[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232050 
NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AZ INTO UT/WRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232050Z - 232245Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ISOLD DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL
AZ...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NRN AZ/UT/WRN CO. 12Z FGZ RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS
SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 1000-1300 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
FLAGSTAFF WSR-88D VAD PORTRAYS 20-25 KTS OF SWLY FLOW ABOVE 3 KM.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR...ISOLD SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

..GUYER.. 06/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

34371226 36311375 38901367 40021085 39410738 37130690
35410851 33770925 33901081 

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