[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250328 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-250530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / SWRN ND / EXTREME NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250328Z - 250530Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
EVENING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH 30-35 KT SELY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT FROM SERN MT INTO SWRN ND / NWRN
SD THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WHILE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
IS STABLE...ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KG OBSERVED ON RAP SOUNDING INDICATE STORMS
MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITHIN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD. MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTANT 50-60
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST ELEVATED SEVERE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE
STABLE.

..JEWELL.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

47700222 46270198 45650374 45370808 45800847 46850814
47230599 48030398