[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252035 
IAZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 252035Z - 252230Z

ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER WRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND MAY
BECOME SFC BASED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION
AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 

MID LEVEL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER ERN NEB WILL MOVE INTO
WRN AND CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OMA VWP AND FAIRBURY
PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AS SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NOTED ON DSM RADAR CONTINUES TO LIFTS NWD NORTH OF I-80. GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR
AND WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL BE
MARGINAL.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE
WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...IF
SCT TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING W-E ORIENTED
BOUNDARY THEN WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.90
INCHES...THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL.

..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42959352 42949486 42489571 42099594 41849591 41489565
41249488 41199388 41209318 41379248 41859189 42279190
42989246 

WWWW