[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252309 
NDZ000-MTZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...PORTIONS NWRN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 525...

VALID 252309Z - 260115Z

LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- INDICATED NW OLF AS OF 23Z -- IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS
ROOSEVELT/DANIELS/SHERIDAN COUNTIES MT.  ACTIVITY MAY ACCELERATE AND
DEVELOP BOW ECHO...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NOW BEING PRIMARY  CONCERN. 
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP NWRN ND -- MAINLY FROM ISN AREA NWD
-- BEFORE MOVING INTO SRN SK.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS PORTIONS MCCONE/GARFIELD
COUNTIES MT AS WELL...AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
WRN ND.

CONVECTION MOVING NEWD FROM MUSSELSHELL COUNTY MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
TORNADO POTENTIAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WRN
ROSEBUD OR S-CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES.  HOWEVER RELATIVELY FRESHLY
PRODUCED...COLD AND PROGRESSIVE CHARACTER OF OUTFLOW SHOULD LIMIT
DURATION OF THIS THREAT.  OTHER...MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION INVOF
MT/WY BORDER MAY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTER AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS
SERN MT...IN ENVIRONMENT OF BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS E-NE OF SFC LOW. 
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS AREA IS N OF SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...LIFTED
PARCELS REMAIN SFC BASED OVER MOST OF PRE-STORM AIR MASS IN ERN MT. 
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INVOF MLS APPEAR TO REPRESENT THIS
ENVIRONMENT REASONABLY...WITH 50-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND WITH
LOW 60S SFC DEW POINT CONTRIBUTING TO ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE.  DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LCL SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME AS ANVIL SHADOWING
AND LOWER SUN ANGLE CUT SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT.

..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

45020888 49000842 48970386 45020451 

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