[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272110 
MTZ000-WYZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SEWD INTO SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272110Z - 272315Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED AMPLE
HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER
CENTRAL/SCENTRAL/SERN MT MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SCT SVR THREAT. THIS
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER WRN MT AS IT MOVES INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE.
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FURTHER SE...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SERN
ID...SWRN MT AND NWRN WY MTNS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
ID WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL MT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GREATER WLY
COMPONENT TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS OVER
SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

44930621 45210954 46241248 47291405 47681418 48381380
48801326 48931174 48541002 46740638 45250509 

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