[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301746 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-301945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301746Z - 301945Z

...AREA OF STORMS ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO IS BEING MONITORED FOR
INTENSIFICATION...

SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN ERN OK PANHANDLE
THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SRN IA. HOWEVER...AREA OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
ACROSS NE KS/NRN MO HAS RESULTED IN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY...WHICH LIES IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF
SALINA AND EMPORIA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING. SOUTH OF
THE KS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER
90S...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM TOPEKA
AS WELL AS KS PROFILER DATA SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED
TO 35-40 KT. INITIAL THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT AS STORMS BECOME MORE DEEPLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. 

WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND 21Z.

..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

38939168 38259446 37869805 38799865 40079858 40839735
40979505 41019281 40819146 40439110 39629099 

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