[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272302 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MN...IA...W-CENTRAL/SWRN
WI...EXTREME NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...

VALID 272302Z - 280100Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF IA CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT OVER MN.  CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR EXTENSION OF THREAT EWD OVER ERN IA AND ACROSS MS RIVER...AND
NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LATTER AREA IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE IS ANALYZED FROM MEEKER COUNTY CONVECTION
SEWD THROUGH FARIBAULT COUNTY AT 23Z.  MOST MN ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS LINE...W OF WHICH SFC FLOW VEERS AND
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY.  CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS
OVER NRN AND SRN EXTREMES OF WW WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH REMAINDER LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...AND
OCCASIONAL HAIL.  SRN CLUSTER IS WELL DEFINED AS BOW ECHO INVOF
DSM...MOVING EWD 30-35 KT.  INFLOW-LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY DISTANCE FROM SFC-BASED INFLOW...SINCE
LATEST REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE GUST FRONT CONSISTENTLY
10-15 NM AHEAD OF REFLECTIVITY CORES.  ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY -- FROM ACTIVITY ACROSS HARDIN/FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IA...INTERSECTS SRN GUST FRONT OVER STORY COUNTY AS OF 23Z. 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z INVOF THAT BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION AS IT PROPAGATES EWD/ESEWD OVER PORTIONS MARSHALL/TAMA
COUNTIES.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF GUST FRONTS REMAINS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE
-- WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPES APCHG 3000 J/KG AND
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING BOTH INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS AND
HAIL.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW SURGES MAY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF EXISTING
CONVECTION...AND NECESSITY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE ANOTHER WW IS
NECESSARY.

..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

40969507 41359480 41509437 41539417 41969416 42249395
42619398 44439529 45479409 45449154 45159131 43339046
42449018 41999007 40959074 40669217 40869459 

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