503310809.j2V89KuL005794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310808 TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-310945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN AND SERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 111... VALID 310808Z - 310945Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A DRIER WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN TN AND NWRN MS AS LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID-MS UPPER LOW. THIN BAND OF TSTMS EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD REGION OF TSTMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIN RIBBON OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55F EXTENDS NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. MAIN AXIS OF THE LLJ IS BEGINNING TO VEER AND IS BECOMING INTERCEPTED BY INCREASING TSTMS FARTHER S. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IS RAPIDLY CLOSING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. MEANWHILE...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED STORMS FARTHER EWD ARE BEING FED FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS UPSTREAM. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER FROM THE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND PROBABLY WEAKEN OVER THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS IN A FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ACCELERATED DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE LOCAL WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE COALFIELDS OF SERN KY AND THE ERN TN MNTS. OTHERWISE...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34248809 35718750 36918591 37288387 36078381 34188551 34168612 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 11:37:01 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 06:37:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311136.j2VBa1cc024636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311134 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-311330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL AND SMALL PART OF WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112... VALID 311134Z - 311330Z CLASSIC BACKBUILDING/TRAINING MCS SCENARIO HAS EVOLVED OVER SERN MS TO WRN GA THIS MORNING. VAD WIND PROFILE AT MXX SHOWS A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL KINEMATIC PROFILE AOA 1KM WITH SPEED SHEAR REMAINING WEAK. INFLOW REGION TO THE STORMS RESIDES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WHERE HIGH THETA-E PARCELS ARE CONTINUING TO FEED THE UPDRAFTS. SET-UP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME SERN MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL AND WRN GA WHERE STORMS TRAIN. MEANWHILE...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE/BOW AS THEY MATURE AND ORIENT N-S...OR NORMAL TO THE MEAN 2-6 KM WIND VECTORS. SO NOT ONLY IS HAIL A RISK...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A THREAT. A CORRIDOR FROM 45 E KLUL-KAUO SEEMS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH 14Z. NOT ONLY WILL THE STORM ORIENTATION W.R.T. FLOW REGIME FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FARTHER EAST MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER SATURATES. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 31088928 32788916 33918717 34008507 32508493 32048510 31518649 31118693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 12:54:59 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 07:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311253.j2VCrvUe029746@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311253 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-311400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...CNTRL/SRN GA...WRN SC...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112... VALID 311253Z - 311400Z WS 112 EXPIRES AT 14Z. THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS THROUGH LATE MORNING CNTRL/SRN AL INTO GA AND ANOTHER WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. 09Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT MAIN CORE OF THE H85 JET SHIFTS NEWD INTO ERN AL AND WRN GA THROUGH 15Z. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY AS HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT H5 TROUGH. THIS MAY LESSEN THE SEVERE/TSTM RISK WITH TIME THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN MS. BUT...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SRN AL AND PARTS OF GA TO CONTINUE THE HAIL/WIND RISKS THROUGH LATE MORNING. ..RACY.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 34088639 33918487 33808344 33838198 33468156 32548219 31968403 30998616 30748823 30848917 31508922 32098888 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 16:35:06 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 11:35:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311634.j2VGY4wP032390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311632 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-311800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 113... VALID 311632Z - 311800Z LIMITED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG SQUALL LINE FROM SRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL GA. HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ALSO PERSIST... ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AL ALONG SWRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO EXIT SERN PARTS OF WW 113. WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SINCE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW FARTHER SE. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SRN AL NEWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA MOVING SEWD AT 20 TO 25 KT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE LIMITING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SEWD WITH THE MEAN STEERING FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE LINE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A TENDENCY FOR MANY OF THE CELLS TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE LINE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH PORTION OF LINE BETWEEN WILCOX AND LAURENS COUNTIES IN SERN GA WHERE DOWNSTREAM TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LARGER. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS ALSO MORE LIMITED IN THIS REGION. THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS HIGHER OVER SRN AL ALONG SLOWER MOVING SWRN PARTS OF LINE WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRAIN LONGER. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31428545 30828741 31768744 32098628 32528443 33298298 33868243 33138230 32438250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 17:36:51 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 12:36:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311735.j2VHZnqR015080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311734 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 311734Z - 312130Z MOD TO HVY SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD OUT OF SERN CO/FAR NERN NM INTO FAR WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE RATON MESA THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...1/2 TO 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT /10 MB OVER 150 MILES/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE NWRN TX/OK PANHANDLE THROUGH 21Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NNWLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NW SIDE OF MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OVER SERN CO...WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM N-S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEW AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOP COOLING/CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER SWRN KS WILL ROTATE INTO THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 5500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4000-4500 FT BY 21Z AS DYNAMIC COOLING ENSUES WITH HVY PRECIP. THUS A CHANGEOVER TO MOD-HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NERN NM...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN UPSLOPE REGION OF THE RATON MESA /LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO...NCENTRAL/NERN COLFAX COUNTY NM/ THROUGH 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 38250329 38250400 37840445 37090463 36740470 36180405 35820349 35630287 35980211 36790193 37740213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 17:42:43 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 12:42:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311741.j2VHffhI019330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311740 MSZ000-LAZ000-311945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND EXTREME SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311740Z - 311945Z SERN LA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. LATE THIS MORNING...A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MS WWD INTO SERN LA. THE SERN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD WHILE THE WRN PART OVER SRN LA HAS STALLED. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT. MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY. WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER AND MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29499044 29959239 30969253 31409090 30928888 29948909 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 18:10:21 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 13:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503311809.j2VI9J2v008204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311808 TXZ000-312015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311808Z - 312015Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF SAT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED JUST NW OF SAT. A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS NE-SW FROM THE LOW FROM SE OF DRT TO NEAR AUS. ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS LIMITED TO BELOW 850 MB...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MINIMAL CINH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW BY 20Z. THE DECREASING CINH FIELDS ARE NOTED BY MORE VIGOROUS CUMULUS GROWTH ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE LAST HOUR. HOWEVER...VERY DRY MID LEVELS EVIDENT BY WV IMAGERY WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO UPDRAFTS...AND MAY LIMIT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS THE SHORT TERM MODEL SUITES SUGGEST WITH LACK OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE AND STORMS DO INDEED INITIATE...THE DEGREE OF MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX... 30549797 30159922 29680032 29200042 28799941 29149829 29529725 30049716 30359736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 20:17:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 15:17:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312016.j2VKGAaj026119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312015 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...EXTREME SW AL THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 312015Z - 312215Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH PORTION OF THE LINE OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SW AL. THIS AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE GA COAST WWD THROUGH SRN GA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN GA WWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PARTIAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY S OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER SW GA...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OBSERVED WHERE THE LINE INTERSECTS THE E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...AND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. FARTHER SW...THE LINE HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS PART OF THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE LINE WILL SUPPORT TRAINING/HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30778793 31508369 31688173 31068144 30608208 30408341 30388636 30328796 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 21:01:45 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 16:01:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312100.j2VL0gqW002965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312059 OKZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312059Z - 312300Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM WCENTRAL INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK BETWEEN 22-00Z. OVERALL THREAT AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE SUFFICIENT THAT A SVR WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 22Z. RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXTENDED ALONG AN AXIS FROM ADM TO OUN TO CSM...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 70 AND DEWPTS WERE IN THE 38-44 DEGREE RANGE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND 1 INCH. DEGREE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED WITH SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WCENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OK BETWEEN 22-00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 34209592 34759621 35349710 35759825 35899888 35869945 35689980 35379980 35099965 34689904 34089757 33969705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 21:30:22 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 16:30:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312129.j2VLTJ8T029497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312127 MSZ000-LAZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312127Z - 312300Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. A STATIONARY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF MOBILE AL WWD THROUGH SRN LA JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS...THEN FARTHER WWD TO JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES. THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS HAVE LIKELY DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE TOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LA. MOREOVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29458847 29569042 29719212 31119201 31259091 31078915 30868854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 22:45:37 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 17:45:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312244.j2VMiZNk030762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312243 LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312243Z - 312345Z ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. A WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 23Z FOR MUCH OF E/NE TX. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN TX UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT BY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOIST SECTOR EAST OF I-35 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. TWO SCENARIOS FOR SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 1) HIGH BASED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN DRY AIR WILL MOVE EAST INTO MOIST AXIS OVER ERN TX AND BECOME ROOTED IN MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. OR 2) THE FORCING FOR THE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACTS ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH/SFC LOW OVER NERN TX AND AID IN SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH AND NW-SE WARM FRONT OVER ECENTRAL/NERN TX. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH AROUND 03Z WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THUS GIVEN A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF MAINLY WIND/HAIL THREAT...WW WILL LIKELY BE SVR. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31119716 31979718 32829704 33779659 33779585 33509454 33099425 32039399 30829411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:21:39 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:21:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312320.j2VNKi8W023964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312317 LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312317Z - 010115Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AUS/SAT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 115. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU NOW FROM AUS TO SAT ALONG SFC TROUGH. INCREASING WNWLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE/TROUGH WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...THAT GIVEN WEAK CINH...ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT HOUR. AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY DISPLACED FROM STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING/COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND GIVEN WEAK STORM RELATIVELY INFLOW INTO THIS AREA...CONVECTION MAY END UP WEAKENING WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET BEFORE APPROACHING THE HOU METRO AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31119716 31979718 32829704 33779659 33779585 33509454 33099425 32039399 30829411 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:30:10 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:30:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312329.j2VNT7lV029975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312328 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312328Z - 010030Z NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEE-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:32:12 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:32:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312331.j2VNVAAJ031192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312330 COR ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312330Z - 010030Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:32:16 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312331.j2VNVDkC031258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312317 LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312317Z - 010115Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AUS/SAT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 115. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU NOW FROM AUS TO SAT ALONG SFC TROUGH. INCREASING WNWLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE/TROUGH WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE...THAT GIVEN WEAK CINH...ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT HOUR. AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY DISPLACED FROM STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING/COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND GIVEN WEAK STORM RELATIVELY INFLOW INTO THIS AREA...CONVECTION MAY END UP WEAKENING WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET BEFORE APPROACHING THE HOU METRO AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..CROSBIE.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31119716 31979718 32829704 33779659 33779585 33509454 33099425 32039399 30829411  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:34:53 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:34:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312333.j2VNXpBW000882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312328 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312328Z - 010030Z NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEE-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Mar 31 23:36:38 2005 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:36:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200503312335.j2VNZZEP001988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312330 COR ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114... VALID 312330Z - 010030Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BTR TO W OF MOB. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTM/SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES PER LOCAL VWPS SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 03/31/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31049187 31589149 31569003 31508860 30628839 29778885 30059180