[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260044 
NEZ000-COZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260044Z - 260245Z

ISOLATED SVR STORM THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OUT OF NWRN KS IN THE NEXT
HOUR...AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL KS.


RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RISE/FALL COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NERN CO/FAR NWRN KS WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT INTO SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT /PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. RECENT TRENDS IN
THE GDA PROFILER DATA AND GLD VWP DATA PRIOR TO OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT
SYSTEM GENERATED LOW LEVEL JET HAD DEVELOPED. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO AID IN SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF 850 WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...AMT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SVR WILL MOVE INTO FAR SERN PORTIONS OF WW
526.

..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

40590206 41490187 41920110 41899902 41719845 41379816
40689801 40319832 40039899 40000195 

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