[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270324 COR
MNZ000-270515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 270324Z - 270515Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z ACROSS NRN
MN...PRIMARILY FROM E OF FAR NEWD TOWARD WRN BOUNDARY WATERS REGION
AND NWD TOWARD MB BORDER.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

RICHLAND COUNTY ND TSTMS ARE SHOWING DECREASING TREND...BUT
FOREGOING AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE OVER ERN PORTIONS WW
533 AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF NWRN MN NOT IN WW.  WELL ORGANIZED LINE
OF SEVERE TSTMS ALSO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD FROM RED RIVER REGION
AFTER 5Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. REF
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THAT
ACTIVITY.

ZONALLY ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 315Z FROM
E-CENTRAL ND ACROSS BJI AREA...MAY FILL IN AND EXPAND EWD AS IT
MOVES NEWD TOWARD CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF
SFC WARM FRONT...IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA...AND ATOP INCREASINGLY
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER.  EXPECT MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ TO SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS.  RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATE EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX RAOB SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
MUCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE...WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

48319244 47839251 47359320 47289358 46709417 46509595
46659641 49019644 48989512 49389510 49359493 49329482
48919469 48799467 48729451 48719435 48689423 48659417
48619381 48529379 48529348 48609345 48629322 48619299
48519262 

WWWW