[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240052 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-240215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/WCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514...

VALID 240052Z - 240215Z

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE WATCH 514 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z.

ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF WW
514...NAMELY ACROSS WRN/WCNTRL NEB. 00Z LBF RAOB DEPICTS MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AMIDST DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER TO 700 MB...WITH 1500+ J/KG DCAPE AND CORRESPONDING STRONG
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR LESS
PER RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER/ HAS LEAD TO PROPENSITY FOR STORMS TO
CLUSTER. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING ACROSS FAR SW NEB/NW KS.
FURTHER NORTH...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 514 EITHER VIA MODEST CONVERGENCE INVOF
LEE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...OR PERHAPS AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 06/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

42610198 42990048 42999876 40439932 39529997 39740126
40490188 41140248 

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